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000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC









000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 190511
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190511
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 190055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AT LEAST THRU MIDDAY TMRW...AS
SE WINDS BRINGS IN LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE DRIFTING THRU. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT
LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS
GUIDANCE HINTING AS SUCH FOR KAXN-KSTC. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM
LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD WITH OCNL FLURRIES DRIFTING ACRS. AM XPCTG
CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 1700 THRU THIS EVE THEN
EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK
INTO MVFR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC









000
FXUS63 KMPX 182109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN EARLY
THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA OF
-SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME VERY
LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY AGAIN
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA OF LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE FROM
THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK IS THE
ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS
THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL THURSDAY...BUT AFTER
THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET INTO
INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY IS MORE
TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE SAT/SAT
NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR NOW...KEPT
SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT NIGHT. THE
REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE WILL HAVE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE WILL
SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE DGZ...ALONG
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AS
WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN AREAS...SO CONTINUED
TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN
MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY AS FAR AS
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE WILL ROUND THE
TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970 MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN
THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE
COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE
ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850 TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY
THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE
FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO SPEND
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM TONGUE OF AIR
UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET BULB TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...PROFILES
STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO SNOW...THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN TO PUSH THE THREAT
FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE
GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP
ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN
THE LATEST MODELS RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE
GET NEXT WEEK. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS
SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER THIS MORNING A CLOUD LAYER ARND 1.5 TO 2.5K AGL MOVED
FROM WC WI...INTO EC MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BECAME
ESE/SE THIS MORNING. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER HELD NEAR -10C TO
-12C...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION CONTD...PLUS THE ADDED AFFECT OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER...LED TO -SN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM THIS AFTN AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW...SO THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N/NE AND ONLY AFFECT KRNH/KEAU THRU
THE NEXT 6 HRS. ELSEWHERE...KSTC WILL SEE VFR CONDS BY 21-23Z. AFT
00Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM NE/IA BACK INTO SW
MN AND CAUSE KRWF/KAXN TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE MVFR CIGS FOR EC MN/WC
WI...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SW/WC
MN AFT 00Z. THIS IS MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...NOT SO MUCH OF WILL
IT OCCUR OR NOT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ESE/SE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

LAST BATCH OF -SN SHOULD MOVE THRU THE AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA BY
18-19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE W/SW AND ADVECT INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 20-22Z. TIMING REMAINS THE MAY PROBLEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE VFR CONDS BY 21Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY COME BACK INTO EC MN FRIDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS THE
MAIN DILEMMA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING. WINDS WILL HOLD FROM THE ESE/SE THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SLOWLY INCREASE FROM 3-5 KTS THIS AFTN...TO 6-8 KTS
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN EARLY
THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA OF
-SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME VERY
LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY AGAIN
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA OF LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE FROM
THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK IS THE
ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS
THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL THURSDAY...BUT AFTER
THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET INTO
INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY IS MORE
TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE SAT/SAT
NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR NOW...KEPT
SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT NIGHT. THE
REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE WILL HAVE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE WILL
SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE DGZ...ALONG
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AS
WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN AREAS...SO CONTINUED
TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN
MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY AS FAR AS
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE WILL ROUND THE
TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970 MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN
THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE
COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE
ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850 TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY
THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE
FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO SPEND
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM TONGUE OF AIR
UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET BULB TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...PROFILES
STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO SNOW...THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN TO PUSH THE THREAT
FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE
GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP
ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN
THE LATEST MODELS RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE
GET NEXT WEEK. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS
SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER THIS MORNING A CLOUD LAYER ARND 1.5 TO 2.5K AGL MOVED
FROM WC WI...INTO EC MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BECAME
ESE/SE THIS MORNING. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER HELD NEAR -10C TO
-12C...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION CONTD...PLUS THE ADDED AFFECT OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER...LED TO -SN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM THIS AFTN AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW...SO THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N/NE AND ONLY AFFECT KRNH/KEAU THRU
THE NEXT 6 HRS. ELSEWHERE...KSTC WILL SEE VFR CONDS BY 21-23Z. AFT
00Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM NE/IA BACK INTO SW
MN AND CAUSE KRWF/KAXN TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE MVFR CIGS FOR EC MN/WC
WI...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SW/WC
MN AFT 00Z. THIS IS MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...NOT SO MUCH OF WILL
IT OCCUR OR NOT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ESE/SE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

LAST BATCH OF -SN SHOULD MOVE THRU THE AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA BY
18-19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE W/SW AND ADVECT INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 20-22Z. TIMING REMAINS THE MAY PROBLEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE VFR CONDS BY 21Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY COME BACK INTO EC MN FRIDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS THE
MAIN DILEMMA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING. WINDS WILL HOLD FROM THE ESE/SE THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SLOWLY INCREASE FROM 3-5 KTS THIS AFTN...TO 6-8 KTS
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181719
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1119 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WET BULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER THIS MORNING A CLOUD LAYER ARND 1.5 TO 2.5K AGL MOVED
FROM WC WI...INTO EC MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BECAME
ESE/SE THIS MORNING. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER HELD NEAR -10C TO
-12C...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION CONTD...PLUS THE ADDED AFFECT OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER...LED TO -SN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM THIS AFTN AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW...SO THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N/NE AND ONLY AFFECT KRNH/KEAU THRU
THE NEXT 6 HRS. ELSEWHERE...KSTC WILL SEE VFR CONDS BY 21-23Z. AFT
00Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM NE/IA BACK INTO SW
MN AND CAUSE KRWF/KAXN TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE MVFR CIGS FOR EC MN/WC
WI...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SW/WC
MN AFT 00Z. THIS IS MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...NOT SO MUCH OF WILL
IT OCCUR OR NOT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ESE/SE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

LAST BATCH OF -SN SHOULD MOVE THRU THE AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA BY
18-19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE W/SW AND ADVECT INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 20-22Z. TIMING REMAINS THE MAY PROBLEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE VFR CONDS BY 21Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY COME BACK INTO EC MN FRIDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS THE
MAIN DILEMMA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING. WINDS WILL HOLD FROM THE ESE/SE THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SLOWLY INCREASE FROM 3-5 KTS THIS AFTN...TO 6-8 KTS
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181719
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1119 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WET BULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER THIS MORNING A CLOUD LAYER ARND 1.5 TO 2.5K AGL MOVED
FROM WC WI...INTO EC MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BECAME
ESE/SE THIS MORNING. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER HELD NEAR -10C TO
-12C...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION CONTD...PLUS THE ADDED AFFECT OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER...LED TO -SN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM THIS AFTN AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW...SO THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N/NE AND ONLY AFFECT KRNH/KEAU THRU
THE NEXT 6 HRS. ELSEWHERE...KSTC WILL SEE VFR CONDS BY 21-23Z. AFT
00Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM NE/IA BACK INTO SW
MN AND CAUSE KRWF/KAXN TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE MVFR CIGS FOR EC MN/WC
WI...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SW/WC
MN AFT 00Z. THIS IS MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...NOT SO MUCH OF WILL
IT OCCUR OR NOT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ESE/SE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

LAST BATCH OF -SN SHOULD MOVE THRU THE AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA BY
18-19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE W/SW AND ADVECT INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 20-22Z. TIMING REMAINS THE MAY PROBLEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE VFR CONDS BY 21Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY COME BACK INTO EC MN FRIDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS THE
MAIN DILEMMA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING. WINDS WILL HOLD FROM THE ESE/SE THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SLOWLY INCREASE FROM 3-5 KTS THIS AFTN...TO 6-8 KTS
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181243 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WET BULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS FORECASTING
THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS DECK. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHED THE
EASTERN VICINITY RING OF MSP AT 08Z...BUT HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY
ZERO PROGRESS WEST SINCE THAT TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT WILL
SEE MVFR FOR A PERIOD...BUT LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE
MORNING. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS...THE MVFR DECK WILL LINGER WITHIN
ONE COUNTY OF MSP...AND MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN BKN AND SCT COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EVEN THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME HOLDS
TRUE FOR ST CLOUD. RNH AND EAU ARE SOLIDLY UNDER THE STRATUS DECK
AND I EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALL DAY. VFR CIGS FOR AXN AND
RWF.

KMSP...A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF JUST 3 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z RAOB AT MPX ON THE 925MB LEVEL. SKIES WERE CLEAR AT THE
TIME. SO...A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THIS LEVEL...TO SHRINK THAT
DEPRESSION BY ONE DEGREE...IS LIKELY ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO GET A
BKN DECK OF STRATUS. SO THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN FORECASTING
VFR OR MVFR GIVEN THE CHALLENGE OF DETERMINING WHERE THAT EDGE
SETS UP AND HOW OR IF IT MOVES. PART OF THE REASON FOR LEANING
OPTIMISTIC WAS THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD EDGE HELD STEADY FOR MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT WHEN I EXPECTED IT TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS WEST.
FLIRTING WITH THE EDGE MOST OF TODAY MEANS AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD











000
FXUS63 KMPX 181243 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WET BULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS FORECASTING
THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS DECK. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHED THE
EASTERN VICINITY RING OF MSP AT 08Z...BUT HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY
ZERO PROGRESS WEST SINCE THAT TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT WILL
SEE MVFR FOR A PERIOD...BUT LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE
MORNING. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS...THE MVFR DECK WILL LINGER WITHIN
ONE COUNTY OF MSP...AND MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN BKN AND SCT COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EVEN THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME HOLDS
TRUE FOR ST CLOUD. RNH AND EAU ARE SOLIDLY UNDER THE STRATUS DECK
AND I EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALL DAY. VFR CIGS FOR AXN AND
RWF.

KMSP...A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF JUST 3 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z RAOB AT MPX ON THE 925MB LEVEL. SKIES WERE CLEAR AT THE
TIME. SO...A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THIS LEVEL...TO SHRINK THAT
DEPRESSION BY ONE DEGREE...IS LIKELY ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO GET A
BKN DECK OF STRATUS. SO THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN FORECASTING
VFR OR MVFR GIVEN THE CHALLENGE OF DETERMINING WHERE THAT EDGE
SETS UP AND HOW OR IF IT MOVES. PART OF THE REASON FOR LEANING
OPTIMISTIC WAS THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD EDGE HELD STEADY FOR MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT WHEN I EXPECTED IT TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS WEST.
FLIRTING WITH THE EDGE MOST OF TODAY MEANS AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD










000
FXUS63 KMPX 181243 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WET BULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS FORECASTING
THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS DECK. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHED THE
EASTERN VICINITY RING OF MSP AT 08Z...BUT HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY
ZERO PROGRESS WEST SINCE THAT TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT WILL
SEE MVFR FOR A PERIOD...BUT LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE
MORNING. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS...THE MVFR DECK WILL LINGER WITHIN
ONE COUNTY OF MSP...AND MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN BKN AND SCT COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EVEN THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME HOLDS
TRUE FOR ST CLOUD. RNH AND EAU ARE SOLIDLY UNDER THE STRATUS DECK
AND I EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALL DAY. VFR CIGS FOR AXN AND
RWF.

KMSP...A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF JUST 3 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z RAOB AT MPX ON THE 925MB LEVEL. SKIES WERE CLEAR AT THE
TIME. SO...A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THIS LEVEL...TO SHRINK THAT
DEPRESSION BY ONE DEGREE...IS LIKELY ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO GET A
BKN DECK OF STRATUS. SO THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN FORECASTING
VFR OR MVFR GIVEN THE CHALLENGE OF DETERMINING WHERE THAT EDGE
SETS UP AND HOW OR IF IT MOVES. PART OF THE REASON FOR LEANING
OPTIMISTIC WAS THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD EDGE HELD STEADY FOR MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT WHEN I EXPECTED IT TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS WEST.
FLIRTING WITH THE EDGE MOST OF TODAY MEANS AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD










000
FXUS63 KMPX 181154
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WETBULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS FORECASTING
THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS DECK. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHED THE
EASTERN VICINITY RING OF MSP AT 08Z...BUT HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY
ZERO PROGRESS WEST SINCE THAT TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT WILL
SEE MVFR FOR A PERIOD...BUT LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE
MORNING. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS...THE MVFR DECK WILL LINGER WITHIN
ONE COUNTY OF MSP...AND MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN BKN AND SCT COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EVEN THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME HOLDS
TRUE FOR ST CLOUD. RNH AND EAU ARE SOLIDLY UNDER THE STRATUS DECK
AND I EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALL DAY. VFR CIGS FOR AXN AND RWF.

KMSP...A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF JUST 3 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z RAOB AT MPX ON THE 925MB LEVEL. SKIES WERE CLEAR AT THE
TIME. SO...A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THIS LEVEL...TO SHRINK THAT
DEPRESSION BY ONE DEGREE...IS LIKELY ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO GET A
BKN DECK OF STRATUS. SO THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN FORECASTING
VFR OR MVFR GIVEN THE CHALLENGE OF DETERMINING WHERE THAT EDGE
SETS UP AND HOW OR IF IT MOVES. PART OF THE REASON FOR LEANING
OPTIMISTIC WAS THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD EDGE HELD STEADY FOR MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT WHEN I EXPECTED IT TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS WEST.
FLIRTING WITH THE EDGE MOST OF TODAY MEANS AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181021
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WETBULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RATHER MASSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OOZING IN FROM
WI INTO EAST CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. KRNH AND KEAU WILL EXPERIENCE
PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH KMSP EVENTUALLY SEEING MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL DECK OF SD/NE/IA WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL... WITH KAXN AND
KRWF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 7KFT-9KFT DECK. WHILE EASTERN
SITES MAY SEE THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST /UNDER 5 KTS/ ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...
BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO KMSP
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CIGS TO STAY ABOVE 1700 FT. SHOULD SEE
THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING...BUT BE REPLACED BY
A BKN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 8000FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181021
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN YET AGAIN
TODAY.  A SOLID SHIELD OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
ONLY GET SO FAR UNDER THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLOUD LINE HALTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN
TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.  EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST. ONE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
MONTANA...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHER
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH...NOTHING TOO EXCITING WILL
COME OF THERE WAVES.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN MN
EASTWARD TODAY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SATURATION...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST...BUT WE`LL SEE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOP BY TONIGHT.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH
A WARMER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND POPS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THERE SHOULD BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

CLOSER TO THE PRESENT TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WAA AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON QPF
DURING THIS TIME...BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING IT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH...BUT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO GROW SUNDAY...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH THE DGZ MOISTENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AS AN INNOCENT
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF NOT ONLY
THE LOW...BUT OF WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
CWA WITH NOT MUCH BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR WRN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE ERN CWA PRECIP CHANCES...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WETBULB TEMPS
DO INCH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT EVOLUTION IN LARGE PART WILL DEPEND
ON THE PHASING OF IT WITH A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150-175KT UPPER JET...AND GAIN STRENGTH AS A 100+ KT
500MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...THE RESULTING SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE HIGHLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM AND STRONG JET STREAK SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP A VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM MOVING MUCH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF SUCH A
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
MEMBERS HAVE DEEPENED THE SYSTEM TO LESS THAN 950 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THINK MOST OF
THE SERIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST...BUT PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ARE POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RATHER MASSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OOZING IN FROM
WI INTO EAST CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. KRNH AND KEAU WILL EXPERIENCE
PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH KMSP EVENTUALLY SEEING MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL DECK OF SD/NE/IA WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL... WITH KAXN AND
KRWF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 7KFT-9KFT DECK. WHILE EASTERN
SITES MAY SEE THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST /UNDER 5 KTS/ ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...
BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO KMSP
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CIGS TO STAY ABOVE 1700 FT. SHOULD SEE
THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING...BUT BE REPLACED BY
A BKN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 8000FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS









000
FXUS63 KMPX 180501
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LONG WAVE SHEAR AXIS THAT HAD AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
CLDS/FLURRIES WAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EC/CENTRAL MN AND INTO WC WI.
BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CLR/CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. WHERE THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR
TODAY AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL QUICKLY. DEBATED ON SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS /MPXWRF
AND HOPWRF/ FOR SFC LOWS TONIGHT /-2F TO -8F/...BUT THESE SEEM TO
LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEW PTS ARND 10 DEGREES. HAVE OPTED
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NEAR
ZERO IN WC/SW MN WHERE CLR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW PACK
WILL LEAD TO LOWER TEMPS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAYS
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.

FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE BIG HIGHLIGHT FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH ERN PAC RIDGING AND NOAM TROUGHING MAKING A RETURN. YOUR
TYPICAL TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS STILL EXIST...BUT IN
GENERAL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY AND DISORGANIZED
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL START TAKING SHAPE...WITH
A STRONGER WAVE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
MON/TUE AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS ONE OF TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST/SOUTH WITH WHERE THIS DEEPENING OCCURS.

MAIN THING EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS THAT THE BANK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SPLAYED OUT ACROSS BOTH THE
CANADIAN AND U.S. HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIS
VALLEY AS THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO WRN MN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO KEPT BOTH DAYS DRY. FRIDAY..THE PRIMARY
UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE GOING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN ADDITION...WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE THERE
IS AROUND THE 290K SFC IS CENTERED IN NE MN...WHERE THE 17.15 SREF
DOES SHOW SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT
SATURDAY DRY AS WELL...THOUGH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA
COULD LEAD TO THE GENERATION OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH WITH NO DEEP
MOISTURE IT WOULD BE DRIZZLE.

HAVE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THIS IS WHEN WE START SEEING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STARTING
TO WORK UP INTO THE AREA...THOUGH UPPER FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE
LACKING...SO THIS WOULD BE LIGHT AT BEST.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK BETTER STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING ALL THE WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE WITH A SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MN ON MONDAY. IT STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF I-94
TO LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION THIS LOW
GOES THROUGH...IT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IMPACTING
THE AREA MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IT IS SLOWEST...THE ECMWF IS ALSO
THE MOST BULLISH WITH QPF...WITH A HEALTHY SWATH OF AROUND 0.75"
ROTATING AROUND SE MN...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW...OF COURSE THIS FALLS OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AS NW WINDS START CRANKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC LOW DIPPING UNDER 970 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...STILL WAY TO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS/IMPACTS...BUT GIVEN INCREASED TRAVEL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. WILL ALSO
ADD A MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NEXT WEEK IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RATHER MASSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OOZING IN FROM
WI INTO EAST CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. KRNH AND KEAU WILL EXPERIENCE
PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH KMSP EVENTUALLY SEEING MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL DECK OF SD/NE/IA WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL... WITH KAXN AND
KRWF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 7KFT-9KFT DECK. WHILE EASTERN
SITES MAY SEE THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST /UNDER 5 KTS/ ON THURSDAY.


KMSP...
BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO KMSP
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CIGS TO STAY ABOVE 1700 FT. SHOULD SEE
THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING...BUT BE REPLACED BY
A BKN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 8000FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 180501
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LONG WAVE SHEAR AXIS THAT HAD AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
CLDS/FLURRIES WAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EC/CENTRAL MN AND INTO WC WI.
BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CLR/CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. WHERE THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR
TODAY AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL QUICKLY. DEBATED ON SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS /MPXWRF
AND HOPWRF/ FOR SFC LOWS TONIGHT /-2F TO -8F/...BUT THESE SEEM TO
LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEW PTS ARND 10 DEGREES. HAVE OPTED
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NEAR
ZERO IN WC/SW MN WHERE CLR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW PACK
WILL LEAD TO LOWER TEMPS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAYS
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.

FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE BIG HIGHLIGHT FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH ERN PAC RIDGING AND NOAM TROUGHING MAKING A RETURN. YOUR
TYPICAL TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS STILL EXIST...BUT IN
GENERAL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY AND DISORGANIZED
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL START TAKING SHAPE...WITH
A STRONGER WAVE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
MON/TUE AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS ONE OF TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST/SOUTH WITH WHERE THIS DEEPENING OCCURS.

MAIN THING EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS THAT THE BANK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SPLAYED OUT ACROSS BOTH THE
CANADIAN AND U.S. HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIS
VALLEY AS THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO WRN MN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO KEPT BOTH DAYS DRY. FRIDAY..THE PRIMARY
UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE GOING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN ADDITION...WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE THERE
IS AROUND THE 290K SFC IS CENTERED IN NE MN...WHERE THE 17.15 SREF
DOES SHOW SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT
SATURDAY DRY AS WELL...THOUGH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA
COULD LEAD TO THE GENERATION OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH WITH NO DEEP
MOISTURE IT WOULD BE DRIZZLE.

HAVE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THIS IS WHEN WE START SEEING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STARTING
TO WORK UP INTO THE AREA...THOUGH UPPER FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE
LACKING...SO THIS WOULD BE LIGHT AT BEST.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK BETTER STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING ALL THE WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE WITH A SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MN ON MONDAY. IT STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF I-94
TO LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION THIS LOW
GOES THROUGH...IT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IMPACTING
THE AREA MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IT IS SLOWEST...THE ECMWF IS ALSO
THE MOST BULLISH WITH QPF...WITH A HEALTHY SWATH OF AROUND 0.75"
ROTATING AROUND SE MN...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW...OF COURSE THIS FALLS OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AS NW WINDS START CRANKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC LOW DIPPING UNDER 970 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...STILL WAY TO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS/IMPACTS...BUT GIVEN INCREASED TRAVEL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. WILL ALSO
ADD A MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NEXT WEEK IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RATHER MASSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OOZING IN FROM
WI INTO EAST CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. KRNH AND KEAU WILL EXPERIENCE
PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH KMSP EVENTUALLY SEEING MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL DECK OF SD/NE/IA WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL... WITH KAXN AND
KRWF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 7KFT-9KFT DECK. WHILE EASTERN
SITES MAY SEE THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST /UNDER 5 KTS/ ON THURSDAY.


KMSP...
BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO KMSP
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CIGS TO STAY ABOVE 1700 FT. SHOULD SEE
THE MVFR DECK SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING...BUT BE REPLACED BY
A BKN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 8000FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 172353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LONG WAVE SHEAR AXIS THAT HAD AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
CLDS/FLURRIES WAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EC/CENTRAL MN AND INTO WC WI.
BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CLR/CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. WHERE THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR
TODAY AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL QUICKLY. DEBATED ON SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS /MPXWRF
AND HOPWRF/ FOR SFC LOWS TONIGHT /-2F TO -8F/...BUT THESE SEEM TO
LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEW PTS ARND 10 DEGREES. HAVE OPTED
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NEAR
ZERO IN WC/SW MN WHERE CLR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW PACK
WILL LEAD TO LOWER TEMPS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAYS
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.

FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE BIG HIGHLIGHT FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH ERN PAC RIDGING AND NOAM TROUGHING MAKING A RETURN. YOUR
TYPICAL TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS STILL EXIST...BUT IN
GENERAL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY AND DISORGANIZED
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL START TAKING SHAPE...WITH
A STRONGER WAVE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
MON/TUE AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS ONE OF TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST/SOUTH WITH WHERE THIS DEEPENING OCCURS.

MAIN THING EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS THAT THE BANK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SPLAYED OUT ACROSS BOTH THE
CANADIAN AND U.S. HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIS
VALLEY AS THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO WRN MN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO KEPT BOTH DAYS DRY. FRIDAY..THE PRIMARY
UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE GOING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN ADDITION...WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE THERE
IS AROUND THE 290K SFC IS CENTERED IN NE MN...WHERE THE 17.15 SREF
DOES SHOW SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT
SATURDAY DRY AS WELL...THOUGH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA
COULD LEAD TO THE GENERATION OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH WITH NO DEEP
MOISTURE IT WOULD BE DRIZZLE.

HAVE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THIS IS WHEN WE START SEEING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STARTING
TO WORK UP INTO THE AREA...THOUGH UPPER FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE
LACKING...SO THIS WOULD BE LIGHT AT BEST.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK BETTER STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING ALL THE WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE WITH A SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MN ON MONDAY. IT STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF I-94
TO LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION THIS LOW
GOES THROUGH...IT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IMPACTING
THE AREA MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IT IS SLOWEST...THE ECMWF IS ALSO
THE MOST BULLISH WITH QPF...WITH A HEALTHY SWATH OF AROUND 0.75"
ROTATING AROUND SE MN...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW...OF COURSE THIS FALLS OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AS NW WINDS START CRANKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC LOW DIPPING UNDER 970 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...STILL WAY TO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS/IMPACTS...BUT GIVEN INCREASED TRAVEL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. WILL ALSO
ADD A MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NEXT WEEK IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SPOKES
OF MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH BACK
INTO THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU TONIGHT AS
LLVL MOISTURE GETS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. HAVE
INCLUDED BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN
SITES...BUT AM OPTIMISTIC KMSP WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME
BROKEN BY MID-DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
LIGHT SOUTHEAST /UNDER 5 KTS/ ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...
BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 172353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LONG WAVE SHEAR AXIS THAT HAD AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
CLDS/FLURRIES WAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EC/CENTRAL MN AND INTO WC WI.
BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CLR/CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. WHERE THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR
TODAY AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL QUICKLY. DEBATED ON SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS /MPXWRF
AND HOPWRF/ FOR SFC LOWS TONIGHT /-2F TO -8F/...BUT THESE SEEM TO
LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEW PTS ARND 10 DEGREES. HAVE OPTED
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NEAR
ZERO IN WC/SW MN WHERE CLR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW PACK
WILL LEAD TO LOWER TEMPS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAYS
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.

FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE BIG HIGHLIGHT FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH ERN PAC RIDGING AND NOAM TROUGHING MAKING A RETURN. YOUR
TYPICAL TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS STILL EXIST...BUT IN
GENERAL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY AND DISORGANIZED
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL START TAKING SHAPE...WITH
A STRONGER WAVE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
MON/TUE AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS ONE OF TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST/SOUTH WITH WHERE THIS DEEPENING OCCURS.

MAIN THING EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS THAT THE BANK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SPLAYED OUT ACROSS BOTH THE
CANADIAN AND U.S. HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIS
VALLEY AS THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO WRN MN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO KEPT BOTH DAYS DRY. FRIDAY..THE PRIMARY
UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE GOING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN ADDITION...WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE THERE
IS AROUND THE 290K SFC IS CENTERED IN NE MN...WHERE THE 17.15 SREF
DOES SHOW SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT
SATURDAY DRY AS WELL...THOUGH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA
COULD LEAD TO THE GENERATION OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH WITH NO DEEP
MOISTURE IT WOULD BE DRIZZLE.

HAVE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THIS IS WHEN WE START SEEING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STARTING
TO WORK UP INTO THE AREA...THOUGH UPPER FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE
LACKING...SO THIS WOULD BE LIGHT AT BEST.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK BETTER STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING ALL THE WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE WITH A SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MN ON MONDAY. IT STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF I-94
TO LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION THIS LOW
GOES THROUGH...IT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IMPACTING
THE AREA MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IT IS SLOWEST...THE ECMWF IS ALSO
THE MOST BULLISH WITH QPF...WITH A HEALTHY SWATH OF AROUND 0.75"
ROTATING AROUND SE MN...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW...OF COURSE THIS FALLS OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AS NW WINDS START CRANKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC LOW DIPPING UNDER 970 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...STILL WAY TO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS/IMPACTS...BUT GIVEN INCREASED TRAVEL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. WILL ALSO
ADD A MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NEXT WEEK IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SPOKES
OF MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH BACK
INTO THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU TONIGHT AS
LLVL MOISTURE GETS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. HAVE
INCLUDED BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN
SITES...BUT AM OPTIMISTIC KMSP WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME
BROKEN BY MID-DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
LIGHT SOUTHEAST /UNDER 5 KTS/ ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...
BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHANCE -RASN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 172052
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
252 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LONG WAVE SHEAR AXIS THAT HAD AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
CLDS/FLURRIES WAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EC/CENTRAL MN AND INTO WC WI.
BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CLR/CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. WHERE THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR
TODAY AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL QUICKLY. DEBATED ON SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS /MPXWRF
AND HOPWRF/ FOR SFC LOWS TONIGHT /-2F TO -8F/...BUT THESE SEEM TO
LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEW PTS ARND 10 DEGREES. HAVE OPTED
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NEAR
ZERO IN WC/SW MN WHERE CLR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW PACK
WILL LEAD TO LOWER TEMPS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAYS
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.

FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE BIG HIGHLIGHT FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH ERN PAC RIDGING AND NOAM TROUGHING MAKING A RETURN. YOUR
TYPICAL TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS STILL EXIST...BUT IN
GENERAL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY AND DISORGANIZED
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL START TAKING SHAPE...WITH
A STRONGER WAVE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
MON/TUE AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS ONE OF TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST/SOUTH WITH WHERE THIS DEEPENING OCCURS.

MAIN THING EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS THAT THE BANK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SPLAYED OUT ACROSS BOTH THE
CANADIAN AND U.S. HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIS
VALLEY AS THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO WRN MN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO KEPT BOTH DAYS DRY. FRIDAY..THE PRIMARY
UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE GOING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN ADDITION...WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE THERE
IS AROUND THE 290K SFC IS CENTERED IN NE MN...WHERE THE 17.15 SREF
DOES SHOW SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT
SATURDAY DRY AS WELL...THOUGH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA
COULD LEAD TO THE GENERATION OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH WITH NO DEEP
MOISTURE IT WOULD BE DRIZZLE.

HAVE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THIS IS WHEN WE START SEEING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STARTING
TO WORK UP INTO THE AREA...THOUGH UPPER FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE
LACKING...SO THIS WOULD BE LIGHT AT BEST.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK BETTER STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING ALL THE WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE WITH A SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MN ON MONDAY. IT STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF I-94
TO LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION THIS LOW
GOES THROUGH...IT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IMPACTING
THE AREA MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IT IS SLOWEST...THE ECMWF IS ALSO
THE MOST BULLISH WITH QPF...WITH A HEALTHY SWATH OF AROUND 0.75"
ROTATING AROUND SE MN...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW...OF COURSE THIS FALLS OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AS NW WINDS START CRANKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC LOW DIPPING UNDER 970 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...STILL WAY TO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS/IMPACTS...BUT GIVEN INCREASED TRAVEL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. WILL ALSO
ADD A MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NEXT WEEK IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED FLURRIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FORCING REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SINCE
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

KMSP...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AS SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW FLURRIES.
MOST LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL






000
FXUS63 KMPX 172052
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
252 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LONG WAVE SHEAR AXIS THAT HAD AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
CLDS/FLURRIES WAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EC/CENTRAL MN AND INTO WC WI.
BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECREASE
IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CLR/CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. WHERE THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR
TODAY AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL QUICKLY. DEBATED ON SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS /MPXWRF
AND HOPWRF/ FOR SFC LOWS TONIGHT /-2F TO -8F/...BUT THESE SEEM TO
LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEW PTS ARND 10 DEGREES. HAVE OPTED
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NEAR
ZERO IN WC/SW MN WHERE CLR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW PACK
WILL LEAD TO LOWER TEMPS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAYS
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.

FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE BIG HIGHLIGHT FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH ERN PAC RIDGING AND NOAM TROUGHING MAKING A RETURN. YOUR
TYPICAL TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS STILL EXIST...BUT IN
GENERAL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY AND DISORGANIZED
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL START TAKING SHAPE...WITH
A STRONGER WAVE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
MON/TUE AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS ONE OF TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST/SOUTH WITH WHERE THIS DEEPENING OCCURS.

MAIN THING EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS THAT THE BANK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SPLAYED OUT ACROSS BOTH THE
CANADIAN AND U.S. HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIS
VALLEY AS THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO WRN MN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO KEPT BOTH DAYS DRY. FRIDAY..THE PRIMARY
UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE GOING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN ADDITION...WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE THERE
IS AROUND THE 290K SFC IS CENTERED IN NE MN...WHERE THE 17.15 SREF
DOES SHOW SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT
SATURDAY DRY AS WELL...THOUGH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA
COULD LEAD TO THE GENERATION OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH WITH NO DEEP
MOISTURE IT WOULD BE DRIZZLE.

HAVE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THIS IS WHEN WE START SEEING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STARTING
TO WORK UP INTO THE AREA...THOUGH UPPER FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE
LACKING...SO THIS WOULD BE LIGHT AT BEST.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK BETTER STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING ALL THE WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE WITH A SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MN ON MONDAY. IT STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF I-94
TO LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION THIS LOW
GOES THROUGH...IT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IMPACTING
THE AREA MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IT IS SLOWEST...THE ECMWF IS ALSO
THE MOST BULLISH WITH QPF...WITH A HEALTHY SWATH OF AROUND 0.75"
ROTATING AROUND SE MN...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW...OF COURSE THIS FALLS OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AS NW WINDS START CRANKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC LOW DIPPING UNDER 970 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...STILL WAY TO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS/IMPACTS...BUT GIVEN INCREASED TRAVEL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. WILL ALSO
ADD A MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NEXT WEEK IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED FLURRIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FORCING REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SINCE
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

KMSP...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AS SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW FLURRIES.
MOST LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 171735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED FLURRIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FORCING REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SINCE
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

KMSP...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AS SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW FLURRIES.
MOST LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 171735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED FLURRIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FORCING REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SINCE
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

KMSP...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AS SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH WITH A FEW FLURRIES.
MOST LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...ADL








000
FXUS63 KMPX 171205
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
WI. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN FOR MVFR CIGS
AND FLURRIES TO PERSIST IN WESTERN WI AND POSSIBLY EASTERN MN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY SCATTER OUT
BY TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
AS DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

KMSP...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FLURRIES. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS N LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 171205
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
WI. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN FOR MVFR CIGS
AND FLURRIES TO PERSIST IN WESTERN WI AND POSSIBLY EASTERN MN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY SCATTER OUT
BY TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
AS DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

KMSP...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FLURRIES. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS N LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...ADL








000
FXUS63 KMPX 170948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE THAT GENERATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
HAS PROVEN A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN NOTABLE SCATTERING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MUCH MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. 925-850MB MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SPOKES
OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PIVOT INTO KAXN/KRWF AND BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM KSTC/KMSP EASTWARD
TO KRNH AND KEAU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. FURTHER SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SETTLING AROUND
5 KTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE LOW/MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT...WITH
ATTENDANT/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR BECOME
PREVALENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE LOW DECK
SCOURING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS













000
FXUS63 KMPX 170948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE THAT GENERATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
HAS PROVEN A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN NOTABLE SCATTERING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MUCH MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. 925-850MB MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SPOKES
OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PIVOT INTO KAXN/KRWF AND BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM KSTC/KMSP EASTWARD
TO KRNH AND KEAU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. FURTHER SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SETTLING AROUND
5 KTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE LOW/MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT...WITH
ATTENDANT/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR BECOME
PREVALENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE LOW DECK
SCOURING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS












000
FXUS63 KMPX 170948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE THAT GENERATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
HAS PROVEN A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN NOTABLE SCATTERING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MUCH MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. 925-850MB MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SPOKES
OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PIVOT INTO KAXN/KRWF AND BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM KSTC/KMSP EASTWARD
TO KRNH AND KEAU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. FURTHER SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SETTLING AROUND
5 KTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE LOW/MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT...WITH
ATTENDANT/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR BECOME
PREVALENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE LOW DECK
SCOURING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS












000
FXUS63 KMPX 170948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER /AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS/ AND THE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS OBSERVED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FA...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WITH A SOLID CLEARING LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST CLOUD...TO NEAR NEW RICHMOND WISCONSIN...WITH
CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HENCE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS FURTHER
NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THERE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN /NORTH OF
CHICAGO/ TODAY AND THE STRATUS IN NORTHEASTERN MN WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS JUST TIMING IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN MN
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE HAS PROVEN IT CAN SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FINE
LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH A DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 3 DEGREES BEING ALL THAT MAY BE REQUIRED TO SEE THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. SO...AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH...SCATTERING SHOULD
OCCUR.  SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WHILE GLENWOOD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES MAY BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE THIS MORNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OR
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WE`RE ALREADY SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP DUE
TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST. THIS TREND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.  WITH THE CALM
WINDS...SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN PREDICTING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI IN REGARDS TO TEMPS BECAUSE CLOUDS MAY STILL LINGER.  NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL OF SATURATION
UNDER 3K FEET...BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES DO CLEAR...LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM IS CHOCK FULL OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLIPPER EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MORPHING A LARGE AND STRONG
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE WEEK...THINK THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE TO SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH USUALLY TOO MOIST...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. QPF
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTABLE ON ALL GLOBAL MODELS INTO SATURDAY.
THINK POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED.

ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG 590+ DAM MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. A PRETTY CHAOTIC AND DISCOMBOBULATED SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
NOT BRING MUCH MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH GETS MORE INTERESTING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AS IT INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THE RESULT IS A CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY
AND A LOT OF MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK -
FUELING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OR EAST COAST NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE THAT GENERATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
HAS PROVEN A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN NOTABLE SCATTERING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MUCH MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. 925-850MB MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SPOKES
OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PIVOT INTO KAXN/KRWF AND BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM KSTC/KMSP EASTWARD
TO KRNH AND KEAU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. FURTHER SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SETTLING AROUND
5 KTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE LOW/MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT...WITH
ATTENDANT/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR BECOME
PREVALENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE LOW DECK
SCOURING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS













000
FXUS63 KMPX 170452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06A AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTN...WILL SLOWLY ROTATE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO CONTINUE
CHC/S OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NE 2/3 OF MPX CWA TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE TO THE NE ACROSS WC WI AND NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HOLD THRU
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. FURTHER TO THE
SW ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. IT MAY EVEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO SW/SC MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AM
LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO SLIGHT
CAA AND CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BLW 2K. EVEN IF WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NOT COMING
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE. THERE WAS
CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS WEEK...BUT RH TIME
HEIGHTS OFF THE 16.12 NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOW LOW STRATUS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR CLOUDS IS HOW MUCH CAN
WE SCOUR THEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT ONCE WE HIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CUTTING OFF THE MECHANICAL MIXING
PROCESS. AS THAT IS HAPPENING WE WILL BE SEEING MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS MEANS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...WE GET BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A RATHER WAVY PATTERN SETTING UP...WHICH WILL BRING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BACK...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MID/UPPER CLOUDS MAY SPOIL THE PARTY EVEN IF WE LOSE
THE STRATUS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE PARTS OF THE
AREA THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD CAME A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
WELL. BESIDE THAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MID-WEEK SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL FINALLY START GETTING INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL OK /IT IS A SLOW MOVER/. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVES
LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...NOT LOOKING TO DO MUCH MORE
THAN LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR JUST PLAIN CLOUDY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHING INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NOAM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY/TUESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SASK/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY THAT WORKS ACROSS MN MONDAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TODAY IS BOTH MODELS SHIFTED THIS LOW
SOUTH SOME. HOWEVER...THEY DID NOT SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE
THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP...WITH BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN
BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE THAT GENERATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
HAS PROVEN A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN NOTABLE SCATTERING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MUCH MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. 925-850MB MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SPOKES
OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PIVOT INTO KAXN/KRWF AND BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM KSTC/KMSP EASTWARD
TO KRNH AND KEAU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. FURTHER SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SETTLING AROUND
5 KTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE LOW/MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT...WITH
ATTENDANT/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR BECOME
PREVALENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE LOW DECK
SCOURING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 170452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06A AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTN...WILL SLOWLY ROTATE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO CONTINUE
CHC/S OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NE 2/3 OF MPX CWA TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE TO THE NE ACROSS WC WI AND NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HOLD THRU
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. FURTHER TO THE
SW ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. IT MAY EVEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO SW/SC MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AM
LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO SLIGHT
CAA AND CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BLW 2K. EVEN IF WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NOT COMING
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE. THERE WAS
CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS WEEK...BUT RH TIME
HEIGHTS OFF THE 16.12 NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOW LOW STRATUS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR CLOUDS IS HOW MUCH CAN
WE SCOUR THEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT ONCE WE HIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CUTTING OFF THE MECHANICAL MIXING
PROCESS. AS THAT IS HAPPENING WE WILL BE SEEING MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS MEANS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...WE GET BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A RATHER WAVY PATTERN SETTING UP...WHICH WILL BRING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BACK...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MID/UPPER CLOUDS MAY SPOIL THE PARTY EVEN IF WE LOSE
THE STRATUS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE PARTS OF THE
AREA THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD CAME A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
WELL. BESIDE THAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MID-WEEK SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL FINALLY START GETTING INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL OK /IT IS A SLOW MOVER/. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVES
LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...NOT LOOKING TO DO MUCH MORE
THAN LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR JUST PLAIN CLOUDY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHING INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NOAM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY/TUESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SASK/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY THAT WORKS ACROSS MN MONDAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TODAY IS BOTH MODELS SHIFTED THIS LOW
SOUTH SOME. HOWEVER...THEY DID NOT SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE
THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP...WITH BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN
BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE THAT GENERATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
HAS PROVEN A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN NOTABLE SCATTERING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MUCH MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. 925-850MB MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SPOKES
OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PIVOT INTO KAXN/KRWF AND BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM KSTC/KMSP EASTWARD
TO KRNH AND KEAU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. FURTHER SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SETTLING AROUND
5 KTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE LOW/MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT...WITH
ATTENDANT/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR BECOME
PREVALENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE LOW DECK
SCOURING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS









000
FXUS63 KMPX 170452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06A AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTN...WILL SLOWLY ROTATE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO CONTINUE
CHC/S OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NE 2/3 OF MPX CWA TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE TO THE NE ACROSS WC WI AND NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HOLD THRU
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. FURTHER TO THE
SW ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. IT MAY EVEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO SW/SC MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AM
LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO SLIGHT
CAA AND CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BLW 2K. EVEN IF WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NOT COMING
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE. THERE WAS
CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS WEEK...BUT RH TIME
HEIGHTS OFF THE 16.12 NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOW LOW STRATUS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR CLOUDS IS HOW MUCH CAN
WE SCOUR THEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT ONCE WE HIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CUTTING OFF THE MECHANICAL MIXING
PROCESS. AS THAT IS HAPPENING WE WILL BE SEEING MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS MEANS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...WE GET BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A RATHER WAVY PATTERN SETTING UP...WHICH WILL BRING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BACK...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MID/UPPER CLOUDS MAY SPOIL THE PARTY EVEN IF WE LOSE
THE STRATUS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE PARTS OF THE
AREA THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD CAME A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
WELL. BESIDE THAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MID-WEEK SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL FINALLY START GETTING INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL OK /IT IS A SLOW MOVER/. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVES
LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...NOT LOOKING TO DO MUCH MORE
THAN LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR JUST PLAIN CLOUDY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHING INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NOAM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY/TUESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SASK/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY THAT WORKS ACROSS MN MONDAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TODAY IS BOTH MODELS SHIFTED THIS LOW
SOUTH SOME. HOWEVER...THEY DID NOT SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE
THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP...WITH BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN
BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE THAT GENERATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
HAS PROVEN A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN NOTABLE SCATTERING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MUCH MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. 925-850MB MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SPOKES
OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PIVOT INTO KAXN/KRWF AND BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM KSTC/KMSP EASTWARD
TO KRNH AND KEAU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. FURTHER SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SETTLING AROUND
5 KTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE LOW/MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT...WITH
ATTENDANT/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE VFR BECOME
PREVALENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE LOW DECK
SCOURING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 162353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTN...WILL SLOWLY ROTATE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO CONTINUE
CHC/S OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NE 2/3 OF MPX CWA TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE TO THE NE ACROSS WC WI AND NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HOLD THRU
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. FURTHER TO THE
SW ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. IT MAY EVEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO SW/SC MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AM
LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO SLIGHT
CAA AND CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BLW 2K. EVEN IF WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NOT COMING
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE. THERE WAS
CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS WEEK...BUT RH TIME
HEIGHTS OFF THE 16.12 NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOW LOW STRATUS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR CLOUDS IS HOW MUCH CAN
WE SCOUR THEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT ONCE WE HIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CUTTING OFF THE MECHANICAL MIXING
PROCESS. AS THAT IS HAPPENING WE WILL BE SEEING MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS MEANS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...WE GET BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A RATHER WAVY PATTERN SETTING UP...WHICH WILL BRING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BACK...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MID/UPPER CLOUDS MAY SPOIL THE PARTY EVEN IF WE LOSE
THE STRATUS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE PARTS OF THE
AREA THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD CAME A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
WELL. BESIDE THAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MID-WEEK SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL FINALLY START GETTING INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL OK /IT IS A SLOW MOVER/. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVES
LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...NOT LOOKING TO DO MUCH MORE
THAN LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR JUST PLAIN CLOUDY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHING INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NOAM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY/TUESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SASK/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY THAT WORKS ACROSS MN MONDAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TODAY IS BOTH MODELS SHIFTED THIS LOW
SOUTH SOME. HOWEVER...THEY DID NOT SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE
THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP...WITH BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN
BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DESPITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK...OVERALL MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL FUEL CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KMSP-KRNH-KEAU. VISIBILITIES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3SM-5SM WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERN SITES
/KAXN-KRWF/ SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES ACHIEVE VFR CIGS. NORTHWEST WINDS
DECREASE BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SETTLE IN
AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
PREVALENT CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY PRIOR
TO 03Z...THEN VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE OVC MVFR DECK AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SCATTERING AFTER 22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 162353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTN...WILL SLOWLY ROTATE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO CONTINUE
CHC/S OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NE 2/3 OF MPX CWA TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE TO THE NE ACROSS WC WI AND NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HOLD THRU
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. FURTHER TO THE
SW ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. IT MAY EVEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO SW/SC MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AM
LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO SLIGHT
CAA AND CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BLW 2K. EVEN IF WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NOT COMING
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE. THERE WAS
CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS WEEK...BUT RH TIME
HEIGHTS OFF THE 16.12 NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOW LOW STRATUS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR CLOUDS IS HOW MUCH CAN
WE SCOUR THEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT ONCE WE HIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CUTTING OFF THE MECHANICAL MIXING
PROCESS. AS THAT IS HAPPENING WE WILL BE SEEING MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS MEANS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...WE GET BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A RATHER WAVY PATTERN SETTING UP...WHICH WILL BRING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BACK...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MID/UPPER CLOUDS MAY SPOIL THE PARTY EVEN IF WE LOSE
THE STRATUS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE PARTS OF THE
AREA THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD CAME A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
WELL. BESIDE THAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MID-WEEK SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL FINALLY START GETTING INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL OK /IT IS A SLOW MOVER/. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVES
LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...NOT LOOKING TO DO MUCH MORE
THAN LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR JUST PLAIN CLOUDY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHING INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NOAM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY/TUESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SASK/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY THAT WORKS ACROSS MN MONDAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TODAY IS BOTH MODELS SHIFTED THIS LOW
SOUTH SOME. HOWEVER...THEY DID NOT SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE
THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP...WITH BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN
BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DESPITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK...OVERALL MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL FUEL CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KMSP-KRNH-KEAU. VISIBILITIES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3SM-5SM WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERN SITES
/KAXN-KRWF/ SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES ACHIEVE VFR CIGS. NORTHWEST WINDS
DECREASE BELOW 10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SETTLE IN
AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...
PREVALENT CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY PRIOR
TO 03Z...THEN VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE OVC MVFR DECK AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SCATTERING AFTER 22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 162104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTN...WILL SLOWLY ROTATE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO CONTINUE
CHC/S OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NE 2/3 OF MPX CWA TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE TO THE NE ACROSS WC WI AND NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HOLD THRU
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. FURTHER TO THE
SW ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. IT MAY EVEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO SW/SC MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AM
LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO SLIGHT
CAA AND CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BLW 2K. EVEN IF WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NOT COMING
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE. THERE WAS
CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS WEEK...BUT RH TIME
HEIGHTS OFF THE 16.12 NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOW LOW STRATUS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR CLOUDS IS HOW MUCH CAN
WE SCOUR THEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT ONCE WE HIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CUTTING OFF THE MECHANICAL MIXING
PROCESS. AS THAT IS HAPPENING WE WILL BE SEEING MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS MEANS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...WE GET BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A RATHER WAVY PATTERN SETTING UP...WHICH WILL BRING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BACK...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MID/UPPER CLOUDS MAY SPOIL THE PARTY EVEN IF WE LOSE
THE STRATUS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE PARTS OF THE
AREA THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD CAME A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
WELL. BESIDE THAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MID-WEEK SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL FINALLY START GETTING INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL OK /IT IS A SLOW MOVER/. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVES
LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...NOT LOOKING TO DO MUCH MORE
THAN LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR JUST PLAIN CLOUDY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHING INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NOAM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY/TUESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SASK/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY THAT WORKS ACROSS MN MONDAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TODAY IS BOTH MODELS SHIFTED THIS LOW
SOUTH SOME. HOWEVER...THEY DID NOT SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE
THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP...WITH BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN
BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MODERATELY CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTD -SN WITH VSBYS TEMPORARILY
DROPPING TO IFR. HOWEVER...MORE CONFIDENT IN MVFR/VFR VSBYS WITH
-SN DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX UP TO HIGH END
MVFR DURING THE AFTN...MAYBE TEMPORARILY GOING TO VFR AT TIMES IN
MPX SW CWA. OVERALL THE TREND IS TO CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF/KAXN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRTWV
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NC MN WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE AND DIVE TO THE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL WI BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL
-SN...WITH THE BEST CHC/S ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WC WI...OR NORTH OF
I-94. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WHEN THE CLDS BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ENDING THE -SN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE AFTN AND GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 25
KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN FROM THE NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 1.7K THRU THE AFTN.
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTION TO VSBY WILL OCCUR BUT SHOULD HOLD ABV 5SM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS DROPPING BLW 1.7K TONIGHT ALONG WITH
CHC/S OF -SN CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT THE -SN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT ENDING THE CHC AFT 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE NEXT 30 HRS...BUT DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED AFTN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 162104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTN...WILL SLOWLY ROTATE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO CONTINUE
CHC/S OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NE 2/3 OF MPX CWA TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE TO THE NE ACROSS WC WI AND NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HOLD THRU
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. FURTHER TO THE
SW ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. IT MAY EVEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO SW/SC MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AM
LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO SLIGHT
CAA AND CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BLW 2K. EVEN IF WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NOT COMING
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE. THERE WAS
CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS WEEK...BUT RH TIME
HEIGHTS OFF THE 16.12 NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOW LOW STRATUS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR CLOUDS IS HOW MUCH CAN
WE SCOUR THEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT ONCE WE HIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CUTTING OFF THE MECHANICAL MIXING
PROCESS. AS THAT IS HAPPENING WE WILL BE SEEING MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS MEANS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...WE GET BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A RATHER WAVY PATTERN SETTING UP...WHICH WILL BRING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BACK...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MID/UPPER CLOUDS MAY SPOIL THE PARTY EVEN IF WE LOSE
THE STRATUS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE PARTS OF THE
AREA THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD CAME A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
WELL. BESIDE THAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MID-WEEK SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL FINALLY START GETTING INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL OK /IT IS A SLOW MOVER/. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY RETURNING BY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVES
LOOK RATHER DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...NOT LOOKING TO DO MUCH MORE
THAN LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR JUST PLAIN CLOUDY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER FOR THE MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHING INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NOAM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY/TUESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SASK/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY THAT WORKS ACROSS MN MONDAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TODAY IS BOTH MODELS SHIFTED THIS LOW
SOUTH SOME. HOWEVER...THEY DID NOT SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE
THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP...WITH BOTH MODELS STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN
BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING EVERYTHING OVER TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MODERATELY CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTD -SN WITH VSBYS TEMPORARILY
DROPPING TO IFR. HOWEVER...MORE CONFIDENT IN MVFR/VFR VSBYS WITH
-SN DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX UP TO HIGH END
MVFR DURING THE AFTN...MAYBE TEMPORARILY GOING TO VFR AT TIMES IN
MPX SW CWA. OVERALL THE TREND IS TO CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF/KAXN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRTWV
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NC MN WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE AND DIVE TO THE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL WI BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL
-SN...WITH THE BEST CHC/S ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WC WI...OR NORTH OF
I-94. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WHEN THE CLDS BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ENDING THE -SN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE AFTN AND GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 25
KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN FROM THE NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 1.7K THRU THE AFTN.
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTION TO VSBY WILL OCCUR BUT SHOULD HOLD ABV 5SM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS DROPPING BLW 1.7K TONIGHT ALONG WITH
CHC/S OF -SN CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT THE -SN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT ENDING THE CHC AFT 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE NEXT 30 HRS...BUT DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED AFTN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 161726
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1126 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW IS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING IN MINNESOTA...TAPERING
TO FLURRIES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT THE NOON HOUR. BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING - THEN LOOK FOR A NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE TODAY. ICY OR SNOWY ROADS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING IF
THEY HAVEN`T BEEN TREATED...ESPECIALLY IN MINNESOTA.

THERE IS ABOUT A 16MB MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO GO ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...A
CHANGE FROM THE FOG AND DRIZZLE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS YIELDING GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-40MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE
THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS IN THE DAKOTAS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW...ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN MN UNTIL THE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING UPPER LOW
CENTER AND VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON WE HAVE MAINTAINED OCCASIONAL VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM RELATIVE TO THE RECENT
WARM STRETCH...BUT THESE TEMPS ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH CLIMATE NORMAL
FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO REAL CONCERNS WEATHER-WISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH FROM
CANADA WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH A POCKET OF
LOCALLY COOL AIR POSITIONED OVERHEAD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY
FOR MID DECEMBER.  THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THE
TRUE ARCTIC REGION THANKS TO A NORTHERN JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
THE BAGGY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...BUT STILL LINGER IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS
WAVE...CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING A SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS.  THE GFS...WHICH WAS THE NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA...HAS NOW SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH
AROUND NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  BEING A
WEEK AWAY HOWEVER...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MODERATELY CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTD -SN WITH VSBYS TEMPORARILY
DROPPING TO IFR. HOWEVER...MORE CONFIDENT IN MVFR/VFR VSBYS WITH
-SN DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX UP TO HIGH END
MVFR DURING THE AFTN...MAYBE TEMPORARILY GOING TO VFR AT TIMES IN
MPX SW CWA. OVERALL THE TREND IS TO CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF/KAXN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRTWV
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NC MN WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE AND DIVE TO THE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL WI BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL
-SN...WITH THE BEST CHC/S ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WC WI...OR NORTH OF
I-94. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WHEN THE CLDS BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ENDING THE -SN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE AFTN AND GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 25
KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN FROM THE NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 1.7K THRU THE AFTN.
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTION TO VSBY WILL OCCUR BUT SHOULD HOLD ABV 5SM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS DROPPING BLW 1.7K TONIGHT ALONG WITH
CHC/S OF -SN CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT THE -SN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT ENDING THE CHC AFT 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE NEXT 30 HRS...BUT DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED AFTN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 161726
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1126 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW IS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING IN MINNESOTA...TAPERING
TO FLURRIES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT THE NOON HOUR. BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING - THEN LOOK FOR A NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE TODAY. ICY OR SNOWY ROADS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING IF
THEY HAVEN`T BEEN TREATED...ESPECIALLY IN MINNESOTA.

THERE IS ABOUT A 16MB MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO GO ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...A
CHANGE FROM THE FOG AND DRIZZLE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS YIELDING GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-40MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE
THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS IN THE DAKOTAS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW...ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN MN UNTIL THE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING UPPER LOW
CENTER AND VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON WE HAVE MAINTAINED OCCASIONAL VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM RELATIVE TO THE RECENT
WARM STRETCH...BUT THESE TEMPS ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH CLIMATE NORMAL
FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO REAL CONCERNS WEATHER-WISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH FROM
CANADA WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH A POCKET OF
LOCALLY COOL AIR POSITIONED OVERHEAD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY
FOR MID DECEMBER.  THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THE
TRUE ARCTIC REGION THANKS TO A NORTHERN JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
THE BAGGY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...BUT STILL LINGER IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS
WAVE...CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING A SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS.  THE GFS...WHICH WAS THE NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA...HAS NOW SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH
AROUND NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  BEING A
WEEK AWAY HOWEVER...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MODERATELY CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTD -SN WITH VSBYS TEMPORARILY
DROPPING TO IFR. HOWEVER...MORE CONFIDENT IN MVFR/VFR VSBYS WITH
-SN DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX UP TO HIGH END
MVFR DURING THE AFTN...MAYBE TEMPORARILY GOING TO VFR AT TIMES IN
MPX SW CWA. OVERALL THE TREND IS TO CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF/KAXN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRTWV
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NC MN WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE AND DIVE TO THE E-SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL WI BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL
-SN...WITH THE BEST CHC/S ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WC WI...OR NORTH OF
I-94. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WHEN THE CLDS BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ENDING THE -SN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE AFTN AND GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 25
KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN FROM THE NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 1.7K THRU THE AFTN.
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTION TO VSBY WILL OCCUR BUT SHOULD HOLD ABV 5SM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS DROPPING BLW 1.7K TONIGHT ALONG WITH
CHC/S OF -SN CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT THE -SN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT ENDING THE CHC AFT 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NNW/NW DURING THE NEXT 30 HRS...BUT DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED AFTN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 161300
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW IS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING IN MINNESOTA...TAPERING
TO FLURRIES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT THE NOON HOUR. BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING - THEN LOOK FOR A NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE TODAY. ICY OR SNOWY ROADS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING IF
THEY HAVEN`T BEEN TREATED...ESPECIALLY IN MINNESOTA.

THERE IS ABOUT A 16MB MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO GO ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...A
CHANGE FROM THE FOG AND DRIZZLE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS YIELDING GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-40MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE
THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS IN THE DAKOTAS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW...ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN MN UNTIL THE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING UPPER LOW
CENTER AND VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON WE HAVE MAINTAINED OCCASIONAL VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM RELATIVE TO THE RECENT
WARM STRETCH...BUT THESE TEMPS ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH CLIMATE NORMAL
FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO REAL CONCERNS WEATHER-WISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH FROM
CANADA WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH A POCKET OF
LOCALLY COOL AIR POSITIONED OVERHEAD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY
FOR MID DECEMBER.  THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THE
TRUE ARCTIC REGION THANKS TO A NORTHERN JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
THE BAGGY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...BUT STILL LINGER IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS
WAVE...CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING A SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS.  THE GFS...WHICH WAS THE NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA...HAS NOW SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH
AROUND NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  BEING A
WEEK AWAY HOWEVER...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME CLEARING TRYING
TO WORK INTO FAR WESTERN MN THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. KRWF SHOULD CONTINUE TO REPORT HAZE/SNOW IN THE OBSERVATION
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HARD TO FIND MUCH EVIDENCE TO CLEAR THE STRATUS OUT
BEFORE TOMORROW. IN FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

EVEN THOUGH THE LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...IT IS TOUGH TO
FIND A REASON TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LIFTING OF THE CLOUD BASES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. WE DIDN`T INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAF JUST YET...BECAUSE WE DON`T HAVE A GREAT IDEA OF
THE TIMING...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WE
DON`T EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT AT SOME POINT WE SHOULD SHAKE
OUT SOME FLAKES LATE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 161300
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW IS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING IN MINNESOTA...TAPERING
TO FLURRIES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT THE NOON HOUR. BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING - THEN LOOK FOR A NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE TODAY. ICY OR SNOWY ROADS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING IF
THEY HAVEN`T BEEN TREATED...ESPECIALLY IN MINNESOTA.

THERE IS ABOUT A 16MB MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO GO ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...A
CHANGE FROM THE FOG AND DRIZZLE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS YIELDING GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-40MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE
THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS IN THE DAKOTAS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW...ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN MN UNTIL THE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING UPPER LOW
CENTER AND VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON WE HAVE MAINTAINED OCCASIONAL VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM RELATIVE TO THE RECENT
WARM STRETCH...BUT THESE TEMPS ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH CLIMATE NORMAL
FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO REAL CONCERNS WEATHER-WISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH FROM
CANADA WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH A POCKET OF
LOCALLY COOL AIR POSITIONED OVERHEAD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY
FOR MID DECEMBER.  THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THE
TRUE ARCTIC REGION THANKS TO A NORTHERN JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
THE BAGGY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...BUT STILL LINGER IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS
WAVE...CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING A SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS.  THE GFS...WHICH WAS THE NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA...HAS NOW SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH
AROUND NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  BEING A
WEEK AWAY HOWEVER...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME CLEARING TRYING
TO WORK INTO FAR WESTERN MN THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. KRWF SHOULD CONTINUE TO REPORT HAZE/SNOW IN THE OBSERVATION
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HARD TO FIND MUCH EVIDENCE TO CLEAR THE STRATUS OUT
BEFORE TOMORROW. IN FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

EVEN THOUGH THE LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...IT IS TOUGH TO
FIND A REASON TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LIFTING OF THE CLOUD BASES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. WE DIDN`T INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAF JUST YET...BECAUSE WE DON`T HAVE A GREAT IDEA OF
THE TIMING...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WE
DON`T EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT AT SOME POINT WE SHOULD SHAKE
OUT SOME FLAKES LATE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF









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