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000
FXUS63 KMPX 080402
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS
FRONT IN FAR SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND
UNSETTLED WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER AND NEARLY CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS
THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC.
THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS.
KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY
SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS
SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN
HIGH DECKS EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY MRNG HOURS THRU TMRW EVE...WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MIDLVL DECKS EXPECTED LATE MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WITH DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ON S BY TMRW AFTN. NO CEILING/VSBY/WX ISSUES.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 080402
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS
FRONT IN FAR SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND
UNSETTLED WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER AND NEARLY CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS
THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC.
THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS.
KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY
SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS
SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN
HIGH DECKS EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY MRNG HOURS THRU TMRW EVE...WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MIDLVL DECKS EXPECTED LATE MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WITH DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ON S BY TMRW AFTN. NO CEILING/VSBY/WX ISSUES.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 080402
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS
FRONT IN FAR SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND
UNSETTLED WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER AND NEARLY CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS
THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC.
THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS.
KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY
SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS
SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN
HIGH DECKS EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY MRNG HOURS THRU TMRW EVE...WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MIDLVL DECKS EXPECTED LATE MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WITH DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ON S BY TMRW AFTN. NO CEILING/VSBY/WX ISSUES.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 080009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS
FRONT IN FAR SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND
UNSETTLED WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER AND NEARLY CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS
THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC.
THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS.
KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY
SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS
SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN
HIGH DECKS EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY MRNG HOURS THRU TMRW EVE...WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MIDLVL DECKS EXPECTED LATE MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WITH DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ON S BY TMRW AFTN. NO CEILING/VSBY/WX ISSUES.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 080009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS
FRONT IN FAR SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND
UNSETTLED WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER AND NEARLY CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS
THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC.
THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS.
KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY
SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS
SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN
HIGH DECKS EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY MRNG HOURS THRU TMRW EVE...WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MIDLVL DECKS EXPECTED LATE MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WITH DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ON S BY TMRW AFTN. NO CEILING/VSBY/WX ISSUES.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 080009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS
FRONT IN FAR SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND
UNSETTLED WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER AND NEARLY CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS
THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC.
THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS.
KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY
SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS
SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN
HIGH DECKS EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY MRNG HOURS THRU TMRW EVE...WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MIDLVL DECKS EXPECTED LATE MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WITH DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ON S BY TMRW AFTN. NO CEILING/VSBY/WX ISSUES.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 072105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S OVER
THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS FRONT IN FAR
SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE
FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND NEARLY
CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND
ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS. KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS
NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND
OF SEVERAL MODELS SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE
WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL YIELD SCT-BKN SKIES THROUGH 23Z...AFTER WHICH
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL SEE A RE-INTRODUCTION OF CU
AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WILL ALSO SEE A BIT OF SMOKE RETURNING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY.

KMSP...
THE SCT DECK AT 4500 FT WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z...THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUST TO
BETWEEN 17 AND 19 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVE. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 072105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S OVER
THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS FRONT IN FAR
SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE
FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND NEARLY
CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND
ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS. KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS
NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND
OF SEVERAL MODELS SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE
WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL YIELD SCT-BKN SKIES THROUGH 23Z...AFTER WHICH
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL SEE A RE-INTRODUCTION OF CU
AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WILL ALSO SEE A BIT OF SMOKE RETURNING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY.

KMSP...
THE SCT DECK AT 4500 FT WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z...THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUST TO
BETWEEN 17 AND 19 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVE. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 071808
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL YIELD SCT-BKN SKIES THROUGH 23Z...AFTER WHICH
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL SEE A RE-INTRODUCTION OF CU
AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WILL ALSO SEE A BIT OF SMOKE RETURNING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY.

KMSP...
THE SCT DECK AT 4500 FT WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z...THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUST TO
BETWEEN 17 AND 19 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVE. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 071808
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL YIELD SCT-BKN SKIES THROUGH 23Z...AFTER WHICH
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL SEE A RE-INTRODUCTION OF CU
AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WILL ALSO SEE A BIT OF SMOKE RETURNING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY.

KMSP...
THE SCT DECK AT 4500 FT WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z...THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUST TO
BETWEEN 17 AND 19 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVE. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 071808
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL YIELD SCT-BKN SKIES THROUGH 23Z...AFTER WHICH
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL SEE A RE-INTRODUCTION OF CU
AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WILL ALSO SEE A BIT OF SMOKE RETURNING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY.

KMSP...
THE SCT DECK AT 4500 FT WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z...THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUST TO
BETWEEN 17 AND 19 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVE. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 071201
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BKN-OVC045 WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND FAR
EASTERN MN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. SCT CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. KMPX UPPER AIR
PROFILE THIS MORNING SHOWING 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
THAT WILL LIKELY MIX-DOWN THIS MORNING. HENCE...ADDED SOME GUSTS
FOR KMPX...KRNH AND KEAU. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KRNH AND KEAU. THE FOG AT KEAU WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FOG WITH A LIGHT NE WIND NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH
WORSE THAN FORECAST...IE VLIFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NO REDUCTION IN
THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE NOAA AIR
POLLUTION GUIDANCE FORECASTS SHOWING IT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST.

KMSP...THE WESTERN EDGE OF BKN045 WILL BRUSH THE TWIN CITIES THIS
MORNING WITH CLR-SCT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO
15-18 KNOTS THIS MORNING AS WELL IN THE NNE FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 071201
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BKN-OVC045 WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND FAR
EASTERN MN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. SCT CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. KMPX UPPER AIR
PROFILE THIS MORNING SHOWING 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
THAT WILL LIKELY MIX-DOWN THIS MORNING. HENCE...ADDED SOME GUSTS
FOR KMPX...KRNH AND KEAU. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KRNH AND KEAU. THE FOG AT KEAU WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FOG WITH A LIGHT NE WIND NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH
WORSE THAN FORECAST...IE VLIFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NO REDUCTION IN
THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE NOAA AIR
POLLUTION GUIDANCE FORECASTS SHOWING IT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST.

KMSP...THE WESTERN EDGE OF BKN045 WILL BRUSH THE TWIN CITIES THIS
MORNING WITH CLR-SCT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO
15-18 KNOTS THIS MORNING AS WELL IN THE NNE FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 071201
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BKN-OVC045 WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND FAR
EASTERN MN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. SCT CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. KMPX UPPER AIR
PROFILE THIS MORNING SHOWING 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
THAT WILL LIKELY MIX-DOWN THIS MORNING. HENCE...ADDED SOME GUSTS
FOR KMPX...KRNH AND KEAU. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KRNH AND KEAU. THE FOG AT KEAU WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FOG WITH A LIGHT NE WIND NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH
WORSE THAN FORECAST...IE VLIFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NO REDUCTION IN
THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE NOAA AIR
POLLUTION GUIDANCE FORECASTS SHOWING IT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST.

KMSP...THE WESTERN EDGE OF BKN045 WILL BRUSH THE TWIN CITIES THIS
MORNING WITH CLR-SCT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO
15-18 KNOTS THIS MORNING AS WELL IN THE NNE FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 071201
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BKN-OVC045 WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND FAR
EASTERN MN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. SCT CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. KMPX UPPER AIR
PROFILE THIS MORNING SHOWING 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
THAT WILL LIKELY MIX-DOWN THIS MORNING. HENCE...ADDED SOME GUSTS
FOR KMPX...KRNH AND KEAU. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KRNH AND KEAU. THE FOG AT KEAU WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FOG WITH A LIGHT NE WIND NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH
WORSE THAN FORECAST...IE VLIFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NO REDUCTION IN
THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE NOAA AIR
POLLUTION GUIDANCE FORECASTS SHOWING IT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST.

KMSP...THE WESTERN EDGE OF BKN045 WILL BRUSH THE TWIN CITIES THIS
MORNING WITH CLR-SCT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO
15-18 KNOTS THIS MORNING AS WELL IN THE NNE FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 070907
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FINE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRE SMOKE THAT CAUSED SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A BAND OF SURFACE BASED FIRE SMOKE WILL EXTEND FROM NEBRASKA
ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE VERTICAL SMOKE INTEGRATION FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOME HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE AND A MILKY SKY WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE DAY AHEAD HAS A FEW OTHER CONCERNS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME DISSIPATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE FORWARD EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE STRONG DOWNGLIDE
NOTED ON THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MN AND WI TODAY...MORE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INDICATED WITH THE RATHER
NEGATIVE CU RULE FROM THE NAM/RAP THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITION IN
THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHORT TERM CLOUDY PERIODS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL WI. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MN.

HIGHS TODAY FROM MIX-DOWN AT 850 MB WERE LOWER THAN THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THEREFORE...TRENDED LIGHTLY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THIS IS SOME 12 TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. USED MIX-DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WHICH BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. CONTINUED
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50 ELSEWHERE. INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN WI WITH THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BEING MET. INDICATED MOST OF THE FOG IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT A LOT OF CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND...WHEN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHEN A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH WORKS EAST...THE RETURN OF SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS...FAVORED THE
HIGH FORECAST MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO WARM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE NAM/GFS.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT
AROUND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT. WE ARE SEEING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS FRONT GETS
UP HERE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER.
DOING A DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT BOTH HAVE BEEN
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLOWING. THIS SLOWING
MAKES SENSE...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...ALL 15 OF THE TOP MATCHES FOR WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SHOW A HEALTHY BURST OF QPF OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE WILL SEE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE. BASED ON HOW THE
GFS/ECMWF ORIENT THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEEING A COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE
MOMENT WOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST MN TO NORTHEAST IL.

AFTER FRIDAY...ITS A MATTER OF WHERE WILL THE FRONT END UP. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SAY WE SHOULD SEE A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE
MPX AREA WHILE ALSO SITTING ON THE NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE
HAVE A RING OF FIRE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONE MODEL THAT WAS AVOIDED...AT LEAST FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WAS THE GFS...AS ITS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE NOTHING
SHORT OF UNREALISTIC. STILL...THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF HAS H85
TEMPS OF NEARLY 25C COMING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
90S...AS EVEN THE SRN ECMWF SHOWS THE WARM FRONT GETTING UP TO I-94
BY THEN. BESIDE THESE TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS WEEKEND...SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF THE
MAX HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE CIPS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY REACHES 60 PERCENT IN SW MN...SO BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL HEAT ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS CLEARED AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX TAF
SITES SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE ALL SITES WITH VFR. ONLY
SITE THAT IS IN QUESTION IS KEAU...BUT WILL MONITOR OBS AROUND 06Z
AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. THEN ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VFR
THRU TMRW EVE. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF HAVING SMOKE RE-
DEVELOP LATE MRNG WITH SOME MIXING BUT AIR QUALITY MODELS INDICATE
SMOKE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY TO LOWER THAN VFR VSBY. NO
CEILING/WX/WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 070401
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF SMOKE/HAZE INTO THE REGION
AND ANY FOG THREAT IN THE EAST.

DRY SURGE DROPPING IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT.  THICKER SMOKE MIXED
OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPREADING RAPIDLY
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.  WILL MENTION SOME AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A
SMOKE FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.  DRIER
DEWPOINTS WORKING OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.  MAYBE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER AND MOIST GROUND.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE BENIGN...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINS
DISPLACED WELL OUT OF THE AREA. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

IN THE MEANTIME...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE
MOVING IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE FROM VALUES IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...TO UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO A SHOT AT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
H85 TEMPS AROUND +25C. CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THAT HOWEVER...SO
HAVE STUCK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS CLEARED AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX TAF
SITES SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE ALL SITES WITH VFR. ONLY
SITE THAT IS IN QUESTION IS KEAU...BUT WILL MONITOR OBS AROUND 06Z
AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. THEN ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VFR
THRU TMRW EVE. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF HAVING SMOKE RE-
DEVELOP LATE MRNG WITH SOME MIXING BUT AIR QUALITY MODELS INDICATE
SMOKE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY TO LOWER THAN VFR VSBY. NO
CEILING/WX/WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 070401
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF SMOKE/HAZE INTO THE REGION
AND ANY FOG THREAT IN THE EAST.

DRY SURGE DROPPING IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT.  THICKER SMOKE MIXED
OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPREADING RAPIDLY
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.  WILL MENTION SOME AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A
SMOKE FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.  DRIER
DEWPOINTS WORKING OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.  MAYBE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER AND MOIST GROUND.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE BENIGN...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINS
DISPLACED WELL OUT OF THE AREA. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

IN THE MEANTIME...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE
MOVING IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE FROM VALUES IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...TO UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO A SHOT AT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
H85 TEMPS AROUND +25C. CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THAT HOWEVER...SO
HAVE STUCK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS CLEARED AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX TAF
SITES SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE ALL SITES WITH VFR. ONLY
SITE THAT IS IN QUESTION IS KEAU...BUT WILL MONITOR OBS AROUND 06Z
AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. THEN ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VFR
THRU TMRW EVE. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF HAVING SMOKE RE-
DEVELOP LATE MRNG WITH SOME MIXING BUT AIR QUALITY MODELS INDICATE
SMOKE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY TO LOWER THAN VFR VSBY. NO
CEILING/WX/WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070010
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF SMOKE/HAZE INTO THE REGION
AND ANY FOG THREAT IN THE EAST.

DRY SURGE DROPPING IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT.  THICKER SMOKE MIXED
OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPREADING RAPIDLY
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.  WILL MENTION SOME AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A
SMOKE FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.  DRIER
DEWPOINTS WORKING OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.  MAYBE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER AND MOIST GROUND.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE BENIGN...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINS
DISPLACED WELL OUT OF THE AREA. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

IN THE MEANTIME...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE
MOVING IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE FROM VALUES IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...TO UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO A SHOT AT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
H85 TEMPS AROUND +25C. CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THAT HOWEVER...SO
HAVE STUCK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ASIDE FROM BROAD SWATHS OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
BLANKETING THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CDFNT OF TDA... NO
AVIATION ISSUES ARE EVIDENT. VSBY WILL START OUT AS A MIXTURE OF
MVFR AND IFR THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR BY LATE THIS
EVE AS THE INVERSION SETS IN. ONCE DEEPER MIXING RESUMES AFTER
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG...THERE IS A DECENT CHC OF SEEING THE SMOKE
REGAIN TRACTION ON DETERIORATING VSBYS DURG THE DAY TMRW.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT IN THIS SCENARIO ATTM BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SO FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED FU AT ALL SITES THRU TMRW AFTN
BUT KEPT VSBY AT MINIMAL VFR 6SM.

KMSP...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
FU/VSBY CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 070010
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF SMOKE/HAZE INTO THE REGION
AND ANY FOG THREAT IN THE EAST.

DRY SURGE DROPPING IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT.  THICKER SMOKE MIXED
OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPREADING RAPIDLY
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.  WILL MENTION SOME AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A
SMOKE FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.  DRIER
DEWPOINTS WORKING OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.  MAYBE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER AND MOIST GROUND.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE BENIGN...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINS
DISPLACED WELL OUT OF THE AREA. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

IN THE MEANTIME...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE
MOVING IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE FROM VALUES IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...TO UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO A SHOT AT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
H85 TEMPS AROUND +25C. CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THAT HOWEVER...SO
HAVE STUCK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ASIDE FROM BROAD SWATHS OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
BLANKETING THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CDFNT OF TDA... NO
AVIATION ISSUES ARE EVIDENT. VSBY WILL START OUT AS A MIXTURE OF
MVFR AND IFR THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR BY LATE THIS
EVE AS THE INVERSION SETS IN. ONCE DEEPER MIXING RESUMES AFTER
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG...THERE IS A DECENT CHC OF SEEING THE SMOKE
REGAIN TRACTION ON DETERIORATING VSBYS DURG THE DAY TMRW.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT IN THIS SCENARIO ATTM BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SO FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED FU AT ALL SITES THRU TMRW AFTN
BUT KEPT VSBY AT MINIMAL VFR 6SM.

KMSP...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
FU/VSBY CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 062121
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF SMOKE/HAZE INTO THE REGION
AND ANY FOG THREAT IN THE EAST.

DRY SURGE DROPPING IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT.  THICKER SMOKE MIXED
OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPREADING RAPIDLY
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.  WILL MENTION SOME AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A
SMOKE FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.  DRIER
DEWPOINTS WORKING OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.  MAYBE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER AND MOIST GROUND.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE BENIGN...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINS
DISPLACED WELL OUT OF THE AREA. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

IN THE MEANTIME...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE
MOVING IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE FROM VALUES IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...TO UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO A SHOT AT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
H85 TEMPS AROUND +25C. CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THAT HOWEVER...SO
HAVE STUCK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT EXITING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE A COLD
FRONT/FGEN REGION. THIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY WILL END THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FARTHER WEST...MVFR CIGS SHIFTING EAST...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING. HZ/FU ANOTHER ISSUE AS IT HAS BEEN BLOWN SOUTH OVER
WESTERN AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SMOKE IS ADVANCING
SOUTH...AND MAY CLEAR OUT DISSIPATE OVER THE WEST LATE. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN THE SMOKE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE FOG WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. COULD SEE SOME INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE. WINDS N-NW
AN GUSTY WITH FROPA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
01Z MON. EXPECT VFR TUE.

KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END THROUGH 20Z-21Z WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH 01Z TUE. MAY SEE A SMOKE
ISSUE INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL LEAVE 6SM HZ FOR NOW. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
AND TUE WITH NORTH WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 061729
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT EXITING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE A COLD
FRONT/FGEN REGION. THIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY WILL END THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FARTHER WEST...MVFR CIGS SHIFTING EAST...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING. HZ/FU ANOTHER ISSUE AS IT HAS BEEN BLOWN SOUTH OVER
WESTERN AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SMOKE IS ADVANCING
SOUTH...AND MAY CLEAR OUT DISSIPATE OVER THE WEST LATE. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN THE SMOKE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE FOG WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. COULD SEE SOME INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE. WINDS N-NW
AN GUSTY WITH FROPA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
01Z MON. EXPECT VFR TUE.

KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END THROUGH 20Z-21Z WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH 01Z TUE. MAY SEE A SMOKE
ISSUE INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL LEAVE 6SM HZ FOR NOW. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
AND TUE WITH NORTH WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 061729
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT EXITING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE A COLD
FRONT/FGEN REGION. THIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY WILL END THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FARTHER WEST...MVFR CIGS SHIFTING EAST...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING. HZ/FU ANOTHER ISSUE AS IT HAS BEEN BLOWN SOUTH OVER
WESTERN AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SMOKE IS ADVANCING
SOUTH...AND MAY CLEAR OUT DISSIPATE OVER THE WEST LATE. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN THE SMOKE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE FOG WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. COULD SEE SOME INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE. WINDS N-NW
AN GUSTY WITH FROPA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
01Z MON. EXPECT VFR TUE.

KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END THROUGH 20Z-21Z WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH 01Z TUE. MAY SEE A SMOKE
ISSUE INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL LEAVE 6SM HZ FOR NOW. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
AND TUE WITH NORTH WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 061209
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING KEAU AROUND 19Z. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF KEAU WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IFR/LOW MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON IN
THE SHOWERS AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

KMSP...CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHRA WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NNW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
     058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 061209
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING KEAU AROUND 19Z. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF KEAU WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IFR/LOW MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON IN
THE SHOWERS AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

KMSP...CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHRA WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NNW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
     058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060914
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FFA EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL INTO WESTERN WI
AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM. SOME COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE
NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH METRO...WITH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WITH CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A LARGER...ALBEIT LIGHTER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS LINE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AS WINDS BECOME NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMSP...SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 06Z WITH THE HEAVIEST ARRIVING
BETWEEN 07-10Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
     058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>025.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 060914
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FFA EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL INTO WESTERN WI
AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM. SOME COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE
NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH METRO...WITH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WITH CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A LARGER...ALBEIT LIGHTER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS LINE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AS WINDS BECOME NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMSP...SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 06Z WITH THE HEAVIEST ARRIVING
BETWEEN 07-10Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
     058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>025.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060458 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MN. A BAND OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN SODAK NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD HAS
PRODUCED MORE THAN 2 INCHES NEAR MORRIS LAST HOUR...AND IT IS
STILL RAINING VERY HEAVILY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW THE QLCS
WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL. GIVEN IT/S
RELATIVE NARROW NATURE AT LEAST AT THE PRESENT TIME...NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IS INCREASING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. HOPWRF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IS OVER 90 PERCENT IN THAT AREA...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTHEAST UP THE LINE TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AS
WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES AND LOW TO MEDIUM FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A LARGER...ALBEIT LIGHTER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS LINE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AS WINDS BECOME NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMSP...SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 06Z WITH THE HEAVIEST ARRIVING
BETWEEN 07-10Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ047>070-
     073>077-082>084-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060458 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MN. A BAND OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN SODAK NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD HAS
PRODUCED MORE THAN 2 INCHES NEAR MORRIS LAST HOUR...AND IT IS
STILL RAINING VERY HEAVILY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW THE QLCS
WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL. GIVEN IT/S
RELATIVE NARROW NATURE AT LEAST AT THE PRESENT TIME...NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IS INCREASING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. HOPWRF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IS OVER 90 PERCENT IN THAT AREA...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTHEAST UP THE LINE TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AS
WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES AND LOW TO MEDIUM FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A LARGER...ALBEIT LIGHTER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS LINE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AS WINDS BECOME NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMSP...SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 06Z WITH THE HEAVIEST ARRIVING
BETWEEN 07-10Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ047>070-
     073>077-082>084-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 060216 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MN. A BAND OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN SODAK NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD HAS
PRODUCED MORE THAN 2 INCHES NEAR MORRIS LAST HOUR...AND IT IS
STILL RAINING VERY HEAVILY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW THE QLCS
WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL. GIVEN IT/S
RELATIVE NARROW NATURE AT LEAST AT THE PRESENT TIME...NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IS INCREASING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. HOPWRF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IS OVER 90 PERCENT IN THAT AREA...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTHEAST UP THE LINE TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AS
WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES AND LOW TO MEDIUM FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ047>070-
     073>077-082>084-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KMPX 060216 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MN. A BAND OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN SODAK NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD HAS
PRODUCED MORE THAN 2 INCHES NEAR MORRIS LAST HOUR...AND IT IS
STILL RAINING VERY HEAVILY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW THE QLCS
WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL. GIVEN IT/S
RELATIVE NARROW NATURE AT LEAST AT THE PRESENT TIME...NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IS INCREASING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. HOPWRF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IS OVER 90 PERCENT IN THAT AREA...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTHEAST UP THE LINE TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AS
WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES AND LOW TO MEDIUM FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ047>070-
     073>077-082>084-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060216 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MN. A BAND OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN SODAK NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD HAS
PRODUCED MORE THAN 2 INCHES NEAR MORRIS LAST HOUR...AND IT IS
STILL RAINING VERY HEAVILY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW THE QLCS
WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL. GIVEN IT/S
RELATIVE NARROW NATURE AT LEAST AT THE PRESENT TIME...NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IS INCREASING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. HOPWRF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IS OVER 90 PERCENT IN THAT AREA...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTHEAST UP THE LINE TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AS
WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES AND LOW TO MEDIUM FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ047>070-
     073>077-082>084-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KMPX 060003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KMPX 060003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MID MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 052049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MID MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MID MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 052049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MID MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051806
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MIDMORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 051806
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MIDMORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VCSH USED AT KRWF AND
KAXN. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOW STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IMPACT
KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF IN THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS INSERTED INTO
THE TEMPO GROUPS AS THE STORMS BOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS TIME...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE
LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS/VSBYS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL BE MVFR
OR LOWER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON AFTN...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 051140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VCSH USED AT KRWF AND
KAXN. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOW STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IMPACT
KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF IN THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS INSERTED INTO
THE TEMPO GROUPS AS THE STORMS BOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS TIME...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE
LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS/VSBYS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL BE MVFR
OR LOWER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON AFTN...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VCSH USED AT KRWF AND
KAXN. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOW STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IMPACT
KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF IN THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS INSERTED INTO
THE TEMPO GROUPS AS THE STORMS BOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS TIME...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE
LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS/VSBYS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL BE MVFR
OR LOWER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON AFTN...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 051140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VCSH USED AT KRWF AND
KAXN. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOW STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IMPACT
KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF IN THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS INSERTED INTO
THE TEMPO GROUPS AS THE STORMS BOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS TIME...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE
LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS/VSBYS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL BE MVFR
OR LOWER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON AFTN...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050846
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD IS REMAINING
HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD
PERSIST AT EAU AND RNH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HAZE...AND BETWEEN
09Z-13Z THIS COULD BECOME IFR AS THE CONDENSATION NUCLEI FROM THE
SMOKE COULD HELP PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR. THE SMOKE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW STORMS COULD
PUSH INTO WESTERN MN IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND AXN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING...WITH A
LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
00-06Z. RWF AND STC COULD POTENTIALLY BE IMPACTED BEFORE 06Z AS
WELL WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING LOOK LIKE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

KMSP...SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AT THE
TERMINAL...AND ALTHOUGH THE THICKEST HAZE WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST...MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MSP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20 KTS AFTER NOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050846
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE  GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD IS REMAINING
HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD
PERSIST AT EAU AND RNH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HAZE...AND BETWEEN
09Z-13Z THIS COULD BECOME IFR AS THE CONDENSATION NUCLEI FROM THE
SMOKE COULD HELP PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR. THE SMOKE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW STORMS COULD
PUSH INTO WESTERN MN IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND AXN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING...WITH A
LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
00-06Z. RWF AND STC COULD POTENTIALLY BE IMPACTED BEFORE 06Z AS
WELL WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING LOOK LIKE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

KMSP...SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AT THE
TERMINAL...AND ALTHOUGH THE THICKEST HAZE WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST...MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MSP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20 KTS AFTER NOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL





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