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000
FXUS63 KMPX 291028
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IS HOW HIGH WILL THE WIND GUSTS GET TODAY AS A
POWERFUL SUMMER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
TUESDAY AFTN WIND GUSTS WERE OVER 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
IN MPX CWA...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY. CURRENTLY THE WIND ADVISORY IS VALID FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO GUSTS ABV 30 MPH NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AS OF 330 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SFC WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THRU ABOUT
2 PM. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WHERE WINDS ARE STRONG
NORMALLY...COULD GUST ABV 45 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING. EXPECT A QUICK DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER ALSO
WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE PREVAILING COMBINATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S BUT ALSO LOW RH VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
A BIT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DRIVES
SEWD FROM WRN CANADA. THE PRONOUNCED ERN NOAM TROF WITH A WRN NOAM
RIDGE WILL FORCE A COMPACT LOW PRES CENTER FROM MAKING A PROLONGED
STAY IN THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BRING SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE CWFA SAT NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING EARLY SUN MRNG. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SLOWER PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE BETTER UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM WHICH TO DRAW LIFT AND
DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BUT
ITS TRAILING SFC FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER...
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE LITTLE VARIATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO THE LWR 80S WITH CONTINUED MILD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY WINDS TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS BY
14-16Z...THEN DECREASE BY 21-22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS.

KMSP...

NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS WITH GUSTY WINDS THRU 22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 291028
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IS HOW HIGH WILL THE WIND GUSTS GET TODAY AS A
POWERFUL SUMMER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
TUESDAY AFTN WIND GUSTS WERE OVER 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
IN MPX CWA...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY. CURRENTLY THE WIND ADVISORY IS VALID FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO GUSTS ABV 30 MPH NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AS OF 330 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SFC WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THRU ABOUT
2 PM. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WHERE WINDS ARE STRONG
NORMALLY...COULD GUST ABV 45 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING. EXPECT A QUICK DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER ALSO
WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE PREVAILING COMBINATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S BUT ALSO LOW RH VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
A BIT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DRIVES
SEWD FROM WRN CANADA. THE PRONOUNCED ERN NOAM TROF WITH A WRN NOAM
RIDGE WILL FORCE A COMPACT LOW PRES CENTER FROM MAKING A PROLONGED
STAY IN THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BRING SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE CWFA SAT NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING EARLY SUN MRNG. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SLOWER PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE BETTER UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM WHICH TO DRAW LIFT AND
DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BUT
ITS TRAILING SFC FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER...
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE LITTLE VARIATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO THE LWR 80S WITH CONTINUED MILD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY WINDS TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS BY
14-16Z...THEN DECREASE BY 21-22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS.

KMSP...

NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS WITH GUSTY WINDS THRU 22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 291028
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IS HOW HIGH WILL THE WIND GUSTS GET TODAY AS A
POWERFUL SUMMER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
TUESDAY AFTN WIND GUSTS WERE OVER 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
IN MPX CWA...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY. CURRENTLY THE WIND ADVISORY IS VALID FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO GUSTS ABV 30 MPH NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AS OF 330 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SFC WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THRU ABOUT
2 PM. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WHERE WINDS ARE STRONG
NORMALLY...COULD GUST ABV 45 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING. EXPECT A QUICK DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER ALSO
WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE PREVAILING COMBINATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S BUT ALSO LOW RH VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
A BIT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DRIVES
SEWD FROM WRN CANADA. THE PRONOUNCED ERN NOAM TROF WITH A WRN NOAM
RIDGE WILL FORCE A COMPACT LOW PRES CENTER FROM MAKING A PROLONGED
STAY IN THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BRING SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE CWFA SAT NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING EARLY SUN MRNG. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SLOWER PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE BETTER UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM WHICH TO DRAW LIFT AND
DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BUT
ITS TRAILING SFC FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER...
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE LITTLE VARIATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO THE LWR 80S WITH CONTINUED MILD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY WINDS TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS BY
14-16Z...THEN DECREASE BY 21-22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS.

KMSP...

NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS WITH GUSTY WINDS THRU 22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290837
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IS HOW HIGH WILL THE WIND GUSTS GET TODAY AS A
POWERFUL SUMMER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
TUESDAY AFTN WIND GUSTS WERE OVER 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
IN MPX CWA...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY. CURRENTLY THE WIND ADVISORY IS VALID FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO GUSTS ABV 30 MPH NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AS OF 330 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SFC WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THRU ABOUT
2 PM. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WHERE WINDS ARE STRONG
NORMALLY...COULD GUST ABV 45 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING. EXPECT A QUICK DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER ALSO
WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE PREVAILING COMBINATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S BUT ALSO LOW RH VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
A BIT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DRIVES
SEWD FROM WRN CANADA. THE PRONOUNCED ERN NOAM TROF WITH A WRN NOAM
RIDGE WILL FORCE A COMPACT LOW PRES CENTER FROM MAKING A PROLONGED
STAY IN THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BRING SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE CWFA SAT NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING EARLY SUN MRNG. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SLOWER PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE BETTER UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM WHICH TO DRAW LIFT AND
DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BUT
ITS TRAILING SFC FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER...
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE LITTLE VARIATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO THE LWR 80S WITH CONTINUED MILD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD INTO SERN MN AND WRN WI
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT...SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25
KT AND GUST TO 30-35 KT BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 290837
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IS HOW HIGH WILL THE WIND GUSTS GET TODAY AS A
POWERFUL SUMMER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
TUESDAY AFTN WIND GUSTS WERE OVER 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
IN MPX CWA...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY. CURRENTLY THE WIND ADVISORY IS VALID FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO GUSTS ABV 30 MPH NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AS OF 330 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SFC WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THRU ABOUT
2 PM. SOME OF THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WHERE WINDS ARE STRONG
NORMALLY...COULD GUST ABV 45 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING. EXPECT A QUICK DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER ALSO
WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE PREVAILING COMBINATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S BUT ALSO LOW RH VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
A BIT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DRIVES
SEWD FROM WRN CANADA. THE PRONOUNCED ERN NOAM TROF WITH A WRN NOAM
RIDGE WILL FORCE A COMPACT LOW PRES CENTER FROM MAKING A PROLONGED
STAY IN THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BRING SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE CWFA SAT NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING EARLY SUN MRNG. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SLOWER PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE BETTER UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM WHICH TO DRAW LIFT AND
DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BUT
ITS TRAILING SFC FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER...
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE LITTLE VARIATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO THE LWR 80S WITH CONTINUED MILD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD INTO SERN MN AND WRN WI
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT...SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25
KT AND GUST TO 30-35 KT BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290455 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND 50S BEHIND IT.

LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REASON BEING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE
WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD...WHICH CAPPED OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER WITH
TIME...WHICH DECREASED THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED POPS ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA...AND HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN
WESTERN WI.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 30KT MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT THE BEST WINDS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO OPTED NOT TO GO WITH
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE 1) THE TIMING IS OFF AND 2) ITS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE JUST A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
PCPN AS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION... BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... BUT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH/EAST. SURFACE RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN ON NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT IS AT THAT POINT THAT THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A FAIR BIT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
BETTER COLD FRONT AND MORE UPPER TROUGHINESS IN ITS WAKE IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF. BOTH HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
PCPN CHANCES... HOWEVER... WITH CHANCE POPS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN THINGS
DRYING OUT SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING IN THAT AREA AND
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD INTO SERN MN AND WRN WI
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT...SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25
KT AND GUST TO 30-35 KT BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290455 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND 50S BEHIND IT.

LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REASON BEING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE
WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD...WHICH CAPPED OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER WITH
TIME...WHICH DECREASED THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED POPS ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA...AND HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN
WESTERN WI.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 30KT MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT THE BEST WINDS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO OPTED NOT TO GO WITH
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE 1) THE TIMING IS OFF AND 2) ITS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE JUST A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
PCPN AS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION... BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... BUT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH/EAST. SURFACE RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN ON NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT IS AT THAT POINT THAT THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A FAIR BIT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
BETTER COLD FRONT AND MORE UPPER TROUGHINESS IN ITS WAKE IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF. BOTH HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
PCPN CHANCES... HOWEVER... WITH CHANCE POPS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN THINGS
DRYING OUT SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING IN THAT AREA AND
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD INTO SERN MN AND WRN WI
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT...SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25
KT AND GUST TO 30-35 KT BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 290027 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
727 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND 50S BEHIND IT.

LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REASON BEING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE
WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD...WHICH CAPPED OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER WITH
TIME...WHICH DECREASED THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED POPS ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA...AND HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN
WESTERN WI.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 30KT MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT THE BEST WINDS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO OPTED NOT TO GO WITH
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE 1) THE TIMING IS OFF AND 2) ITS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE JUST A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
PCPN AS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION... BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... BUT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH/EAST. SURFACE RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN ON NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT IS AT THAT POINT THAT THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A FAIR BIT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
BETTER COLD FRONT AND MORE UPPER TROUGHINESS IN ITS WAKE IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF. BOTH HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
PCPN CHANCES... HOWEVER... WITH CHANCE POPS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN THINGS
DRYING OUT SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING IN THAT AREA AND
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED AXN/RWF/STC...AND WILL CLEAR MSP BY
0130Z...RNH BY 03Z AND EAU BY 05Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25
KT AND GUST TO 30-35 KT BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281913
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND 50S BEHIND IT.

LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REASON BEING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE
WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD...WHICH CAPPED OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER WITH
TIME...WHICH DECREASED THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED POPS ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA...AND HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN
WESTERN WI.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 30KT MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT THE BEST WINDS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO OPTED NOT TO GO WITH
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE 1) THE TIMING IS OFF AND 2) ITS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE JUST A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
PCPN AS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION... BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... BUT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH/EAST. SURFACE RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN ON NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT IS AT THAT POINT THAT THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A FAIR BIT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
BETTER COLD FRONT AND MORE UPPER TROUGHINESS IN ITS WAKE IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF. BOTH HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
PCPN CHANCES... HOWEVER... WITH CHANCE POPS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN THINGS
DRYING OUT SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING IN THAT AREA AND
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO ONLY IMPACTED LOCATIONS
ARE NOW KRNH...AND KEAU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W AT 15G20KT
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G15KT
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10G15KT


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281913
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND 50S BEHIND IT.

LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REASON BEING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE
WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD...WHICH CAPPED OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER WITH
TIME...WHICH DECREASED THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED POPS ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA...AND HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN
WESTERN WI.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 30KT MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT THE BEST WINDS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO OPTED NOT TO GO WITH
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE 1) THE TIMING IS OFF AND 2) ITS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE JUST A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
PCPN AS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION... BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... BUT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH/EAST. SURFACE RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN ON NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT IS AT THAT POINT THAT THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A FAIR BIT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
BETTER COLD FRONT AND MORE UPPER TROUGHINESS IN ITS WAKE IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF. BOTH HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
PCPN CHANCES... HOWEVER... WITH CHANCE POPS DROPPING IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN THINGS
DRYING OUT SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING IN THAT AREA AND
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO ONLY IMPACTED LOCATIONS
ARE NOW KRNH...AND KEAU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W AT 15G20KT
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G15KT
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10G15KT


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281801
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO ONLY IMPACTED LOCATIONS
ARE NOW KRNH...AND KEAU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W AT 15G20KT
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G15KT
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281801
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO ONLY IMPACTED LOCATIONS
ARE NOW KRNH...AND KEAU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W AT 15G20KT
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G15KT
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281801
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO ONLY IMPACTED LOCATIONS
ARE NOW KRNH...AND KEAU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W AT 15G20KT
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G15KT
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281801
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO ONLY IMPACTED LOCATIONS
ARE NOW KRNH...AND KEAU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W AT 15G20KT
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G15KT
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281148
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...SHOULD SEE A BREAK BY LATE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN HI-RES MODEL DISPARITIES AND DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER
ENOUGH SUN/HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM KMSP
EASTWARD TO KRNH/KEAU BY 21Z...ENDING DURING THE EVE. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY...THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.

KMSP...
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z...THEN ACTIVITY WANES WITH VFR EXPECTED
AFTER THAT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281148
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...SHOULD SEE A BREAK BY LATE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN HI-RES MODEL DISPARITIES AND DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER
ENOUGH SUN/HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM KMSP
EASTWARD TO KRNH/KEAU BY 21Z...ENDING DURING THE EVE. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY...THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.

KMSP...
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z...THEN ACTIVITY WANES WITH VFR EXPECTED
AFTER THAT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281148
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...SHOULD SEE A BREAK BY LATE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN HI-RES MODEL DISPARITIES AND DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER
ENOUGH SUN/HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM KMSP
EASTWARD TO KRNH/KEAU BY 21Z...ENDING DURING THE EVE. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY...THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.

KMSP...
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z...THEN ACTIVITY WANES WITH VFR EXPECTED
AFTER THAT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281148
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...SHOULD SEE A BREAK BY LATE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN HI-RES MODEL DISPARITIES AND DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER
ENOUGH SUN/HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM KMSP
EASTWARD TO KRNH/KEAU BY 21Z...ENDING DURING THE EVE. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY...THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.

KMSP...
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z...THEN ACTIVITY WANES WITH VFR EXPECTED
AFTER THAT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280907
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL REACH WESTERN MN
AROUND 09Z...THE TWIN CITIES NEAR 12Z AND KEAU AFTER 15Z. SOME
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LINE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...SKEWING THE TIME A LITTLE. THE
OVERALL TREND IN THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE TEMPO
GROUP BY AN HOUR OR SO. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWERING ON MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SE WINDS
AT 15-20KTS GUSTING 25KTS ARE LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
TWIN CITIES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHICH MEANS MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

KMSP...THE TIMING OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH TUESDAY
MORNING LOOKING BEST FOR PERHAPS TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS. AT THIS
POINT...INDICATED THE TEMPO FROM 12Z-15Z...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE
TOO EARLY AND NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING (17Z). MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY DUE TO HOW
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WORK OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280907
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL REACH WESTERN MN
AROUND 09Z...THE TWIN CITIES NEAR 12Z AND KEAU AFTER 15Z. SOME
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LINE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...SKEWING THE TIME A LITTLE. THE
OVERALL TREND IN THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE TEMPO
GROUP BY AN HOUR OR SO. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWERING ON MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SE WINDS
AT 15-20KTS GUSTING 25KTS ARE LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
TWIN CITIES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHICH MEANS MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

KMSP...THE TIMING OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH TUESDAY
MORNING LOOKING BEST FOR PERHAPS TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS. AT THIS
POINT...INDICATED THE TEMPO FROM 12Z-15Z...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE
TOO EARLY AND NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING (17Z). MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY DUE TO HOW
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WORK OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL REACH WESTERN MN
AROUND 09Z...THE TWIN CITIES NEAR 12Z AND KEAU AFTER 15Z. SOME
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LINE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...SKEWING THE TIME A LITTLE. THE
OVERALL TREND IN THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE TEMPO
GROUP BY AN HOUR OR SO. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWERING ON MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SE WINDS
AT 15-20KTS GUSTING 25KTS ARE LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
TWIN CITIES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHICH MEANS MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

KMSP...THE TIMING OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH TUESDAY
MORNING LOOKING BEST FOR PERHAPS TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS. AT THIS
POINT...INDICATED THE TEMPO FROM 12Z-15Z...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE
TOO EARLY AND NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING (17Z). MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY DUE TO HOW
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WORK OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL REACH WESTERN MN
AROUND 09Z...THE TWIN CITIES NEAR 12Z AND KEAU AFTER 15Z. SOME
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LINE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...SKEWING THE TIME A LITTLE. THE
OVERALL TREND IN THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE TEMPO
GROUP BY AN HOUR OR SO. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWERING ON MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SE WINDS
AT 15-20KTS GUSTING 25KTS ARE LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
TWIN CITIES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHICH MEANS MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

KMSP...THE TIMING OF THE SHRA/TSRA HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH TUESDAY
MORNING LOOKING BEST FOR PERHAPS TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS. AT THIS
POINT...INDICATED THE TEMPO FROM 12Z-15Z...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE
TOO EARLY AND NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING (17Z). MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY DUE TO HOW
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WORK OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272342
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST LOOK PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
LOWERS DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
BETWEEN SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...DUE
TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KAXN AND KSTC ON SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...PUSHED THE TIMING A LITTLE FORWARD ON THE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HELD TIGHT ON THE LOW
CEILINGS FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINAL AND EXPANDED THE
MVFR INTO THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS KRNH FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SE
WINDS TONIGHT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE INCREASING TO 15-20G25KTS
FOR EARLY TUESDAY.

KMSP...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z PERIOD WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
AIRFIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING (02Z). GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING (15-20G25KTS) WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 272342
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST LOOK PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
LOWERS DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
BETWEEN SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...DUE
TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KAXN AND KSTC ON SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...PUSHED THE TIMING A LITTLE FORWARD ON THE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HELD TIGHT ON THE LOW
CEILINGS FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINAL AND EXPANDED THE
MVFR INTO THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS KRNH FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SE
WINDS TONIGHT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE INCREASING TO 15-20G25KTS
FOR EARLY TUESDAY.

KMSP...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z PERIOD WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
AIRFIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING (02Z). GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING (15-20G25KTS) WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272342
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST LOOK PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
LOWERS DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
BETWEEN SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...DUE
TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KAXN AND KSTC ON SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...PUSHED THE TIMING A LITTLE FORWARD ON THE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HELD TIGHT ON THE LOW
CEILINGS FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINAL AND EXPANDED THE
MVFR INTO THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS KRNH FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SE
WINDS TONIGHT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE INCREASING TO 15-20G25KTS
FOR EARLY TUESDAY.

KMSP...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z PERIOD WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
AIRFIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING (02Z). GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING (15-20G25KTS) WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272342
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST LOOK PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
LOWERS DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
BETWEEN SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...DUE
TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KAXN AND KSTC ON SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...PUSHED THE TIMING A LITTLE FORWARD ON THE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HELD TIGHT ON THE LOW
CEILINGS FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINAL AND EXPANDED THE
MVFR INTO THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS KRNH FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SE
WINDS TONIGHT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE INCREASING TO 15-20G25KTS
FOR EARLY TUESDAY.

KMSP...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z PERIOD WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THE
AIRFIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING (02Z). GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING (15-20G25KTS) WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 272016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT...SO DID
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. MORNING CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LIFT
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

KMSP...
THE WARM FRONT CONVECTION IN THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST OF KMSP...AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL AFFECT THE METRO
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LINE. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF KMSP. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 272016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT...SO DID
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. MORNING CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LIFT
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

KMSP...
THE WARM FRONT CONVECTION IN THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST OF KMSP...AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL AFFECT THE METRO
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LINE. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF KMSP. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 272016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 990MB SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL INEVITABLY
DEVELOP...HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...HIRES MODELS ARE SLOW TO
CATCH ON TO THE MCS ACROSS IOWA...WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS GOING FORWARD.

THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE FIRST TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE STORMS ACROSS IOWA...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING AND DECREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CR-NAM NEST ILLUSTRATES THIS
SCENARIO NICELY. CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN RETROSPECT...THE LAST FEW NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING SYSTEMS HAVE
CAUSED THE PARENT BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THE NEXT DAYS CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
TOO FAR WEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAYS CONVECTION...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE PAST FEW IS THE
NOTABLE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY (AREA OF CONVERGENCE) SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...TOGETHER WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE BEST THREAT FOR
STORMS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALERT LEA MN THROUGH RICE
LAKE WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL... THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS THAT REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP THINGS FAIR AND DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH DOES LOOK TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY... BUT GIVEN
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT AND MEAGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT... IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. PCPN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE HEALTHY UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE... WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN THE GFS.
BUT... THE DIFFERENCES DON/T IMPACT THE OVERALL POPS TOO MUCH AT
THIS POINT... WITH CHANCES LOOKING WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE PCPN TRY TO WORK BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT... THERE ARE NO SIGNALS THROUGH PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN
OR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT...SO DID
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. MORNING CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LIFT
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

KMSP...
THE WARM FRONT CONVECTION IN THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST OF KMSP...AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL AFFECT THE METRO
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LINE. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF KMSP. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271745
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT...SO DID
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. MORNING CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LIFT
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

KMSP...
THE WARM FRONT CONVECTION IN THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST OF KMSP...AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL AFFECT THE METRO
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LINE. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF KMSP. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271745
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT...SO DID
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. MORNING CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LIFT
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

KMSP...
THE WARM FRONT CONVECTION IN THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST OF KMSP...AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL AFFECT THE METRO
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LINE. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF KMSP. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 271745
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT...SO DID
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. MORNING CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LIFT
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

KMSP...
THE WARM FRONT CONVECTION IN THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST OF KMSP...AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL AFFECT THE METRO
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LINE. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF KMSP. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271134
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
634 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AFTER THE PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVE/TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER/TS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT TODAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
WITH INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT /CAPPING/ AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT WE SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BLOSSOM OVER WESTERN
MN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND/AFTER
00Z OVER SOUTHWEST MN...WITH EASTWARD EXPANSION
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 15-20KT RANGE DEVELOPING AT MN SITES.

KMSP...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/TS POSSIBLE AFTER
09Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271134
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
634 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AFTER THE PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVE/TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER/TS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT TODAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
WITH INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT /CAPPING/ AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT WE SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BLOSSOM OVER WESTERN
MN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND/AFTER
00Z OVER SOUTHWEST MN...WITH EASTWARD EXPANSION
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 15-20KT RANGE DEVELOPING AT MN SITES.

KMSP...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/TS POSSIBLE AFTER
09Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AREA
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SURFACE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF EAU AND
STC. ALSO...MANY SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH SW MN AND IMPACT
RWF ON MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN MN AROUND RWF AND AXN...BUT WILL JUST
INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AREA
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SURFACE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF EAU AND
STC. ALSO...MANY SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH SW MN AND IMPACT
RWF ON MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN MN AROUND RWF AND AXN...BUT WILL JUST
INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 270900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95
DEGREES AT THEIR AFTERNOON MAX VALUES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WINDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE HEAT CONCERNS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL SEE H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +12C INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN THAT AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THIS EVENING /00Z TUESDAY/...MODELS INDICATE STRONG H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENSUE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. IT SEEMS TO TAKE AWHILE FOR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR...SO HAVE DELAYED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION REACH THE MN/WI BORDER UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY AFTN IF TUESDAY
MORNING CONVECTION EXIT MINNESOTA AND THE REGION CAN RECOVER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

FIRST...IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING THAT MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF MN TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHARP UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION /CURRENT
ANOMALY OF 85/70H MOISTURE ADVECTION IS 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/ SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS MN DURING THE
MORNING. HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES REMAINS THE MAIN
DILEMMA FOR RECOVERY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BISECTING THE STATE
AROUND NOON ON TUE. THE AMT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED...AN EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE IN
TERMS OF SVR WX IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS FRONT. ONE OF THE CIPS
ANALOGS IS JUNE 17 2010 WHERE MN HAD ITS BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES. AN AVERAGE OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS HAS 60/70% OF AT LEAST
ONE SVR WX REPORT IN SOUTHERN MN TUE AFTN. THERE IS EVEN A 20/30%
CHC OF 10 SVR WX REPORTS BASED ON THESE 15 TOP ANALOGS ON THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN 27/00Z. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY BASED ON TUESDAY
AFTN RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN EASTERN MN TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS ARND 1.75"
TO 2.00". IF ANY TRAINING OF THE TSRA DEVELOPS THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THESE TYPE OF PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES PER HR.

ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
MPX CWA BY 6Z...WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT OUR OPPRESSIVE DEW PTS IN THE
70S...WITH 50S LIKELY FOR WED/THU.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE JET STREAM NEARLY OVERHEAD...AND SOME RETURN
FLOW WITH DEW PTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...ANOTHER CHC OF SVR WX
IS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AREA
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SURFACE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF EAU AND
STC. ALSO...MANY SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH SW MN AND IMPACT
RWF ON MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN MN AROUND RWF AND AXN...BUT WILL JUST
INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AREA
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SURFACE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF EAU AND
STC. ALSO...MANY SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH SW MN AND IMPACT
RWF ON MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN MN AROUND RWF AND AXN...BUT WILL JUST
INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 270356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AREA
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SURFACE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF EAU AND
STC. ALSO...MANY SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH SW MN AND IMPACT
RWF ON MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN MN AROUND RWF AND AXN...BUT WILL JUST
INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 270356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AREA
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SURFACE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF EAU AND
STC. ALSO...MANY SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH SW MN AND IMPACT
RWF ON MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN MN AROUND RWF AND AXN...BUT WILL JUST
INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 262335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND A
DEVELOPING INVERSION COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE EAU TERMINAL FROM
10-13Z...WHERE WINDS COULD GO CALM UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
AND CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS LOCATION. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE MODELS
HAVE SHOWN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION REMAIN
LOW FOR NOW. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
KTS BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING BY MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 262335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND A
DEVELOPING INVERSION COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE EAU TERMINAL FROM
10-13Z...WHERE WINDS COULD GO CALM UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
AND CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS LOCATION. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE MODELS
HAVE SHOWN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION REMAIN
LOW FOR NOW. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
KTS BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING BY MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 262045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 262045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 262045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG





000
FXUS63 KMPX 261829
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. WE HAVE A REMNANT
H7 LOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT IS NOW STUCK BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS HAS KEPT MID CLOUDS GOING ALONG THE MN/WI
BORDER AND RAP/NAM SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
MN/WI WHERE...WHERE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IS NOW UNLIKELY. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT...LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF ISO
THUNDER AROUND SE MN. RAP SHOWS A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SHOW SOME ISO ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING HERE AS WELL...SO FELT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME
JUSTIFICATION FOR LEAVING POPS IN DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HI-RES MODELS SHOW
700 MB TEMPS/HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...WITH AN H7
TEMP CIRCA +11C OR GREATER DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CAMS
MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE THERE IS
NOT ANY SORT OF WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM TO SPARK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAINT MIDLEVEL ENERGY
OVERHEAD...FEEL A 20 POP IS WARRANTED.

ANY CONVECTION WOULD COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET...WITH A MUGGY
SUMMER NIGHT AHEAD...AS LOW TEMPS HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BELOW THAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS HOT/HUMID AND UNSETTLED
AT THE BEGINNING...THEN TURNING COOLER AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDS VERY
WARM AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE URBAN AREA OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA WOULD GET A HEAT ADVISORY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BASED ON THESE CONDS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER MORE
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FULL SUNSHINE AND LOWER AFTN HIGHS.

THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW MONDAY TO WARRANT ISOLD TSRA IN EC MN/WC WI...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARND 7.0 TO 7.5C.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WX AND THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX WILL BEGIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG THE INCREASING LLJ
SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHOULD WARRANT
THIS SIGNIFICANT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MPX CWA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SVR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SPC IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING
OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX. A BETTER CHC OF
SVR WX IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PROBLEM
WITH TUESDAY IS A VERY STRONG CAP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
70H TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 14C. IT MAYBE LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE
THIS CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHICH LEADS TO MORE SVR WX SE OF MPX CWA.
THE MAIN PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO MN UNTIL AFT TUESDAY EVENING. SO...THE STRONG CAP COULD
PRECLUDE AN ACTIVE TUESDAY EVENING IN MN...AND THE MAIN FOCUS IN
WI/IA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.

PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRING DRIER WX AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG





000
FXUS63 KMPX 261829
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. WE HAVE A REMNANT
H7 LOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT IS NOW STUCK BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS HAS KEPT MID CLOUDS GOING ALONG THE MN/WI
BORDER AND RAP/NAM SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
MN/WI WHERE...WHERE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IS NOW UNLIKELY. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT...LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF ISO
THUNDER AROUND SE MN. RAP SHOWS A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SHOW SOME ISO ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING HERE AS WELL...SO FELT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME
JUSTIFICATION FOR LEAVING POPS IN DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HI-RES MODELS SHOW
700 MB TEMPS/HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...WITH AN H7
TEMP CIRCA +11C OR GREATER DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CAMS
MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE THERE IS
NOT ANY SORT OF WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM TO SPARK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAINT MIDLEVEL ENERGY
OVERHEAD...FEEL A 20 POP IS WARRANTED.

ANY CONVECTION WOULD COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET...WITH A MUGGY
SUMMER NIGHT AHEAD...AS LOW TEMPS HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BELOW THAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS HOT/HUMID AND UNSETTLED
AT THE BEGINNING...THEN TURNING COOLER AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDS VERY
WARM AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE URBAN AREA OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA WOULD GET A HEAT ADVISORY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BASED ON THESE CONDS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER MORE
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FULL SUNSHINE AND LOWER AFTN HIGHS.

THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW MONDAY TO WARRANT ISOLD TSRA IN EC MN/WC WI...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARND 7.0 TO 7.5C.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WX AND THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX WILL BEGIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG THE INCREASING LLJ
SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHOULD WARRANT
THIS SIGNIFICANT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MPX CWA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SVR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SPC IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING
OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX. A BETTER CHC OF
SVR WX IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PROBLEM
WITH TUESDAY IS A VERY STRONG CAP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
70H TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 14C. IT MAYBE LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE
THIS CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHICH LEADS TO MORE SVR WX SE OF MPX CWA.
THE MAIN PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO MN UNTIL AFT TUESDAY EVENING. SO...THE STRONG CAP COULD
PRECLUDE AN ACTIVE TUESDAY EVENING IN MN...AND THE MAIN FOCUS IN
WI/IA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.

PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRING DRIER WX AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 261829
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. WE HAVE A REMNANT
H7 LOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT IS NOW STUCK BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS HAS KEPT MID CLOUDS GOING ALONG THE MN/WI
BORDER AND RAP/NAM SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
MN/WI WHERE...WHERE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IS NOW UNLIKELY. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT...LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF ISO
THUNDER AROUND SE MN. RAP SHOWS A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SHOW SOME ISO ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING HERE AS WELL...SO FELT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME
JUSTIFICATION FOR LEAVING POPS IN DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HI-RES MODELS SHOW
700 MB TEMPS/HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...WITH AN H7
TEMP CIRCA +11C OR GREATER DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CAMS
MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE THERE IS
NOT ANY SORT OF WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM TO SPARK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAINT MIDLEVEL ENERGY
OVERHEAD...FEEL A 20 POP IS WARRANTED.

ANY CONVECTION WOULD COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET...WITH A MUGGY
SUMMER NIGHT AHEAD...AS LOW TEMPS HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BELOW THAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS HOT/HUMID AND UNSETTLED
AT THE BEGINNING...THEN TURNING COOLER AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDS VERY
WARM AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE URBAN AREA OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA WOULD GET A HEAT ADVISORY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BASED ON THESE CONDS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER MORE
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FULL SUNSHINE AND LOWER AFTN HIGHS.

THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW MONDAY TO WARRANT ISOLD TSRA IN EC MN/WC WI...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARND 7.0 TO 7.5C.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WX AND THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX WILL BEGIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG THE INCREASING LLJ
SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHOULD WARRANT
THIS SIGNIFICANT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MPX CWA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SVR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SPC IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING
OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX. A BETTER CHC OF
SVR WX IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PROBLEM
WITH TUESDAY IS A VERY STRONG CAP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
70H TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 14C. IT MAYBE LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE
THIS CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHICH LEADS TO MORE SVR WX SE OF MPX CWA.
THE MAIN PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO MN UNTIL AFT TUESDAY EVENING. SO...THE STRONG CAP COULD
PRECLUDE AN ACTIVE TUESDAY EVENING IN MN...AND THE MAIN FOCUS IN
WI/IA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.

PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRING DRIER WX AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 261829
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. WE HAVE A REMNANT
H7 LOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT IS NOW STUCK BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS HAS KEPT MID CLOUDS GOING ALONG THE MN/WI
BORDER AND RAP/NAM SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
MN/WI WHERE...WHERE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IS NOW UNLIKELY. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT...LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF ISO
THUNDER AROUND SE MN. RAP SHOWS A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SHOW SOME ISO ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING HERE AS WELL...SO FELT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME
JUSTIFICATION FOR LEAVING POPS IN DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HI-RES MODELS SHOW
700 MB TEMPS/HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...WITH AN H7
TEMP CIRCA +11C OR GREATER DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CAMS
MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE THERE IS
NOT ANY SORT OF WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM TO SPARK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAINT MIDLEVEL ENERGY
OVERHEAD...FEEL A 20 POP IS WARRANTED.

ANY CONVECTION WOULD COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET...WITH A MUGGY
SUMMER NIGHT AHEAD...AS LOW TEMPS HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BELOW THAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS HOT/HUMID AND UNSETTLED
AT THE BEGINNING...THEN TURNING COOLER AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDS VERY
WARM AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE URBAN AREA OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA WOULD GET A HEAT ADVISORY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BASED ON THESE CONDS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER MORE
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FULL SUNSHINE AND LOWER AFTN HIGHS.

THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW MONDAY TO WARRANT ISOLD TSRA IN EC MN/WC WI...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARND 7.0 TO 7.5C.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WX AND THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX WILL BEGIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG THE INCREASING LLJ
SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHOULD WARRANT
THIS SIGNIFICANT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MPX CWA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SVR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SPC IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING
OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX. A BETTER CHC OF
SVR WX IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PROBLEM
WITH TUESDAY IS A VERY STRONG CAP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
70H TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 14C. IT MAYBE LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE
THIS CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHICH LEADS TO MORE SVR WX SE OF MPX CWA.
THE MAIN PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO MN UNTIL AFT TUESDAY EVENING. SO...THE STRONG CAP COULD
PRECLUDE AN ACTIVE TUESDAY EVENING IN MN...AND THE MAIN FOCUS IN
WI/IA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.

PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRING DRIER WX AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG





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