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000
FXUS63 KMPX 282031
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS ALONG
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS CENTERED OVER I-94...AND ALSO
PROLONGED THE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY...AND
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE.

ALL THAT WAS LEFT OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WAS A DECAYING VORTICITY
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. BECAUSE THIS VORTICITY MAX IS CUTOFF FROM
THE MAIN STREAM...IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT ALSO BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS MN/WI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE SCATTERED CLOUDS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO BECOME SATURATED AT
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON
REINTRODUCED CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATE CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...SO
DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER COLORADO.  AS THIS
SYSTEM TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH DRY AIR ADVANCING THROUGH THE
STATE OF MINNESOTA.  THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CAME IN WITH A CONSENSUS
THAT THE DRY AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER...WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
COME.  THE 12Z EC REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
PRECIP NORTH...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM SHUNTED THE
PRECIP SOUTH...WITH THE GEM BEING BULLISH IN DOING THAT WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN MN.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION COMING NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE
STILL SEE SOME PRECIP ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN MN...BUT DID TRIM POPS
OVERALL.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THAT EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER.  THE
NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES DROPS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA.  HOWEVER...THE
NEWEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES THIS SHORTWAVE ON A DIFFERENT PATH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA...SO THE POPS ARE LIMITED TO 30
PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN IN
THE LONG TERM WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEK...BUT A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN MN. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT RWF...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER AREAS OF
RAIN. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
FLAKES MIXING WITH THE RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW AT 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281744
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
RAINS EXITS ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS
MORNING.

WE HAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCED
GRAUPEL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH.  STILL A SIGN OF EARLY SPRING IN MN.
THE NAM INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF BELOW ZERO LI`S MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF 7-
7.5 C/KM OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLIER.  THAT AREA HAS SHRUNK AND APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW TREK OVER IOWA.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO IT APPEARS AND THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE STILL MAINTAIN A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF RAIN
LIFT NW ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS...AT LEAS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY TAPER THEM THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. THEY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TO THE FAR EAST.

MODELS ALONG WITH LAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA VULNERABLE TO SOME WET SNOW THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST 1KM WET MAX
BULB TEMPERATURE IS AROUND ZERO THERE...AND THE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WAVES OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH.  A FEW
STATIONS HAVE REPORTED SNOW DURING THE LAST HOUR(LITTLE FALLS AND
LONG PRAIRIE) WITH A FEW UP REPORTS EARLIER.  WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH FOR THE EARLY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLOW CLEARING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE CWA TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS...EAST
WIND AND PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO
SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF MODELS DEPICTING THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR AS THE NORTHERN BOUND OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...AND CONFINES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CLOSER
TO THE MN/IA BORDER. HAVE MAINTAINED 70-80 POPS ALONG THE IOWA
BORDER...TAPERING QUICKLY DOWN TO 20-30S FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO
MINNEAPOLIS TO EAU CLAIRE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
WE MAY EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAMES OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANYTHING MORE THAN
ANYTHING VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.

FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK EXPECT TO SEE A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN
THE 60S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BASE OF A WEAK TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN MN AND WI ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING
NOTABLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN MN. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT RWF...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER AREAS OF
RAIN. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
FLAKES MIXING WITH THE RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281027
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
RAINS EXITS ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS
MORNING.

WE HAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCED
GRAUPEL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH.  STILL A SIGN OF EARLY SPRING IN MN.
THE NAM INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF BELOW ZERO LI`S MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF 7-
7.5 C/KM OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLIER.  THAT AREA HAS SHRUNK AND APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW TREK OVER IOWA.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO IT APPEARS AND THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE STILL MAINTAIN A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF RAIN
LIFT NW ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS...AT LEAS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY TAPER THEM THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. THEY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TO THE FAR EAST.

MODELS ALONG WITH LAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA VULNERABLE TO SOME WET SNOW THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST 1KM WET MAX
BULB TEMPERATURE IS AROUND ZERO THERE...AND THE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WAVES OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH.  A FEW
STATIONS HAVE REPORTED SNOW DURING THE LAST HOUR(LITTLE FALLS AND
LONG PRAIRIE) WITH A FEW UP REPORTS EARLIER.  WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH FOR THE EARLY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLOW CLEARING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE CWA TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS...EAST
WIND AND PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO
SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF MODELS DEPICTING THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR AS THE NORTHERN BOUND OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...AND CONFINES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CLOSER
TO THE MN/IA BORDER. HAVE MAINTAINED 70-80 POPS ALONG THE IOWA
BORDER...TAPERING QUICKLY DOWN TO 20-30S FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO
MINNEAPOLIS TO EAU CLAIRE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
WE MAY EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAMES OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANYTHING MORE THAN
ANYTHING VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.

FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK EXPECT TO SEE A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN
THE 60S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BASE OF A WEAK TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN MN AND WI ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING
NOTABLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER IOWA.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR AS FAR NORTH AS KMSP THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR CIGS AT KRWF THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
AT KEAU/KRNH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY. EXPECT CIGS
TO LIFT TO VFR BY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. E WINDS OVER THE AREA
A BIT GUSTY OVER SOUTHERN SITES AND THEN BECOMING MORE E-NE INTO
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS WAVES
OF RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THEN DRYING OUT BY THIS
EVENING AND REMAINING VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NITE...VFR. WIND E-NE AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280822
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
RAINS EXITS ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS
MORNING.

WE HAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCED
GRAUPEL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH.  STILL A SIGN OF EARLY SPRING IN MN.
THE NAM INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF BELOW ZERO LI`S MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF 7-
7.5 C/KM OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLIER.  THAT AREA HAS SHRUNK AND APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW TREK OVER IOWA.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO IT APPEARS AND THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE STILL MAINTAIN A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF RAIN
LIFT NW ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS...AT LEAS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY TAPER THEM THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. THEY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TO THE FAR EAST.

MODELS ALONG WITH LAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA VULNERABLE TO SOME WET SNOW THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST 1KM WET MAX
BULB TEMPERATURE IS AROUND ZERO THERE...AND THE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WAVES OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH.  A FEW
STATIONS HAVE REPORTED SNOW DURING THE LAST HOUR(LITTLE FALLS AND
LONG PRAIRIE) WITH A FEW UP REPORTS EARLIER.  WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH FOR THE EARLY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLOW CLEARING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE CWA TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS...EAST
WIND AND PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO
SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF MODELS DEPICTING THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR AS THE NORTHERN BOUND OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...AND CONFINES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CLOSER
TO THE MN/IA BORDER. HAVE MAINTAINED 70-80 POPS ALONG THE IOWA
BORDER...TAPERING QUICKLY DOWN TO 20-30S FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO
MINNEAPOLIS TO EAU CLAIRE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
WE MAY EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAMES OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANYTHING MORE THAN
ANYTHING VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.

FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK EXPECT TO SEE A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN
THE 60S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BASE OF A WEAK TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN MN AND WI ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING
NOTABLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH LATE MRNG TMRW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS...WHETHER VIA VSBY DUE TO MOD RAIN OR CEILING...BUT
ASIDE FROM KRWF THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VFR
THROUGHOUT THE 28/06Z TAFS. RAIN LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA BY MID-
AFTN TMRW WITH CEILINGS STEADILY RISING. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE ENE WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

KMSP...NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN OCNL MVFR CONDS...BUT VFR
CONDS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING PUSH AND THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280402
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH AN OCCLUDED STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD FIELD. A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE MASS FIELDS REVEALED THAT THIS INDEED WAS AN OCCLUDED
SYSTEM. THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOGETHER
WITH THE LATE APRIL SOLAR RADIATION ALLOWED THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
A RESULT A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WERE ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IA.

CLOSER TO HOME A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WAS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
SO THERE IS NO LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING SLOWLY WANES ACROSS THE REGION THE RAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE...BUT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE/BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRI/SAT/SUN AS A
SIMILAR STORM SYSTEM THAT IS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND WITH
SIMILAR RAIN SHIELD/AIR MASS CONSISTENCIES. BASED ON THE STRONGER
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DRYING THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT/SUN SYSTEM. WITH A
PERSISTENT OR DEVELOPING EAST- NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...UP TO 5K...THIS WILL ERODE ANY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM MOVING NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR THE IOWA/MN BORDER...WITH LESSER OR NO
AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MN. THIS IS AGAIN BASED ON THE MAIN INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. IF THIS RIDGE DECIDES TO WEAKEN OR
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A WETTER WEEKEND THAN
EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF...THE EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH. IT MAY
EVEN BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. EVENTUALLY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH LATE MRNG TMRW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS...WHETHER VIA VSBY DUE TO MOD RAIN OR CEILING...BUT
ASIDE FROM KRWF THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VFR
THROUGHOUT THE 28/06Z TAFS. RAIN LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA BY MID-
AFTN TMRW WITH CEILINGS STEADILY RISING. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE ENE WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

KMSP...NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN OCNL MVFR CONDS...BUT VFR
CONDS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING PUSH AND THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280122
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
822 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH AN OCCLUDED STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD FIELD. A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE MASS FIELDS REVEALED THAT THIS INDEED WAS AN OCCLUDED
SYSTEM. THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOGETHER
WITH THE LATE APRIL SOLAR RADIATION ALLOWED THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS
A RESULT A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WERE ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IA.

CLOSER TO HOME A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WAS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
SO THERE IS NO LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING SLOWLY WANES ACROSS THE REGION THE RAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE...BUT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE/BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRI/SAT/SUN AS A
SIMILAR STORM SYSTEM THAT IS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND WITH
SIMILAR RAIN SHIELD/AIR MASS CONSISTENCIES. BASED ON THE STRONGER
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DRYING THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT/SUN SYSTEM. WITH A
PERSISTENT OR DEVELOPING EAST- NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...UP TO 5K...THIS WILL ERODE ANY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM MOVING NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR THE IOWA/MN BORDER...WITH LESSER OR NO
AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MN. THIS IS AGAIN BASED ON THE MAIN INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. IF THIS RIDGE DECIDES TO WEAKEN OR
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A WETTER WEEKEND THAN
EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF...THE EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH. IT MAY
EVEN BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. EVENTUALLY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN BATCH OF RAIN PUSHING N OF I-94 AT INITIALIZATION TIME...WITH
CONDS GENERALLY STILL IN VFR RANGE THOUGH OCNL MVFR CAN BE FOUND.
AFTER ABOUT A 4-6 HR BREAK...ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BUT CONDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. A FEW OBS OF MVFR
VSBY AND/OR CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG IF AT ALL. RAIN LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA BY MID-AFTN
TMRW WITH CEILINGS STEADILY RISING. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

KMSP...NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN OCNL MVFR CONDS...BUT VFR
CONDS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING PUSH AND THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 272047
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOWED A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
AN OCCLUDED STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD FIELD. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MASS
FIELDS REVEALED THAT THIS INDEED WAS AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE DRY
SLOT WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOGETHER WITH THE LATE APRIL
SOLAR RADIATION ALLOWED THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW TO
QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WERE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA.

CLOSER TO HOME A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WAS NOT ANY INSTABILITY SO THERE IS NO
LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SLOWLY WANES ACROSS THE REGION THE RAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE...BUT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE/BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRI/SAT/SUN AS A SIMILAR
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND WITH SIMILAR RAIN SHIELD/AIR
MASS CONSISTENCIES. BASED ON THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DRYING THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT/SUN SYSTEM. WITH A PERSISTENT OR DEVELOPING EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...UP TO 5K...THIS WILL ERODE
ANY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE
BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR THE IOWA/MN
BORDER...WITH LESSER OR NO AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MN. THIS IS AGAIN
BASED ON THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. IF THIS
RIDGE DECIDES TO WEAKEN OR RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A WETTER WEEKEND THAN EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF...THE EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH. IT MAY
EVEN BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. EVENTUALLY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AS A BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY
EXIT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY...BUT
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD BE AROUND 22Z...AND POSSIBLY 21Z. COULD SEE
MVFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EASTERLY WINDS
ARE BRING DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CEILINGS ABOVE
1800FT...AND THE VISBYS ABOVE 4 MILES. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 272047
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOWED A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
AN OCCLUDED STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD FIELD. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MASS
FIELDS REVEALED THAT THIS INDEED WAS AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE DRY
SLOT WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOGETHER WITH THE LATE APRIL
SOLAR RADIATION ALLOWED THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW TO
QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WERE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA.

CLOSER TO HOME A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WAS NOT ANY INSTABILITY SO THERE IS NO
LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SLOWLY WANES ACROSS THE REGION THE RAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE...BUT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE/BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRI/SAT/SUN AS A SIMILAR
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND WITH SIMILAR RAIN SHIELD/AIR
MASS CONSISTENCIES. BASED ON THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DRYING THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT/SUN SYSTEM. WITH A PERSISTENT OR DEVELOPING EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...UP TO 5K...THIS WILL ERODE
ANY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE
BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR THE IOWA/MN
BORDER...WITH LESSER OR NO AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MN. THIS IS AGAIN
BASED ON THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. IF THIS
RIDGE DECIDES TO WEAKEN OR RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A WETTER WEEKEND THAN EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF...THE EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH. IT MAY
EVEN BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. EVENTUALLY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AS A BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY
EXIT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY...BUT
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD BE AROUND 22Z...AND POSSIBLY 21Z. COULD SEE
MVFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EASTERLY WINDS
ARE BRING DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CEILINGS ABOVE
1800FT...AND THE VISBYS ABOVE 4 MILES. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 271833
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
133 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF RAIN BAND OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING
AS THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
RAIN AS RATHER DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE TRIED TO
TIME WITH THE 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST...WHICH LEAVE LEAVES THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA DRY TODAY. WE STILL SHOULD WORK THE RAIN NEAR A MORRIS-
MSP-RED WING LINE BY 6 PM. WE STILL HAVE A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING SEVER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS MAY THIN A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THICKER/LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RISE TO THE MID 50S OVER THE FAR EAST BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN AFFECT THAT AREA.

THE RAIN AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.  SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AS THE DRY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE
WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO OUR FAR NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. CONCERNING P-TYPE...SOME HIRES CAMS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE
OVER TO SNOW OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
WORKING INTO THIS REGION AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES SHOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  WE WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET AND COOL...BUT TRENDS WARMER AND
DRYER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH
OF MN/WI. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIX IN
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
RIDGING PREVAILING. WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUD COVER
LINGERING...BUT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WEEKEND TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY
SATURDAY...LARGELY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY LOW WILL LIFT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.

NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AS A BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY
EXIT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY...BUT
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD BE AROUND 22Z...AND POSSIBLY 21Z. COULD SEE
MVFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EASTERLY WINDS
ARE BRING DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CEILINGS ABOVE
1800FT...AND THE VISBYS ABOVE 4 MILES. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 271833
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
133 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF RAIN BAND OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING
AS THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
RAIN AS RATHER DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE TRIED TO
TIME WITH THE 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST...WHICH LEAVE LEAVES THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA DRY TODAY. WE STILL SHOULD WORK THE RAIN NEAR A MORRIS-
MSP-RED WING LINE BY 6 PM. WE STILL HAVE A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING SEVER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS MAY THIN A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THICKER/LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RISE TO THE MID 50S OVER THE FAR EAST BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN AFFECT THAT AREA.

THE RAIN AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.  SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AS THE DRY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE
WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO OUR FAR NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. CONCERNING P-TYPE...SOME HIRES CAMS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE
OVER TO SNOW OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
WORKING INTO THIS REGION AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES SHOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  WE WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET AND COOL...BUT TRENDS WARMER AND
DRYER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH
OF MN/WI. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIX IN
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
RIDGING PREVAILING. WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUD COVER
LINGERING...BUT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WEEKEND TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY
SATURDAY...LARGELY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY LOW WILL LIFT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.

NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AS A BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY
EXIT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY...BUT
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD BE AROUND 22Z...AND POSSIBLY 21Z. COULD SEE
MVFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EASTERLY WINDS
ARE BRING DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CEILINGS ABOVE
1800FT...AND THE VISBYS ABOVE 4 MILES. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E AT 05KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 271104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF RAIN BAND OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING
AS THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
RAIN AS RATHER DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE TRIED TO
TIME WITH THE 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST...WHICH LEAVE LEAVES THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA DRY TODAY. WE STILL SHOULD WORK THE RAIN NEAR A MORRIS-
MSP-RED WING LINE BY 6 PM. WE STILL HAVE A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING SEVER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS MAY THIN A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THICKER/LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RISE TO THE MID 50S OVER THE FAR EAST BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN AFFECT THAT AREA.

THE RAIN AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.  SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AS THE DRY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE
WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO OUR FAR NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. CONCERNING P-TYPE...SOME HIRES CAMS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE
OVER TO SNOW OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
WORKING INTO THIS REGION AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES SHOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  WE WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET AND COOL...BUT TRENDS WARMER AND
DRYER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH
OF MN/WI. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIX IN
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
RIDGING PREVAILING. WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUD COVER
LINGERING...BUT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WEEKEND TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY
SATURDAY...LARGELY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY LOW WILL LIFT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.

NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WILL BRING IN THE RAIN TO NEAR A KMOX-KMSP LINE BY 00Z FRI. THEN
SLOWLY NE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING.
WILL TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE -RA AS WELL. COULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EAST WINDS AND GUSTY INTO THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NE INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...

SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THEN MVFR CIGS -RA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD END BY 15Z FRI WITH IMPROVING CIGS THERAFTER. EAST
WIND GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NITE...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 271104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF RAIN BAND OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING
AS THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
RAIN AS RATHER DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE TRIED TO
TIME WITH THE 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST...WHICH LEAVE LEAVES THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA DRY TODAY. WE STILL SHOULD WORK THE RAIN NEAR A MORRIS-
MSP-RED WING LINE BY 6 PM. WE STILL HAVE A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING SEVER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS MAY THIN A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THICKER/LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RISE TO THE MID 50S OVER THE FAR EAST BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN AFFECT THAT AREA.

THE RAIN AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.  SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AS THE DRY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE
WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO OUR FAR NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. CONCERNING P-TYPE...SOME HIRES CAMS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE
OVER TO SNOW OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
WORKING INTO THIS REGION AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES SHOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  WE WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET AND COOL...BUT TRENDS WARMER AND
DRYER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH
OF MN/WI. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIX IN
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
RIDGING PREVAILING. WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUD COVER
LINGERING...BUT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WEEKEND TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY
SATURDAY...LARGELY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY LOW WILL LIFT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.

NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WILL BRING IN THE RAIN TO NEAR A KMOX-KMSP LINE BY 00Z FRI. THEN
SLOWLY NE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING.
WILL TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE -RA AS WELL. COULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EAST WINDS AND GUSTY INTO THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NE INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...

SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THEN MVFR CIGS -RA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD END BY 15Z FRI WITH IMPROVING CIGS THERAFTER. EAST
WIND GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NITE...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270915
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF RAIN BAND OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING
AS THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
RAIN AS RATHER DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE TRIED TO
TIME WITH THE 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST...WHICH LEAVE LEAVES THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA DRY TODAY. WE STILL SHOULD WORK THE RAIN NEAR A MORRIS-
MSP-RED WING LINE BY 6 PM. WE STILL HAVE A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING SEVER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS MAY THIN A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THICKER/LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RISE TO THE MID 50S OVER THE FAR EAST BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN AFFECT THAT AREA.

THE RAIN AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.  SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AS THE DRY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE
WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO OUR FAR NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. CONCERNING P-TYPE...SOME HIRES CAMS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE
OVER TO SNOW OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
WORKING INTO THIS REGION AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES SHOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  WE WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET AND COOL...BUT TRENDS WARMER AND
DRYER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH
OF MN/WI. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIX IN
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
RIDGING PREVAILING. WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUD COVER
LINGERING...BUT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WEEKEND TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY
SATURDAY...LARGELY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY LOW WILL LIFT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.

NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OUTSIDE OF KRWF...CEILINGS ARE ON A SLOW RISE LATE THIS EVENING
AND MOST OF THE FAR SITES WILL BE VFR BY MORNING IF THEY ARE NOT
THERE ALREADY. MVFR CEILINGS AND STEADY RAIN MOVES BACK IN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT. DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE RAIN INTO KRNH AND
KEAU.

KMSP...

THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. THE EVENING
RUSH TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CEILINGS. THE
NORTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR
20KTS...AND THE DIRECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270429
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1129 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OVER THE MISS/OH RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS...TO OVER THE NY/NJ/CT TRI-STATE AREA. PLENTY OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER MO/IL ON INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLC
REGION...WHILE THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AREA IS STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN FRINGES OF CENTRAL CANADA HIGH PRES.
ALOFT...A N-S RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACRS THE MISS RIVER THIS EVE WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE E WHILE A SHARP DEEP TROF OVER THE ROCKIES PIVOTS
AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS TROF TRANSLATES
EWD...IT WILL ENHANCE A SFC LOW OVER CO/KS WHILE A TRAILING SFC
TROF EXTENDING NWD FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE AGAIN SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN SO HAVE SHOWN A MORE DELAYED ADVANCE OF THE HIGHER POPS FROM
W TO E ACRS THE CWFA ON WED. LOW-TO-MIDLVL ELY FLOW ON THE SRN
FRINGES OF THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ALSO TRY TO SLOW DOWN THE
ADVANCE OF THE RAIN... BUT THE LARGE TROF ALOFT PLUS THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE S WILL STEADILY
WIN OUT...WITH MUCH OF THE CWFA BY LATE DAY TMRW EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER LIGHT-MOD RAIN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED DUE TO BEING
ON THE N SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STNRY FRONT SO ASIDE FROM
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS NEAR THE IA BORDER...TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. DUE TO THE MORE ISENTROPIC
NATURE OF THE LIFT...EXPANSIVE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
EFFICIENCY...PRODUCING QPF/S IN THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SWRN MN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL KEEP DIURNALS
FAIRLY SMALL. WHILE MIN TEMPS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND WHAT IS
FORECAST TONIGHT ARE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WET AND COOL PATTERN REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER THEME IN THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ANOTHER SLOW MOVER AND WILL
FINALLY SLIDE EAST OF US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S. THIS IS SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND
SOUTH. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER IN CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY.
IT WILL BE A CHANCE TO DO SOME MOWING BEFORE A THIRD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
CHANGES NOTED TODAY WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH SUNDAY PERHAPS
NOT BEING A TOTAL WASHOUT. THE CULPRIT IS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LOW HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN U.S. THIS ENDS UP SHEARING OUR SYSTEM APART ON SUNDAY WITH
A DRYING TREND NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE
CASE A MODEL RUN OR TWO AGO...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
EMBRACED THIS TREND TODAY. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FAVOR SOUTHWEST MN WITH A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH HEADING NORTH AND EAST. CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI HAVE THE LOWER END AMOUNTS.

A DRYING TREND IS NOTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL
REACH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY (MIDDLE
60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OUTSIDE OF KRWF...CEILINGS ARE ON A SLOW RISE LATE THIS EVENING
AND MOST OF THE FAR SITES WILL BE VFR BY MORNING IF THEY ARE NOT
THERE ALREADY. MVFR CEILINGS AND STEADY RAIN MOVES BACK IN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT. DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE RAIN INTO KRNH AND
KEAU.

KMSP...

THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. THE EVENING
RUSH TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CEILINGS. THE
NORTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR
20KTS...AND THE DIRECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
850 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OVER THE MISS/OH RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS...TO OVER THE NY/NJ/CT TRI-STATE AREA. PLENTY OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER MO/IL ON INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLC
REGION...WHILE THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AREA IS STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN FRINGES OF CENTRAL CANADA HIGH PRES.
ALOFT...A N-S RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACRS THE MISS RIVER THIS EVE WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE E WHILE A SHARP DEEP TROF OVER THE ROCKIES PIVOTS
AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS TROF TRANSLATES
EWD...IT WILL ENHANCE A SFC LOW OVER CO/KS WHILE A TRAILING SFC
TROF EXTENDING NWD FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE AGAIN SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN SO HAVE SHOWN A MORE DELAYED ADVANCE OF THE HIGHER POPS FROM
W TO E ACRS THE CWFA ON WED. LOW-TO-MIDLVL ELY FLOW ON THE SRN
FRINGES OF THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ALSO TRY TO SLOW DOWN THE
ADVANCE OF THE RAIN... BUT THE LARGE TROF ALOFT PLUS THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE S WILL STEADILY
WIN OUT...WITH MUCH OF THE CWFA BY LATE DAY TMRW EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER LIGHT-MOD RAIN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED DUE TO BEING
ON THE N SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STNRY FRONT SO ASIDE FROM
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS NEAR THE IA BORDER...TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. DUE TO THE MORE ISENTROPIC
NATURE OF THE LIFT...EXPANSIVE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
EFFICIENCY...PRODUCING QPF/S IN THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SWRN MN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL KEEP DIURNALS
FAIRLY SMALL. WHILE MIN TEMPS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND WHAT IS
FORECAST TONIGHT ARE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WET AND COOL PATTERN REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER THEME IN THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ANOTHER SLOW MOVER AND WILL
FINALLY SLIDE EAST OF US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S. THIS IS SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND
SOUTH. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER IN CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY.
IT WILL BE A CHANCE TO DO SOME MOWING BEFORE A THIRD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
CHANGES NOTED TODAY WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH SUNDAY PERHAPS
NOT BEING A TOTAL WASHOUT. THE CULPRIT IS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LOW HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN U.S. THIS ENDS UP SHEARING OUR SYSTEM APART ON SUNDAY WITH
A DRYING TREND NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE
CASE A MODEL RUN OR TWO AGO...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
EMBRACED THIS TREND TODAY. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FAVOR SOUTHWEST MN WITH A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH HEADING NORTH AND EAST. CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI HAVE THE LOWER END AMOUNTS.

A DRYING TREND IS NOTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL
REACH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY (MIDDLE
60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OUTSIDE OF KRWF...CEILINGS ARE ON A SLOW RISE THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF THE FAR SITES WILL BE VFR. MVFR CEILINGS AND STEADY RAIN
MOVES BACK IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALL
NIGHT TOMORROW.

KMSP...

THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. THE MVFR
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY CLEAR BEFORE 10PM WITH VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE EVENING RUSH TOMORROW
SHOULD HAVE RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 262050
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OVER THE MISS/OH RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS...TO OVER THE NY/NJ/CT TRI-STATE AREA. PLENTY OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER MO/IL ON INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLC
REGION...WHILE THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AREA IS STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN FRINGES OF CENTRAL CANADA HIGH PRES.
ALOFT...A N-S RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACRS THE MISS RIVER THIS EVE WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE E WHILE A SHARP DEEP TROF OVER THE ROCKIES PIVOTS
AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS TROF TRANSLATES
EWD...IT WILL ENHANCE A SFC LOW OVER CO/KS WHILE A TRAILING SFC
TROF EXTENDING NWD FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE AGAIN SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN SO HAVE SHOWN A MORE DELAYED ADVANCE OF THE HIGHER POPS FROM
W TO E ACRS THE CWFA ON WED. LOW-TO-MIDLVL ELY FLOW ON THE SRN
FRINGES OF THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ALSO TRY TO SLOW DOWN THE
ADVANCE OF THE RAIN... BUT THE LARGE TROF ALOFT PLUS THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE S WILL STEADILY
WIN OUT...WITH MUCH OF THE CWFA BY LATE DAY TMRW EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER LIGHT-MOD RAIN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED DUE TO BEING
ON THE N SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STNRY FRONT SO ASIDE FROM
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS NEAR THE IA BORDER...TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. DUE TO THE MORE ISENTROPIC
NATURE OF THE LIFT...EXPANSIVE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
EFFICIENCY...PRODUCING QPF/S IN THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SWRN MN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL KEEP DIURNALS
FAIRLY SMALL. WHILE MIN TEMPS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND WHAT IS
FORECAST TONIGHT ARE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WET AND COOL PATTERN REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER THEME IN THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ANOTHER SLOW MOVER AND WILL
FINALLY SLIDE EAST OF US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S. THIS IS SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND
SOUTH. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER IN CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY.
IT WILL BE A CHANCE TO DO SOME MOWING BEFORE A THIRD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
CHANGES NOTED TODAY WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH SUNDAY PERHAPS
NOT BEING A TOTAL WASHOUT. THE CULPRIT IS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LOW HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN U.S. THIS ENDS UP SHEARING OUR SYSTEM APART ON SUNDAY WITH
A DRYING TREND NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE
CASE A MODEL RUN OR TWO AGO...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
EMBRACED THIS TREND TODAY. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FAVOR SOUTHWEST MN WITH A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH HEADING NORTH AND EAST. CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI HAVE THE LOWER END AMOUNTS.

A DRYING TREND IS NOTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL
REACH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY (MIDDLE
60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THROUGH THIS EVE...
EVENTUALLY REACHING VFR LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THOUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT...BKN/OVC UPR LEVELS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. FOR MN TAF SITES...LOWER BKN/OVC
DECKS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROUGH
SHIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS. -SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST SITES
THRU 18Z TMRW...BUT KAXN-KSTC-KRWF MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR-VSBY
-SHRA BY THEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 060-080 DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ARND 15G25KT BY LATE MRNG TMRW.

KMSP...SLOW CLIMB OUT OF MVFR RANGE AS VFR CONDS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE REALIZED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. COULD SEE CEILINGS INCRS
ABOVE 1700FT BY THIS EVE...BUT SOLID NE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE 12S
IN PLAY THROUGHOUT THIS SET. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING PUSH WED
MRNG...BUT CHANCES ARE GROWING FOR MVFR -RA TO DEVELOP BY MID-TO-
LATE AFTN TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY...MAINLY EARLY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 261819
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS...THIS ONE IS PRETTY QUIET.
THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF RAIN...SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...SAUK CENTER AND
LITTLE FALLS AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABOVE FREEZING...SO IT ISN/T OF MUCH CONCERN. PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUES IN OTHER PORTIONS OF MN AND WI WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PULL QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING ITS APPROACH A BIT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SEND A BAND OF RAIN NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS
BAND CAN PROGRESS...AND HAVE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT A BIT
KEEPING ANY MENTION WELL SOUTH OF I-94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND WILL EJECT THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND ITS OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS. WE ALSO HAVE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO OVERCOME AS
WELL. WE FOLLOWED A 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST TIMING WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS LEAVES WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT WE DO
WORK A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BEST LI`S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN
WEDNESDAY...SO WE CONTINUED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-
SNOW MIX...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER
SUPPRESS ANY REAL FORCING OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS EJECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANOTHER LONG DURING PRECIPITATION EVENT...LIFTING A CLOSED LOW
INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT A
COOL PATTERN TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THROUGH THIS EVE...
EVENTUALLY REACHING VFR LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THOUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT...BKN/OVC UPR LEVELS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. FOR MN TAF SITES...LOWER BKN/OVC
DECKS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROUGH
SHIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS. -SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST SITES
THRU 18Z TMRW...BUT KAXN-KSTC-KRWF MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR-VSBY
-SHRA BY THEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 060-080 DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ARND 15G25KT BY LATE MRNG TMRW.

KMSP...SLOW CLIMB OUT OF MVFR RANGE AS VFR CONDS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE REALIZED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. COULD SEE CEILINGS INCRS
ABOVE 1700FT BY THIS EVE...BUT SOLID NE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE 12S
IN PLAY THROUGHOUT THIS SET. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING PUSH WED
MRNG...BUT CHANCES ARE GROWING FOR MVFR -RA TO DEVELOP BY MID-TO-
LATE AFTN TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY...MAINLY EARLY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 261204 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS...THIS ONE IS PRETTY QUIET.
THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF RAIN...SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...SAUK CENTER AND
LITTLE FALLS AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABOVE FREEZING...SO IT ISN/T OF MUCH CONCERN. PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUES IN OTHER PORTIONS OF MN AND WI WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PULL QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING ITS APPROACH A BIT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND
A BAND OF RAIN NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS BAND CAN
PROGRESS...AND HAVE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT A BIT KEEPING ANY
MENTION WELL SOUTH OF I-94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND WILL EJECT THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN.  THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED A BIT AND ITS OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. WE ALSO
HAVE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO OVERCOME AS WELL. WE FOLLOWED A
300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION.  THIS LEAVES
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT WE DO WORK A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN WEDNESDAY...SO WE
CONTINUED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.  LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW
MIX...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SUPPRESS
ANY REAL FORCING OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS EJECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANOTHER LONG DURING PRECIPITATION EVENT...LIFTING A CLOSED LOW
INTO THE AREA.  THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT A COOL
PATTERN TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THEY WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT STEADY
PROGRESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. PM SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 260854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNING...THIS ONE IS PRETTY QUIET.
THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF RAIN...SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...SAUK CENTER AND LITTLE
FALLS AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE
FREEZING...SO IT ISN/T OF MUCH CONCERN. PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES IN
OTHER PORTIONS OF MN AND WI WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PULL QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING ITS APPROACH A BIT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND
A BAND OF RAIN NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS BAND CAN
PROGRESS...AND HAVE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT A BIT KEEPING ANY
MENTION WELL SOUTH OF I-94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND WILL EJECT THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN.  THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED A BIT AND ITS OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. WE ALSO
HAVE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO OVERCOME AS WELL. WE FOLLOWED A
300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION.  THIS LEAVES
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITIED BUT WE DO WORK A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN WEDNESDAY...SO WE CONTINUED
THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.  LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW
MIX...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SUPPRESS
ANY REAL FORCING OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS EJECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANOTHER LONG DURING PRECIPITATION EVENT...LIFTING A CLOSED LOW
INTO THE AREA.  THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT A COOL
PATTERN TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. APPRECIABLE PRECIP AS EXITED
THE AREA...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STABLE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TRAPPED LOW STRATUS UNDER AN INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LIFR MIXED IN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS LATE MORNING TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY
VFR CIGS RETURN TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD DIP
TO LIFR AT TIMES. MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GRADUAL
RAISING OF THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT
IFR LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. PM SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 260854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNING...THIS ONE IS PRETTY QUIET.
THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF RAIN...SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...SAUK CENTER AND LITTLE
FALLS AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE
FREEZING...SO IT ISN/T OF MUCH CONCERN. PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES IN
OTHER PORTIONS OF MN AND WI WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PULL QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING ITS APPROACH A BIT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND
A BAND OF RAIN NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS BAND CAN
PROGRESS...AND HAVE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT A BIT KEEPING ANY
MENTION WELL SOUTH OF I-94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND WILL EJECT THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN.  THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED A BIT AND ITS OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. WE ALSO
HAVE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO OVERCOME AS WELL. WE FOLLOWED A
300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION.  THIS LEAVES
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITIED BUT WE DO WORK A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN WEDNESDAY...SO WE CONTINUED
THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.  LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW
MIX...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SUPPRESS
ANY REAL FORCING OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS EJECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANOTHER LONG DURING PRECIPITATION EVENT...LIFTING A CLOSED LOW
INTO THE AREA.  THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT A COOL
PATTERN TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. APPRECIABLE PRECIP AS EXITED
THE AREA...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STABLE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TRAPPED LOW STRATUS UNDER AN INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LIFR MIXED IN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS LATE MORNING TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY
VFR CIGS RETURN TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD DIP
TO LIFR AT TIMES. MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GRADUAL
RAISING OF THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT
IFR LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. PM SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 260500
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THE COMMOTION FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS EXITS THE REGION.

AT MID AFTERNOON...THE LOW WAS SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE. SOME SUNSHINE
DID DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AREAS OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES NOW AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FORTUNATELY BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW. STILL...THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
METRO ON EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST
TROUGH ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF MN/WI. IN ADDITION...PROFILE
DATA IS QUITE SATURATED IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WI.

WE WILL BE TRAPPED IN A COOL AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
TUESDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS IS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BRINGING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT OF REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN
ADDITION TO THE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

THE FIRST LOW WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS EAST IN NORTHERN MO.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIELD OF RAIN STRETCHING WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
SPREADING OVER MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO THUNDER IS UNLIKELY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST NEAR THE IA/MO
BORDER.  LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX...WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.  RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FURTHER SUPPRESSING/WEAKENING THE FORCING OVER OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

A SECOND LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND.  MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE FIRST ONE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF GIVES US A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SUPPRESSES
THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES OUR AREA DRY.  EITHER WAY...THE COOL PATTERN
FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. APPRECIABLE PRECIP AS EXITED
THE AREA...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STABLE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TRAPPED LOW STRATUS UNDER AN INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LIFR MIXED IN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS LATE MORNING TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY
VFR CIGS RETURN TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD DIP
TO LIFR AT TIMES. MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GRADUAL
RAISING OF THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT
IFR LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. PM SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 260500
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THE COMMOTION FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS EXITS THE REGION.

AT MID AFTERNOON...THE LOW WAS SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE. SOME SUNSHINE
DID DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AREAS OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES NOW AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FORTUNATELY BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW. STILL...THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
METRO ON EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST
TROUGH ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF MN/WI. IN ADDITION...PROFILE
DATA IS QUITE SATURATED IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WI.

WE WILL BE TRAPPED IN A COOL AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
TUESDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS IS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BRINGING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT OF REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN
ADDITION TO THE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

THE FIRST LOW WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS EAST IN NORTHERN MO.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIELD OF RAIN STRETCHING WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
SPREADING OVER MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO THUNDER IS UNLIKELY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST NEAR THE IA/MO
BORDER.  LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX...WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.  RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FURTHER SUPPRESSING/WEAKENING THE FORCING OVER OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

A SECOND LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND.  MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE FIRST ONE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF GIVES US A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SUPPRESSES
THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES OUR AREA DRY.  EITHER WAY...THE COOL PATTERN
FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. APPRECIABLE PRECIP AS EXITED
THE AREA...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STABLE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TRAPPED LOW STRATUS UNDER AN INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LIFR MIXED IN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS LATE MORNING TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY
VFR CIGS RETURN TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD DIP
TO LIFR AT TIMES. MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GRADUAL
RAISING OF THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT
IFR LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. PM SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...SPD





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