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000
FXUS63 KMPX 091210
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 091210
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 091210
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 090945
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER... WITH CEILINGS MVFR
OR VFR STICKING AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS CYCLONIC
FLOW WANES AND THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... AND IT
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK SSE OVER TIME. IN ADDITION... CEILINGS ARE VFR
OVER A GOOD PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... SO WE
SHOULD SEE LOCATIONS WORK INTO THAT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT IF THAT
TREND PERSISTS. AS A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS... DID ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT FASTER IMPROVEMENT AND BETTER
OVERALL CEILING CATEGORIES. FALLING SNOW HAS ENDED IN MOST
AREAS... AND WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST LONGEST... ALTHOUGH
EVEN WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING IT IS GENERALLY NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.

KMSP...MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK... AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
TREND TO VFR EVEN WHILE STILL BKN. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BEST
ESTIMATES... BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE TIMING ERRORS OF A FEW
HOURS SO UPDATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 090945
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER... WITH CEILINGS MVFR
OR VFR STICKING AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS CYCLONIC
FLOW WANES AND THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... AND IT
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK SSE OVER TIME. IN ADDITION... CEILINGS ARE VFR
OVER A GOOD PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... SO WE
SHOULD SEE LOCATIONS WORK INTO THAT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT IF THAT
TREND PERSISTS. AS A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS... DID ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT FASTER IMPROVEMENT AND BETTER
OVERALL CEILING CATEGORIES. FALLING SNOW HAS ENDED IN MOST
AREAS... AND WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST LONGEST... ALTHOUGH
EVEN WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING IT IS GENERALLY NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.

KMSP...MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK... AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
TREND TO VFR EVEN WHILE STILL BKN. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BEST
ESTIMATES... BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE TIMING ERRORS OF A FEW
HOURS SO UPDATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 090945
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER... WITH CEILINGS MVFR
OR VFR STICKING AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS CYCLONIC
FLOW WANES AND THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... AND IT
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK SSE OVER TIME. IN ADDITION... CEILINGS ARE VFR
OVER A GOOD PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... SO WE
SHOULD SEE LOCATIONS WORK INTO THAT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT IF THAT
TREND PERSISTS. AS A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS... DID ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT FASTER IMPROVEMENT AND BETTER
OVERALL CEILING CATEGORIES. FALLING SNOW HAS ENDED IN MOST
AREAS... AND WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST LONGEST... ALTHOUGH
EVEN WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING IT IS GENERALLY NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.

KMSP...MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK... AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
TREND TO VFR EVEN WHILE STILL BKN. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BEST
ESTIMATES... BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE TIMING ERRORS OF A FEW
HOURS SO UPDATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 090347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
947 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN
SINCE NOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAD OCCURRED
BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES AND FAIRMONT. SEVERAL
HIGHWAYS IN SW MN AND I-90 WERE CLOSED THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS. WEB
CAMS IN THESE AREA DOES SHOW IMPROVEMENT...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BY THE EVENING...THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ALTHOUGH "BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS
MAY NOT BE REALIZED...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. I
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH
THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES SLOWLY BECOMING CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAR EC MN/WC WI DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY TEMPS WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN THEME IN THE LONG TERM IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
DOWNWARD TREND IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED DURING
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR. AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE DAYS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE WEATHER FRONT...THERE ARE THREE SNOW EVENTS DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE THIRD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WE ENDED UP ADDING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF CAME FURTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE
OF MN AND WAS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF
THE GFS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ONE INCH FROM
MADISON TO FAIRMONT.

THE SECOND WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. IT IS ON ABOUT THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE WEDNESDAY
ONE. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS. PARTS
OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD SWITCH RATHER QUICKLY TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAKER INCOMING WAVE THAT KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER ON
BACKING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST AS IT BRINGS A CLOSED LOW DOWN
ACROSS MN AND IA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WITH THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...WE
OPTED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MN CWA WITH 25-30
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WI CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER... WITH CEILINGS MVFR
OR VFR STICKING AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS CYCLONIC
FLOW WANES AND THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... AND IT
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK SSE OVER TIME. IN ADDITION... CEILINGS ARE VFR
OVER A GOOD PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... SO WE
SHOULD SEE LOCATIONS WORK INTO THAT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT IF THAT
TREND PERSISTS. AS A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS... DID ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT FASTER IMPROVEMENT AND BETTER
OVERALL CEILING CATEGORIES. FALLING SNOW HAS ENDED IN MOST
AREAS... AND WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST LONGEST... ALTHOUGH
EVEN WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING IT IS GENERALLY NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.

KMSP...MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK... AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
TREND TO VFR EVEN WHILE STILL BKN. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BEST
ESTIMATES... BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE TIMING ERRORS OF A FEW
HOURS SO UPDATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 090026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN
SINCE NOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAD OCCURRED
BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES AND FAIRMONT. SEVERAL
HIGHWAYS IN SW MN AND I-90 WERE CLOSED THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS. WEB
CAMS IN THESE AREA DOES SHOW IMPROVEMENT...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BY THE EVENING...THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ALTHOUGH "BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS
MAY NOT BE REALIZED...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. I
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH
THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES SLOWLY BECOMING CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAR EC MN/WC WI DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY TEMPS WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN THEME IN THE LONG TERM IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
DOWNWARD TREND IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED DURING
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR. AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE DAYS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE WEATHER FRONT...THERE ARE THREE SNOW EVENTS DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE THIRD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WE ENDED UP ADDING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF CAME FURTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE
OF MN AND WAS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF
THE GFS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ONE INCH FROM
MADISON TO FAIRMONT.

THE SECOND WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. IT IS ON ABOUT THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE WEDNESDAY
ONE. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS. PARTS
OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD SWITCH RATHER QUICKLY TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAKER INCOMING WAVE THAT KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER ON
BACKING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST AS IT BRINGS A CLOSED LOW DOWN
ACROSS MN AND IA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WITH THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...WE
OPTED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MN CWA WITH 25-30
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WI CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WANING VISIBLE AND ARRIVING FOG IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CYCLONIC
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PERSISTING... AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINING... CEILING SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE YET.
THINGS LOOK TO SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST... BUT THE
TIMING OF THAT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CHOSE TO GO THE
SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE... WHICH IS ACTUALLY IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LAMP. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS... AND MAINLY IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
WITH BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE DECREASE... BUT DID
INCLUDE SOME FOR A WHILE YET... AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND THINGS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GO.

KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH HOW LONG CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST... AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABOVE OR BELOW 3K FT AGL. WITH
THE INVERSION LOWERING AND THE GENERALLY EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
TRENDS... DID BRING THINGS BACK INTO MVFR... AND DIDN/T ALLOW
THINGS TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM TRENDS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT CEILINGS STICKING AROUND FOR A WHILE YET... SO
FEEL REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN THAT EXPECTATION THROUGH AT LEAST
06-09Z. WE COULD SEE SOME FALLING SNOW WORK BACK IN LATER THIS
EVENING... IN WHICH CASE SOME AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 082058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN
SINCE NOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAD OCCURRED
BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES AND FAIRMONT. SEVERAL
HIGHWAYS IN SW MN AND I-90 WERE CLOSED THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS. WEB
CAMS IN THESE AREA DOES SHOW IMPROVEMENT...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BY THE EVENING...THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ALTHOUGH "BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS
MAY NOT BE REALIZED...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. I
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH
THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES SLOWLY BECOMING CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAR EC MN/WC WI DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY TEMPS WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN THEME IN THE LONG TERM IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
DOWNWARD TREND IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED DURING
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR. AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE DAYS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE WEATHER FRONT...THERE ARE THREE SNOW EVENTS DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE THIRD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WE ENDED UP ADDING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF CAME FURTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE
OF MN AND WAS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF
THE GFS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ONE INCH FROM
MADISON TO FAIRMONT.

THE SECOND WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. IT IS ON ABOUT THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE WEDNESDAY
ONE. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS. PARTS
OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD SWITCH RATHER QUICKLY TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAKER INCOMING WAVE THAT KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER ON
BACKING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST AS IT BRINGS A CLOSED LOW DOWN
ACROSS MN AND IA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WITH THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...WE
OPTED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MN CWA WITH 25-30
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WI CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTED ONGOING -SHSN ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. IN
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE BLSN REGION WIDE...CAUSING VSBYS IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGE...WITH SOME VLIFR CONDS WHERE WIND SPEEDS GUST IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...THE ACCOMPANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.0K. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HRS...BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

KMSP...

ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THRU THE
AFTN...WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 2-4SM. THESE MVFR CIGS
/AOA 2.0K/ WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE STRONGEST 24-28 KTS...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND N...BCMG W 5KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>058-064>069-075>077-083>085-092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ073-074-082-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 081732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1132 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTED ONGOING -SHSN ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. IN
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE BLSN REGION WIDE...CAUSING VSBYS IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGE...WITH SOME VLIFR CONDS WHERE WIND SPEEDS GUST IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...THE ACCOMPANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.0K. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HRS...BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

KMSP...

ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THRU THE
AFTN...WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 2-4SM. THESE MVFR CIGS
/AOA 2.0K/ WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE STRONGEST 24-28 KTS...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND N...BCMG W 5KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>058-064>069-075>077-084-085.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     049>053-059>063-070-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ083-
     092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ083-092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ073-074-082-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 081150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND NEAR 20KTS IN THE EASTERN SITE IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OBS HAVE BASES HIGHER THAN
MODEL OUTPUT. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS.

KMSP...

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. VISBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW
SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 081150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND NEAR 20KTS IN THE EASTERN SITE IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OBS HAVE BASES HIGHER THAN
MODEL OUTPUT. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS.

KMSP...

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. VISBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW
SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 081150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND NEAR 20KTS IN THE EASTERN SITE IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OBS HAVE BASES HIGHER THAN
MODEL OUTPUT. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS.

KMSP...

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. VISBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW
SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 081111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERAMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS
OR SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY.
KEPT CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK
AROUND LONGER THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 081111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERAMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS
OR SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY.
KEPT CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK
AROUND LONGER THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 081111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERAMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS
OR SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY.
KEPT CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK
AROUND LONGER THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 080356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
956 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMING OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS OR
SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW BECOMES MORE
OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY. KEPT CEILING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE... IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK AROUND LONGER
THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT WILL
BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 080356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
956 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMING OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS OR
SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW BECOMES MORE
OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY. KEPT CEILING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE... IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK AROUND LONGER
THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT WILL
BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 072335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMIMG OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER... WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE DEGREE OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WE/LL SEE. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH MOST
OF THE AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING... WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT BLSN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HOWEVER... TODAY/S
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MELTING COMBINED WITH THE QUICK-FREEZE THIS
EVENING COULD WORK TO PUT A CRUST ON THINGS AND LOCK THAT SNOW IN
PLACE... MEANING WE/LL BE DEPENDENT ON NEW SNOWFALL TO BLOW
AROUND. IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A WAITING GAME AT THIS POINT... AND
WE/LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CEILINGS LOOK FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH QUITE A BIT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. KEPT CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN FUTURE UPDATES.

KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. KEPT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST FOR NOW... BUT MAY NEED TO BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE
INCREASED WIND AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-
     050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
     059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 072335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMIMG OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER... WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE DEGREE OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WE/LL SEE. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH MOST
OF THE AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING... WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT BLSN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HOWEVER... TODAY/S
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MELTING COMBINED WITH THE QUICK-FREEZE THIS
EVENING COULD WORK TO PUT A CRUST ON THINGS AND LOCK THAT SNOW IN
PLACE... MEANING WE/LL BE DEPENDENT ON NEW SNOWFALL TO BLOW
AROUND. IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A WAITING GAME AT THIS POINT... AND
WE/LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CEILINGS LOOK FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH QUITE A BIT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. KEPT CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN FUTURE UPDATES.

KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. KEPT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST FOR NOW... BUT MAY NEED TO BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE
INCREASED WIND AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-
     050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
     059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 072029
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMIMG OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTN FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. TIMING MAYBE OFF AN HR OR
TWO...BUT WINDS PLUS -SN/-SHSN WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS WESTERN MN
AND INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z. MVFR VSBYS WILL DROP TO OCCASIONAL
IFR/LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR BY THE LATE AFTN THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS...AND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
35-45 KTS IN WESTERN MN. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR IN
EASTERN MN...WITH 20-25 KTS IN WC WI. LOW VSBYS IN -SN/BLSN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THRU MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CONDS
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTN
WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR BY 00Z. SCATTERED -SN/-SHSN/BLSN WILL
DEVELOP AFT 21Z...WITH -SN LIKELY BY 00Z. KEPT ONLY A SHORT TEMPO
PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH TRAFFIC CONCERNS...BUT IFR VSBYS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN -SN/BLSN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22-25
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. WOULD NOT EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS
UNTIL AFT 18Z MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-
     050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ054-056>058-
     064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 071735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTN FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. TIMING MAYBE OFF AN HR OR
TWO...BUT WINDS PLUS -SN/-SHSN WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS WESTERN MN
AND INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z. MVFR VSBYS WILL DROP TO OCCASIONAL
IFR/LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR BY THE LATE AFTN THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS...AND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
35-45 KTS IN WESTERN MN. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR IN
EASTERN MN...WITH 20-25 KTS IN WC WI. LOW VSBYS IN -SN/BLSN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THRU MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CONDS
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTN
WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR BY 00Z. SCATTERED -SN/-SHSN/BLSN WILL
DEVELOP AFT 21Z...WITH -SN LIKELY BY 00Z. KEPT ONLY A SHORT TEMPO
PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH TRAFFIC CONCERNS...BUT IFR VSBYS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN -SN/BLSN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22-25
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. WOULD NOT EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS
UNTIL AFT 18Z MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 071218
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS SN/BLSN MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SETTLE ON WNW BY LATE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO VEER TO NW
TONIGHT THRU TMRW WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCRS TO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE FOR THE MN TAF SITES...15-20 KT FOR THE WI TAF SITES...WITH
GUSTS INCRG TO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WITH AREAS OF -SN MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATER TDA...VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO THE 1-2SM RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND
SRN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ARND 21Z WHEN -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER WHEN MORE SOLID BANDS OF -SN MOVE THRU...
AND THESE BANDS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR PROLONGED
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDS FOR KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 071218
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS SN/BLSN MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SETTLE ON WNW BY LATE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO VEER TO NW
TONIGHT THRU TMRW WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCRS TO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE FOR THE MN TAF SITES...15-20 KT FOR THE WI TAF SITES...WITH
GUSTS INCRG TO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WITH AREAS OF -SN MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATER TDA...VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO THE 1-2SM RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND
SRN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ARND 21Z WHEN -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER WHEN MORE SOLID BANDS OF -SN MOVE THRU...
AND THESE BANDS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR PROLONGED
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDS FOR KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 071009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH
THAT TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070546
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THAT
TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070546
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THAT
TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 070546
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THAT
TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070307 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 070307 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070307 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070038 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070038 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 070038 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 062135
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MVFR AND -SHRA DEVELOP
IN WESTERN MN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
BLW 5K IN WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KSTC DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SFC TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SSW ARND 10-12 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST TOWARD
MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE IT. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABV THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 061728
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WAS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
GROUND BLIZZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...SEVERITY HINGES ON BOTH SNOWFALL AND THE SNOWPACK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IMPACTS WILL BE HIGH...IN THE FORM
OF CLOSED ROADS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. FOR THAT
REASON EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WATCH A FEW COUNTIES EAST.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WAS A
POTENT PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THIS OPEN WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRACK ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AND MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEYS. THESE TYPES OF SETUPS FAVOR BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING...STRONG WINDS...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON
THE SNOWPACK.

THE DETERRENTS FOR ACHIEVING A HIGH END BLIZZARD WITH THIS EVENT
ARE FEW. FIRST OF ALL...THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RAISE TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
SLIGHTLY MODIFY THE SNOWPACK...BUT OFTEN THE DEGREE OF MELTING IS
OVER ESTIMATED. FOR EXAMPLE...JANUARY 29 2008 SURFACE TEMPS WARMED
NEAR 40 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...YET AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WITH 40-50 MPH WINDS
AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPED. ALBERT LEA WAS LESS THAN 1/4
MI FOR 7 CONSECUTIVE HOURS AND I-90 WAS CLOSED. JANUARY 25 2010
TEMPS STARTED IN THE MID 30S ACROSS IOWA...BUT WINDS INCREASED
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...CLOSING MOST ROADS
ACROSS THE STATE.

ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE FACT THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
AS STRONG AS IN OTHER CASES...AND WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS OF 50+ KTS OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAY NOT TRULY BE
REALIZED. ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT WHEN THE HIGHER WINDS
ARE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY THE INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUNDING. WITH THAT SAID...GUSTS OF 40+ KTS SEEM VERY REALISTIC...
AND THE DURATION IS ALSO CONCERNING. FOR THE REASON...EXPECTED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH EASTWARD AND EXTENDED THE TIME TO 18Z MONDAY. IN
REALITY...COULD SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ANOTHER TIER EASTWARD OF
COUNTIES...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS SINCE THE EVENT
IS STILL OVER A COUPLE DAYS OUT.

THE TAKEAWAY IS THIS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST UTILITY
WHEN TRYING TO DIAGNOSE AND PREDICT A GROUND BLIZZARD. THE
SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW OVER 50+ KT GUSTS...BUT
THINK THAT A MORE REALISTIC VALUE WILL BE 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS. THIS
IS THE UPPER END WHEN COMPARED TO SOUNDINGS FROM PAST GROUND
BLIZZARDS. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FRESH SNOW FROM THE WINTER
STORM EARLIER THIS WEEK. ITS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE SNOWPACK WILL
MELT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH THESE EXPECTED WINDS...NOT TO
MENTION ADDITIONAL FALLING SNOW OF AN INCH OR TWO AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE SATURATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...A SIGNIFICANT GROUND BLIZZARD SHOULD
COME TO FRUITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUE- THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO A
CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...AND CHCS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT ATTM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MVFR AND -SHRA DEVELOP
IN WESTERN MN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
BLW 5K IN WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KSTC DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SFC TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SSW ARND 10-12 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST TOWARD
MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE IT. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABV THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-055.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ054-056>058-064>067-073>076-082>084-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 061728
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WAS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
GROUND BLIZZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...SEVERITY HINGES ON BOTH SNOWFALL AND THE SNOWPACK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IMPACTS WILL BE HIGH...IN THE FORM
OF CLOSED ROADS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. FOR THAT
REASON EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WATCH A FEW COUNTIES EAST.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WAS A
POTENT PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THIS OPEN WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRACK ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AND MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEYS. THESE TYPES OF SETUPS FAVOR BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING...STRONG WINDS...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON
THE SNOWPACK.

THE DETERRENTS FOR ACHIEVING A HIGH END BLIZZARD WITH THIS EVENT
ARE FEW. FIRST OF ALL...THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RAISE TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
SLIGHTLY MODIFY THE SNOWPACK...BUT OFTEN THE DEGREE OF MELTING IS
OVER ESTIMATED. FOR EXAMPLE...JANUARY 29 2008 SURFACE TEMPS WARMED
NEAR 40 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...YET AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WITH 40-50 MPH WINDS
AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPED. ALBERT LEA WAS LESS THAN 1/4
MI FOR 7 CONSECUTIVE HOURS AND I-90 WAS CLOSED. JANUARY 25 2010
TEMPS STARTED IN THE MID 30S ACROSS IOWA...BUT WINDS INCREASED
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...CLOSING MOST ROADS
ACROSS THE STATE.

ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE FACT THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
AS STRONG AS IN OTHER CASES...AND WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS OF 50+ KTS OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAY NOT TRULY BE
REALIZED. ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT WHEN THE HIGHER WINDS
ARE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY THE INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUNDING. WITH THAT SAID...GUSTS OF 40+ KTS SEEM VERY REALISTIC...
AND THE DURATION IS ALSO CONCERNING. FOR THE REASON...EXPECTED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH EASTWARD AND EXTENDED THE TIME TO 18Z MONDAY. IN
REALITY...COULD SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ANOTHER TIER EASTWARD OF
COUNTIES...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS SINCE THE EVENT
IS STILL OVER A COUPLE DAYS OUT.

THE TAKEAWAY IS THIS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST UTILITY
WHEN TRYING TO DIAGNOSE AND PREDICT A GROUND BLIZZARD. THE
SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW OVER 50+ KT GUSTS...BUT
THINK THAT A MORE REALISTIC VALUE WILL BE 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS. THIS
IS THE UPPER END WHEN COMPARED TO SOUNDINGS FROM PAST GROUND
BLIZZARDS. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FRESH SNOW FROM THE WINTER
STORM EARLIER THIS WEEK. ITS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE SNOWPACK WILL
MELT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH THESE EXPECTED WINDS...NOT TO
MENTION ADDITIONAL FALLING SNOW OF AN INCH OR TWO AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE SATURATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...A SIGNIFICANT GROUND BLIZZARD SHOULD
COME TO FRUITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUE- THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO A
CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...AND CHCS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT ATTM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MVFR AND -SHRA DEVELOP
IN WESTERN MN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
BLW 5K IN WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KSTC DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SFC TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SSW ARND 10-12 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST TOWARD
MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE IT. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABV THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-055.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ054-056>058-064>067-073>076-082>084-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 061728
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WAS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
GROUND BLIZZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...SEVERITY HINGES ON BOTH SNOWFALL AND THE SNOWPACK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IMPACTS WILL BE HIGH...IN THE FORM
OF CLOSED ROADS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. FOR THAT
REASON EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WATCH A FEW COUNTIES EAST.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WAS A
POTENT PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THIS OPEN WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRACK ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AND MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEYS. THESE TYPES OF SETUPS FAVOR BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING...STRONG WINDS...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON
THE SNOWPACK.

THE DETERRENTS FOR ACHIEVING A HIGH END BLIZZARD WITH THIS EVENT
ARE FEW. FIRST OF ALL...THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RAISE TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
SLIGHTLY MODIFY THE SNOWPACK...BUT OFTEN THE DEGREE OF MELTING IS
OVER ESTIMATED. FOR EXAMPLE...JANUARY 29 2008 SURFACE TEMPS WARMED
NEAR 40 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...YET AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WITH 40-50 MPH WINDS
AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPED. ALBERT LEA WAS LESS THAN 1/4
MI FOR 7 CONSECUTIVE HOURS AND I-90 WAS CLOSED. JANUARY 25 2010
TEMPS STARTED IN THE MID 30S ACROSS IOWA...BUT WINDS INCREASED
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...CLOSING MOST ROADS
ACROSS THE STATE.

ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE FACT THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
AS STRONG AS IN OTHER CASES...AND WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS OF 50+ KTS OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAY NOT TRULY BE
REALIZED. ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT WHEN THE HIGHER WINDS
ARE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY THE INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUNDING. WITH THAT SAID...GUSTS OF 40+ KTS SEEM VERY REALISTIC...
AND THE DURATION IS ALSO CONCERNING. FOR THE REASON...EXPECTED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH EASTWARD AND EXTENDED THE TIME TO 18Z MONDAY. IN
REALITY...COULD SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ANOTHER TIER EASTWARD OF
COUNTIES...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS SINCE THE EVENT
IS STILL OVER A COUPLE DAYS OUT.

THE TAKEAWAY IS THIS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST UTILITY
WHEN TRYING TO DIAGNOSE AND PREDICT A GROUND BLIZZARD. THE
SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW OVER 50+ KT GUSTS...BUT
THINK THAT A MORE REALISTIC VALUE WILL BE 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS. THIS
IS THE UPPER END WHEN COMPARED TO SOUNDINGS FROM PAST GROUND
BLIZZARDS. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FRESH SNOW FROM THE WINTER
STORM EARLIER THIS WEEK. ITS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE SNOWPACK WILL
MELT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH THESE EXPECTED WINDS...NOT TO
MENTION ADDITIONAL FALLING SNOW OF AN INCH OR TWO AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE SATURATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...A SIGNIFICANT GROUND BLIZZARD SHOULD
COME TO FRUITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUE- THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO A
CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...AND CHCS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT ATTM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MVFR AND -SHRA DEVELOP
IN WESTERN MN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
BLW 5K IN WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KSTC DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SFC TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SSW ARND 10-12 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST TOWARD
MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE IT. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABV THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-055.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ054-056>058-064>067-073>076-082>084-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





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