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000
FXUS63 KMPX 280119
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE WELL ACROSS OUR FA TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOME INITIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING
AROUND KFRM FILLED IN. ONLY A FEW BREAKS WERE NOTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMKT AND AROUND KDTL. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SSW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHICH MAY ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY WORK ALL THE WAY INTO THE TWIN CITIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE SD BORDER.

ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC
OMEGA. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IT/S A VERY SIMILAR SET UP THERMALLY TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE ECMX
MOS VERIFYING WELL ON MONDAY...INCLUDED ABOUT A 50 PERCENT BLEND
FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE OTHER HALF BEING RAW BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO THE MID 40S IN SW MN. THIS MAY BE 3 OR 4 DEGREES
TOO COOL DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE
JANUARY WHERE THE AVERAGE LOW/HIGH IS 8/25. SOME SMALL POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW WERE INTRODUCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (21Z-24Z) NER LAKE
MILLE LACS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH POST-FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES...SO EXPECTING ALL
SNOW.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED
WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
THE STRENGTH OF THE H300 JET SHOULD PROMOTE OCCLUSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACT WILL
DETERMINE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERABLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE
FASTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS HOLDING STRONG ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVE
AND GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS AND CONTINUED MILD
SE FLOW...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CEILINGS WILL
DISPERSE ANYTIME SOON. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS AT
THE START FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT
INTO LATE WED MRNG. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURG THE DAY TMRW... BUT
STILL WITHIN MVFR RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF PRECIP MENTION THRU 00Z AS
MODELS DEPICT LITTLE TO NO CHC AT THAT POINT...BUT THIS THINKING
MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. WINDS REMAIN
CONSISTENTLY SE THRU LATE DAY TMRW THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS THE
CDFNT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP TMRW EVE PUSHES THRU.
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRNT LOOK TO GO VRBL CLOSE TO 5 KT.

KMSP...INITIALIZED WITH OVC017 CEILINGS AND WILL LOOK FOR CIGS TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS BY 06Z...REMAINING THERE THRU DAYBREAK. EVEN AS
CIGS RISE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE BY LATE MRNG...CIGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD UNTIL LATE AFTN SO
THIS MAY AFFECT THE EVE PUSH. CIGS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE THRU THE
MVFR RANGE DURG THE EVE HRS BUT CHCS DO INCREASE TO SEE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIP TMRW EVE...SO MUCH SO THAT A PROB30 FOR THIS
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280119
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE WELL ACROSS OUR FA TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOME INITIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING
AROUND KFRM FILLED IN. ONLY A FEW BREAKS WERE NOTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMKT AND AROUND KDTL. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SSW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHICH MAY ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY WORK ALL THE WAY INTO THE TWIN CITIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE SD BORDER.

ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC
OMEGA. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IT/S A VERY SIMILAR SET UP THERMALLY TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE ECMX
MOS VERIFYING WELL ON MONDAY...INCLUDED ABOUT A 50 PERCENT BLEND
FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE OTHER HALF BEING RAW BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO THE MID 40S IN SW MN. THIS MAY BE 3 OR 4 DEGREES
TOO COOL DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE
JANUARY WHERE THE AVERAGE LOW/HIGH IS 8/25. SOME SMALL POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW WERE INTRODUCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (21Z-24Z) NER LAKE
MILLE LACS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH POST-FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES...SO EXPECTING ALL
SNOW.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED
WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
THE STRENGTH OF THE H300 JET SHOULD PROMOTE OCCLUSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACT WILL
DETERMINE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERABLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE
FASTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS HOLDING STRONG ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVE
AND GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS AND CONTINUED MILD
SE FLOW...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CEILINGS WILL
DISPERSE ANYTIME SOON. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS AT
THE START FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT
INTO LATE WED MRNG. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURG THE DAY TMRW... BUT
STILL WITHIN MVFR RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF PRECIP MENTION THRU 00Z AS
MODELS DEPICT LITTLE TO NO CHC AT THAT POINT...BUT THIS THINKING
MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. WINDS REMAIN
CONSISTENTLY SE THRU LATE DAY TMRW THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS THE
CDFNT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP TMRW EVE PUSHES THRU.
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRNT LOOK TO GO VRBL CLOSE TO 5 KT.

KMSP...INITIALIZED WITH OVC017 CEILINGS AND WILL LOOK FOR CIGS TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS BY 06Z...REMAINING THERE THRU DAYBREAK. EVEN AS
CIGS RISE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE BY LATE MRNG...CIGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD UNTIL LATE AFTN SO
THIS MAY AFFECT THE EVE PUSH. CIGS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE THRU THE
MVFR RANGE DURG THE EVE HRS BUT CHCS DO INCREASE TO SEE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIP TMRW EVE...SO MUCH SO THAT A PROB30 FOR THIS
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272120
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE WELL ACROSS OUR FA TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOME INITIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING
AROUND KFRM FILLED IN. ONLY A FEW BREAKS WERE NOTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMKT AND AROUND KDTL. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SSW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHICH MAY ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY WORK ALL THE WAY INTO THE TWIN
CITIES BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE SD BORDER.

ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC
OMEGA. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IT/S A VERY SIMILAR SET UP THERMALLY TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE ECMX
MOS VERIFYING WELL ON MONDAY...INCLUDED ABOUT A 50 PERCENT BLEND
FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE OTHER HALF BEING RAW BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO THE MID 40S IN SW MN. THIS MAY BE 3 OR 4 DEGREES
TOO COOL DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE
JANUARY WHERE THE AVERAGE LOW/HIGH IS 8/25. SOME SMALL POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW WERE INTRODUCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (21Z-24Z) NER LAKE
MILLE LACS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH POST-FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES...SO EXPECTING ALL
SNOW.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED
WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE H300 JET SHOULD PROMOTE OCCLUSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE FASTER
LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION IS ONLY SHOWING MINOR SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME BREAKS MAY REACH NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD KSTC...BUT FOR THE MOST PART MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS FROM KRWF TO KAXN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR BY THIS EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND OF THESE AREAS DO IMPROVE TO LOW
MVFR...THEY MAY GO BACK DOWN UNDER 010 LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MVFR BR DEVELOPING.

KMSP...BACKED AWAY FROM ANY VFR CEILINGS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW ALLOWING FOR CLEARING OVER
IA TO REACH IN. THE VFR TREND DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST LONG
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR. CHC -SN/FZDZ WIND E 5 KT BCMG NW 10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272120
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE WELL ACROSS OUR FA TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOME INITIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING
AROUND KFRM FILLED IN. ONLY A FEW BREAKS WERE NOTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMKT AND AROUND KDTL. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SSW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHICH MAY ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY WORK ALL THE WAY INTO THE TWIN
CITIES BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE SD BORDER.

ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC
OMEGA. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IT/S A VERY SIMILAR SET UP THERMALLY TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE ECMX
MOS VERIFYING WELL ON MONDAY...INCLUDED ABOUT A 50 PERCENT BLEND
FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE OTHER HALF BEING RAW BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO THE MID 40S IN SW MN. THIS MAY BE 3 OR 4 DEGREES
TOO COOL DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE
JANUARY WHERE THE AVERAGE LOW/HIGH IS 8/25. SOME SMALL POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW WERE INTRODUCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (21Z-24Z) NER LAKE
MILLE LACS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH POST-FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES...SO EXPECTING ALL
SNOW.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED
WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE H300 JET SHOULD PROMOTE OCCLUSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE FASTER
LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION IS ONLY SHOWING MINOR SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME BREAKS MAY REACH NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD KSTC...BUT FOR THE MOST PART MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS FROM KRWF TO KAXN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR BY THIS EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND OF THESE AREAS DO IMPROVE TO LOW
MVFR...THEY MAY GO BACK DOWN UNDER 010 LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MVFR BR DEVELOPING.

KMSP...BACKED AWAY FROM ANY VFR CEILINGS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW ALLOWING FOR CLEARING OVER
IA TO REACH IN. THE VFR TREND DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST LONG
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR. CHC -SN/FZDZ WIND E 5 KT BCMG NW 10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 271748
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1148 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE STRATUS
EAST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO REDWOOD FALLS AND ALBERT LEA...
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUN AT SOME POINT TODAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS
DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE
BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MILDER START
HOWEVER...THIS ISN`T MUCH OF A STRETCH AND IN SOME PLACES IT MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN WHERE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER
SET OF MILD LOWS. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FLOW ALOFT DOES
TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DID
THROUGH A SMALL WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

INITIALLY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR LOFT WORKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH WHICH TRAIL
SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. 40S LIKELY TO THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING IS
WEAK BUT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A MIX POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POPS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOCATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK FORCING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AS HE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLDEST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FLOW AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE...WE COULD CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION IS ONLY SHOWING MINOR SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME BREAKS MAY REACH NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD KSTC...BUT FOR THE MOST PART MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS FROM KRWF TO KAXN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR BY THIS EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND OF THESE AREAS DO IMPROVE TO LOW
MVFR...THEY MAY GO BACK DOWN UNDER 010 LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MVFR BR DEVELOPING.

KMSP...BACKED AWAY FROM ANY VFR CEILINGS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW ALLOWING FOR CLEARING OVER
IA TO REACH IN. THE VFR TREND DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST LONG
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR. CHC -SN/FZDZ WIND E 5 KT BCMG NW 10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271748
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1148 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE STRATUS
EAST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO REDWOOD FALLS AND ALBERT LEA...
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUN AT SOME POINT TODAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS
DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE
BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MILDER START
HOWEVER...THIS ISN`T MUCH OF A STRETCH AND IN SOME PLACES IT MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN WHERE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER
SET OF MILD LOWS. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FLOW ALOFT DOES
TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DID
THROUGH A SMALL WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

INITIALLY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR LOFT WORKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH WHICH TRAIL
SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. 40S LIKELY TO THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING IS
WEAK BUT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A MIX POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POPS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOCATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK FORCING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AS HE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLDEST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FLOW AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE...WE COULD CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION IS ONLY SHOWING MINOR SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME BREAKS MAY REACH NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD KSTC...BUT FOR THE MOST PART MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS FROM KRWF TO KAXN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR BY THIS EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND OF THESE AREAS DO IMPROVE TO LOW
MVFR...THEY MAY GO BACK DOWN UNDER 010 LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MVFR BR DEVELOPING.

KMSP...BACKED AWAY FROM ANY VFR CEILINGS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW ALLOWING FOR CLEARING OVER
IA TO REACH IN. THE VFR TREND DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST LONG
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR. CHC -SN/FZDZ WIND E 5 KT BCMG NW 10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 271211 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE STRATUS
EAST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO REDWOOD FALLS AND ALBERT LEA...
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUN AT SOME POINT TODAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS
DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE
BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MILDER START
HOWEVER...THIS ISN`T MUCH OF A STRETCH AND IN SOME PLACES IT MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN WHERE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER
SET OF MILD LOWS. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FLOW ALOFT DOES
TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DID
THROUGH A SMALL WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

INITIALLY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR LOFT WORKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH WHICH TRAIL
SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. 40S LIKELY TO THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING IS
WEAK BUT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A MIX POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POPS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOCATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK FORCING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AS HE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLDEST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FLOW AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE...WE COULD CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE DECLINES BY THE AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE CLOUD LAYER THAT BREAKS FORM AND
CIGS QUICKLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDDAY. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PESSIMISTIC AND MAINTAINS THE MVFR CIGS ALL DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID IMPROVEMENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PLAYED IT OPTIMISTICALLY FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS BEFORE MAKING DRASTIC CHANGES.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE CIGS DROP TO FL017 FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE IMPROVEMENT IS RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271211 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE STRATUS
EAST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO REDWOOD FALLS AND ALBERT LEA...
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUN AT SOME POINT TODAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS
DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE
BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MILDER START
HOWEVER...THIS ISN`T MUCH OF A STRETCH AND IN SOME PLACES IT MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN WHERE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER
SET OF MILD LOWS. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FLOW ALOFT DOES
TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DID
THROUGH A SMALL WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

INITIALLY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR LOFT WORKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH WHICH TRAIL
SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. 40S LIKELY TO THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING IS
WEAK BUT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A MIX POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POPS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOCATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK FORCING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AS HE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLDEST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FLOW AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE...WE COULD CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE DECLINES BY THE AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE CLOUD LAYER THAT BREAKS FORM AND
CIGS QUICKLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDDAY. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PESSIMISTIC AND MAINTAINS THE MVFR CIGS ALL DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID IMPROVEMENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PLAYED IT OPTIMISTICALLY FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS BEFORE MAKING DRASTIC CHANGES.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE CIGS DROP TO FL017 FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE IMPROVEMENT IS RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270930
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE STRATUS
EAST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO REDWOOD FALLS AND ALBERT LEA...
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUN AT SOME POINT TODAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS
DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE
BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MILDER START
HOWEVER...THIS ISN`T MUCH OF A STRETCH AND IN SOME PLACES IT MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN WHERE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER
SET OF MILD LOWS. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FLOW ALOFT DOES
TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DID
THROUGH A SMALL WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

INITIALLY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR LOFT WORKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH WHICH TRAIL
SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY LATE WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. 40S LIKELY TO THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING IS
WEAK BUT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A MIX POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POPS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOCATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK FORCING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AS HE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLDEST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FLOW AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE...WE COULD CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

OUTSIDE OF KRWF...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY 3000-3200FT...SHOULD SEE SLOW
LOWERING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITY AND PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING.

KMSP...
WHILE WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE BELOW 3000FT FOR THE MORNING
RUSH...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
1700FT. SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS
TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE N-NE BY THE
MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270930
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE STRATUS
EAST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO REDWOOD FALLS AND ALBERT LEA...
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUN AT SOME POINT TODAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS
DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE
BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MILDER START
HOWEVER...THIS ISN`T MUCH OF A STRETCH AND IN SOME PLACES IT MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN WHERE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER
SET OF MILD LOWS. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FLOW ALOFT DOES
TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DID
THROUGH A SMALL WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

INITIALLY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR LOFT WORKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH WHICH TRAIL
SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY LATE WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. 40S LIKELY TO THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING IS
WEAK BUT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A MIX POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POPS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOCATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK FORCING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AS HE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLDEST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FLOW AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE...WE COULD CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

OUTSIDE OF KRWF...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY 3000-3200FT...SHOULD SEE SLOW
LOWERING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITY AND PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING.

KMSP...
WHILE WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE BELOW 3000FT FOR THE MORNING
RUSH...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
1700FT. SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS
TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE N-NE BY THE
MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 270440
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR DULUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN WI...JUST EAST OF THE MN
BORDER.  TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THIS CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS GO NEARLY CALM. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE SATURATED AT 925MB BUT CAN
EASILY IMPACTED BY SURFACE MOISTURE.  AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK AND COULD LOCK ANY LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN.

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE MID 20S WITH -FZDZ AND -SN BEING REPORTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  VERY LIGHT AND SCATTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHILE THE COOLDOWN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES BRINGING
REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.

THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NOTE...WEDNEDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...SO DID NOT WARM TEMPS SINCE MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM WARMING OUT OF CONTROL DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIMITING TEMPS TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY...AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND TO ECHO THE THOUGHTS
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

OUTSIDE OF KRWF...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY 3000-3200FT...SHOULD SEE SLOW
LOWERING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITY AND PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING.

KMSP...
WHILE WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE BELOW 3000FT FOR THE MORNING
RUSH...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
1700FT. SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS
TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE N-NE BY THE
MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270440
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR DULUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN WI...JUST EAST OF THE MN
BORDER.  TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THIS CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS GO NEARLY CALM. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE SATURATED AT 925MB BUT CAN
EASILY IMPACTED BY SURFACE MOISTURE.  AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK AND COULD LOCK ANY LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN.

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE MID 20S WITH -FZDZ AND -SN BEING REPORTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  VERY LIGHT AND SCATTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHILE THE COOLDOWN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES BRINGING
REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.

THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NOTE...WEDNEDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...SO DID NOT WARM TEMPS SINCE MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM WARMING OUT OF CONTROL DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIMITING TEMPS TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY...AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND TO ECHO THE THOUGHTS
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

OUTSIDE OF KRWF...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY 3000-3200FT...SHOULD SEE SLOW
LOWERING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITY AND PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING.

KMSP...
WHILE WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE BELOW 3000FT FOR THE MORNING
RUSH...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
1700FT. SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS
TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE N-NE BY THE
MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 270004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR DULUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN WI...JUST EAST OF THE MN
BORDER.  TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THIS CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS GO NEARLY CALM. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE SATURATED AT 925MB BUT CAN
EASILY IMPACTED BY SURFACE MOISTURE.  AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK AND COULD LOCK ANY LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN.

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE MID 20S WITH -FZDZ AND -SN BEING REPORTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  VERY LIGHT AND SCATTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHILE THE COOLDOWN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES BRINGING
REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.

THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NOTE...WEDNEDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...SO DID NOT WARM TEMPS SINCE MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM WARMING OUT OF CONTROL DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIMITING TEMPS TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY...AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND TO ECHO THE THOUGHTS
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ONCE IT ARRIVES...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP IN MINNESOTA
AND WHAT FALLS IN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. WE DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
KEAU OR KRNH IN THE 00Z TAF...A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL THE WI SITES WILL JUST HAVE THE LOW
CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH. SITES CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
3000-4000FT EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD EXPECT A LOWERING WITH TIME.

KMSP...
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 2000FT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...BUT WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
CEILINGS MUCH LOWER THAN THAT...SAY LOWER THAN 1700FT. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THOUGH. KMSP SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 262145
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR DULUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN WI...JUST EAST OF THE MN
BORDER.  TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THIS CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS GO NEARLY CALM. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE SATURATED AT 925MB BUT CAN
EASILY IMPACTED BY SURFACE MOISTURE.  AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK AND COULD LOCK ANY LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN.

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE MID 20S WITH -FZDZ AND -SN BEING REPORTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  VERY LIGHT AND SCATTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHILE THE COOLDOWN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SANDWHICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES BRINGING
REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.

THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NOTE...WEDNEDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...SO DID NOT WARM TEMPS SINCE MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM WARMING OUT OF CONTROL DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIMITING TEMPS TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY...AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND TO ECHO THE THOUGHTS
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S HAS REACHED THE MN/WI
BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF IT...AND
COLD TEMPS/-SN/-FZDZ EAST AND NORTH OF IT UNDER LOW STRATUS.
EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WESTERN MN
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND EXPECT VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED SCENARIO IN EASTERN MN...NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. 925 RH FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
GET STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN MN ADVECTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STILL...NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE HIGH RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ACTUALLY TRANSLATING TO LOW CIGS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING JUST ABOVE
THIS LEVEL /AND THE INVERSION/ MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND
SCATTERED OUT THE LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...BUT BE AWARE THERE
IS POTENTIAL THE LOW CIGS COULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT.

KMSP...VFR INITIALLY AS WE LINGER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THINKING WE`LL RIDE THE EDGE FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT SCT AFTER 07Z...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE EVALUATING CIG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 262145
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR DULUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN WI...JUST EAST OF THE MN
BORDER.  TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THIS CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS GO NEARLY CALM. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE SATURATED AT 925MB BUT CAN
EASILY IMPACTED BY SURFACE MOISTURE.  AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK AND COULD LOCK ANY LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN.

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE MID 20S WITH -FZDZ AND -SN BEING REPORTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  VERY LIGHT AND SCATTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHILE THE COOLDOWN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SANDWHICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES BRINGING
REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.

THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NOTE...WEDNEDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...SO DID NOT WARM TEMPS SINCE MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM WARMING OUT OF CONTROL DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIMITING TEMPS TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY...AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND TO ECHO THE THOUGHTS
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S HAS REACHED THE MN/WI
BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF IT...AND
COLD TEMPS/-SN/-FZDZ EAST AND NORTH OF IT UNDER LOW STRATUS.
EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WESTERN MN
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND EXPECT VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED SCENARIO IN EASTERN MN...NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. 925 RH FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
GET STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN MN ADVECTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STILL...NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE HIGH RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ACTUALLY TRANSLATING TO LOW CIGS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING JUST ABOVE
THIS LEVEL /AND THE INVERSION/ MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND
SCATTERED OUT THE LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...BUT BE AWARE THERE
IS POTENTIAL THE LOW CIGS COULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT.

KMSP...VFR INITIALLY AS WE LINGER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THINKING WE`LL RIDE THE EDGE FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT SCT AFTER 07Z...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE EVALUATING CIG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 261809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON AND ALBERT
LEA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 30S WEST OF
IT...AND EVEN APPROACHING 40 AT SISSETON SD AND MADISON MN.

A LARGER AND STEADIER BATCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
YET...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WI AS THE
STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
OVERHEAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR IMPACT
CONSIDERATIONS AND THUS WILL LEAVE IT IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI
UNTIL 18Z.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WRN MN TO THE UPPER 20S
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN MATERIALIZES OUT
WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 50. BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COLD OVER MN TODAY...AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
AN OVERESTIMATION OF SNOW DEPTH. MANY LOCALES ONLY HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS ON THE GROUND WHICH WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
FURTHERMORE...THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
WHEN LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS IS CLEARLY NOT THE CASE. ECMWF
APPEARS CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THIS REGARD AND IS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. FRUSTRATING
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING POSSIBLE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS PRESSURE DOMINATING
TUESDAY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DRAWS INTO THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME WARMTH OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD STILL WARM READINGS THROUGH THE 30S MOST
AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND WITH THIS WAVE BEING A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED/STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF THIS CONTINUES...POPS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO ONCE AGAIN AS WE START OUT WITH A
RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAVE OF THE
SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW COLD IT WILL GET INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF THE
MAIN CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT ALSO LEAVES US
NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN DRIVING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TREND OF THE CFSV2 HAS
BEEN TO TEMPER THE DURATION OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ARCTIC INTRUSION. IT STILL IS THERE HOWEVER SO WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WE DID MANAGE TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE ECMWF TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABOVE
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT WILL HAMPER
READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO WILL BE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S HAS REACHED THE MN/WI
BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF IT...AND
COLD TEMPS/-SN/-FZDZ EAST AND NORTH OF IT UNDER LOW STRATUS.
EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WESTERN MN
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND EXPECT VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED SCENARIO IN EASTERN MN...NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. 925 RH FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
GET STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN MN ADVECTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STILL...NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE HIGH RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ACTUALLY TRANSLATING TO LOW CIGS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING JUST ABOVE
THIS LEVEL /AND THE INVERSION/ MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND
SCATTERED OUT THE LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...BUT BE AWARE THERE
IS POTENTIAL THE LOW CIGS COULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT.

KMSP...VFR INITIALLY AS WE LINGER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THINKING WE`LL RIDE THE EDGE FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT SCT AFTER 07Z...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE EVALUATING CIG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 261809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON AND ALBERT
LEA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 30S WEST OF
IT...AND EVEN APPROACHING 40 AT SISSETON SD AND MADISON MN.

A LARGER AND STEADIER BATCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
YET...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WI AS THE
STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
OVERHEAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR IMPACT
CONSIDERATIONS AND THUS WILL LEAVE IT IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI
UNTIL 18Z.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WRN MN TO THE UPPER 20S
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN MATERIALIZES OUT
WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 50. BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COLD OVER MN TODAY...AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
AN OVERESTIMATION OF SNOW DEPTH. MANY LOCALES ONLY HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS ON THE GROUND WHICH WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
FURTHERMORE...THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
WHEN LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS IS CLEARLY NOT THE CASE. ECMWF
APPEARS CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THIS REGARD AND IS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. FRUSTRATING
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING POSSIBLE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS PRESSURE DOMINATING
TUESDAY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DRAWS INTO THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME WARMTH OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD STILL WARM READINGS THROUGH THE 30S MOST
AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND WITH THIS WAVE BEING A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED/STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF THIS CONTINUES...POPS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO ONCE AGAIN AS WE START OUT WITH A
RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAVE OF THE
SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW COLD IT WILL GET INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF THE
MAIN CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT ALSO LEAVES US
NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN DRIVING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TREND OF THE CFSV2 HAS
BEEN TO TEMPER THE DURATION OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ARCTIC INTRUSION. IT STILL IS THERE HOWEVER SO WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WE DID MANAGE TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE ECMWF TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABOVE
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT WILL HAMPER
READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO WILL BE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S HAS REACHED THE MN/WI
BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF IT...AND
COLD TEMPS/-SN/-FZDZ EAST AND NORTH OF IT UNDER LOW STRATUS.
EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WESTERN MN
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND EXPECT VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED SCENARIO IN EASTERN MN...NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. 925 RH FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
GET STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN MN ADVECTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STILL...NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE HIGH RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ACTUALLY TRANSLATING TO LOW CIGS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING JUST ABOVE
THIS LEVEL /AND THE INVERSION/ MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND
SCATTERED OUT THE LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...BUT BE AWARE THERE
IS POTENTIAL THE LOW CIGS COULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT.

KMSP...VFR INITIALLY AS WE LINGER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THINKING WE`LL RIDE THE EDGE FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT SCT AFTER 07Z...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE EVALUATING CIG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 261235 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON AND ALBERT
LEA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 30S WEST OF
IT...AND EVEN APPROACHING 40 AT SISSETON SD AND MADISON MN.

A LARGER AND STEADIER BATCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
YET...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WI AS THE
STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
OVERHEAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR IMPACT
CONSIDERATIONS AND THUS WILL LEAVE IT IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI
UNTIL 18Z.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WRN MN TO THE UPPER 20S
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN MATERIALIZES OUT
WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 50. BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COLD OVER MN TODAY...AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
AN OVERESTIMATION OF SNOW DEPTH. MANY LOCALES ONLY HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS ON THE GROUND WHICH WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
FURTHERMORE...THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
WHEN LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS IS CLEARLY NOT THE CASE. ECMWF
APPEARS CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THIS REGARD AND IS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. FRUSTRATING
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING POSSIBLE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS PRESSURE DOMINATING
TUESDAY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DRAWS INTO THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME WARMTH OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD STILL WARM READINGS THROUGH THE 30S MOST
AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND WITH THIS WAVE BEING A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED/STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF THIS CONTINUES...POPS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO ONCE AGAIN AS WE START OUT WITH A
RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAVE OF THE
SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW COLD IT WILL GET INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF THE
MAIN CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT ALSO LEAVES US
NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN DRIVING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TREND OF THE CFSV2 HAS
BEEN TO TEMPER THE DURATION OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ARCTIC INTRUSION. IT STILL IS THERE HOWEVER SO WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WE DID MANAGE TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE ECMWF TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABOVE
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT WILL HAMPER
READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO WILL BE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM LXL TO ACQ AND AEL. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT...LARGELY VFR TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING LOWER CIGS
ACROSS WI...WHILE THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MN WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CIGS AS CLOUDS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NRN MN SINKS
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW OVER WI WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 16Z.

KMSP...MVFR WITH SOME INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
16Z...THEN WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME VFR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY WX FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ015-016-
     025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 260937
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON AND ALBERT
LEA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 30S WEST OF
IT...AND EVEN APPROACHING 40 AT SISSETON SD AND MADISON MN.

A LARGER AND STEADIER BATCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
YET...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WI AS THE
STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
OVERHEAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR IMPACT
CONSIDERATIONS AND THUS WILL LEAVE IT IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI
UNTIL 18Z.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WRN MN TO THE UPPER 20S
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN MATERIALIZES OUT
WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 50. BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COLD OVER MN TODAY...AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
AN OVERESTIMATION OF SNOW DEPTH. MANY LOCALES ONLY HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS ON THE GROUND WHICH WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
FURTHERMORE...THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
WHEN LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS IS CLEARLY NOT THE CASE. ECMWF
APPEARS CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THIS REGARD AND IS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. FRUSTRATING
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING POSSIBLE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS PRESSURE DOMINATING
TUESDAY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DRAWS INTO THE AREA LATER
WEDENSDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME WARMTH OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD STILL WARM READINGS THROUGH THE 30S MOST
AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND WITH THIS WAVE BEING A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED/STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF THIS CONTINUES...POPS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO ONCE AGAIN AS WE START OUT WITH A
RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAVE OF THE
SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW COLD IT WILL GET INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF THE
MAIN CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT ALSO LEAVES US
NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN DRIVING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TREND OF THE CFSV2 HAS
BEEN TO TEMPER THE DURATION OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ARCTIC INTRUSION. IT STILL IS THERE HOWEVER SO WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WE DID MANAGE TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE ECMWF TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABOVE
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT WILL HAMPER
READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO WILL BE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOOK FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES...BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST WHEN AND
WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN. WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER TO
THE RADAR AND SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS START GIVING US A FEEL OF
THE WEATHER TYPE. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KMSP...
WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE TAF...ONLY BECAUSE WE
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPIATION TYPE. DRIZZLE
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR WE THINK IT
WILL BE QUITE BRIEF. IN THESE CASES...WE HAVE A HARD TIME KNOWING
SPECIFICALLY WHERE/WHEN THE PRECIP TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO
DRIZZLE. IT CAN ALSO SWITCH BACK AND FORTH. THE ~2000FT CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT...BUT THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING OUR VIEW OF THE LOW CLOUDS...SO IT`S TOUGH TO GET A
FEEL FOR HOW THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EVOLVING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ015-016-
     025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 260937
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON AND ALBERT
LEA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 30S WEST OF
IT...AND EVEN APPROACHING 40 AT SISSETON SD AND MADISON MN.

A LARGER AND STEADIER BATCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
YET...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WI AS THE
STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
OVERHEAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR IMPACT
CONSIDERATIONS AND THUS WILL LEAVE IT IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI
UNTIL 18Z.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WRN MN TO THE UPPER 20S
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN MATERIALIZES OUT
WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 50. BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COLD OVER MN TODAY...AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
AN OVERESTIMATION OF SNOW DEPTH. MANY LOCALES ONLY HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS ON THE GROUND WHICH WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
FURTHERMORE...THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
WHEN LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS IS CLEARLY NOT THE CASE. ECMWF
APPEARS CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THIS REGARD AND IS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. FRUSTRATING
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING POSSIBLE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS PRESSURE DOMINATING
TUESDAY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DRAWS INTO THE AREA LATER
WEDENSDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME WARMTH OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD STILL WARM READINGS THROUGH THE 30S MOST
AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND WITH THIS WAVE BEING A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED/STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF THIS CONTINUES...POPS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO ONCE AGAIN AS WE START OUT WITH A
RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAVE OF THE
SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW COLD IT WILL GET INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF THE
MAIN CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT ALSO LEAVES US
NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN DRIVING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TREND OF THE CFSV2 HAS
BEEN TO TEMPER THE DURATION OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ARCTIC INTRUSION. IT STILL IS THERE HOWEVER SO WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WE DID MANAGE TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE ECMWF TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABOVE
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT WILL HAMPER
READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO WILL BE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOOK FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES...BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST WHEN AND
WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN. WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER TO
THE RADAR AND SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS START GIVING US A FEEL OF
THE WEATHER TYPE. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KMSP...
WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE TAF...ONLY BECAUSE WE
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPIATION TYPE. DRIZZLE
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR WE THINK IT
WILL BE QUITE BRIEF. IN THESE CASES...WE HAVE A HARD TIME KNOWING
SPECIFICALLY WHERE/WHEN THE PRECIP TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO
DRIZZLE. IT CAN ALSO SWITCH BACK AND FORTH. THE ~2000FT CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT...BUT THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING OUR VIEW OF THE LOW CLOUDS...SO IT`S TOUGH TO GET A
FEEL FOR HOW THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EVOLVING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ015-016-
     025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 260517
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI...THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS FROM HUTCHINSON ON
NORTH THROUGH LITTLE FALLS. A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THESE AREAS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING AROUND AND RISING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TURN
AROUND IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. MODEL
TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY (RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EAST). FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
DWINDLE TO A HALF INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN MN.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TONIGHT IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT SPREADING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN MN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS ADJOINING
AREAS OF WESTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. VARIOUS WRFS TODAY HAVE
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING WITH THE SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN MN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
INDICATED WITH THE PTYPE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER WEST TO THE SD BORDER AND SOUTH TO IA TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS SPOTTY AND THE
DURATION AT THIS POINT IS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE
DATA SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SFC-800MB) AND STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND FAR WESTERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...SWITCHED PTYPE TO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
USED PRETTY MUCH BC RAW BLEND FOR GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SW MN...THE UPPER 30S FROM KSTC
THROUGH KMSP WITH MIDDLE 30S AT KEAU.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PICKING UP THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT...WE`LL BE DEALING WITH PUSHING
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN WI.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL ALREADY BE DRY BY THIS TIME.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION...A RECIPE FOR
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SO THAT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY...SO WE WON`T
SEE MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...SUNSHINE...AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTION WAS DIALED BACK IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT...AND
THIS HELD CONSISTENT TODAY. SO...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WERE
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HINDER
ADDITIONAL WARMING DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.  SO...STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSURE...BUT WON`T BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET BUCKLES AND ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES SOUTH.  THE
FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH IS WHERE DOES THE CORE OF THE COLD LINE UP.
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE COLD JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW.  THE EC HOWEVER
INDICATES A COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  REGARDLESS...WE CAN EXPECT AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOOK FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES...BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST WHEN AND
WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN. WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER TO
THE RADAR AND SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS START GIVING US A FEEL OF
THE WEATHER TYPE. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KMSP...
WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE TAF...ONLY BECAUSE WE
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPIATION TYPE. DRIZZLE
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR WE THINK IT
WILL BE QUITE BRIEF. IN THESE CASES...WE HAVE A HARD TIME KNOWING
SPECIFICALLY WHERE/WHEN THE PRECIP TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO
DRIZZLE. IT CAN ALSO SWITCH BACK AND FORTH. THE ~2000FT CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT...BUT THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING OUR VIEW OF THE LOW CLOUDS...SO IT`S TOUGH TO GET A
FEEL FOR HOW THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EVOLVING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 260517
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI...THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS FROM HUTCHINSON ON
NORTH THROUGH LITTLE FALLS. A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THESE AREAS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING AROUND AND RISING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TURN
AROUND IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. MODEL
TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY (RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EAST). FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
DWINDLE TO A HALF INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN MN.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TONIGHT IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT SPREADING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN MN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS ADJOINING
AREAS OF WESTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. VARIOUS WRFS TODAY HAVE
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING WITH THE SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN MN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
INDICATED WITH THE PTYPE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER WEST TO THE SD BORDER AND SOUTH TO IA TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS SPOTTY AND THE
DURATION AT THIS POINT IS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE
DATA SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SFC-800MB) AND STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND FAR WESTERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...SWITCHED PTYPE TO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
USED PRETTY MUCH BC RAW BLEND FOR GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SW MN...THE UPPER 30S FROM KSTC
THROUGH KMSP WITH MIDDLE 30S AT KEAU.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PICKING UP THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT...WE`LL BE DEALING WITH PUSHING
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN WI.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL ALREADY BE DRY BY THIS TIME.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION...A RECIPE FOR
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SO THAT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY...SO WE WON`T
SEE MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...SUNSHINE...AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTION WAS DIALED BACK IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT...AND
THIS HELD CONSISTENT TODAY. SO...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WERE
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HINDER
ADDITIONAL WARMING DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.  SO...STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSURE...BUT WON`T BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET BUCKLES AND ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES SOUTH.  THE
FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH IS WHERE DOES THE CORE OF THE COLD LINE UP.
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE COLD JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW.  THE EC HOWEVER
INDICATES A COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  REGARDLESS...WE CAN EXPECT AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOOK FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES...BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST WHEN AND
WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN. WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER TO
THE RADAR AND SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS START GIVING US A FEEL OF
THE WEATHER TYPE. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KMSP...
WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE TAF...ONLY BECAUSE WE
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPIATION TYPE. DRIZZLE
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR WE THINK IT
WILL BE QUITE BRIEF. IN THESE CASES...WE HAVE A HARD TIME KNOWING
SPECIFICALLY WHERE/WHEN THE PRECIP TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO
DRIZZLE. IT CAN ALSO SWITCH BACK AND FORTH. THE ~2000FT CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT...BUT THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING OUR VIEW OF THE LOW CLOUDS...SO IT`S TOUGH TO GET A
FEEL FOR HOW THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EVOLVING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 260020
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI...THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS FROM HUTCHINSON ON
NORTH THROUGH LITTLE FALLS. A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THESE AREAS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING AROUND AND RISING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TURN
AROUND IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. MODEL
TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY (RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EAST). FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
DWINDLE TO A HALF INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN MN.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TONIGHT IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT SPREADING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN MN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS ADJOINING
AREAS OF WESTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. VARIOUS WRFS TODAY HAVE
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING WITH THE SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN MN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
INDICATED WITH THE PTYPE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER WEST TO THE SD BORDER AND SOUTH TO IA TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS SPOTTY AND THE
DURATION AT THIS POINT IS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE
DATA SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SFC-800MB) AND STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND FAR WESTERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...SWITCHED PTYPE TO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
USED PRETTY MUCH BC RAW BLEND FOR GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SW MN...THE UPPER 30S FROM KSTC
THROUGH KMSP WITH MIDDLE 30S AT KEAU.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PICKING UP THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT...WE`LL BE DEALING WITH PUSHING
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN WI.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL ALREADY BE DRY BY THIS TIME.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION...A RECIPE FOR
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SO THAT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY...SO WE WON`T
SEE MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...SUNSHINE...AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTION WAS DIALED BACK IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT...AND
THIS HELD CONSISTENT TODAY. SO...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WERE
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HINDER
ADDITIONAL WARMING DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.  SO...STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSURE...BUT WON`T BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET BUCKLES AND ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES SOUTH.  THE
FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH IS WHERE DOES THE CORE OF THE COLD LINE UP.
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE COLD JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW.  THE EC HOWEVER
INDICATES A COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  REGARDLESS...WE CAN EXPECT AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FAIRLY COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. WE EXPECT A BANK OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SLOWLY
WORK EAST TONIGHT ACROSS MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WI. THERE WILL
ALSO BE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY IN
MN...WHERE AS KEAU AND EVEN KRNH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEE
MOSTLY SNOW AND LITTLE TO NO DRIZZLE.

KMSP...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE`RE STILL
IN THE PROCESS OF FIGURING OUT WHERE AND WHEN THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL OCCUR...IT OFTEN MIXES IN WITH LIGHT SNOW...SO IT CAN BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT SPECIFICS WITH MUCH LEAD TIME. THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...LOOK FOR CHANGES IN THE TAF UPDATES OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 260020
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI...THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS FROM HUTCHINSON ON
NORTH THROUGH LITTLE FALLS. A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THESE AREAS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING AROUND AND RISING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TURN
AROUND IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. MODEL
TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY (RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EAST). FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
DWINDLE TO A HALF INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN MN.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TONIGHT IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT SPREADING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN MN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS ADJOINING
AREAS OF WESTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. VARIOUS WRFS TODAY HAVE
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING WITH THE SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN MN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
INDICATED WITH THE PTYPE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER WEST TO THE SD BORDER AND SOUTH TO IA TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS SPOTTY AND THE
DURATION AT THIS POINT IS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE
DATA SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SFC-800MB) AND STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND FAR WESTERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...SWITCHED PTYPE TO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
USED PRETTY MUCH BC RAW BLEND FOR GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SW MN...THE UPPER 30S FROM KSTC
THROUGH KMSP WITH MIDDLE 30S AT KEAU.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PICKING UP THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT...WE`LL BE DEALING WITH PUSHING
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN WI.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL ALREADY BE DRY BY THIS TIME.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION...A RECIPE FOR
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SO THAT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY...SO WE WON`T
SEE MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...SUNSHINE...AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTION WAS DIALED BACK IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT...AND
THIS HELD CONSISTENT TODAY. SO...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WERE
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HINDER
ADDITIONAL WARMING DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.  SO...STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSURE...BUT WON`T BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET BUCKLES AND ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES SOUTH.  THE
FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH IS WHERE DOES THE CORE OF THE COLD LINE UP.
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE COLD JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW.  THE EC HOWEVER
INDICATES A COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  REGARDLESS...WE CAN EXPECT AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FAIRLY COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. WE EXPECT A BANK OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SLOWLY
WORK EAST TONIGHT ACROSS MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WI. THERE WILL
ALSO BE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY IN
MN...WHERE AS KEAU AND EVEN KRNH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEE
MOSTLY SNOW AND LITTLE TO NO DRIZZLE.

KMSP...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE`RE STILL
IN THE PROCESS OF FIGURING OUT WHERE AND WHEN THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL OCCUR...IT OFTEN MIXES IN WITH LIGHT SNOW...SO IT CAN BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT SPECIFICS WITH MUCH LEAD TIME. THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...LOOK FOR CHANGES IN THE TAF UPDATES OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 252128
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI...THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS FROM HUTCHINSON ON
NORTH THROUGH LITTLE FALLS. A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THESE AREAS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING AROUND AND RISING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TURN
AROUND IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. MODEL
TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY (RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EAST). FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
DWINDLE TO A HALF INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN MN.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TONIGHT IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT SPREADING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN MN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS ADJOINING
AREAS OF WESTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. VARIOUS WRFS TODAY HAVE
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING WITH THE SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN MN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
INDICATED WITH THE PTYPE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER WEST TO THE SD BORDER AND SOUTH TO IA TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS SPOTTY AND THE
DURATION AT THIS POINT IS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE
DATA SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SFC-800MB) AND STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND FAR WESTERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...SWITCHED PTYPE TO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
USED PRETTY MUCH BC RAW BLEND FOR GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SW MN...THE UPPER 30S FROM KSTC
THROUGH KMSP WITH MIDDLE 30S AT KEAU.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PICKING UP THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT...WE`LL BE DEALING WITH PUSHING
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN WI.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL ALREADY BE DRY BY THIS TIME.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION...A RECIPE FOR
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SO THAT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY...SO WE WON`T
SEE MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...SUNSHINE...AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTION WAS DIALED BACK IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT...AND
THIS HELD CONSISTENT TODAY. SO...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WERE
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HINDER
ADDITIONAL WARMING DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.  SO...STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSURE...BUT WON`T BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET BUCKLES AND ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES SOUTH.  THE
FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH IS WHERE DOES THE CORE OF THE COLD LINE UP.
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE COLD JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW.  THE EC HOWEVER
INDICATES A COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  REGARDLESS...WE CAN EXPECT AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS TEMPORARILY PARTED THE
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND THE TWIN CITIES.
THIS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS BACK FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH. A CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND KDLH TO KCBG APPREAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND MAY
ARRIVE BEFORE THIS EVENING AT KRNH AND KMSP. HENCE A LOW
CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO SITES.
THE WESTERN TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH A FEW BREAKS
POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER MOVING BY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF MN TONIGHT AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS KSTC...KMSP....KRNH AND KEAU DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. KEAU HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING BACK
TO A FEW TENTHS AT KMSP. ONE PROBLEM FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS
THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO THE TWIN CITIES.
NAM BUFKIT PROFILE DATA INDICATES A POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
SCENARIO. HENCE...FOR THIS CYCLE...INCLUDED SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL OF THE TAFS EXCEPT KRWF.

KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR LOCATED AS CLOSE AS KCMG. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 252128
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI...THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS FROM HUTCHINSON ON
NORTH THROUGH LITTLE FALLS. A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THESE AREAS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING AROUND AND RISING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TURN
AROUND IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. MODEL
TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY (RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EAST). FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
DWINDLE TO A HALF INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN MN.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TONIGHT IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT SPREADING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN MN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS ADJOINING
AREAS OF WESTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. VARIOUS WRFS TODAY HAVE
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING WITH THE SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN MN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
INDICATED WITH THE PTYPE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER WEST TO THE SD BORDER AND SOUTH TO IA TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS SPOTTY AND THE
DURATION AT THIS POINT IS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE
DATA SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SFC-800MB) AND STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND FAR WESTERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...SWITCHED PTYPE TO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
USED PRETTY MUCH BC RAW BLEND FOR GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SW MN...THE UPPER 30S FROM KSTC
THROUGH KMSP WITH MIDDLE 30S AT KEAU.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PICKING UP THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT...WE`LL BE DEALING WITH PUSHING
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN WI.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL ALREADY BE DRY BY THIS TIME.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION...A RECIPE FOR
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SO THAT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY...SO WE WON`T
SEE MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...SUNSHINE...AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTION WAS DIALED BACK IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT...AND
THIS HELD CONSISTENT TODAY. SO...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WERE
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HINDER
ADDITIONAL WARMING DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.  SO...STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSURE...BUT WON`T BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET BUCKLES AND ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES SOUTH.  THE
FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH IS WHERE DOES THE CORE OF THE COLD LINE UP.
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE COLD JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW.  THE EC HOWEVER
INDICATES A COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  REGARDLESS...WE CAN EXPECT AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS TEMPORARILY PARTED THE
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND THE TWIN CITIES.
THIS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS BACK FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH. A CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND KDLH TO KCBG APPREAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND MAY
ARRIVE BEFORE THIS EVENING AT KRNH AND KMSP. HENCE A LOW
CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO SITES.
THE WESTERN TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH A FEW BREAKS
POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER MOVING BY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF MN TONIGHT AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS KSTC...KMSP....KRNH AND KEAU DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. KEAU HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING BACK
TO A FEW TENTHS AT KMSP. ONE PROBLEM FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS
THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO THE TWIN CITIES.
NAM BUFKIT PROFILE DATA INDICATES A POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
SCENARIO. HENCE...FOR THIS CYCLE...INCLUDED SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL OF THE TAFS EXCEPT KRWF.

KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR LOCATED AS CLOSE AS KCMG. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 251800
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL ROTATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW FLURRIES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS NOW SINKING SOUTH
INTO SRN MN AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE. REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING
AREA WIDE. DRIER AIR SHOULD ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI.
HOWEVER... CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH...IF AT
ALL TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER TEENS BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ONCE IT DOES SO...
AGGRESSIVE WAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO NEAR
40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WRN MN. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN WI AND
FAR ERN MN. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AT LEAST...THEN HEADED COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SHOULD EXIT EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS
WAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER WITH MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING HEADED EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOME WARMER AIR INTRUDES INTO WESTERN MN.
NO SNOW COVER INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MN...ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW ANALYSIS. ANY LIGHT COATING
RECEIVED OVERNIGHT WILL MELT OFF RAPIDLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND AND REMAINING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TEMPER READINGS A BIT
IN THE FAR EAST. THIS ALL PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST.

THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BACKING DOWN SOME FOR BIG WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

FINALLY...THE COOLING TREND IS STILL INDICATED OVER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS OF THE EAST COAST NOREASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE TIMING OF
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT HERE. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
SLOWER...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE SNOW INDICATED BEFORE THEN...WITH NEARLY BARE GROUND
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER
OVER THE REGION. THE CFSV2 HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS COLD SHOT FOR
THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE EARLY PART OF FEBRUARY WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS TEMPORARILY PARTED THE
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND THE TWIN CITIES.
THIS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS BACK FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH. A CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND KDLH TO KCBG APPREAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND MAY
ARRIVE BEFORE THIS EVENING AT KRNH AND KMSP. HENCE A LOW
CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO SITES.
THE WESTERN TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH A FEW BREAKS
POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER MOVING BY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF MN TONIGHT AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS KSTC...KMSP....KRNH AND KEAU DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. KEAU HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING BACK
TO A FEW TENTHS AT KMSP. ONE PROBLEM FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS
THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO THE TWIN CITIES.
NAM BUFKIT PROFILE DATA INDICATES A POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
SCENARIO. HENCE...FOR THIS CYCLE...INCLUDED SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL OF THE TAFS EXCEPT KRWF.

KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR LOCATED AS CLOSE AS KCMG. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 251800
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL ROTATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW FLURRIES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS NOW SINKING SOUTH
INTO SRN MN AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE. REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING
AREA WIDE. DRIER AIR SHOULD ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI.
HOWEVER... CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH...IF AT
ALL TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER TEENS BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ONCE IT DOES SO...
AGGRESSIVE WAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO NEAR
40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WRN MN. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN WI AND
FAR ERN MN. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AT LEAST...THEN HEADED COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SHOULD EXIT EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS
WAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER WITH MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING HEADED EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOME WARMER AIR INTRUDES INTO WESTERN MN.
NO SNOW COVER INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MN...ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW ANALYSIS. ANY LIGHT COATING
RECEIVED OVERNIGHT WILL MELT OFF RAPIDLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND AND REMAINING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TEMPER READINGS A BIT
IN THE FAR EAST. THIS ALL PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST.

THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BACKING DOWN SOME FOR BIG WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

FINALLY...THE COOLING TREND IS STILL INDICATED OVER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS OF THE EAST COAST NOREASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE TIMING OF
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT HERE. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
SLOWER...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE SNOW INDICATED BEFORE THEN...WITH NEARLY BARE GROUND
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER
OVER THE REGION. THE CFSV2 HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS COLD SHOT FOR
THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE EARLY PART OF FEBRUARY WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS TEMPORARILY PARTED THE
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND THE TWIN CITIES.
THIS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS BACK FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH. A CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND KDLH TO KCBG APPREAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND MAY
ARRIVE BEFORE THIS EVENING AT KRNH AND KMSP. HENCE A LOW
CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO SITES.
THE WESTERN TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH A FEW BREAKS
POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER MOVING BY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF MN TONIGHT AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS KSTC...KMSP....KRNH AND KEAU DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. KEAU HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING BACK
TO A FEW TENTHS AT KMSP. ONE PROBLEM FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS
THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO THE TWIN CITIES.
NAM BUFKIT PROFILE DATA INDICATES A POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
SCENARIO. HENCE...FOR THIS CYCLE...INCLUDED SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL OF THE TAFS EXCEPT KRWF.

KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR LOCATED AS CLOSE AS KCMG. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 251224 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL ROTATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW FLURRIES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS NOW SINKING SOUTH
INTO SRN MN AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE. REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING
AREA WIDE. DRIER AIR SHOULD ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI.
HOWEVER... CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH...IF AT
ALL TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER TEENS BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ONCE IT DOES SO...
AGGRESSIVE WAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO NEAR
40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WRN MN. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN WI AND
FAR ERN MN. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AT LEAST...THEN HEADED COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SHOULD EXIT EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS
WAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER WITH MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING HEADED EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOME WARMER AIR INTRUDES INTO WESTERN MN.
NO SNOW COVER INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MN...ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW ANALYSIS. ANY LIGHT COATING
RECEIVED OVERNIGHT WILL MELT OFF RAPIDLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND AND REMAINING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TEMPER READINGS A BIT
IN THE FAR EAST. THIS ALL PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST.

THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BACKING DOWN SOME FOR BIG WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

FINALLY...THE COOLING TREND IS STILL INDICATED OVER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS OF THE EAST COAST NOREASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE TIMING OF
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT HERE. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
SLOWER...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE SNOW INDICATED BEFORE THEN...WITH NEARLY BARE GROUND
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER
OVER THE REGION. THE CFSV2 HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS COLD SHOT FOR
THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE EARLY PART OF FEBRUARY WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CIGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING RANGING
FROM IFR TO VFR...SOMETIMES ACROSS ONE COUNTY. THIS LEADS TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LEVELS...BUT THINK A
GENERAL TREND TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY
TOO PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WINTER. VFR
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE WI TAF LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 5-10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 251224 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL ROTATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW FLURRIES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS NOW SINKING SOUTH
INTO SRN MN AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE. REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING
AREA WIDE. DRIER AIR SHOULD ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI.
HOWEVER... CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH...IF AT
ALL TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER TEENS BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ONCE IT DOES SO...
AGGRESSIVE WAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO NEAR
40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WRN MN. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN WI AND
FAR ERN MN. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AT LEAST...THEN HEADED COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SHOULD EXIT EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS
WAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER WITH MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING HEADED EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOME WARMER AIR INTRUDES INTO WESTERN MN.
NO SNOW COVER INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MN...ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW ANALYSIS. ANY LIGHT COATING
RECEIVED OVERNIGHT WILL MELT OFF RAPIDLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND AND REMAINING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TEMPER READINGS A BIT
IN THE FAR EAST. THIS ALL PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST.

THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BACKING DOWN SOME FOR BIG WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

FINALLY...THE COOLING TREND IS STILL INDICATED OVER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS OF THE EAST COAST NOREASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE TIMING OF
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT HERE. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
SLOWER...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE SNOW INDICATED BEFORE THEN...WITH NEARLY BARE GROUND
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER
OVER THE REGION. THE CFSV2 HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS COLD SHOT FOR
THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE EARLY PART OF FEBRUARY WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CIGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING RANGING
FROM IFR TO VFR...SOMETIMES ACROSS ONE COUNTY. THIS LEADS TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LEVELS...BUT THINK A
GENERAL TREND TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY
TOO PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WINTER. VFR
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE WI TAF LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 5-10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250927
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
327 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL ROTATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW FLURRIES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS NOW SINKING SOUTH
INTO SRN MN AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE. REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING
AREA WIDE. DRIER AIR SHOULD ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI.
HOWEVER... CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH...IF AT
ALL TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER TEENS BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ONCE IT DOES SO...
AGGRESSIVE WAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO NEAR
40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WRN MN. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN WI AND
FAR ERN MN. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AT LEAST...THEN HEADED COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SHOULD EXIT EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS
WAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER WITH MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING HEADED EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOME WARMER AIR INTRUDES INTO WESTERN MN.
NO SNOW COVER INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MN...ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW ANALYSIS. ANY LIGHT COATING
RECEIVED OVERNIGHT WILL MELT OFF RAPIDLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND AND REMAINING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TEMPER READINGS A BIT
IN THE FAR EAST. THIS ALL PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST.

THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BACKING DOWN SOME FOR BIG WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNFICANT WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

FINALLY...THE COOLING TREND IS STILL INDICATED OVER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS OF THE EAST COAST NOREASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE TIMING OF
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT HERE. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
SLOWER...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE SNOW INDCIATED BEFORE THEN...WITH NEARLY BARE GROUND ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET
QUITE AS COLD AS IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER OVER THE
REGION. THE CFSV2 HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS COLD SHOT FOR THE LAST
WEEK OR SO WITH THE EARLY PART OF FEBRUARY WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A MIXED BAG OF CEILINGS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MN/WI.
GENERALLY...WE THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BUT VIS RESTRICTION TO LIFR/IFR DUE TO FALLING SNOW IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...THAT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE LATE MORNING.

KMSP...
MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
THE SNOW/RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...CHC MVFR CIG/-SN EARLY THEN VFR. WIND W-SW 10-15 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250553
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF MOSTLY
RAIN MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  THIS FEATURE IS
WEST OF WHAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED...AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FALLING SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON THROUGH MANKATO
TOWARD ROCHESTER.  HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW/HOPWRF ALL INDICATE THIS SOUTHWESTERN SOLUTION AS
WELL.  OVERALL...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE SLIGHTLY REDUCED AND THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF ABOUT 2" SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST.

IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS ONCE THE PRECIP
SHIELD IS OVERHEAD...AND IT SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE RAPID COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE
THE SURFACE THANKS TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SO ONLY EXPECT RAIN TO
LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW. THE
OVERALL ONSET OF THE PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN DELAYED...SO AREAS FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST SHOULD SEE SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE WE`VE RECEIVED THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS LESSER TOTAL QPF IN THE HEAVIEST AXIS...SO ALSO TRENDED
THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. THE PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MOVES THROUGH QUITE QUICKLY ONCE THE PRECIP
ARRIVES.  PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN WILL LOSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
WARM TEMPS AS WELL.  TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE COMMONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S INCLUDING A FEW SITES IN THE 40S.

THE SNOW SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.  CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.  THE TEMP FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD JUST LIKE TODAY IF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE CAN RETURN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BE HEADED ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND WI SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES.
HENCE...ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE LOSS OF ICE
ALOFT MONDAY MORNING RESULTS IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING
CARRIED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COUNTIES. EVEN WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING BY...MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN WI TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS BY WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING
OUR ABOVE NORMAL STREAK ON TEMPERATURES. WITH LESS SNOW FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA...WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRETTY MUCH USED THE
ECEMOS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH DROVE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S AT
KEAU...THE LOWER 40S IN THE TWIN CITIES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

A TWO PIECE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY IS A LOW OFF BAJA RIGHT NOW
WHILE THE SECOND IS A SHORT WAVE RIDING IN THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.
THE TWO ARE PROGGED TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A BIG SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA WITH CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL WARMTH...SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
EVENING IS LIGHT RAIN.

A MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER IS INDICATED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND BY THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT BUT EVENTUALLY
UNLEASHES ARCTIC AIR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CERTAINLY A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL TO
BEGIN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A MIXED BAG OF CEILINGS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MN/WI.
GENERALLY...WE THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BUT VIS RESTRICTION TO LIFR/IFR DUE TO FALLING SNOW IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...THAT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE LATE MORNING.

KMSP...
MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
THE SNOW/RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...CHC MVFR CIG/-SN EARLY THEN VFR. WIND W-SW 10-15 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250553
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF MOSTLY
RAIN MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  THIS FEATURE IS
WEST OF WHAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED...AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FALLING SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON THROUGH MANKATO
TOWARD ROCHESTER.  HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW/HOPWRF ALL INDICATE THIS SOUTHWESTERN SOLUTION AS
WELL.  OVERALL...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE SLIGHTLY REDUCED AND THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF ABOUT 2" SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST.

IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS ONCE THE PRECIP
SHIELD IS OVERHEAD...AND IT SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE RAPID COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE
THE SURFACE THANKS TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SO ONLY EXPECT RAIN TO
LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW. THE
OVERALL ONSET OF THE PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN DELAYED...SO AREAS FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST SHOULD SEE SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE WE`VE RECEIVED THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS LESSER TOTAL QPF IN THE HEAVIEST AXIS...SO ALSO TRENDED
THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. THE PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MOVES THROUGH QUITE QUICKLY ONCE THE PRECIP
ARRIVES.  PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN WILL LOSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
WARM TEMPS AS WELL.  TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE COMMONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S INCLUDING A FEW SITES IN THE 40S.

THE SNOW SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.  CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.  THE TEMP FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD JUST LIKE TODAY IF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE CAN RETURN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BE HEADED ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND WI SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES.
HENCE...ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE LOSS OF ICE
ALOFT MONDAY MORNING RESULTS IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING
CARRIED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COUNTIES. EVEN WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING BY...MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN WI TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS BY WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING
OUR ABOVE NORMAL STREAK ON TEMPERATURES. WITH LESS SNOW FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA...WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRETTY MUCH USED THE
ECEMOS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH DROVE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S AT
KEAU...THE LOWER 40S IN THE TWIN CITIES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

A TWO PIECE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY IS A LOW OFF BAJA RIGHT NOW
WHILE THE SECOND IS A SHORT WAVE RIDING IN THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.
THE TWO ARE PROGGED TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A BIG SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA WITH CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL WARMTH...SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
EVENING IS LIGHT RAIN.

A MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER IS INDICATED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND BY THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT BUT EVENTUALLY
UNLEASHES ARCTIC AIR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CERTAINLY A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL TO
BEGIN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
A MIXED BAG OF CEILINGS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MN/WI.
GENERALLY...WE THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BUT VIS RESTRICTION TO LIFR/IFR DUE TO FALLING SNOW IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...THAT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE LATE MORNING.

KMSP...
MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
THE SNOW/RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...CHC MVFR CIG/-SN EARLY THEN VFR. WIND W-SW 10-15 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





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