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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250852
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF LOW PRES CENTERS...
ONE OVER FAR S-CENTRAL MN AND A SECOND OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...
CONNECTED BY A WEAVING QUASI-STNRY FRONT. FLOW ALOFT IS DECIDEDLY
MERIDIONAL DUE TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SERN CONUS AND A DEEP UPR LVL LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION DUE TO THIS UPR
LVL SETUP...A LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC
FRONT ALLOWED PLENTY OF LIGHT-MOD RAIN TO SPREAD N OVER THE WFO MPX
CWFA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FNT ALSO LIFTING NWD...PRECIP BEHIND THE
FRONT IS MORE SPARSE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE THRU THE
MRNG HRS. AM CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR AS THE
UPR LVL LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NNE IN CONCERT WITH THE SFC FEATURES...
BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WITH SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE /PWATS AROUND
1.50 INCHES/ WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SETUP OVER THE AREA. THAT
SAID...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THE DRY SLOTTING BY DROPPING POPS TO THE
SLGT-LOW CHC RANGE OVER SRN MN BY MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING THAT
TREND NWD INTO THIS AFTN. THE FLIP SIDE OF HAVING A DRY SLOT AND
POTENTIALLY ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IS THAT THIS WOULD ALLOW
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION TO GROW ANY WORTHWHILE INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS.
PREVAILING THINKING IS THAT THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH OCNL SHWRS LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE GROWTH SO HAVE CONFINED SLGT
CHC TSTM MENTION TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. OVERALL...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PRECIP COVERAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT TSTMS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA...IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING AS THE
UPR LVL LOW LIFTS INTO NRN MN AND THE SFC FEATURES SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
IN TANDEM WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE...
TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED DUE TO THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
REMAINING N AND SOME POTENTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST S DUE TO THE
DRY SLOTTING. THUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A 10-DEGREE OR SO GRADIENT OF
HIGH TEMPS FROM N TO S ACRS THE CWFA TDA...WITH CENTRAL MN HOLDING
IN THE LWR 60S WHILE HIGHS HIT THE LWR 70S NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ONCE THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE CO/KS AREA
AND BRING PRECIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI AS
MID LEVEL OMEGA MAX BECOMES FOCUSED IN THAT REGION ALONG WITH DEEP
SATURATION. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND DESCENT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. FORCING IS NOT GREAT BUT THERE IS SOME LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD HELP PRODUCE HIGHER PRECIP VALUES
THAN THE UNDER QUARTER INCH CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS SURGE TO NEAR 16C. MIX DOWN FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY GAVE TEMPS
IN THE AROUND 80 FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECTING DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE GET BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...SO STILL CARRYING WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WARM AND MOIST SIDE
OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...CANADIAN HIGH STILL ON TRACK TO
DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE FA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR TAF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...WITH IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIRES MODELS CLEAR OUT
THE PRECIP BY MORNING...SO TAPERED OFF THE RAIN IN THE TAFS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND
500FT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BY MORNING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 1700FT CEILINGS...BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 250852
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF LOW PRES CENTERS...
ONE OVER FAR S-CENTRAL MN AND A SECOND OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...
CONNECTED BY A WEAVING QUASI-STNRY FRONT. FLOW ALOFT IS DECIDEDLY
MERIDIONAL DUE TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SERN CONUS AND A DEEP UPR LVL LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION DUE TO THIS UPR
LVL SETUP...A LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC
FRONT ALLOWED PLENTY OF LIGHT-MOD RAIN TO SPREAD N OVER THE WFO MPX
CWFA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FNT ALSO LIFTING NWD...PRECIP BEHIND THE
FRONT IS MORE SPARSE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE THRU THE
MRNG HRS. AM CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR AS THE
UPR LVL LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NNE IN CONCERT WITH THE SFC FEATURES...
BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WITH SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE /PWATS AROUND
1.50 INCHES/ WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SETUP OVER THE AREA. THAT
SAID...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THE DRY SLOTTING BY DROPPING POPS TO THE
SLGT-LOW CHC RANGE OVER SRN MN BY MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING THAT
TREND NWD INTO THIS AFTN. THE FLIP SIDE OF HAVING A DRY SLOT AND
POTENTIALLY ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IS THAT THIS WOULD ALLOW
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION TO GROW ANY WORTHWHILE INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS.
PREVAILING THINKING IS THAT THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH OCNL SHWRS LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE GROWTH SO HAVE CONFINED SLGT
CHC TSTM MENTION TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. OVERALL...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PRECIP COVERAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT TSTMS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA...IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING AS THE
UPR LVL LOW LIFTS INTO NRN MN AND THE SFC FEATURES SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
IN TANDEM WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE...
TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED DUE TO THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
REMAINING N AND SOME POTENTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST S DUE TO THE
DRY SLOTTING. THUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A 10-DEGREE OR SO GRADIENT OF
HIGH TEMPS FROM N TO S ACRS THE CWFA TDA...WITH CENTRAL MN HOLDING
IN THE LWR 60S WHILE HIGHS HIT THE LWR 70S NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ONCE THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE CO/KS AREA
AND BRING PRECIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI AS
MID LEVEL OMEGA MAX BECOMES FOCUSED IN THAT REGION ALONG WITH DEEP
SATURATION. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND DESCENT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. FORCING IS NOT GREAT BUT THERE IS SOME LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD HELP PRODUCE HIGHER PRECIP VALUES
THAN THE UNDER QUARTER INCH CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS SURGE TO NEAR 16C. MIX DOWN FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY GAVE TEMPS
IN THE AROUND 80 FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECTING DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE GET BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...SO STILL CARRYING WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WARM AND MOIST SIDE
OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...CANADIAN HIGH STILL ON TRACK TO
DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE FA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR TAF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...WITH IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIRES MODELS CLEAR OUT
THE PRECIP BY MORNING...SO TAPERED OFF THE RAIN IN THE TAFS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND
500FT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BY MORNING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 1700FT CEILINGS...BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250504
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR TAF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...WITH IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIRES MODELS CLEAR OUT
THE PRECIP BY MORNING...SO TAPERED OFF THE RAIN IN THE TAFS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND
500FT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BY MORNING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 1700FT CEILINGS...BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250504
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR TAF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...WITH IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIRES MODELS CLEAR OUT
THE PRECIP BY MORNING...SO TAPERED OFF THE RAIN IN THE TAFS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND
500FT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BY MORNING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 1700FT CEILINGS...BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 250004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT...BUT IFR CIGS/VISBYS WILL FOLLOW UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LOW CIGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD LIFT CEILINGS TO
MVFR/VFR LEVELS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
SEE MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO FOR MSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND 04Z TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY...SO HOPEFULLY
THIS CAN GET PINNED DOWN IN SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 250004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT...BUT IFR CIGS/VISBYS WILL FOLLOW UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LOW CIGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD LIFT CEILINGS TO
MVFR/VFR LEVELS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
SEE MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO FOR MSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND 04Z TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY...SO HOPEFULLY
THIS CAN GET PINNED DOWN IN SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 242130
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WHAT IS A CERTAINTY IS RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF. RAIN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW WILL BECOME
ANCHORED TONIGHT FROM WC MN TOWARD NW WI...WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ENDING AFTER 6Z FOR RWF AND POSSIBLY MSP. ALSO A CERTAINTY ARE
CIGS GOING UNDER VFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TAFS
ARE PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE IN...AS
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO MAKE A BIT MORE NRN PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT AS A
SFC LOW BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR EAU. WITH THE LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT DIRECTION WILL
GET A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE SREF
FOR DIRECTIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

KMSP...SREF PROBS FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z INCREASE TO ALMOST
100%...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CIGS STARTING OFF MONDAY UNDER 1K FT.
CONFIDENT IN RAIN FALLING AS WELL THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...BUT AFTER
THAT IT MAY BE MOSTLY DRY AT MSP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIP STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG





000
FXUS63 KMPX 242130
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WHAT IS A CERTAINTY IS RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF. RAIN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW WILL BECOME
ANCHORED TONIGHT FROM WC MN TOWARD NW WI...WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ENDING AFTER 6Z FOR RWF AND POSSIBLY MSP. ALSO A CERTAINTY ARE
CIGS GOING UNDER VFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TAFS
ARE PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE IN...AS
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO MAKE A BIT MORE NRN PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT AS A
SFC LOW BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR EAU. WITH THE LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT DIRECTION WILL
GET A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE SREF
FOR DIRECTIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

KMSP...SREF PROBS FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z INCREASE TO ALMOST
100%...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CIGS STARTING OFF MONDAY UNDER 1K FT.
CONFIDENT IN RAIN FALLING AS WELL THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...BUT AFTER
THAT IT MAY BE MOSTLY DRY AT MSP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIP STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241820
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING
WERE TO ONE...REMOVE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE GRIDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS SREF CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBS DO NOT EVEN START
TO SHOW UP UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF MN AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY HEAD
FOR WI. NEXT UP FOR THE GRIDS IS TO DO SOME SIGNIFICANT
RECONFIGURING OF POPS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/MPXWRF WITH ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN SW MISSOURI COMING UP THROUGH WRN WI...WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP STAYS ANCHORED UP OVER CENTRAL MN...SO BIGGEST
CHANGES /IN THE DOWNWARD DIRECTION/ WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SW
QUADRANT OF THE MPX CWA.

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL
BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE
INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL
LOW WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN
ORGANIZED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT
SLOWLY NNE THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE
PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS
AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH
OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL
TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7 THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A
MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A
DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC
CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT
ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN
BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF
HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50 INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT
AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON A
SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL... THE CONTINUED LACK
OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL MITIGATE GOOD
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED
VALUES...ESP OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE
LACK OF INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A
DEGREE OR TWO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY
MON MRNG ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG
DUE TO SLIGHT WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND
DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
55-60 DEGREE RANGE MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA
IS TOUGH THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WHAT IS A CERTAINTY IS RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF. RAIN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW WILL BECOME
ANCHORED TONIGHT FROM WC MN TOWARD NW WI...WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ENDING AFTER 6Z FOR RWF AND POSSIBLY MSP. ALSO A CERTAINTY ARE
CIGS GOING UNDER VFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TAFS
ARE PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE IN...AS
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO MAKE A BIT MORE NRN PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT AS A
SFC LOW BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR EAU. WITH THE LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT DIRECTION WILL
GET A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE SREF
FOR DIRECTIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

KMSP...SREF PROBS FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z INCREASE TO ALMOST
100%...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CIGS STARTING OFF MONDAY UNDER 1K FT.
CONFIDENT IN RAIN FALLING AS WELL THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...BUT AFTER
THAT IT MAY BE MOSTLY DRY AT MSP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIP STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241820
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING
WERE TO ONE...REMOVE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE GRIDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS SREF CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBS DO NOT EVEN START
TO SHOW UP UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF MN AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY HEAD
FOR WI. NEXT UP FOR THE GRIDS IS TO DO SOME SIGNIFICANT
RECONFIGURING OF POPS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/MPXWRF WITH ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN SW MISSOURI COMING UP THROUGH WRN WI...WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP STAYS ANCHORED UP OVER CENTRAL MN...SO BIGGEST
CHANGES /IN THE DOWNWARD DIRECTION/ WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SW
QUADRANT OF THE MPX CWA.

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL
BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE
INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL
LOW WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN
ORGANIZED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT
SLOWLY NNE THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE
PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS
AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH
OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL
TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7 THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A
MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A
DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC
CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT
ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN
BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF
HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50 INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT
AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON A
SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL... THE CONTINUED LACK
OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL MITIGATE GOOD
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED
VALUES...ESP OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE
LACK OF INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A
DEGREE OR TWO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY
MON MRNG ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG
DUE TO SLIGHT WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND
DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
55-60 DEGREE RANGE MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA
IS TOUGH THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WHAT IS A CERTAINTY IS RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF. RAIN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW WILL BECOME
ANCHORED TONIGHT FROM WC MN TOWARD NW WI...WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ENDING AFTER 6Z FOR RWF AND POSSIBLY MSP. ALSO A CERTAINTY ARE
CIGS GOING UNDER VFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TAFS
ARE PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE IN...AS
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO MAKE A BIT MORE NRN PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT AS A
SFC LOW BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR EAU. WITH THE LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT DIRECTION WILL
GET A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE SREF
FOR DIRECTIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

KMSP...SREF PROBS FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z INCREASE TO ALMOST
100%...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CIGS STARTING OFF MONDAY UNDER 1K FT.
CONFIDENT IN RAIN FALLING AS WELL THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...BUT AFTER
THAT IT MAY BE MOSTLY DRY AT MSP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIP STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG





000
FXUS63 KMPX 241233
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
733 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL
BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE
INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL
LOW WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN
ORGANIZED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT
SLOWLY NNE THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE
PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS
AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH
OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL
TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7 THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A
MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A
DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC
CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT
ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN
BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF
HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50 INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT
AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON A
SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL... THE CONTINUED LACK
OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL MITIGATE GOOD
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED
VALUES...ESP OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE
LACK OF INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A
DEGREE OR TWO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY
MON MRNG ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG
DUE TO SLIGHT WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND
DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
55-60 DEGREE RANGE MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA
IS TOUGH THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR DECKS ACROSS ALL SITES AT INITIALIZATION. -RA STARTING TO
OVERSPREAD S AND SW MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N THROUGH THE
MRNG HRS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS VFR BUT LATE
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE HEAVIER RAIN WITH
MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
TO ADVERTISE THIS. THEN...FOLLOWING A SHORT-TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE DIMINISHING IF
NOT BREAK FROM THE PRECIP BEFORE MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL COMES LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE THEN. LAMP GUIDANCE
DOES ADVERTISE IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING THRU TNGT...BUT AM
HESITANT ATTM TO GO THAT FAR SO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT CONDS AT MVFR.

KMSP...CONDS TO DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT STILL MOSTLY
WITHIN VFR RANGE. THE 4-HOUR TEMPO WINDOW FOR MVFR CONDS COULD BE
ADJUSTED AN HOUR EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE RAIN
EVOLVES...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING CONDS TO GO INTO IFR RANGE AS MUCH
OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. WORSE CONDS ARE EXPECTED TNGT...AND
CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO IFR RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS ARND 10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 241233
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
733 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL
BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE
INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL
LOW WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN
ORGANIZED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT
SLOWLY NNE THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE
PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS
AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH
OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL
TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7 THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A
MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A
DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC
CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT
ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN
BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF
HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50 INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT
AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON A
SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL... THE CONTINUED LACK
OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL MITIGATE GOOD
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED
VALUES...ESP OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE
LACK OF INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A
DEGREE OR TWO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY
MON MRNG ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG
DUE TO SLIGHT WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND
DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
55-60 DEGREE RANGE MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA
IS TOUGH THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR DECKS ACROSS ALL SITES AT INITIALIZATION. -RA STARTING TO
OVERSPREAD S AND SW MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N THROUGH THE
MRNG HRS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS VFR BUT LATE
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE HEAVIER RAIN WITH
MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
TO ADVERTISE THIS. THEN...FOLLOWING A SHORT-TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE DIMINISHING IF
NOT BREAK FROM THE PRECIP BEFORE MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL COMES LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE THEN. LAMP GUIDANCE
DOES ADVERTISE IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING THRU TNGT...BUT AM
HESITANT ATTM TO GO THAT FAR SO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT CONDS AT MVFR.

KMSP...CONDS TO DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT STILL MOSTLY
WITHIN VFR RANGE. THE 4-HOUR TEMPO WINDOW FOR MVFR CONDS COULD BE
ADJUSTED AN HOUR EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE RAIN
EVOLVES...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING CONDS TO GO INTO IFR RANGE AS MUCH
OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. WORSE CONDS ARE EXPECTED TNGT...AND
CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO IFR RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS ARND 10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240934
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL LOW
WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN ORGANIZED
SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT SLOWLY NNE
THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA.
HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN
SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE
TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA
TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE
LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7
THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF
NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A
LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND
NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50
INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE ON A SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
THE CONTINUED LACK OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
MITIGATE GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED VALUES...ESP
OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF
INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY MON MRNG ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG DUE TO SLIGHT
WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM
THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE
MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONSEXPECTED.
HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA IS TOUGH THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 240934
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL LOW
WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN ORGANIZED
SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT SLOWLY NNE
THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA.
HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN
SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE
TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA
TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE
LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7
THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF
NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A
LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND
NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50
INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE ON A SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
THE CONTINUED LACK OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
MITIGATE GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED VALUES...ESP
OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF
INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY MON MRNG ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG DUE TO SLIGHT
WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM
THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE
MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONSEXPECTED.
HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA IS TOUGH THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240934
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL LOW
WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN ORGANIZED
SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT SLOWLY NNE
THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA.
HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN
SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE
TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA
TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE
LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7
THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF
NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A
LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND
NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50
INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE ON A SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
THE CONTINUED LACK OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
MITIGATE GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED VALUES...ESP
OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF
INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY MON MRNG ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG DUE TO SLIGHT
WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM
THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE
MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONSEXPECTED.
HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA IS TOUGH THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 240934
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL LOW
WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN ORGANIZED
SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT SLOWLY NNE
THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA.
HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN
SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE
TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA
TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE
LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7
THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF
NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A
LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND
NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50
INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE ON A SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
THE CONTINUED LACK OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
MITIGATE GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED VALUES...ESP
OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF
INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY MON MRNG ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG DUE TO SLIGHT
WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM
THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE
MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF THE UPPER JET. SOME
INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5" SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST
CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONSEXPECTED.
HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA IS TOUGH THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240928
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL LOW
WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN ORGANIZED
SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT SLOWLY NNE
THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA.
HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN
SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE
TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA
TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE
LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7
THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF
NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A
LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND
NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50
INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE ON A SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
THE CONTINUED LACK OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
MITIGATE GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED VALUES...ESP
OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF
INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY MON MRNG ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG DUE TO SLIGHT
WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM
THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE
MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT IN A LARGE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE MONDAY MORNING ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS
WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF
THE UPPER JET. SOME INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5"
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT
DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE
PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONSEXPECTED.
HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA IS TOUGH THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 240928
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION /SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG/. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN FORCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEP UPR LVL LOW
WILL ALSO HELP THE CONGLOMERATION OF WEAK SFC LOWS INTO AN ORGANIZED
SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LATER TDA...AND HELP SLOWLY NUDGE IT SLOWLY NNE
THRU TMRW. ISENTROPIC LIFT HEIGHTENS GREATLY THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...HELPING SPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
SWRN MN NWD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY MIDDAY TDA.
HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HOPWRF/HRRR/SREF/ARW-E IN
SLOWING DOWN THE INITIATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE CWFA...MORE
TOWARDS THE 12Z HR FOR SRN PORTIONS AND TO 17Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA
TO BE IN THE LIKELY POP RANGE. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP SURGE
LOOKS TO BE WITH A PRE-WARM-FRONTAL TROF WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE H7
THRU H5 PRES LEVELS...INDICATING A MIDLVL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU...THE MODELS DO SHOW A DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIP COVERAGE IF
NOT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE ACTION. HAVE DEPICTED THIS BY A
LOWERING OF POPS BACK TO THE CHC CATEGORY APPROACHING 00Z THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMMENCES BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE WMFNT ITSELF PUSHES INTO IA TONIGHT AND
NUDGES UP AGAINST THE IA/MN BORDER BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HVY RAIN AS PWATS INCREASE TO ARND 1.50
INCHES LATER TDA THRU TNGT AND THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE ON A SLOWING TREND. AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
THE CONTINUED LACK OF INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY NO BONA FIDE
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND MEAGER PROGGED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
MITIGATE GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY
SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT BUT ANY
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/SEVERE. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM INHERITED VALUES...ESP
OVER SRN MN...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF
INSOLATION. IN SOME CASES...MAX TEMPS MAY WELL HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA. THAT SAID...MIN TEMPS EARLY MON MRNG ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES THIS MRNG DUE TO SLIGHT
WAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WMFNT LATE TNGT AND DEEP SWLY FLOW FROM
THE UPR LVL PATTERN. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE
MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF WET WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING A BAND
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM CAME IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA JUST WEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA COULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON MONDAY /UPWARDS OF AN INCH/.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE MUST BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE
EC...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LEADING MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIME...IS INDICATING A
SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WANTS
TO PLACE THAT HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP FROM RED WING THROUGH NEW
RICHMOND. IN OUR FA...THE MOST UNCERTAIN AREA FOR PRECIP IS
WESTERN WI AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE IF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS END UP
BEING MORE ACCURATE...THAT COULD INTRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER EAU
CLAIRE AND REALLY LIMIT PRECIP THERE. SO...MUCH OF HOW MEMORIAL
DAY TURNS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS IS
USUAL WITH SURFACE LOWS...AREAS EAST OF THE TRACK WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BAND WHICH TYPICALLY MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY...THEN BATTLE THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...AREAS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND OVER AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

STRONG ASCENT IN A LARGE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE MONDAY MORNING ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS
WE ARE IN A PRIME REGION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED LIFT OF
THE UPPER JET. SOME INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5"
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT
DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL PIVOT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WEST CENTRAL MN HOWEVER MAY STILL BE
PLAGUED BY LIGHT PRECIP RIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE FA MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
MIDWEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. SO...CUT POPS BACK MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE POPS
COME BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MESSY PATTERN INDEED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A MODEST FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO GIVE BROAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC/GFS
STILL AGREE THAT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONSEXPECTED.
HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA IS TOUGH THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.

FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 240349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.

FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE

KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232253
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.

FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SPOTTY SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PESTER THE TAF AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE NO IMPACT ON CIGS/VSBYS. THE MAIN BATCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MN/IA BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THEN EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO DEGRADE TO MVFR WITHIN 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP ONSET. HAVE NOT INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION BECAUSE
INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE A VERY MINIMAL THREAT. AFTER SQUIRRELY
WINDS TO START THE PERIOD /ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA/...SHOULD SEE WINDS LATCH ON TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING ABOVE 10KTS ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

KMSP...
THE NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EASTERLY FOR
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VCTY
OF THE FIELD DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
/WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232253
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.

FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SPOTTY SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PESTER THE TAF AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE NO IMPACT ON CIGS/VSBYS. THE MAIN BATCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MN/IA BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THEN EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO DEGRADE TO MVFR WITHIN 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP ONSET. HAVE NOT INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION BECAUSE
INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE A VERY MINIMAL THREAT. AFTER SQUIRRELY
WINDS TO START THE PERIOD /ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA/...SHOULD SEE WINDS LATCH ON TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING ABOVE 10KTS ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

KMSP...
THE NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EASTERLY FOR
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VCTY
OF THE FIELD DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
/WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 232133
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.

FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EVEN WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...VARIABLE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT A LIGHT E-SE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MANY SITES ARE
ALREADY THERE...BUT EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MAKE THE CHANGE OVER. TOMORROW LOOKS RAINY AND WE COULD START TO
SEE MORE SITES PICK UP MVRF CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

KMSP...

THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE OF THE TAF TODAY. WINDS
ARE TRICKY IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WHERE THE AIRPORTS SHOW
DIVERGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN THESE CASES...THE WINDS ARE
OFTEN LIGHT AND HAVE LOTS OF VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION. THE LAST 30
MINUTES HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A TENDENCY OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
SO OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR A N-NE-E-SE
TRANSITION TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND IN GENERAL
THE SPEED SHOULD BE UNDER 7-8KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232133
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.

FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EVEN WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...VARIABLE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT A LIGHT E-SE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MANY SITES ARE
ALREADY THERE...BUT EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MAKE THE CHANGE OVER. TOMORROW LOOKS RAINY AND WE COULD START TO
SEE MORE SITES PICK UP MVRF CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

KMSP...

THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE OF THE TAF TODAY. WINDS
ARE TRICKY IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WHERE THE AIRPORTS SHOW
DIVERGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN THESE CASES...THE WINDS ARE
OFTEN LIGHT AND HAVE LOTS OF VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION. THE LAST 30
MINUTES HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A TENDENCY OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
SO OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR A N-NE-E-SE
TRANSITION TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND IN GENERAL
THE SPEED SHOULD BE UNDER 7-8KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 231813
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING IS THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ITS SPEED IN DOING
SO LOOKS A TAD SLOWER AT THIS TIME. SO...THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO JUST DELAY THE POPS A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF RAINFALL
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING...THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FORCING
THOUGH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE LCL TODAY
WILL HAMPER THE ABILITY OF THIS BAND TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  THIS BAND MAY BE PRIMARILY VIRGA...SO DID REDUCE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  MOST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION INTO OUR
AREA. IN FACT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE ARW-EAST
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEP H5 LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE W-CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF WRN
GOMEX MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A LARGE SERN CONUS H5 HIGH PRES DOME...SO THE SFC AND
ALOFT LOW PRES COMBINATION DRIFTING NEWD WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER THE
REGION FROM MID-TO-LATE DAY SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SUN
AFTN INTO CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG WHILE THE KICKER UPR LVL
LOW WILL COINCIDENTALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE
TILTED ASPECT OF THE LOW WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOS...EVEN NEAR THE SFC AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST DEWPOINTS INTO THE LWR 60S...MAY ADD SOME FUEL TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MON. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY WELL PUT A DAMPER ON SUCH POTENTIAL BUT
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND A PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLD POCKETS/PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE SFC LOW AND UPR LVL LOW PRES FEATURES WILL PULL AWAY TO NE ON
TUE...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUE THRU WED...WITH SOME BONA FIDE DRY TIME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A MUCH
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND A SFC PATTERN THAT HAS LESS DEFINITION. SEVERAL
UPR LVL SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE LOCKING ON A PERIOD WORTHY
OF A LIKELY POP.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE THEME OF LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
STILL HOLDS TRUE. IT DOES LOOK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS
HITTING THE UPR 70S. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE WITH A SLY SFC FLOW
RESUMING AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EVEN WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...VARIABLE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT A LIGHT E-SE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MANY SITES ARE
ALREADY THERE...BUT EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MAKE THE CHANGE OVER. TOMORROW LOOKS RAINY AND WE COULD START TO
SEE MORE SITES PICK UP MVRF CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

KMSP...

THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE OF THE TAF TODAY. WINDS
ARE TRICKY IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WHERE THE AIRPORTS SHOW
DIVERGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN THESE CASES...THE WINDS ARE
OFTEN LIGHT AND HAVE LOTS OF VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION. THE LAST 30
MINUTES HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A TENDENCY OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
SO OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR A N-NE-E-SE
TRANSITION TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND IN GENERAL
THE SPEED SHOULD BE UNDER 7-8KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 231813
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING IS THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ITS SPEED IN DOING
SO LOOKS A TAD SLOWER AT THIS TIME. SO...THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO JUST DELAY THE POPS A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF RAINFALL
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING...THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FORCING
THOUGH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE LCL TODAY
WILL HAMPER THE ABILITY OF THIS BAND TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  THIS BAND MAY BE PRIMARILY VIRGA...SO DID REDUCE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  MOST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION INTO OUR
AREA. IN FACT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE ARW-EAST
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEP H5 LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE W-CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF WRN
GOMEX MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A LARGE SERN CONUS H5 HIGH PRES DOME...SO THE SFC AND
ALOFT LOW PRES COMBINATION DRIFTING NEWD WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER THE
REGION FROM MID-TO-LATE DAY SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SUN
AFTN INTO CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG WHILE THE KICKER UPR LVL
LOW WILL COINCIDENTALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE
TILTED ASPECT OF THE LOW WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOS...EVEN NEAR THE SFC AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST DEWPOINTS INTO THE LWR 60S...MAY ADD SOME FUEL TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MON. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY WELL PUT A DAMPER ON SUCH POTENTIAL BUT
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND A PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLD POCKETS/PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE SFC LOW AND UPR LVL LOW PRES FEATURES WILL PULL AWAY TO NE ON
TUE...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUE THRU WED...WITH SOME BONA FIDE DRY TIME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A MUCH
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND A SFC PATTERN THAT HAS LESS DEFINITION. SEVERAL
UPR LVL SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE LOCKING ON A PERIOD WORTHY
OF A LIKELY POP.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE THEME OF LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
STILL HOLDS TRUE. IT DOES LOOK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS
HITTING THE UPR 70S. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE WITH A SLY SFC FLOW
RESUMING AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EVEN WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...VARIABLE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT A LIGHT E-SE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MANY SITES ARE
ALREADY THERE...BUT EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MAKE THE CHANGE OVER. TOMORROW LOOKS RAINY AND WE COULD START TO
SEE MORE SITES PICK UP MVRF CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.

KMSP...

THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE OF THE TAF TODAY. WINDS
ARE TRICKY IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WHERE THE AIRPORTS SHOW
DIVERGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN THESE CASES...THE WINDS ARE
OFTEN LIGHT AND HAVE LOTS OF VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION. THE LAST 30
MINUTES HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A TENDENCY OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
SO OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR A N-NE-E-SE
TRANSITION TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND IN GENERAL
THE SPEED SHOULD BE UNDER 7-8KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231207
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING IS THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ITS SPEED IN DOING
SO LOOKS A TAD SLOWER AT THIS TIME. SO...THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO JUST DELAY THE POPS A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF RAINFALL
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING...THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FORCING
THOUGH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE LCL TODAY
WILL HAMPER THE ABILITY OF THIS BAND TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  THIS BAND MAY BE PRIMARILY VIRGA...SO DID REDUCE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  MOST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION INTO OUR
AREA. IN FACT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE ARW-EAST
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEP H5 LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE W-CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF WRN
GOMEX MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A LARGE SERN CONUS H5 HIGH PRES DOME...SO THE SFC AND
ALOFT LOW PRES COMBINATION DRIFTING NEWD WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER THE
REGION FROM MID-TO-LATE DAY SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SUN
AFTN INTO CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG WHILE THE KICKER UPR LVL
LOW WILL COINCIDENTALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE
TILTED ASPECT OF THE LOW WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOS...EVEN NEAR THE SFC AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST DEWPOINTS INTO THE LWR 60S...MAY ADD SOME FUEL TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MON. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY WELL PUT A DAMPER ON SUCH POTENTIAL BUT
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND A PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLD POCKETS/PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE SFC LOW AND UPR LVL LOW PRES FEATURES WILL PULL AWAY TO NE ON
TUE...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUE THRU WED...WITH SOME BONA FIDE DRY TIME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A MUCH
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND A SFC PATTERN THAT HAS LESS DEFINITION. SEVERAL
UPR LVL SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE LOCKING ON A PERIOD WORTHY
OF A LIKELY POP.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE THEME OF LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
STILL HOLDS TRUE. IT DOES LOOK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS
HITTING THE UPR 70S. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE WITH A SLY SFC FLOW
RESUMING AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH CLOUDS BLANKET ALL TAF SITES THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HAVE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR TDA...CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS. KMPX RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SWATH OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SWRN MN...WITH A SCATTERING OF OB SITES REPORTING -DZ/-RA. GIVEN
ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY...HAVE INCLUDED A SHORT DURATION OF VFR -SHRA
AT THE 4 MN TAF SITES WHILE KEEPING THE 2 WI TAF SITES DRY.
BKN/OVC DECKS WILL PREVAIL TNGT INTO TMRW MRNG...WITH KRWF-KMSP
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP PRIOR TO 12Z TMRW MRNG.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME GENERALLY SLY BY MIDDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO ESE TNGT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS.

KMSP...FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z-20Z TDA...BUT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY EARLIER IF ANYTHING. REGARDLESS...THE PRECIP TDA WOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT. MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE
TNGT THRU MIDDAY TOMORROW AND ONWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231207
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING IS THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ITS SPEED IN DOING
SO LOOKS A TAD SLOWER AT THIS TIME. SO...THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO JUST DELAY THE POPS A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF RAINFALL
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING...THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FORCING
THOUGH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE LCL TODAY
WILL HAMPER THE ABILITY OF THIS BAND TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  THIS BAND MAY BE PRIMARILY VIRGA...SO DID REDUCE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  MOST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION INTO OUR
AREA. IN FACT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE ARW-EAST
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEP H5 LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE W-CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF WRN
GOMEX MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A LARGE SERN CONUS H5 HIGH PRES DOME...SO THE SFC AND
ALOFT LOW PRES COMBINATION DRIFTING NEWD WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER THE
REGION FROM MID-TO-LATE DAY SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SUN
AFTN INTO CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG WHILE THE KICKER UPR LVL
LOW WILL COINCIDENTALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE
TILTED ASPECT OF THE LOW WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOS...EVEN NEAR THE SFC AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST DEWPOINTS INTO THE LWR 60S...MAY ADD SOME FUEL TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MON. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY WELL PUT A DAMPER ON SUCH POTENTIAL BUT
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND A PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLD POCKETS/PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE SFC LOW AND UPR LVL LOW PRES FEATURES WILL PULL AWAY TO NE ON
TUE...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUE THRU WED...WITH SOME BONA FIDE DRY TIME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A MUCH
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND A SFC PATTERN THAT HAS LESS DEFINITION. SEVERAL
UPR LVL SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE LOCKING ON A PERIOD WORTHY
OF A LIKELY POP.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE THEME OF LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
STILL HOLDS TRUE. IT DOES LOOK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS
HITTING THE UPR 70S. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE WITH A SLY SFC FLOW
RESUMING AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH CLOUDS BLANKET ALL TAF SITES THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HAVE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR TDA...CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS. KMPX RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SWATH OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SWRN MN...WITH A SCATTERING OF OB SITES REPORTING -DZ/-RA. GIVEN
ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY...HAVE INCLUDED A SHORT DURATION OF VFR -SHRA
AT THE 4 MN TAF SITES WHILE KEEPING THE 2 WI TAF SITES DRY.
BKN/OVC DECKS WILL PREVAIL TNGT INTO TMRW MRNG...WITH KRWF-KMSP
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP PRIOR TO 12Z TMRW MRNG.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME GENERALLY SLY BY MIDDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO ESE TNGT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS.

KMSP...FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z-20Z TDA...BUT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY EARLIER IF ANYTHING. REGARDLESS...THE PRECIP TDA WOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT. MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE
TNGT THRU MIDDAY TOMORROW AND ONWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 230849
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING IS THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ITS SPEED IN DOING
SO LOOKS A TAD SLOWER AT THIS TIME. SO...THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO JUST DELAY THE POPS A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF RAINFALL
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING...THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FORCING
THOUGH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE LCL TODAY
WILL HAMPER THE ABILITY OF THIS BAND TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  THIS BAND MAY BE PRIMARILY VIRGA...SO DID REDUCE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  MOST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION INTO OUR
AREA. IN FACT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE ARW-EAST
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEP H5 LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE W-CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF WRN
GOMEX MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A LARGE SERN CONUS H5 HIGH PRES DOME...SO THE SFC AND
ALOFT LOW PRES COMBINATION DRIFTING NEWD WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER THE
REGION FROM MID-TO-LATE DAY SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SUN
AFTN INTO CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG WHILE THE KICKER UPR LVL
LOW WILL COINCIDENTALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE
TILTED ASPECT OF THE LOW WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOS...EVEN NEAR THE SFC AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST DEWPOINTS INTO THE LWR 60S...MAY ADD SOME FUEL TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MON. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY WELL PUT A DAMPER ON SUCH POTENTIAL BUT
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND A PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLD POCKETS/PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE SFC LOW AND UPR LVL LOW PRES FEATURES WILL PULL AWAY TO NE ON
TUE...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUE THRU WED...WITH SOME BONA FIDE DRY TIME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A MUCH
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND A SFC PATTERN THAT HAS LESS DEFINITION. SEVERAL
UPR LVL SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE LOCKING ON A PERIOD WORTHY
OF A LIKELY POP.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE THEME OF LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
STILL HOLDS TRUE. IT DOES LOOK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS
HITTING THE UPR 70S. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE WITH A SLY SFC FLOW
RESUMING AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL
BE LOWERING TO 060-090 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AT 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...THE THREAT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ARRIVING NEAR DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CEILINGS ON SATURDAY AOA 060.
LIGHT SE WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 17Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230849
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING IS THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ITS SPEED IN DOING
SO LOOKS A TAD SLOWER AT THIS TIME. SO...THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO JUST DELAY THE POPS A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF RAINFALL
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING...THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FORCING
THOUGH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE LCL TODAY
WILL HAMPER THE ABILITY OF THIS BAND TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  THIS BAND MAY BE PRIMARILY VIRGA...SO DID REDUCE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  MOST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION INTO OUR
AREA. IN FACT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE ARW-EAST
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEP H5 LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE W-CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF WRN
GOMEX MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A LARGE SERN CONUS H5 HIGH PRES DOME...SO THE SFC AND
ALOFT LOW PRES COMBINATION DRIFTING NEWD WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER THE
REGION FROM MID-TO-LATE DAY SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SUN
AFTN INTO CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG WHILE THE KICKER UPR LVL
LOW WILL COINCIDENTALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE
TILTED ASPECT OF THE LOW WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOS...EVEN NEAR THE SFC AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST DEWPOINTS INTO THE LWR 60S...MAY ADD SOME FUEL TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MON. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY WELL PUT A DAMPER ON SUCH POTENTIAL BUT
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND A PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLD POCKETS/PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE SFC LOW AND UPR LVL LOW PRES FEATURES WILL PULL AWAY TO NE ON
TUE...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUE THRU WED...WITH SOME BONA FIDE DRY TIME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A MUCH
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND A SFC PATTERN THAT HAS LESS DEFINITION. SEVERAL
UPR LVL SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE LOCKING ON A PERIOD WORTHY
OF A LIKELY POP.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE THEME OF LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
STILL HOLDS TRUE. IT DOES LOOK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS
HITTING THE UPR 70S. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE WITH A SLY SFC FLOW
RESUMING AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL
BE LOWERING TO 060-090 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AT 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...THE THREAT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ARRIVING NEAR DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CEILINGS ON SATURDAY AOA 060.
LIGHT SE WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 17Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230849
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING IS THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ITS SPEED IN DOING
SO LOOKS A TAD SLOWER AT THIS TIME. SO...THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO JUST DELAY THE POPS A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF RAINFALL
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING...THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FORCING
THOUGH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE LCL TODAY
WILL HAMPER THE ABILITY OF THIS BAND TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  THIS BAND MAY BE PRIMARILY VIRGA...SO DID REDUCE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  MOST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION INTO OUR
AREA. IN FACT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE ARW-EAST
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AS A DEEP H5 LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTRIBUTES TO A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE W-CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF WRN
GOMEX MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A LARGE SERN CONUS H5 HIGH PRES DOME...SO THE SFC AND
ALOFT LOW PRES COMBINATION DRIFTING NEWD WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER THE
REGION FROM MID-TO-LATE DAY SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SUN
AFTN INTO CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG WHILE THE KICKER UPR LVL
LOW WILL COINCIDENTALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE
TILTED ASPECT OF THE LOW WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOS...EVEN NEAR THE SFC AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST DEWPOINTS INTO THE LWR 60S...MAY ADD SOME FUEL TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MON. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY WELL PUT A DAMPER ON SUCH POTENTIAL BUT
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND A PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLD POCKETS/PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE SFC LOW AND UPR LVL LOW PRES FEATURES WILL PULL AWAY TO NE ON
TUE...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUE THRU WED...WITH SOME BONA FIDE DRY TIME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A MUCH
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND A SFC PATTERN THAT HAS LESS DEFINITION. SEVERAL
UPR LVL SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE LOCKING ON A PERIOD WORTHY
OF A LIKELY POP.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE THEME OF LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
STILL HOLDS TRUE. IT DOES LOOK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS
HITTING THE UPR 70S. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE WITH A SLY SFC FLOW
RESUMING AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL
BE LOWERING TO 060-090 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AT 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...THE THREAT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ARRIVING NEAR DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CEILINGS ON SATURDAY AOA 060.
LIGHT SE WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 17Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 230400
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN...THEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

NEARLY A PICTURE-PERFECT DAY OUT THERE...WITH SUNNY SKIES...MILD
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE VIRGA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN 925-850MB TEMPS...EXPECT SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...AS
ARGUMENTS FOR INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE AREA
EXIST FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED...THE ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK IS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER WRN
CANADA...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THE MAIN
THING THAT CHANGES WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THIS WEEKEND
PROGRESSES IS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHICH
WILL PUSH THE SRN STREAM BACK OUR DIRECTION...HENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING. THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SW TO S UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE LOSS OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN SAID ZONAL FLOW WHILE A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE NRN CONUS...HENCE THE ENDLESS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE STILL SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT ON. DURING THE WEEKEND...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FILLING AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. THE GFS/NAM
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COME MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENING ON MONDAY TO UNDER 1000 MB AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS MN/WI. CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS WOULD SUPPORT
A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IF THE 22.12
GFS SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE OPEN
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE GFS/NAM REPLACED BY A RATHER
INNOCUOUS LOW MOVING ACROSS WRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MONDAY WOULD
FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. FOR POP GRIDS THIS WEEKEND...CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS TO MOVE JUST TO AROUND SE MN AS THE LLJ GOES FROM
CENTRAL IA TOWARD SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STILL FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH MONDAY
FEATURING AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS. FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ELEVATED...SO
WOULD ONLY OFFER A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BOTH LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF...AND THATS A BIG IF...THE GFS/NAM
FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY. AS FOR A PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND IT IS THE ECMWF. THIS WHOLE WEEK WE HAVE SIMPLY BEEN
WATCHING THE GFS/NAM START OFF ONE DIRECTION...ONLY TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME /SEE THE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THE GFS/NAM
ARE NOW SHOWING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS/.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS
WE GET INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TIMING OF SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE ADVANTAGE THESE WAVE WILL HAVE IS
THAT WE NEVER LOOK TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH OF
MN/WI...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO WORK WITH. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE GRIDS WAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS TO LITTER THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WHAT IS
WORTH...THE 22.12 GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE US MAINLY DRY TUE/WED...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THU/FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS THAT IT WILL BE
MILD...WITH RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL
BE LOWERING TO 060-090 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANTRAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AT 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...THE THREAT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ARRIVING NEAR DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CEILINGS ON SATURDAY AOA 060.
LIGHT SE WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 17Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230400
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN...THEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

NEARLY A PICTURE-PERFECT DAY OUT THERE...WITH SUNNY SKIES...MILD
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE VIRGA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN 925-850MB TEMPS...EXPECT SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...AS
ARGUMENTS FOR INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE AREA
EXIST FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED...THE ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK IS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER WRN
CANADA...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THE MAIN
THING THAT CHANGES WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THIS WEEKEND
PROGRESSES IS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHICH
WILL PUSH THE SRN STREAM BACK OUR DIRECTION...HENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING. THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SW TO S UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE LOSS OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN SAID ZONAL FLOW WHILE A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE NRN CONUS...HENCE THE ENDLESS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE STILL SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT ON. DURING THE WEEKEND...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FILLING AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. THE GFS/NAM
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COME MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENING ON MONDAY TO UNDER 1000 MB AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS MN/WI. CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS WOULD SUPPORT
A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IF THE 22.12
GFS SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE OPEN
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE GFS/NAM REPLACED BY A RATHER
INNOCUOUS LOW MOVING ACROSS WRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MONDAY WOULD
FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. FOR POP GRIDS THIS WEEKEND...CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS TO MOVE JUST TO AROUND SE MN AS THE LLJ GOES FROM
CENTRAL IA TOWARD SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STILL FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH MONDAY
FEATURING AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS. FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ELEVATED...SO
WOULD ONLY OFFER A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BOTH LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF...AND THATS A BIG IF...THE GFS/NAM
FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY. AS FOR A PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND IT IS THE ECMWF. THIS WHOLE WEEK WE HAVE SIMPLY BEEN
WATCHING THE GFS/NAM START OFF ONE DIRECTION...ONLY TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME /SEE THE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THE GFS/NAM
ARE NOW SHOWING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS/.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS
WE GET INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TIMING OF SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE ADVANTAGE THESE WAVE WILL HAVE IS
THAT WE NEVER LOOK TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH OF
MN/WI...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO WORK WITH. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE GRIDS WAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS TO LITTER THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WHAT IS
WORTH...THE 22.12 GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE US MAINLY DRY TUE/WED...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THU/FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS THAT IT WILL BE
MILD...WITH RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL
BE LOWERING TO 060-090 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANTRAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AT 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...THE THREAT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ARRIVING NEAR DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CEILINGS ON SATURDAY AOA 060.
LIGHT SE WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 17Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 222359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN...THEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

NEARLY A PICTURE-PERFECT DAY OUT THERE...WITH SUNNY SKIES...MILD
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE VIRGA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN 925-850MB TEMPS...EXPECT SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...AS
ARGUMENTS FOR INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE AREA
EXIST FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED...THE ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK IS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER WRN
CANADA...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THE MAIN
THING THAT CHANGES WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THIS WEEKEND
PROGRESSES IS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHICH
WILL PUSH THE SRN STREAM BACK OUR DIRECTION...HENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING. THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SW TO S UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE LOSS OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN SAID ZONAL FLOW WHILE A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE NRN CONUS...HENCE THE ENDLESS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE STILL SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT ON. DURING THE WEEKEND...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FILLING AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. THE GFS/NAM
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COME MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENING ON MONDAY TO UNDER 1000 MB AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS MN/WI. CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS WOULD SUPPORT
A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IF THE 22.12
GFS SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE OPEN
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE GFS/NAM REPLACED BY A RATHER
INNOCUOUS LOW MOVING ACROSS WRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MONDAY WOULD
FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. FOR POP GRIDS THIS WEEKEND...CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS TO MOVE JUST TO AROUND SE MN AS THE LLJ GOES FROM
CENTRAL IA TOWARD SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STILL FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH MONDAY
FEATURING AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS. FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ELEVATED...SO
WOULD ONLY OFFER A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BOTH LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF...AND THATS A BIG IF...THE GFS/NAM
FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY. AS FOR A PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND IT IS THE ECMWF. THIS WHOLE WEEK WE HAVE SIMPLY BEEN
WATCHING THE GFS/NAM START OFF ONE DIRECTION...ONLY TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME /SEE THE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THE GFS/NAM
ARE NOW SHOWING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS/.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS
WE GET INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TIMING OF SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE ADVANTAGE THESE WAVE WILL HAVE IS
THAT WE NEVER LOOK TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH OF
MN/WI...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO WORK WITH. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE GRIDS WAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS TO LITTER THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WHAT IS
WORTH...THE 22.12 GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE US MAINLY DRY TUE/WED...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THU/FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS THAT IT WILL BE
MILD...WITH RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH BKN-OVC050-060 ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN WITH ONLY KAXN AND KRWF
HAVING A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC050-060 DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF THIS TAF. ANY ORGANIZED
SHRA DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 222359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN...THEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

NEARLY A PICTURE-PERFECT DAY OUT THERE...WITH SUNNY SKIES...MILD
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE VIRGA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN 925-850MB TEMPS...EXPECT SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...AS
ARGUMENTS FOR INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE AREA
EXIST FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED...THE ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK IS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER WRN
CANADA...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THE MAIN
THING THAT CHANGES WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THIS WEEKEND
PROGRESSES IS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHICH
WILL PUSH THE SRN STREAM BACK OUR DIRECTION...HENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING. THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SW TO S UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE LOSS OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN SAID ZONAL FLOW WHILE A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE NRN CONUS...HENCE THE ENDLESS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE STILL SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT ON. DURING THE WEEKEND...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FILLING AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. THE GFS/NAM
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COME MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENING ON MONDAY TO UNDER 1000 MB AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS MN/WI. CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS WOULD SUPPORT
A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IF THE 22.12
GFS SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE OPEN
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE GFS/NAM REPLACED BY A RATHER
INNOCUOUS LOW MOVING ACROSS WRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MONDAY WOULD
FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. FOR POP GRIDS THIS WEEKEND...CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS TO MOVE JUST TO AROUND SE MN AS THE LLJ GOES FROM
CENTRAL IA TOWARD SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STILL FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH MONDAY
FEATURING AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS. FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ELEVATED...SO
WOULD ONLY OFFER A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BOTH LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF...AND THATS A BIG IF...THE GFS/NAM
FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY. AS FOR A PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND IT IS THE ECMWF. THIS WHOLE WEEK WE HAVE SIMPLY BEEN
WATCHING THE GFS/NAM START OFF ONE DIRECTION...ONLY TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME /SEE THE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THE GFS/NAM
ARE NOW SHOWING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS/.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS
WE GET INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TIMING OF SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE ADVANTAGE THESE WAVE WILL HAVE IS
THAT WE NEVER LOOK TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH OF
MN/WI...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO WORK WITH. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE GRIDS WAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS TO LITTER THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WHAT IS
WORTH...THE 22.12 GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE US MAINLY DRY TUE/WED...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THU/FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS THAT IT WILL BE
MILD...WITH RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH BKN-OVC050-060 ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN WITH ONLY KAXN AND KRWF
HAVING A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC050-060 DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF THIS TAF. ANY ORGANIZED
SHRA DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 222359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN...THEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

NEARLY A PICTURE-PERFECT DAY OUT THERE...WITH SUNNY SKIES...MILD
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE VIRGA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN 925-850MB TEMPS...EXPECT SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...AS
ARGUMENTS FOR INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE AREA
EXIST FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED...THE ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK IS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER WRN
CANADA...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THE MAIN
THING THAT CHANGES WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THIS WEEKEND
PROGRESSES IS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHICH
WILL PUSH THE SRN STREAM BACK OUR DIRECTION...HENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING. THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SW TO S UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE LOSS OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN SAID ZONAL FLOW WHILE A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE NRN CONUS...HENCE THE ENDLESS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE STILL SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT ON. DURING THE WEEKEND...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FILLING AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. THE GFS/NAM
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COME MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENING ON MONDAY TO UNDER 1000 MB AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS MN/WI. CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS WOULD SUPPORT
A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IF THE 22.12
GFS SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE OPEN
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE GFS/NAM REPLACED BY A RATHER
INNOCUOUS LOW MOVING ACROSS WRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MONDAY WOULD
FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. FOR POP GRIDS THIS WEEKEND...CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS TO MOVE JUST TO AROUND SE MN AS THE LLJ GOES FROM
CENTRAL IA TOWARD SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STILL FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH MONDAY
FEATURING AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS. FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ELEVATED...SO
WOULD ONLY OFFER A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BOTH LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF...AND THATS A BIG IF...THE GFS/NAM
FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY. AS FOR A PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND IT IS THE ECMWF. THIS WHOLE WEEK WE HAVE SIMPLY BEEN
WATCHING THE GFS/NAM START OFF ONE DIRECTION...ONLY TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME /SEE THE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THE GFS/NAM
ARE NOW SHOWING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS/.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS
WE GET INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TIMING OF SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE ADVANTAGE THESE WAVE WILL HAVE IS
THAT WE NEVER LOOK TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH OF
MN/WI...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO WORK WITH. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE GRIDS WAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS TO LITTER THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WHAT IS
WORTH...THE 22.12 GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE US MAINLY DRY TUE/WED...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THU/FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS THAT IT WILL BE
MILD...WITH RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH BKN-OVC050-060 ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN WITH ONLY KAXN AND KRWF
HAVING A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC050-060 DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF THIS TAF. ANY ORGANIZED
SHRA DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 222359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN...THEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

NEARLY A PICTURE-PERFECT DAY OUT THERE...WITH SUNNY SKIES...MILD
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE VIRGA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN 925-850MB TEMPS...EXPECT SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...AS
ARGUMENTS FOR INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE AREA
EXIST FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED...THE ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK IS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER WRN
CANADA...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THE MAIN
THING THAT CHANGES WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THIS WEEKEND
PROGRESSES IS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHICH
WILL PUSH THE SRN STREAM BACK OUR DIRECTION...HENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING. THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SW TO S UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE LOSS OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN SAID ZONAL FLOW WHILE A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE NRN CONUS...HENCE THE ENDLESS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE STILL SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT ON. DURING THE WEEKEND...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FILLING AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. THE GFS/NAM
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COME MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENING ON MONDAY TO UNDER 1000 MB AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS MN/WI. CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS WOULD SUPPORT
A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IF THE 22.12
GFS SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE OPEN
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE GFS/NAM REPLACED BY A RATHER
INNOCUOUS LOW MOVING ACROSS WRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MONDAY WOULD
FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. FOR POP GRIDS THIS WEEKEND...CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS TO MOVE JUST TO AROUND SE MN AS THE LLJ GOES FROM
CENTRAL IA TOWARD SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STILL FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH MONDAY
FEATURING AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS. FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ELEVATED...SO
WOULD ONLY OFFER A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BOTH LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF...AND THATS A BIG IF...THE GFS/NAM
FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY. AS FOR A PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND IT IS THE ECMWF. THIS WHOLE WEEK WE HAVE SIMPLY BEEN
WATCHING THE GFS/NAM START OFF ONE DIRECTION...ONLY TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME /SEE THE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THE GFS/NAM
ARE NOW SHOWING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS/.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS
WE GET INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TIMING OF SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE ADVANTAGE THESE WAVE WILL HAVE IS
THAT WE NEVER LOOK TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH OF
MN/WI...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO WORK WITH. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE GRIDS WAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS TO LITTER THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WHAT IS
WORTH...THE 22.12 GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE US MAINLY DRY TUE/WED...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THU/FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS THAT IT WILL BE
MILD...WITH RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH BKN-OVC050-060 ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN WITH ONLY KAXN AND KRWF
HAVING A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH 6-10 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC050-060 DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF THIS TAF. ANY ORGANIZED
SHRA DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221920
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN...THEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

NEARLY A PICTURE-PERFECT DAY OUT THERE...WITH SUNNY SKIES...MILD
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE VIRGA INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN 925-850MB TEMPS...EXPECT SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...AS
ARGUMENTS FOR INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE AREA
EXIST FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED...THE ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK IS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER WRN
CANADA...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THE MAIN
THING THAT CHANGES WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THIS WEEKEND
PROGRESSES IS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS WHICH
WILL PUSH THE SRN STREAM BACK OUR DIRECTION...HENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING. THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SW TO S UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE LOSS OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN SAID ZONAL FLOW WHILE A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE NRN CONUS...HENCE THE ENDLESS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE STILL SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT ON. DURING THE WEEKEND...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FILLING AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. THE GFS/NAM
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COME MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEEPENING ON MONDAY TO UNDER 1000 MB AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS MN/WI. CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS WOULD SUPPORT
A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IF THE 22.12
GFS SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE OPEN
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE GFS/NAM REPLACED BY A RATHER
INNOCUOUS LOW MOVING ACROSS WRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MONDAY WOULD
FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. FOR POP GRIDS THIS WEEKEND...CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS TO MOVE JUST TO AROUND SE MN AS THE LLJ GOES FROM
CENTRAL IA TOWARD SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STILL FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH MONDAY
FEATURING AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS. FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ELEVATED...SO
WOULD ONLY OFFER A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
BOTH LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF...AND THATS A BIG IF...THE GFS/NAM
FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY. AS FOR A PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND IT IS THE ECMWF. THIS WHOLE WEEK WE HAVE SIMPLY BEEN
WATCHING THE GFS/NAM START OFF ONE DIRECTION...ONLY TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME /SEE THE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THE GFS/NAM
ARE NOW SHOWING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS/.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS
WE GET INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TIMING OF SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE ADVANTAGE THESE WAVE WILL HAVE IS
THAT WE NEVER LOOK TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH OF
MN/WI...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO WORK WITH. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE GRIDS WAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS TO LITTER THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WHAT IS
WORTH...THE 22.12 GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE US MAINLY DRY TUE/WED...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THU/FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS THAT IT WILL BE
MILD...WITH RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MN AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN
UNRESTRICTED VSBY -RA MENTION AT MN SITES...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SPEEDS AOB 7KTS.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 20Z SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA WITH MVFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 221729
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MN AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN
UNRESTRICTED VSBY -RA MENTION AT MN SITES...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SPEEDS AOB 7KTS.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 20Z SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA WITH MVFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 221729
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MN AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN
UNRESTRICTED VSBY -RA MENTION AT MN SITES...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SPEEDS AOB 7KTS.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 20Z SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA WITH MVFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221729
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MN AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN
UNRESTRICTED VSBY -RA MENTION AT MN SITES...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SPEEDS AOB 7KTS.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 20Z SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA WITH MVFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 221729
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MN AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN
UNRESTRICTED VSBY -RA MENTION AT MN SITES...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SPEEDS AOB 7KTS.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 20Z SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SE
10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA WITH MVFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




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