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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH WAS JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 3PM. 20-30 KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE TROUGH SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS
INVERSION...WE ARE SEEING NO PRECIP GENERATION...BUT ARE SEEING A
STRATUS DECK EXPAND BENEATH THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST WITH THE TROUGH...CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. A 1020MB
HIGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS AT BAY.
WITH THE HIGH COMING IN...CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE CUT THINGS BACK A LITTLE
TOO MUCH AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
40S/50S...INDICATING WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94 AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE NE. ONLY CHANGE FOR
SATURDAY WAS TO BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO WHAT THE
WEIGHTED MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING...WHICH HAVE
BEEN THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS IN THESE SORTS OF AIR MASSES THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND ALSO BOOSTED
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE
PASSING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE 800-600MB FGEN
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST IN MOISTENING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE - NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. IT ALSO APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN KMSP AND KEAU...SO THE METRO MAY IN FACT MISS OUT ON THE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RAIN. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND
TROUGH SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF PRECIP/...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD /ALBEIT STILL LIGHT/ PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMALS IN MN/WI FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THE COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL NOT AS
COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED
IN THE 40S FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS.
ACTUALLY...THE PREVIOUS 24.06Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE AGREEABLE WITH
THE WARMER ECMWF...BUT BACKED OFF WITH THE MORNING RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN LATE
THIS EVENING. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN
THE VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
PRESSURE RISES AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN MN ATTM AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH KMSP...KRNH
AND KEAU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AT KRNH BY 07Z AND KEAU BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS. WINDS ON
SATURDAY BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY IS
FORECAST BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS NW ON SATURDAY
WITH 14G22KTS AFTER 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 242340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH WAS JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 3PM. 20-30 KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE TROUGH SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS
INVERSION...WE ARE SEEING NO PRECIP GENERATION...BUT ARE SEEING A
STRATUS DECK EXPAND BENEATH THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST WITH THE TROUGH...CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. A 1020MB
HIGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS AT BAY.
WITH THE HIGH COMING IN...CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE CUT THINGS BACK A LITTLE
TOO MUCH AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
40S/50S...INDICATING WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94 AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE NE. ONLY CHANGE FOR
SATURDAY WAS TO BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO WHAT THE
WEIGHTED MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING...WHICH HAVE
BEEN THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS IN THESE SORTS OF AIR MASSES THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND ALSO BOOSTED
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE
PASSING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE 800-600MB FGEN
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST IN MOISTENING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE - NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. IT ALSO APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN KMSP AND KEAU...SO THE METRO MAY IN FACT MISS OUT ON THE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RAIN. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND
TROUGH SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF PRECIP/...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD /ALBEIT STILL LIGHT/ PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMALS IN MN/WI FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THE COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL NOT AS
COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED
IN THE 40S FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS.
ACTUALLY...THE PREVIOUS 24.06Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE AGREEABLE WITH
THE WARMER ECMWF...BUT BACKED OFF WITH THE MORNING RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE GETTING WORSE THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF
BETTER IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS TEMPORARY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE TWO STATE BORDER AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE KEAU IS VFR. THE MN TAF SITES ARE
FINE WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND STAY THERE ON SATURDAY. PROFILE
DATA SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 20 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY FOR KSTC...KMSP...
KRNH AND KEAU FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WIND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
W AND THEN NW BEFORE DAYBREAK. RAISED THE SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS
A FEW KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 242106
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH WAS JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 3PM. 20-30 KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE TROUGH SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS
INVERSION...WE ARE SEEING NO PRECIP GENERATION...BUT ARE SEEING A
STRATUS DECK EXPAND BENEATH THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST WITH THE THROUGH...CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. A
1020MB HIGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS AT
BAY. WITH THE HIGH COMING IN...CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE CUT THINGS BACK A LITTLE
TOO MUCH AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S/50S...INDICATING
WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP AS AGGRESSIVELY AS WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94 AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE NE. ONLY CHANGE FOR
SATURDAY WAS TO BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO WHAT THE
WEIGHTED MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING...WHICH HAVE
BEEN THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS IN THESE SORTS OF AIRMASSES THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND ALSO BOOSTED
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE
PASSING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE 800-600MB FGEN
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST IN MOISTENING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE - NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. IT ALSO APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN KMSP AND KEAU...SO THE METRO MAY IN FACT MISS OUT ON THE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RAIN. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND
TROUGH SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF PRECIP/...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD /ALBEIT STILL LIGHT/ PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMALS IN MN/WI FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THE COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL NOT AS
COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED
IN THE 40S FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS.
ACTUALLY...THE PREVIOUS 24.06Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE AGREEABLE WITH
THE WARMER ECMWF...BUT BACKED OFF WITH THE MORNING RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH AT 18Z WAS NEAR A MKT/MSP/RZN LINE WITH A TONGUE OF
MVFR CIGS RACING NORTH TO THE EAST OF IT. RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE CIGS THIS MORNING...SO THIS FORECAST FAVORS TRENDS
FROM THOSE MODELS CLOSELY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN...SO THAT WILL KEEP ANY STRATUS/FOG OUT OF THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY AS A SFC HIGH GOES FROM SW
MN INTO IA.

KMSP...MVFR CLOUDS SHOWED UP AT THE SAME TIME AS THE SFC
TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MSP WILL BE BACK TO VFR AND
VFR FOR GOOD BY 20Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG









000
FXUS63 KMPX 241804
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
104 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING
DOWN TEMPS IN THE SE CWA DUE TO ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRST...S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGAN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WHICH LED TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE/FOG FORMATION IN EC/SE
MN TO HALT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOWER
CLDS/FOG ACROSS WC WI THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADV HAS BEEN DROPPED IN MN /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOODHUE CTY/.
EVEN IN WC WI...THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. MOST OF THE OBS WERE NOTING
LOW CIGS...BUT VSBYS WERE AOA 1SM. THE SW/S WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE MOISTURE SURGING N/NE ACROSS SC/SE/EC
MN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS MOST OF WC WI DURING THE AFTN.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH...WITH 60S A BETTER
SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN REASONABLE WITH
NEAR 80 IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN SE/SC MN
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST 10K...WAA IN THIS LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHRA TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP CONDS DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO LOOK
AT FOR LATER THIS MORNING.

NO CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AND ENDS CALMLY. IT/S THE MIDDLE
PORTION THAT IS UNSETTLED DUE TO A POTENT INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING A STORM SYSTEM WITH IT.

SATURDAY WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS OWN...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THRU SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING ITS AXIS TO MOVE ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURG THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED ON MODELS SO THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
TDA/S CDFNT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP SLOW
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PAC NW DURG THE DAY ON SUN WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A STRONGER LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE
EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
TROUGH WILL SHOVE THE CANADIAN /NRN STREAM/ LOW EWD WHILE PICKING
UP THE ROCKIES /SRN STREAM/ LOW. THE ROCKIES LOW AGAIN LOOKS
WEAKER IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...MAKING THE CANADIAN LOW THE
MAIN FEATURE BUT STILL WITH SFC FRONTS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS FROM IT. THE CONGLOMERATION OF THESE LOW PRES CENTERS WILL
SHIFT ACRS MN/WI MON THRU TUE MRNG. IN ADDITION...THE UPR LVL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE COMPACT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
DAYBREAK TUE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT FOR BETTER
PRECIP GENERATION. PROBLEM IS...THERE ARE STILL MODEL-TO-MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
DIFFICULTY OF HANDLING THE PHASING...OR RATHER NON-PHASING... OF
THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS UPSTREAM FROM THE MPX CWFA. THIS MAKES
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP A BIT PROBLEMATIC. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SUNDAY BUT MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHC RANGE SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE. WITHIN THAT RANGE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MON
NIGHT...ESP OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS THE SRN STREAM LOW THRU THE AREA.

THE UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CENTERS THEN SHIFT THRU
THE REGION BY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING ZONAL /SLIGHTLY
WNW-ESE/ FLOW ALOFT AND A NON-DESCRIPT SFC PRES PATTERN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE WX CONDS WITH PTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE
UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS DROP TO
30S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THE 20S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH AT 18Z WAS NEAR A MKT/MSP/RZN LINE WITH A TONGUE OF
MVFR CIGS RACING NORTH TO THE EAST OF IT. RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE CIGS THIS MORNING...SO THIS FORECAST FAVORS TRENDS
FROM THOSE MODELS CLOSELY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN...SO THAT WILL KEEP ANY STRATUS/FOG OUT OF THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY AS A SFC HIGH GOES FROM SW
MN INTO IA.

KMSP...MVFR CLOUDS SHOWED UP AT THE SAME TIME AS THE SFC
TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MSP WILL BE BACK TO VFR AND
VFR FOR GOOD BY 20Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 241039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING
DOWN TEMPS IN THE SE CWA DUE TO ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRST...S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGAN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WHICH LED TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE/FOG FORMATION IN EC/SE
MN TO HALT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOWER
CLDS/FOG ACROSS WC WI THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADV HAS BEEN DROPPED IN MN /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOODHUE CTY/.
EVEN IN WC WI...THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. MOST OF THE OBS WERE NOTING
LOW CIGS...BUT VSBYS WERE AOA 1SM. THE SW/S WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE MOISTURE SURGING N/NE ACROSS SC/SE/EC
MN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS MOST OF WC WI DURING THE AFTN.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH...WITH 60S A BETTER
SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN REASONABLE WITH
NEAR 80 IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN SE/SC MN
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST 10K...WAA IN THIS LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHRA TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP CONDS DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO LOOK
AT FOR LATER THIS MORNING.

NO CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AND ENDS CALMLY. IT/S THE MIDDLE
PORTION THAT IS UNSETTLED DUE TO A POTENT INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING A STORM SYSTEM WITH IT.

SATURDAY WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS OWN...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THRU SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING ITS AXIS TO MOVE ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURG THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED ON MODELS SO THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
TDA/S CDFNT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP SLOW
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PAC NW DURG THE DAY ON SUN WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A STRONGER LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE
EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
TROUGH WILL SHOVE THE CANADIAN /NRN STREAM/ LOW EWD WHILE PICKING
UP THE ROCKIES /SRN STREAM/ LOW. THE ROCKIES LOW AGAIN LOOKS
WEAKER IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...MAKING THE CANADIAN LOW THE
MAIN FEATURE BUT STILL WITH SFC FRONTS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS FROM IT. THE CONGLOMERATION OF THESE LOW PRES CENTERS WILL
SHIFT ACRS MN/WI MON THRU TUE MRNG. IN ADDITION...THE UPR LVL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE COMPACT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
DAYBREAK TUE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT FOR BETTER
PRECIP GENERATION. PROBLEM IS...THERE ARE STILL MODEL-TO-MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
DIFFICULTY OF HANDLING THE PHASING...OR RATHER NON-PHASING... OF
THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS UPSTREAM FROM THE MPX CWFA. THIS MAKES
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP A BIT PROBLEMATIC. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SUNDAY BUT MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHC RANGE SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE. WITHIN THAT RANGE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MON
NIGHT...ESP OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS THE SRN STREAM LOW THRU THE AREA.

THE UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CENTERS THEN SHIFT THRU
THE REGION BY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING ZONAL /SLIGHTLY
WNW-ESE/ FLOW ALOFT AND A NON-DESCRIPT SFC PRES PATTERN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE WX CONDS WITH PTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE
UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS DROP TO
30S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THE 20S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL/SW MN /KAXN KRWF &
KSTC THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE S/SW TO A MORE
W/NW DIRECTION LATER TODAY. EC MN/WC WI REMAINED IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF IFR CONDS
REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR KEAU. KRNH REMAINS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 12-13Z. LATER THIS MORNING A
SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE BLW 5K IS EVIDENT IN MODELS TO MOVE FROM
IA...NE ACROSS SC/SE AND EC MN AND INTO WC WI THIS AFTN. KEPT
CONDS MVFR BY THE LATE MORNING THRU MOST OF THE AFTN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE S/SW TO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD BY MID/LATE MORNING AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTS N/NE
ACROSS IA...AND INTO SC/EC MN. DEPENDING UPON THE AMT OF MIXING
THIS AFTN AND WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW/W...WILL DETERMINE TIMING
OF WHEN THE MVFR CIGS LIFT OUT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE FOR
CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY 19-20Z. VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE LATE
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W/NW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR EARLY. POSS MVFR CIGS IN SHRA LATE. WNDS BCMG SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR SHRA EARLY. VFR LATE. WNDS BCMG W/NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ078.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 240926
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING
DOWN TEMPS IN THE SE CWA DUE TO ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRST...S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGAN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WHICH LED TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE/FOG FORMATION IN EC/SE
MN TO HALT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOWER
CLDS/FOG ACROSS WC WI THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADV HAS BEEN DROPPED IN MN /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOODHUE CTY/.
EVEN IN WC WI...THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. MOST OF THE OBS WERE NOTING
LOW CIGS...BUT VSBYS WERE AOA 1SM. THE SW/S WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE MOISTURE SURGING N/NE ACROSS SC/SE/EC
MN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS MOST OF WC WI DURING THE AFTN.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH...WITH 60S A BETTER
SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN REASONABLE WITH
NEAR 80 IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN SE/SC MN
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST 10K...WAA IN THIS LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHRA TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP CONDS DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO LOOK
AT FOR LATER THIS MORNING.

NO CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AND ENDS CALMLY. IT/S THE MIDDLE
PORTION THAT IS UNSETTLED DUE TO A POTENT INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING A STORM SYSTEM WITH IT.

SATURDAY WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS OWN...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THRU SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING ITS AXIS TO MOVE ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURG THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED ON MODELS SO THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
TDA/S CDFNT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP SLOW
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PAC NW DURG THE DAY ON SUN WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A STRONGER LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE
EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
TROUGH WILL SHOVE THE CANADIAN /NRN STREAM/ LOW EWD WHILE PICKING
UP THE ROCKIES /SRN STREAM/ LOW. THE ROCKIES LOW AGAIN LOOKS
WEAKER IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...MAKING THE CANADIAN LOW THE
MAIN FEATURE BUT STILL WITH SFC FRONTS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS FROM IT. THE CONGLOMERATION OF THESE LOW PRES CENTERS WILL
SHIFT ACRS MN/WI MON THRU TUE MRNG. IN ADDITION...THE UPR LVL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE COMPACT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
DAYBREAK TUE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT FOR BETTER
PRECIP GENERATION. PROBLEM IS...THERE ARE STILL MODEL-TO-MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
DIFFICULTY OF HANDLING THE PHASING...OR RATHER NON-PHASING... OF
THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS UPSTREAM FROM THE MPX CWFA. THIS MAKES
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP A BIT PROBLEMATIC. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SUNDAY BUT MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHC RANGE SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE. WITHIN THAT RANGE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MON
NIGHT...ESP OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS THE SRN STREAM LOW THRU THE AREA.

THE UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CENTERS THEN SHIFT THRU
THE REGION BY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING ZONAL /SLIGHTLY
WNW-ESE/ FLOW ALOFT AND A NON-DESCRIPT SFC PRES PATTERN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE WX CONDS WITH PTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE
UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS DROP TO
30S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THE 20S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN
WI AND FAR SE MN WILL BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE
TWIN CITIES...OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE
UNDER THE STRATUS DURING THE NIGHT. AREAS OF EASTERN MN WHERE IT
IS CLEAR RIGHT NOW HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
FOR THE WESTERN MN TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A LARGER TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS. THERE IS A ALSO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST
THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HENCE...VFR
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR KRWF..KSTC AND KAXN. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WI. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY VEERING SW ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON 8-10
KNOTS.

KMSP...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE DRIFTING NW TOWARDS THE
AIRFIELD WITH BKN-OVC010 EXPECTED BY 07Z. CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW AND
PUSHES THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ078.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240346
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT OF THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT SUNSHINE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THAT PART
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES SKIES BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD...SO CONTINUED THE 0 POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...IN PARTICULAR THE
23.12 HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT DEVELOPS A 988 LOW OVER MN...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER MUCH INTERROGATION...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE STEM FROM
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER...SO IT PLACES THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ON THE FOOTHILLS OF WY BY 18Z MONDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY THIS
PV ANOMALY BECOMES PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWS LEADING TO A WELL DEVELOPED
CYCLONE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE EC AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND THE
POLAR JET IS DELAYED AND DISPLACED...AND AS A RESULT BY 18Z TUESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE GFS. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. USED 6HR GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN
WI AND FAR SE MN WILL BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES...OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE UNDER THE
STRATUS DURING THE NIGHT. AREAS OF EASTERN MN WHERE IT IS CLEAR
RIGHT NOW HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
FOR THE WESTERN MN TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A LARGER TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS. THERE IS A ALSO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST
THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED FOR KRWF..KSTC AND KAXN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WI. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY
VEERING SW ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON 8-10 KNOTS.

KMSP...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE DRIFTING NW TOWARDS THE
AIRFIELD WITH BKN-OVC010 EXPECTED BY 07Z. CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW AND
PUSHES THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ053-063-070-077-
     078-084-085-093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240346
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT OF THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT SUNSHINE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THAT PART
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES SKIES BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD...SO CONTINUED THE 0 POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...IN PARTICULAR THE
23.12 HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT DEVELOPS A 988 LOW OVER MN...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER MUCH INTERROGATION...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE STEM FROM
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER...SO IT PLACES THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ON THE FOOTHILLS OF WY BY 18Z MONDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY THIS
PV ANOMALY BECOMES PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWS LEADING TO A WELL DEVELOPED
CYCLONE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE EC AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND THE
POLAR JET IS DELAYED AND DISPLACED...AND AS A RESULT BY 18Z TUESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE GFS. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. USED 6HR GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN
WI AND FAR SE MN WILL BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES...OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE UNDER THE
STRATUS DURING THE NIGHT. AREAS OF EASTERN MN WHERE IT IS CLEAR
RIGHT NOW HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
FOR THE WESTERN MN TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A LARGER TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS. THERE IS A ALSO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST
THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED FOR KRWF..KSTC AND KAXN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WI. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY
VEERING SW ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON 8-10 KNOTS.

KMSP...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE DRIFTING NW TOWARDS THE
AIRFIELD WITH BKN-OVC010 EXPECTED BY 07Z. CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW AND
PUSHES THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ053-063-070-077-
     078-084-085-093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT OF THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT SUNSHINE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THAT PART
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES SKIES BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD...SO CONTINUED THE 0 POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...IN PARTICULAR THE
23.12 HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT DEVELOPS A 988 LOW OVER MN...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER MUCH INTERROGATION...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE STEM FROM
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER...SO IT PLACES THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ON THE FOOTHILLS OF WY BY 18Z MONDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY THIS
PV ANOMALY BECOMES PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWS LEADING TO A WELL DEVELOPED
CYCLONE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE EC AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND THE
POLAR JET IS DELAYED AND DISPLACED...AND AS A RESULT BY 18Z TUESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE GFS. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. USED 6HR GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRIER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE MN/WI BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IS ABOUT AS FAR AS IT WILL GO
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BACK AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON KEAU CLEARING THIS
EVENING. IF THEY DO...THEY WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY TO LIFR OR
VLIFR. KRNH IS CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS. THIS WILL LIKELY
HEAD BACK INTO FAR EASTERN MN LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. KSTC...KRWF AND KAXN ARE MUCH BETTER OFF WITH VFR
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FOR
OUR TWO WI TAF SITES.

KMSP...SOME MVFR BR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK IN
ON LIGHT SE WINDS. A CONCERN IS THAT LOW MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO
SPREAD IN AFTER 09Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS. ITS JUST
A SMALL POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. SOME BKN-OVC035-045 MAY ALSO
PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ON THIS WITH IT BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ053-063-
     070-077-078-084-085-093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 232104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT OF THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT SUNSHINE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THAT PART
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES SKIES BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD...SO CONTINUED THE 0 POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...IN PARTICULAR THE
23.12 HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT DEVELOPS A 988 LOW OVER MN...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER MUCH INTERROGATION...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE STEM FROM
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER...SO IT PLACES THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ON THE FOOTHILLS OF WY BY 18Z MONDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY THIS
PV ANOMALY BECOMES PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWS LEADING TO A WELL DEVELOPED
CYCLONE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE EC AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND THE
POLAR JET IS DELAYED AND DISPLACED...AND AS A RESULT BY 18Z TUESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE GFS. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. USED 6HR GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING MOVING WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS
WEST OF A STC TO MSP TO MKT LINE ARE CLEAR. EXPECT ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL MN TO BE CLEAR BY 20Z. THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA IS IN NOW IN WESTERN WI...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. SOME IMPACT TO WESTERN WI TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z EXCEPT EAU WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 22Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH FOG BECOMING A
CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...SO
ADDED FOG FOR THE WESTERN WI TAF SITES. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AT
AXN/STC. MSP/RWF SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FOG...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS LIFT FRIDAY MORNING OVER WRN WI WE
WILL SEE VFR THROUGH AT LAST SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS. WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT T PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME A FEW CLOUDS AT THE 12-15K LEVEL.

KMSP...CIGS ARE DONE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKC WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE FIELD IN TERMS OF ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NO RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE SKC FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ053-063-
     070-077-078-084-085-093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DRL








000
FXUS63 KMPX 231759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEARING
IS MARCHING EASTWARD. ALL BUT EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN WAS CLEAR
AND EXPECT ALL OF MN TO BE CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR LOWER 70S THERE
TODAY...PERHAPS MID 70S LOCALLY. LIMITED MIXING AND COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S IN EASTERN
MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING MOVING WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS
WEST OF A STC TO MSP TO MKT LINE ARE CLEAR. EXPECT ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL MN TO BE CLEAR BY 20Z. THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA IS IN NOW IN WESTERN WI...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. SOME IMPACT TO WESTERN WI TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z EXCEPT EAU WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 22Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH FOG BECOMING A
CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...SO
ADDED FOG FOR THE WESTERN WI TAF SITES. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AT
AXN/STC. MSP/RWF SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FOG...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS LIFT FRIDAY MORNING OVER WRN WI WE
WILL SEE VFR THROUGH AT LAST SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS. WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT T PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME A FEW CLOUDS AT THE 12-15K LEVEL.

KMSP...CIGS ARE DONE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKC WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE FIELD IN TERMS OF ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NO RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE SKC FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DRL/JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 231759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEARING
IS MARCHING EASTWARD. ALL BUT EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN WAS CLEAR
AND EXPECT ALL OF MN TO BE CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR LOWER 70S THERE
TODAY...PERHAPS MID 70S LOCALLY. LIMITED MIXING AND COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S IN EASTERN
MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING MOVING WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS
WEST OF A STC TO MSP TO MKT LINE ARE CLEAR. EXPECT ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL MN TO BE CLEAR BY 20Z. THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA IS IN NOW IN WESTERN WI...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. SOME IMPACT TO WESTERN WI TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z EXCEPT EAU WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 22Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH FOG BECOMING A
CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...SO
ADDED FOG FOR THE WESTERN WI TAF SITES. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AT
AXN/STC. MSP/RWF SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FOG...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS LIFT FRIDAY MORNING OVER WRN WI WE
WILL SEE VFR THROUGH AT LAST SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS. WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT T PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME A FEW CLOUDS AT THE 12-15K LEVEL.

KMSP...CIGS ARE DONE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKC WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE FIELD IN TERMS OF ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NO RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE SKC FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DRL/JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 231106
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WELL ADVERTISED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY 3AM HAD REACHED
EASTERN MN. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL
DRYING PUSHING IN TO WESTERN MN. SKIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CLEARING
ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE CLEARING LINE REACHING THE TWIN
CITIES AROUND SUN RISE. AS FAR AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS
CONCERNED...FORECAST HAS BEEN GOOD SO JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
COVERAGE...TIMING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WILL DEAL WITH THIS EASTBOUND BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND STILL EXPECT IT TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE...THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS THERE. IN OUR
FA...THE FOG HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...THANKS TO THE 7-10 MPH
WIND SUSTAINING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THE VISIBILITY FROM
CRASHING...WHICH IT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD WITH THIS SETUP IF NOT
FOR THE WIND. UPDATED FORECAST HAS THE WIND DROPPING A LITTLE JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE BE PREPARED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
CENTRAL MN IN CASE THE WIND TEMPORARILY FALLS BELOW 5 MPH OR SO.

THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGING AND HENCE...ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH IN AND MIX DOWN. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR 70S THERE TODAY. LIMITED
MIXING AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE 60S IN EASTERN MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA NOW...WITH
MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT STILL TO IMPACT WESTERN WI. TO
THE WEST...FOG HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...DESPITE AT
LEAST SOME WIND. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT WHEN SKIES CLEAR GIVEN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AFTER THE
RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE THE FOG MIX OUT BY
14-15Z...AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. FOG BECOMES A CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BASED ON THE
LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS...SO OFFERED AN INDICATION THERE MAY BE FOG
FOR MOST TAF SITES. LATER SHIFTS WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON FOG
POTENTIAL AND WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE NEXT
ISSUANCE TO COME OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

KMSP...EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 17Z WITH SOME
BREAK UP BEGINNING AT 15Z AS AREA FOG BEGINS TO MIX OUT. DID NOT
INTRODUCE FOG AT MSP FOR TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY
LATER SHIFTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...FOG PSBL AM. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230902
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WELL ADVERTISED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY 3AM HAD REACHED
EASTERN MN. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL
DRYING PUSHING IN TO WESTERN MN. SKIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CLEARING
ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE CLEARING LINE REACHING THE TWIN
CITIES AROUND SUN RISE. AS FAR AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS
CONCERNED...FORECAST HAS BEEN GOOD SO JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
COVERAGE...TIMING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WILL DEAL WITH THIS EASTBOUND BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND STILL EXPECT IT TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE...THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS THERE. IN OUR
FA...THE FOG HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...THANKS TO THE 7-10 MPH
WIND SUSTAINING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THE VISIBILITY FROM
CRASHING...WHICH IT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD WITH THIS SETUP IF NOT
FOR THE WIND. UPDATED FORECAST HAS THE WIND DROPPING A LITTLE JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE BE PREPARED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
CENTRAL MN IN CASE THE WIND TEMPORARILY FALLS BELOW 5 MPH OR SO.

THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGING AND HENCE...ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH IN AND MIX DOWN. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR 70S THERE TODAY. LIMITED
MIXING AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE 60S IN EASTERN MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL SPREAD INTO KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU WHILE CEILINGS TO THE WEST
SCATTER OUT. ONE CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO LOWER
CEILINGS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO IFR FOR THE EASTERN SITES.
THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT FOR IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG
ACROSS ABOUT THE CENTRAL THIRD OF MN. THIS WOULD IMPACT KSTC.
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
RESPECTIVELY. SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOMING WSW WITH PASSAGE.

KMSP...LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THE SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD
INTO KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU WHILE CEILINGS TO THE WEST SCATTER OUT. ONE
CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO LOWER CEILINGS FOR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING TO IFR FOR THE EASTERN SITES. THERE ALSO REMAINS A
THREAT FOR IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG ACROSS ABOUT THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF MN. THIS WOULD IMPACT KSTC. CEILINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMING WSW WITH PASSAGE.

KMSP...LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 230353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THE SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD
INTO KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU WHILE CEILINGS TO THE WEST SCATTER OUT. ONE
CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO LOWER CEILINGS FOR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING TO IFR FOR THE EASTERN SITES. THERE ALSO REMAINS A
THREAT FOR IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG ACROSS ABOUT THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF MN. THIS WOULD IMPACT KSTC. CEILINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMING WSW WITH PASSAGE.

KMSP...LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 230009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN
06Z AND 10Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF KEAU BY
14Z. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
THE SHOWERS. THE LONGEST DURATION FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOP AS WELL LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDINESS. THIS COULD IMPACT KSTC MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF
CURRENTLY INDICATES. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT FALLS AND HOW QUICKLY CLEARING OCCURS. GUSTY SE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING WSW ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 230009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN
06Z AND 10Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF KEAU BY
14Z. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
THE SHOWERS. THE LONGEST DURATION FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOP AS WELL LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDINESS. THIS COULD IMPACT KSTC MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF
CURRENTLY INDICATES. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT FALLS AND HOW QUICKLY CLEARING OCCURS. GUSTY SE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING WSW ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 222045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDEL ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THU
MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST LI/S ARE
PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER RAINFALL
RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.

KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 221902
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
202 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.

THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.

HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.

KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 221128
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.

THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.

HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD WITH RAIN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TODAY AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE...BUT NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS
TAFS LOOKED GOOD...MAINLY SOME EDITS WERE MADE TO THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP WHICH WAS HEAVILY BASED ON AVAILABLE HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST THROUGH THE MORING. SPED
UP THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE FOG IF THE WIND REMAINS LIGHT
ENOUGH...MAINLY OUR WEST.

KMSP...LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REMAIN WEST OF MSP THIS MORING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 220929
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.

THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.

HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING.
VCSH REMAINS IN THE KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC TAFS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR KAXN AND KRWF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE BAND OF THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH
INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND PASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH 15G22KTS COMMON. SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. BREEZY SE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








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