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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241052
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE RAIN/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
THE CHANCE OF WET SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH
INITIAL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND BASED ON BEST LI`S...THIS
SHOULD WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA NOW...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S.  AS STRONG LIFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
INDICATED A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE POTWX TOOL DID INDICATE SMALL AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THAT REGION INTO TODAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS/  THE RAIN AREA WILL BE AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE
OVER THE SOUTH EAST. SECOND AREA OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME
MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COLD TEMPS ALOFT GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.  MENTIONED SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HELD IN THE 40S
IN THE AREAS SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN CWA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO TONIGHT.  COULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT.  DIDNT MENTION ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE POSITIVE NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE
NOT-SO-POSITIVE PART IS THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION
THAT FEATURES THE MARRYING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW
WITH A LOW THAT BACK PEDDLES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM QUEBEC. WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES TO IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-30 POPS
LITTERING THE FORECAST... AS THE MASSIVE LOW OVERWHELMS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD UPSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING BAJA TROUGH.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S UP TOWARD LADYSMITH WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND AS THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH REACHES THE PLAINS. RELATED PRECIPIATION
SHOULD BEGIN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NOTABLY INCREASING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM
MEANDERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED 60-80 POPS ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...EXCEPTING A LITTLE
FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE LINE WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN MN LOCALES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNINTY FOR THUNDER...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS /INTERSTATE 94
AND NORTH/ MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN /PRIMARILY IN THE NOCTURNAL
TIMEFRAMES MONDAY-TUESDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LOW POPS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSING OUT THE MONTH OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

LARGE AREA OF RAIN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...THROUGH THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVIER RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA
MAINLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 2SM RA BR.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST TO NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER BY 00Z
FRI. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE THE CIGS/VSBYS TO THE WEST...BUT WILL
REMAIN LOWER TO THE EAST INTO THE NIGHT. SOME THREAT OF IFR FG
DEVELOPING BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION SOME MVFR VSBYS THERE FOR NOW. THIS MAY SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL DROP IN BEHIND
THAT TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER THAT SOME MORNING FOG/LOWER CLOUDS INTO WISCONSIN.

SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AHEAD OF SYSTEM EXITING TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DEPARTS...WIND SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST/WEST AND REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...WILL CONTINUE IFR CONDS THROUGH THE MORNING...SLOWLY RISING
TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNS THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND TO MORE N/NW BY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BREAK OUT
TO THE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IF
WINDS DIE OFF COMPLETELY. AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIX TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING THAT FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240846
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE RAIN/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
THE CHANCE OF WET SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH
INITIAL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND BASED ON BEST LI`S...THIS
SHOULD WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA NOW...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S.  AS STRONG LIFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
INDICATED A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE POTWX TOOL DID INDICATE SMALL AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THAT REGION INTO TODAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS/  THE RAIN AREA WILL BE AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE
OVER THE SOUTH EAST. SECOND AREA OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME
MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COLD TEMPS ALOFT GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.  MENTIONED SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HELD IN THE 40S
IN THE AREAS SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN CWA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO TONIGHT.  COULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT.  DIDNT MENTION ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE POSITIVE NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE
NOT-SO-POSITIVE PART IS THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION
THAT FEATURES THE MARRYING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW
WITH A LOW THAT BACK PEDDLES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM QUEBEC. WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES TO IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-30 POPS
LITTERING THE FORECAST... AS THE MASSIVE LOW OVERWHELMS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD UPSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING BAJA TROUGH.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S UP TOWARD LADYSMITH WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND AS THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH REACHES THE PLAINS. RELATED PRECIPIATION
SHOULD BEGIN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NOTABLY INCREASING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM
MEANDERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED 60-80 POPS ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...EXCEPTING A LITTLE
FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE LINE WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN MN LOCALES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNINTY FOR THUNDER...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS /INTERSTATE 94
AND NORTH/ MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN /PRIMARILY IN THE NOCTURNAL
TIMEFRAMES MONDAY-TUESDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LOW POPS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSING OUT THE MONTH OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALL WFO MPX TERMINALS AT
24/06Z INITIALIZATION TIME BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ORGANIZING OVER FAR SWRN MN AND GOING UPSTREAM
FROM THERE. THIS LARGER AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COVERAGE AREA APPROACHING DAYBREAK AND PERSIST THRU MIDDAY THU.
SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN
ARND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN...WHICH MAY DROP VSBY
INTO IFR RAIN DUE TO PRECIP INTENSITY. AS FOR CIGS...ALL SITES ARE
VFR BUT HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
MVFR CIGS FROM THE 00Z SET PER THESE TRENDS BUT AM STILL XPCTG
CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY 09Z-10Z AND REMAIN AS SUCH INTO LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO TRY TO PINPOINT CONVECTION AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND AN
INCOMING CDFNT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS ATTM...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE HRS
TMRW WITH THE FROPA. WINDS TO REMAIN NE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY TMRW THEN SWING AROUND TO EVENTUALLY BECOME W TO NW TMRW EVE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT THRU TMRW AFTN THEN DIMINISHING.

KMSP...VFR CONDS TO START THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE PRE-DAWN
HRS ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY SOLID RAIN. RAIN WILL
PERSIST THRU LATE MRNG...WITH A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN LIKELY DURG
THE MRNG PUSH WHICH MAY DROP CONDS INTO IFR RANGE. PRECIP
GRADUALLY ABATES BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTN AND CONDS IMPROVE FROM
THERE. WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE SE THRU LATE MRNG...THEN AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWING ARND TO SW BY MID
AFTN THEN TO WNW TMRW AFTN AND EVE. SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST DURG
THE FIRST 6-9 HRS OF THIS TAF SET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240424
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1124 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN
RIVER VALLEY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE
TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD
SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALL WFO MPX TERMINALS AT
24/06Z INITIALIZATION TIME BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ORGANIZING OVER FAR SWRN MN AND GOING UPSTREAM
FROM THERE. THIS LARGER AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COVERAGE AREA APPROACHING DAYBREAK AND PERSIST THRU MIDDAY THU.
SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN
ARND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN...WHICH MAY DROP VSBY
INTO IFR RAIN DUE TO PRECIP INTENSITY. AS FOR CIGS...ALL SITES ARE
VFR BUT HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
MVFR CIGS FROM THE 00Z SET PER THESE TRENDS BUT AM STILL XPCTG
CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY 09Z-10Z AND REMAIN AS SUCH INTO LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO TRY TO PINPOINT CONVECTION AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND AN
INCOMING CDFNT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS ATTM...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE HRS
TMRW WITH THE FROPA. WINDS TO REMAIN NE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY TMRW THEN SWING AROUND TO EVENTUALLY BECOME W TO NW TMRW EVE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT THRU TMRW AFTN THEN DIMINISHING.

KMSP...VFR CONDS TO START THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE PRE-DAWN
HRS ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY SOLID RAIN. RAIN WILL
PERSIST THRU LATE MRNG...WITH A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN LIKELY DURG
THE MRNG PUSH WHICH MAY DROP CONDS INTO IFR RANGE. PRECIP
GRADUALLY ABATES BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTN AND CONDS IMPROVE FROM
THERE. WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE SE THRU LATE MRNG...THEN AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWING ARND TO SW BY MID
AFTN THEN TO WNW TMRW AFTN AND EVE. SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST DURG
THE FIRST 6-9 HRS OF THIS TAF SET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN
RIVER VALLEY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE
TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD
SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

-RA PUSHING THRU THE REGION AT INITIALIZATION IS MAINLY AFFECTING
KMSP-KRNH-KEAU...AND ONLY FOR THE FIRST 1-2 HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEN THERE LOOKS TO BE A BONA FIDE BREAK FOR SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z-08Z ACRS THE COVERAGE AREA...ESPECIALLY
FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN. ERN MN INTO WRN WI LOOK TO HAVE A MUCH SHORTER
WINDOW FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. THE SECOND ROUND THAT COMES IN
ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE MOD-HVY BANDS WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY
PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR CONDS WITHIN PREVAILING MVFR. PRECIP THEN
LOOKS TO LINGER THRU MIDDAY THU BEFORE EXITING LATE DAY THU. ALL
SITES INITIALIZE AS VFR THEN DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND LINGER AS
SUCH THRU MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE OCNL IFR CIGS. AS FOR VSBY...
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT CHCS ARE NOT GREAT. FOR WINDS...SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE TMRW MRNG. AS THE LOW PRES CENTER SLIDES
ACRS SRN MN TMRW AFTN...WINDS WILL SPIN AROUND THE COMPASS AND
EVENTUALLY LAND ON NW WINDS BY LATE AFTN. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG AND REMAIN THERE WITH THE WIND SHIFT
BEFORE INCRG BACK TO NEAR 10 KT LATE.

KMSP...VFR AT INITIALIZATION THEN CIGS DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY THU
MRNG AND WILL REMAIN AS MVFR THRU THE DAY TMRW. CIGS LIKELY TO
DROP TO SUB-1700 FT ARND DAYBREAK...LASTING THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING. HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIP LOOK TO DEVELOP ARND
DAYBREAK...WITH MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY AFFECTING THE MRNG
PUSH. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 232048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS DUE TO THE REX
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS
FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS
SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON
WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S. ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING
PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE
COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE
END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HRS. OUR FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT THE NOON HOUR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK BACK TO THE
WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS SW MN LATER
THIS AFTN WITH A HEAVIER, STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR IF NOT IFR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

KMSP...INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH BY
22Z...WITH MORE STEADY RAIN RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED BY 09Z...NOT IMPROVING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
     065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JCA








000
FXUS63 KMPX 231716
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE 00Z HIRES NMM MODEL WAS INDICATING.
WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL TREND OF THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MN THROUGH 17Z. THUNDER LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRANSLATING MORE TO THE EAST
THROUGH 00Z THU.  INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
DURING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY REMAINS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN THE SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADV FOR TODAY IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7 PM.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS BRINGS
IN STRONG FORCING INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA TO AROUND
1 INCH WHICH IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL.  THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA INTO THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE LOOK
GOOD HERE.  THUNDER LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS INTO A PART OF
WEST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...AND REMAIN
STABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW...AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE MN/IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A WET LONG TERM FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A GIVEN...WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST TO EVOLVE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE /AND MODEL AGREEMENT/ IS DECENT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEN
DEGRADES INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY A
CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

THE FIRST RAIN-MAKER WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD /THURSDAY/...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR
FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. SAID AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO NEAR ONE INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
DAYTIME THURSDAY /ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP
LINGERS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE
AFTERNOON CLEARING IS MORE PROBABLE.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN ND/MN/WI WILL TAKE RESIDENCE NEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ITS FORECAST POSITION HAS WOBBLED A BIT OVER MODEL
RUNS...BUT HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT NORTH...AND ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATE...BUT DO THINK LOW/MID 60S ARE ACHIEVABLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR...WITH LOW/MID 50S MORE LIKELY
TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL /LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS/ AND A BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS A FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT
RELATED SHOWERS TO START LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I94 COULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY BY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SNOW AND/OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HRS. OUR FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT THE NOON HOUR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK BACK TO THE
WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS SW MN LATER
THIS AFTN WITH A HEAVIER, STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR IF NOT IFR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

KMSP...INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH BY
22Z...WITH MORE STEADY RAIN RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED BY 09Z...NOT IMPROVING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
     065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JCA








000
FXUS63 KMPX 231051
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE 00Z HIRES NMM MODEL WAS INDICATING.
WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL TREND OF THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MN THROUGH 17Z. THUNDER LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRANSLATING MORE TO THE EAST
THROUGH 00Z THU.  INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
DURING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY REMAINS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN THE SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADV FOR TODAY IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7 PM.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS BRINGS
IN STRONG FORCING INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA TO AROUND
1 INCH WHICH IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL.  THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA INTO THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE LOOK
GOOD HERE.  THUNDER LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS INTO A PART OF
WEST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...AND REMAIN
STABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW...AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE MN/IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A WET LONG TERM FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A GIVEN...WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST TO EVOLVE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE /AND MODEL AGREEMENT/ IS DECENT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEN
DEGRADES INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY A
CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

THE FIRST RAIN-MAKER WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD /THURSDAY/...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR
FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. SAID AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO NEAR ONE INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
DAYTIME THURSDAY /ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP
LINGERS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE
AFTERNOON CLEARING IS MORE PROBABLE.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN ND/MN/WI WILL TAKE RESIDENCE NEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ITS FORECAST POSITION HAS WOBBLED A BIT OVER MODEL
RUNS...BUT HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT NORTH...AND ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATE...BUT DO THINK LOW/MID 60S ARE ACHIEVABLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR...WITH LOW/MID 50S MORE LIKELY
TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL /LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS/ AND A BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS A FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT
RELATED SHOWERS TO START LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I94 COULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY BY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SNOW AND/OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOST AREAS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
ESPECIALLY AFTER 05Z...WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH 10Z. BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY MN SITES DURING THE DAY...WORKING
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 05Z AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ISOLD AT TAF SITES
SO LEFT OUT OUT FOR NOW. EXPECT IFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE THU
MORNING FOR NOW...AS TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND OVER WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECT
TO RELAX SOME TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY MOST AREAS.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 15Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA BR
DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z THU. SOME THREAT
OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF IT WAS
TO HAPPEN...GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN 06Z/11Z THU. SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE
NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU AFTN...MVFR CONDS WITH SHRA PSBL. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230919
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE 00Z HIRES NMM MODEL WAS INDICATING.
WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL TREND OF THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MN THROUGH 17Z. THUNDER LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRANSLATING MORE TO THE EAST
THROUGH 00Z THU.  INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
DURING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY REMAINS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN THE SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADV FOR TODAY IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7 PM.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS BRINGS
IN STRONG FORCING INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA TO AROUND
1 INCH WHICH IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL.  THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA INTO THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE LOOK
GOOD HERE.  THUNDER LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS INTO A PART OF
WEST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...AND REMAIN
STABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW...AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE MN/IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A WET LONG TERM FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A GIVEN...WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST TO EVOLVE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE /AND MODEL AGREEMENT/ IS DECENT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEN
DEGRADES INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY A
CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

THE FIRST RAIN-MAKER WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD /THURSDAY/...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR
FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. SAID AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO NEAR ONE INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
DAYTIME THURSDAY /ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP
LINGERS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE
AFTERNOON CLEARING IS MORE PROBABLE.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN ND/MN/WI WILL TAKE RESIDENCE NEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ITS FORECAST POSITION HAS WOBBLED A BIT OVER MODEL
RUNS...BUT HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT NORTH...AND ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATE...BUT DO THINK LOW/MID 60S ARE ACHIEVABLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR...WITH LOW/MID 50S MORE LIKELY
TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL /LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS/ AND A BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS A FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT
RELATED SHOWERS TO START LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I94 COULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY BY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SNOW AND/OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR TO START FOR ALL SITES ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN
FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES EXITS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING BUT
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS ENE DURG THE DAY WEDNESDAY TWD THIS REGION...CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND -SHRA/-RA WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION MID-TO-LATE
MRNG. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REGION
BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR CONDS TO DROP MUCH BELOW UPPER-REGIONS OF
MVFR...IF AT ALL DURG THE DAYTIME HRS.MVFR CONDS WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT AFTER 00Z...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER RAINS AFTER 00Z
WHICH MAY WELL PRODUCE IFR VSBY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CB/TS SINCE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE S OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WHILE ISOLD
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 5 KT. WINDS WILL SETTLE ON
SE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCRS WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...
EVENTUALLY HITTING THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TMRW AFTN
INTO TMRW EVE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...THEN WILL LOOK
FOR POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AHEAD OF THAT TIME...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W...GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DEVELOPING INTO A CEILING. MIDLVL CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG AND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. -SHRA/-RA WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MRNG AND BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT CHCS FOR CONDS TO DROP BELOW VFR ARE FAIRLY LOW...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVIER SHOWER HAPPENS TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT. MORE PREVALENT MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TMRW EVE
ALONG WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CREATING ENOUGH VSBY RESTRICTION TO
INCLUDE IFR CONDS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO SE OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN SE THRU TMRW. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15G25KT
AREA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER...DURG THE DAY TMRW INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230407
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1107 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LAG THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA
DRY UNTIL EARLY MORNING (~12Z). SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN FAE E MN AND
W WI). DESPITE THESE CHALLENGES...MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT PRECIP
DEVELOPS QUICKER... OVERCOMING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN WARM ADVECTION
CASES LIKE THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO E SD LATE. WARM ADVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR PRECIP GENERATION ALONG
WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS LATE AND MOVE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN TO REFLECT THIS BAND OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE ANY T-STORM THREAT IN S SD/NEB AND IOWA.
I AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT TO REFLECT THE
DECREASED CHANCES...T WAS REMOVED FROM THE WX GRIDS. QPF WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.1" TO 0.4"
(HIGHEST IN THE N & E PART OF THE CWA). MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
WILL MATERIALIZE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TYPICALLY WINDY
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SE TO THE TUNE OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. UP TO 40KTS OF
WIND IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH REALIZING WINDS THIS STRONG IS CLOUD
COVER...WHICH MAY INHIBIT MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT SAID...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS FSD AND ABR...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS HAZARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INCREASE TO A
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN POINTING AT A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDING ACROSS WESTERN IA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO AROUND EAU CLAIRE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THE LAYOUT AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH ON
THE 295K THETA SURFACE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS COVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER IOWA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH POP
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY LOOKS NIL AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FA. SO WE WILL
HAVE TO MANUFACTURE OUR OWN FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER DRILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CUTTING
OFF THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
IS PROJECTED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FEATURE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WAA PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS ON TURNING
THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW SHOWS THAT A CUT-OFF HIGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A REX BLOCK (HIGH OVER LOW)
DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SECOND REX BLOCK FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE THE SYMMETRY IN THE
ANIMATION OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW. ANYWAY...THERE/S NO
WHERE FOR OUR UPPER LOW TO GO WITH THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT
OUR LOW IS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. HENCE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD SEAL THE MONTH
OF APRIL BEING BELOW NORMAL HERE AT MSP. THIS WOULD BE 6 MONTHS IN
A ROW. ONE FINAL THING...WE HAD TO KEEP THE S WORD IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR TO START FOR ALL SITES ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN
FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES EXITS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING BUT
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS ENE DURG THE DAY WEDNESDAY TWD THIS REGION...CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND -SHRA/-RA WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION MID-TO-LATE
MRNG. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REGION
BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR CONDS TO DROP MUCH BELOW UPPER-REGIONS OF
MVFR...IF AT ALL DURG THE DAYTIME HRS.MVFR CONDS WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT AFTER 00Z...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER RAINS AFTER 00Z
WHICH MAY WELL PRODUCE IFR VSBY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CB/TS SINCE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE S OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WHILE ISOLD
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 5 KT. WINDS WILL SETTLE ON
SE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCRS WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...
EVENTUALLY HITTING THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TMRW AFTN
INTO TMRW EVE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...THEN WILL LOOK
FOR POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AHEAD OF THAT TIME...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W...GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DEVELOPING INTO A CEILING. MIDLVL CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG AND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. -SHRA/-RA WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MRNG AND BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT CHCS FOR CONDS TO DROP BELOW VFR ARE FAIRLY LOW...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVIER SHOWER HAPPENS TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT. MORE PREVALENT MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TMRW EVE
ALONG WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CREATING ENOUGH VSBY RESTRICTION TO
INCLUDE IFR CONDS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO SE OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN SE THRU TMRW. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15G25KT
AREA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER...DURG THE DAY TMRW INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ047-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
716 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LAG THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA
DRY UNTIL EARLY MORNING (~12Z). SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN FAE E MN AND
W WI). DESPITE THESE CHALLENGES...MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT PRECIP
DEVELOPS QUICKER... OVERCOMING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN WARM ADVECTION
CASES LIKE THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO E SD LATE. WARM ADVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR PRECIP GENERATION ALONG
WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS LATE AND MOVE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN TO REFLECT THIS BAND OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE ANY T-STORM THREAT IN S SD/NEB AND IOWA.
I AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT TO REFLECT THE
DECREASED CHANCES...T WAS REMOVED FROM THE WX GRIDS. QPF WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.1" TO 0.4"
(HIGHEST IN THE N & E PART OF THE CWA). MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
WILL MATERIALIZE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TYPICALLY WINDY
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SE TO THE TUNE OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. UP TO 40KTS OF
WIND IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH REALIZING WINDS THIS STRONG IS CLOUD
COVER...WHICH MAY INHIBIT MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT SAID...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS FSD AND ABR...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS HAZARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INCREASE TO A
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN POINTING AT A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDING ACROSS WESTERN IA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO AROUND EAU CLAIRE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THE LAYOUT AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH ON
THE 295K THETA SURFACE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS COVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER IOWA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH POP
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY LOOKS NIL AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FA. SO WE WILL
HAVE TO MANUFACTURE OUR OWN FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER DRILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CUTTING
OFF THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
IS PROJECTED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FEATURE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WAA PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS ON TURNING
THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW SHOWS THAT A CUT-OFF HIGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A REX BLOCK (HIGH OVER LOW)
DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SECOND REX BLOCK FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE THE SYMMETRY IN THE
ANIMATION OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW. ANYWAY...THERE/S NO
WHERE FOR OUR UPPER LOW TO GO WITH THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT
OUR LOW IS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. HENCE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD SEAL THE MONTH
OF APRIL BEING BELOW NORMAL HERE AT MSP. THIS WOULD BE 6 MONTHS IN
A ROW. ONE FINAL THING...WE HAD TO KEEP THE S WORD IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR TO START FOR ALL SITES WITH HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW-
MOVING BUT WELL-ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE PLAINS. AS
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS ENE DURG THE DAY TMRW TWD THIS REGION...CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND -SHRA/-RA WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REGION BUT AM NOT
LOOKING FOR CONDS TO DROP MUCH BELOW UPPER-REGIONS OF MVFR... AND
NOT MUCH BEFORE TMRW EVE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CB/TS SINCE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE S OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE
TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. WINDS WILL
SETTLE ON SE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT A VERY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCRS WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TMRW...EVENTUALLY HITTING THE 20-30KT RANGE TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...THEN WILL LOOK
FOR POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AHEAD OF THAT TIME...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W...GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DEVELOPING INTO A CEILING. MIDLVL CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG AND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. -SHRA/-RA WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MRNG AND BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT CHCS FOR CONDS TO DROP BELOW VFR ARE FAIRLY LOW...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVIER SHOWER HAPPENS TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT. MORE PREVALENT MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TMRW EVE.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NE TO SE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SE THRU TMRW.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15G25KT AREA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER...DURG THE DAY TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ047-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 222046
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LAG THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA
DRY UNTIL EARLY MORNING (~12Z). SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN FAE E MN AND
W WI). DESPITE THESE CHALLENGES...MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT PRECIP
DEVELOPS QUICKER... OVERCOMING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN WARM ADVECTION
CASES LIKE THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO E SD LATE. WARM ADVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR PRECIP GENERATION ALONG
WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS LATE AND MOVE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN TO REFLECT THIS BAND OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE ANY T-STORM THREAT IN S SD/NEB AND IOWA.
I AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT TO REFLECT THE
DECREASED CHANCES...T WAS REMOVED FROM THE WX GRIDS. QPF WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.1" TO 0.4"
(HIGHEST IN THE N & E PART OF THE CWA). MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
WILL MATERIALIZE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TYPICALLY WINDY
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING
OUT OF THE SE TO THE TUNE OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. UP TO 40KTS OF WIND IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE INTO GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE
WITH REALIZING WINDS THIS STRONG IS CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY INHIBIT
MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL. WITH THAT SAID...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WFOS FSD AND ABR...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR THIS HAZARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INCREASE TO A
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN POINTING AT A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDING ACROSS WESTERN IA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO AROUND EAU CLAIRE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THE LAYOUT AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH ON
THE 295K THETA SURFACE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS COVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER IOWA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH POP
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY LOOKS NIL AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FA. SO WE WILL HAVE
TO MANUFACTURE OUR OWN FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER DRILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CUTTING
OFF THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
IS PROJECTED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FEATURE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WAA PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS ON
TURNING THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. A
LOOK AT THE HEMISPHERIC FLOW SHOWS THAT A CUT-OFF HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A REX BLOCK (HIGH
OVER LOW) DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SECOND REX
BLOCK FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE THE
SYMMETRY IN THE ANIMATION OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW.
ANYWAY...THERE/S NO WHERE FOR OUR UPPER LOW TO GO WITH THE BLOCK
DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT OUR LOW IS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HENCE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD SEAL THE MONTH OF APRIL BEING BELOW NORMAL HERE AT MSP.
THIS WOULD BE 6 MONTHS IN A ROW. ONE FINAL THING...WE HAD TO KEEP
THE S WORD IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD THERMAL PROFILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN AT THE NOON HOUR TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW SETS UP. A LARGE AND COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING 12-13Z AT KAXN. THE MOST PREVALENT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MN RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PD. SE WINDS WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY (GUSTS TO 25KT+)...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST BY MID-MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF MSP AS OF NOON...BUT BEFORE
THE FINAL PUSH OF THE EVE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE ENE BUT
ALSO DECREASE TO 7KT OR LESS. SE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING FIRST THING IN
THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF VFR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH 16-22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
RAIN... IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ047-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JCA








000
FXUS63 KMPX 221731
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH THE
ONLY ITEM OF ANY CONCERN BEING CHANCES FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION
PCPN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS... KEEPING THINGS
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY... ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT... WORKING TO DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE... WITH SUFFICIENT SATURATION LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WEST
AFTER THE 06-09Z FOR SOME PCPN. AT THIS POINT... THINK ANY PCPN
WILL STAY WEST OF I-35 THROUGH 12Z. WOULD BE A BIT MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT PCPN DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS...
SINCE THAT OFTEN OCCURS IN SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION SCENARIOS... BUT
THE LACK OF ANY APPARENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP THAT FROM OCCURRING. NEITHER MUCAPE... BEST LI...
SHOWALTER INDICES... NOR SIMPLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY VIA
850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E INDICATE ANY INSTABILITY WORKING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... SO TIMING OF PCPN SHOULD REALLY REMAIN
TIED TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SATURATION... WHICH LOOKS TO
ONLY IMPACT THE WESTERN THIRD-TO HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE FAR WEST BY 06... THEN BROUGHT
IT TO JUST WEST OF I-35 BY 12Z. WE WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY TODAY... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH AROUND 825MB OR SO...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 60-65 OUT WEST... NEAR 60 IN THE
TWIN CITIES METRO... AND MID 50S IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS IS THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF OF AT LEAST ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW CLIPPING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT DURING THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE
SOME SOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING EAST
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL RETAIN THE LIKELY POPS...WEST
EARLY...SPREADING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS REMAINS THE BEST PERIOD TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...STRUGGLING TO WARM TO 50 IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONG
NATURE OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE GFS THIS GO ROUND.
THE ECMWF ACTUALLY DRIVES BELOW ZERO H85 TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO THERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE NEXT TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK. BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS MAY BE A BIT FAST IN DRIVING THE
TROUGH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...AND SPREAD
SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE TROUGH TO OVERCOME THE LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY DRY EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF TH WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW COMBO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN AT THE NOON HOUR TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW SETS UP. A LARGE AND COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING 12-13Z AT KAXN. THE MOST PREVALENT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MN RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PD. SE WINDS WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY (GUSTS TO 25KT+)...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST BY MID-MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF MSP AS OF NOON...BUT BEFORE
THE FINAL PUSH OF THE EVE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE ENE BUT
ALSO DECREASE TO 7KT OR LESS. SE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING FIRST THING IN
THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF VFR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH 16-22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
RAIN... IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JCA








000
FXUS63 KMPX 221105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH THE
ONLY ITEM OF ANY CONCERN BEING CHANCES FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION
PCPN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS... KEEPING THINGS
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY... ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT... WORKING TO DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE... WITH SUFFICIENT SATURATION LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WEST
AFTER THE 06-09Z FOR SOME PCPN. AT THIS POINT... THINK ANY PCPN
WILL STAY WEST OF I-35 THROUGH 12Z. WOULD BE A BIT MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT PCPN DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS...
SINCE THAT OFTEN OCCURS IN SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION SCENARIOS... BUT
THE LACK OF ANY APPARENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP THAT FROM OCCURRING. NEITHER MUCAPE... BEST LI...
SHOWALTER INDICES... NOR SIMPLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY VIA
850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E INDICATE ANY INSTABILITY WORKING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... SO TIMING OF PCPN SHOULD REALLY REMAIN
TIED TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SATURATION... WHICH LOOKS TO
ONLY IMPACT THE WESTERN THIRD-TO HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE FAR WEST BY 06... THEN BROUGHT
IT TO JUST WEST OF I-35 BY 12Z. WE WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY TODAY... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH AROUND 825MB OR SO...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 60-65 OUT WEST... NEAR 60 IN THE
TWIN CITIES METRO... AND MID 50S IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS IS THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF OF AT LEAST ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW CLIPPING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT DURING THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE
SOME SOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING EAST
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL RETAIN THE LIKELY POPS...WEST
EARLY...SPREADING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS REMAINS THE BEST PERIOD TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...STRUGGLING TO WARM TO 50 IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONG
NATURE OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE GFS THIS GO ROUND.
THE ECMWF ACTUALLY DRIVES BELOW ZERO H85 TEMPERATUREA OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO THERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE NEXT TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK. BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS MAY BE A BIT FAST IN DRIVING THE
TROUGH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...AND SPREAD
SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE TROUGH TO OVERCOME THE LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY DRY EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF TH WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW COMBO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST... BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER TIME FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING INTO THE AREA FOR SOME PCPN... BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z... SO NO NEED TO
MENTION ANYTHING EXCEPT FOR KMSP WHERE A VCSH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FROM AROUND 15Z ONWARD WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS OVERALL EXPECTATIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO UNCERTAINTY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WIND
SHIFTS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING COULD VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS FROM
FORECAST... BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN PCPN MIGHT ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY... BUT WITH IT
NOT LOOKING TO HAPPEN UNTIL WITHIN 3-6 HOURS OF THE END OF THE
FORECAST CHOSE TO JUST INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS POINT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
RAIN... IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KMPX 220858
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH THE
ONLY ITEM OF ANY CONCERN BEING CHANCES FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION
PCPN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS... KEEPING THINGS
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY... ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT... WORKING TO DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE... WITH SUFFICIENT SATURATION LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WEST
AFTER THE 06-09Z FOR SOME PCPN. AT THIS POINT... THINK ANY PCPN
WILL STAY WEST OF I-35 THROUGH 12Z. WOULD BE A BIT MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT PCPN DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS...
SINCE THAT OFTEN OCCURS IN SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION SCENARIOS... BUT
THE LACK OF ANY APPARENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP THAT FROM OCCURRING. NEITHER MUCAPE... BEST LI...
SHOWALTER INDICES... NOR SIMPLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY VIA
850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E INDICATE ANY INSTABILITY WORKING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... SO TIMING OF PCPN SHOULD REALLY REMAIN
TIED TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SATURATION... WHICH LOOKS TO
ONLY IMPACT THE WESTERN THIRD-TO HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE FAR WEST BY 06... THEN BROUGHT
IT TO JUST WEST OF I-35 BY 12Z. WE WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY TODAY... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH AROUND 825MB OR SO...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 60-65 OUT WEST... NEAR 60 IN THE
TWIN CITIES METRO... AND MID 50S IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS IS THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF OF AT LEAST ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW CLIPPING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT DURING THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE
SOME SOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING EAST
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL RETAIN THE LIKELY POPS...WEST
EARLY...SPREADING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS REMAINS THE BEST PERIOD TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...STRUGGLING TO WARM TO 50 IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONG
NATURE OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE GFS THIS GO ROUND.
THE ECMWF ACTUALLY DRIVES BELOW ZERO H85 TEMPERATUREA OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO THERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE NEXT TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK. BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS MAY BE A BIT FAST IN DRIVING THE
TROUGH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...AND SPREAD
SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE TROUGH TO OVERCOME THE LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY DRY EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF TH WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW COMBO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS SET. WIND WILL REMAIN MAINLY NW WITH SPEEDS
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N AND
NE THRU THE DAY...CONTINUING TO VEER TO E AND SE THROUGH THE
EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN TMRW AFTN...BECOMING
A HIGH CEILING FOR THE MN SITES BY TMRW EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AND DRY WX THRU 23/06Z.

KMSP...VFR. WINDS REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK THEN BECOME
MORE NE BY MIDDAY TMRW...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO E AND SE LATE
TMRW AFTN THRU TMRW EVE. SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. FEW-
SCT HIGH CLOUDS LATE DAY TMRW BECOME A HIGH CEILING TMRW EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS PSBL IN -RA. SE WIND 10-20 KT.
WED NGT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY IN -RA WITH IFR PSBL. SE WIND 15-20
KT.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY EARLY WITH -RA. S WIND 10-20 KT SHIFTING
W.
THU NGT...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS PSBL WITH A CHC -RA. W WIND 5-15 KT
BCMG NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 220412
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1112 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY WILL BE A FINE DAY WEATHER-WISE WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DIP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WERE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY MIX-DOWN FROM 825MB OFF THE
NAM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT SUPER. THIS YIELDED READINGS FROM AROUND
60 IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER 50S AROUND LADYSMITH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...BESIDES RAISING POPS IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP AND BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS /ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY/.

THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT HAS SHIFTED A BIT LATER IN TIME AND WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
ADVANCING 600-800MB FGEN AND WIDESPREAD OMEGA WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE
CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS. ONLY THE 21.12Z GFS HAS MORE OF A CONVECTIVELY BASED QPF
BULLSEYE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. AS FAR AS THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WE ARE MUCH HAPPIER WITH THE MODE AGREEMENT TODAY
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING
ISSUES AND THE 21.12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IS FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN IA...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...AND INTO WESTERN WI. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD HAVE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THE GEM AS AN
EXTREME NORTHERN OUTLIER.

THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITH DRY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT CLEARING
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS AN ADVANCING
UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS SET. WIND WILL REMAIN MAINLY NW WITH SPEEDS
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N AND
NE THRU THE DAY...CONTINUING TO VEER TO E AND SE THROUGH THE
EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN TMRW AFTN...BECOMING
A HIGH CEILING FOR THE MN SITES BY TMRW EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AND DRY WX THRU 23/06Z.

KMSP...VFR. WINDS REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK THEN BECOME
MORE NE BY MIDDAY TMRW...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO E AND SE LATE
TMRW AFTN THRU TMRW EVE. SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. FEW-
SCT HIGH CLOUDS LATE DAY TMRW BECOME A HIGH CEILING TMRW EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS PSBL IN -RA. SE WIND 10-20 KT.
WED NGT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY IN -RA WITH IFR PSBL. SE WIND 15-20
KT.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY EARLY WITH -RA. S WIND 10-20 KT SHIFTING
W.
THU NGT...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS PSBL WITH A CHC -RA. W WIND 5-15 KT
BCMG NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 212337
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
637 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY WILL BE A FINE DAY WEATHER-WISE WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DIP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WERE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY MIX-DOWN FROM 825MB OFF THE
NAM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT SUPER. THIS YIELDED READINGS FROM AROUND
60 IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER 50S AROUND LADYSMITH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...BESIDES RAISING POPS IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP AND BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS /ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY/.

THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT HAS SHIFTED A BIT LATER IN TIME AND WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
ADVANCING 600-800MB FGEN AND WIDESPREAD OMEGA WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE
CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS. ONLY THE 21.12Z GFS HAS MORE OF A CONVECTIVELY BASED QPF
BULLSEYE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. AS FAR AS THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WE ARE MUCH HAPPIER WITH THE MODE AGREEMENT TODAY
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING
ISSUES AND THE 21.12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IS FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN IA...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...AND INTO WESTERN WI. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD HAVE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THE GEM AS AN
EXTREME NORTHERN OUTLIER.

THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITH DRY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT CLEARING
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS AN ADVANCING
UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS SET. STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION
WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRES. WIND WILL REMAIN MAINLY NW WITH SPEEDS
AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N AND
NE THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM
IN TMRW AFTN BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

KMSP...VFR. WINDS TO DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS BY 02Z...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS 03Z. WINDS THEN REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK THEN
BECOME MORE NE BY MIDDAY TMRW WITH SPEEDS STILL IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO ENE AND E LATE TMRW
AFTN THRU TMRW EVE. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS PSBL IN -RA. SE WIND 10-20 KT.
WED NGT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY IN -RA WITH IFR PSBL. SE WIND 15-20
KT.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY EARLY WITH -RA. S WIND 10-20 KT SHIFTING
W.
THU NGT...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS PSBL WITH A CHC -RA. W WIND 5-15 KTS
BCMG NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-
     064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC









000
FXUS63 KMPX 212107
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY WILL BE A FINE DAY WEATHER-WISE WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DIP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WERE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY MIX-DOWN FROM 825MB OFF THE NAM
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT SUPER. THIS YIELDED READINGS FROM AROUND 60 IN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER 50S AROUND LADYSMITH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...BESIDES RAISING POPS IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP AND BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS /ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY/.

THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT HAS SHIFTED A BIT LATER IN TIME AND WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
ADVANCING 600-800MB FGEN AND WIDESPREAD OMEGA WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE
CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS. ONLY THE 21.12Z GFS HAS MORE OF A CONVECTIVELY BASED QPF
BULLSEYE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. AS FAR AS THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WE ARE MUCH HAPPIER WITH THE MODE AGREEMENT TODAY
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING
ISSUES AND THE 21.12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IS FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN IA...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...AND INTO WESTERN WI. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD HAVE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THE GEM AS AN
EXTREME NORTHERN OUTLIER.

THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITH DRY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT CLEARING
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS AN ADVANCING
UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM
KAXN ON SOUTH THROUGH KRWF. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN APPROACHING
KAXN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE LEADING EDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ERODING. PLAN ON JUST KEEPING A SCT DECK FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A SLOW VEERING TO
THE NORTH - NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.

KMSP...VFR FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8
KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE AFTN...VFR. N WIND 6-8 KTS.
TUE NGT...VFR. WIND BCMG SE 6-8 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH -RA.
SE WIND 10-20 KTS.
WED NGT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN -RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
SE WIND 15 TO 20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY EARLY WITH -RA. S WIND 10-20 KTS
SHIFTING W.
THU NGT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF -RA. W WIND 5-15
KTS BCMG NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-
     064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 211720
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1220 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA... AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ACTING AS A WARM
FRONT OF SORTS... WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND
ALSO TO THE WEST ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. SPC MESOANALYSIS MUCAPE
SHOWS VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH THE AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA... LINING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE RAP
ANALYZED 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING... WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER... UNTIL THAT TIME WE
WILL SEE SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND PEA-SIZED HAIL WITH THE STORMS
THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BY 18Z WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING
QUICKLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA... WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS... PARTICULARLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SO WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
WINDS QUICKLY DYING OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS... AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA... MAKING FOR LOWS IN THE 30S
AND PERHAPS BELOW FREEZING IN OUTLYING AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TRENDS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TRNED THAT WILL LAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE LONG TERM FOR TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE A
RATHER PLEASNT DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AND LLJ INTENSIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DEVELOP AT
LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...SPILLING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE. STEEPER LAPSE
RATES MOVE INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN TO THE
WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WORKS EAST WITH
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
LIFT NORTH ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALONG/NEAR
THE MN/IA BORDER. STILL SEE SOME ELEVATED HAIL POSSIBILITIES LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
AND DROPS SOME COLDER AIR SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM. IT
EVENTUALLY DROPS 85H TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MINUS 12C ONCE AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN STORE WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM
KAXN ON SOUTH THROUGH KRWF. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN APPROACHING
KAXN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE LEADING EDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ERODING. PLAN ON JUST KEEPING A SCT DECK FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A SLOW VEERING TO
THE NORTH - NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.

KMSP...VFR FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8
KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE AFTN...VFR. N WIND 6-8 KTS.
TUE NGT...VFR. WIND BCMG SE 6-8 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH -RA.
SE WIND 10-20 KTS.
WED NGT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN -RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
SE WIND 15 TO 20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY EARLY WITH -RA. S WIND 10-20 KTS
SHIFTING W.
THU NGT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF -RA. W WIND 5-15
KTS BCMG NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-
     064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH








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