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000
FXUS63 KMPX 190421
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1121 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAYS FORECAST CENTERED AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS KEEP THE PRECIP OVER MN...AND LEAVE WESTERN
WISCONSIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT...IT
LOOKS LIGHT THERE WILL BE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF...1 ALONG SOUTHERN
MN...AND THE OTHER ALONG NORTHWESTERN MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE
CAPE THAT DOES EXIST IS CONFINED TO THE SHALLOW H700-500MB LAYER.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER...AND HAVE CONFINED IT TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SOUTH/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. BY
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK WITH US FOR UPCOMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE DRY SLOT WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. HOWEVER...DOUBLE OR TRIPLE BARREL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS HERE AND THERE.
MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR EARLY WEEK. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE DEEP
MIXING...WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS.

VERY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OUT BY WEDNESDAY SO AT LEAST THERE WON/T
BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND SEVERAL LIGHT FREEZES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN MOVING IN TONIGHT. THE 06Z TAF REFLECTS THE BEST ESTIMATE ON
TIMING. WE DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR...BUT
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD...STEADY LIGHT RAIN SETS IN TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW. WE THINK THE VIS WILL REACH 4SM
BRIEFLY AND THE CEILING SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 2000 FT EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BUT WE ARE SOMEWHAT UNSURE ON WHEN SPECIFICALLY THAT
WILL HAPPEN. THE TAF REPRESENTS ARE BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING.
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SOGGY EARLY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 190421
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1121 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAYS FORECAST CENTERED AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS KEEP THE PRECIP OVER MN...AND LEAVE WESTERN
WISCONSIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT...IT
LOOKS LIGHT THERE WILL BE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF...1 ALONG SOUTHERN
MN...AND THE OTHER ALONG NORTHWESTERN MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE
CAPE THAT DOES EXIST IS CONFINED TO THE SHALLOW H700-500MB LAYER.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER...AND HAVE CONFINED IT TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SOUTH/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. BY
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK WITH US FOR UPCOMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE DRY SLOT WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. HOWEVER...DOUBLE OR TRIPLE BARREL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS HERE AND THERE.
MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR EARLY WEEK. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE DEEP
MIXING...WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS.

VERY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OUT BY WEDNESDAY SO AT LEAST THERE WON/T
BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND SEVERAL LIGHT FREEZES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN MOVING IN TONIGHT. THE 06Z TAF REFLECTS THE BEST ESTIMATE ON
TIMING. WE DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR...BUT
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD...STEADY LIGHT RAIN SETS IN TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW. WE THINK THE VIS WILL REACH 4SM
BRIEFLY AND THE CEILING SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 2000 FT EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BUT WE ARE SOMEWHAT UNSURE ON WHEN SPECIFICALLY THAT
WILL HAPPEN. THE TAF REPRESENTS ARE BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING.
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SOGGY EARLY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 182354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAYS FORECAST CENTERED AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS KEEP THE PRECIP OVER MN...AND LEAVE WESTERN
WISCONSIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT...IT
LOOKS LIGHT THERE WILL BE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF...1 ALONG SOUTHERN
MN...AND THE OTHER ALONG NORTHWESTERN MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE
CAPE THAT DOES EXIST IS CONFINED TO THE SHALLOW H700-500MB LAYER.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER...AND HAVE CONFINED IT TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SOUTH/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. BY
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK WITH US FOR UPCOMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE DRY SLOT WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. HOWEVER...DOUBLE OR TRIPLE BARREL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS HERE AND THERE.
MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR EARLY WEEK. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE DEEP
MIXING...WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS.

VERY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OUT BY WEDNESDAY SO AT LEAST THERE WON/T
BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND SEVERAL LIGHT FREEZES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN MOVING IN TONIGHT. THE 00Z TAF REFLECTS THE BEST ESTIMATE ON
TIMING. WE DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR...BUT
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WE ALSO DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER...PERHAPS A FEW IN-CLOUD RUMBLES.

KMSP...

NOT MUCH TO ADD...STEADY LIGHT RAIN SETS IN TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW. WE THINK THE VIS WILL REACH 4SM AND
THE CEILING SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 2000 FT EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WE ARE SOMEWHAT UNSURE ON WHEN SPECIFICALLY THAT
WILL HAPPEN. THE TAF REPRESENTS ARE BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING.
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SOGGY EARLY MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH EMBEDDED THUNDER...SO THE RAIN WILL NEVER BE ALL THAT
HEAVY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 182354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAYS FORECAST CENTERED AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS KEEP THE PRECIP OVER MN...AND LEAVE WESTERN
WISCONSIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT...IT
LOOKS LIGHT THERE WILL BE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF...1 ALONG SOUTHERN
MN...AND THE OTHER ALONG NORTHWESTERN MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE
CAPE THAT DOES EXIST IS CONFINED TO THE SHALLOW H700-500MB LAYER.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER...AND HAVE CONFINED IT TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SOUTH/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. BY
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK WITH US FOR UPCOMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE DRY SLOT WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. HOWEVER...DOUBLE OR TRIPLE BARREL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS HERE AND THERE.
MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR EARLY WEEK. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE DEEP
MIXING...WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS.

VERY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OUT BY WEDNESDAY SO AT LEAST THERE WON/T
BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND SEVERAL LIGHT FREEZES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN MOVING IN TONIGHT. THE 00Z TAF REFLECTS THE BEST ESTIMATE ON
TIMING. WE DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR...BUT
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WE ALSO DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER...PERHAPS A FEW IN-CLOUD RUMBLES.

KMSP...

NOT MUCH TO ADD...STEADY LIGHT RAIN SETS IN TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW. WE THINK THE VIS WILL REACH 4SM AND
THE CEILING SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 2000 FT EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WE ARE SOMEWHAT UNSURE ON WHEN SPECIFICALLY THAT
WILL HAPPEN. THE TAF REPRESENTS ARE BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING.
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SOGGY EARLY MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH EMBEDDED THUNDER...SO THE RAIN WILL NEVER BE ALL THAT
HEAVY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 182025
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAYS FORECAST CENTERED AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS KEEP THE PRECIP OVER MN...AND LEAVE WESTERN
WISCONSIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT...IT
LOOKS LIGHT THERE WILL BE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF...1 ALONG SOUTHERN
MN...AND THE OTHER ALONG NORTHWESTERN MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE
CAPE THAT DOES EXIST IS CONFINED TO THE SHALLOW H700-500MB LAYER.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER...AND HAVE CONFINED IT TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SOUTH/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. BY
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK WITH US FOR UPCOMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE DRY SLOT WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. HOWEVER...DOUBLE OR TRIPLE BARREL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS HERE AND THERE.
MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR EARLY WEEK. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE DEEP
MIXING...WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS.

VERY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OUT BY WEDNESDAY SO AT LEAST THERE WON/T
BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND SEVERAL LIGHT FREEZES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR AS STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SO SHOW SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AROUND 05Z.
WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 182025
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAYS FORECAST CENTERED AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS KEEP THE PRECIP OVER MN...AND LEAVE WESTERN
WISCONSIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT...IT
LOOKS LIGHT THERE WILL BE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF...1 ALONG SOUTHERN
MN...AND THE OTHER ALONG NORTHWESTERN MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE
CAPE THAT DOES EXIST IS CONFINED TO THE SHALLOW H700-500MB LAYER.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER...AND HAVE CONFINED IT TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SOUTH/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. BY
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN THE SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK WITH US FOR UPCOMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE DRY SLOT WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. HOWEVER...DOUBLE OR TRIPLE BARREL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS HERE AND THERE.
MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR EARLY WEEK. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE DEEP
MIXING...WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS.

VERY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KICK OUT BY WEDNESDAY SO AT LEAST THERE WON/T
BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND SEVERAL LIGHT FREEZES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR AS STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SO SHOW SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AROUND 05Z.
WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 181842
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR AS STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SO SHOW SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


KMSP...
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AROUND 05Z.
WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 181842
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR AS STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SO SHOW SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


KMSP...
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AROUND 05Z.
WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 181101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
STEADILY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER
DISTURBANCE. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE. CIGS START TO FALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...NO DIFFERENCE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. FROPA EXPECTED MID DAY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT THAT TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 181101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
STEADILY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER
DISTURBANCE. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE. CIGS START TO FALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...NO DIFFERENCE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. FROPA EXPECTED MID DAY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT THAT TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 181101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
STEADILY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER
DISTURBANCE. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE. CIGS START TO FALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...NO DIFFERENCE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. FROPA EXPECTED MID DAY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT THAT TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 180912
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 180912
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 180355 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 180355 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 180355 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 180355 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 180000 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 180000 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 180000 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH RAIN PUSHING IN AT THE END OF DAY OR
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NW AT 10-20KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 20G30 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 172026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
326 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST
AND INCREASING SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MN.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING NE AND THEN EAST
INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...CHACNE MVFR/-RA. WINDS E AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 172026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
326 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WONT ALL BE
MET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY COLLABORATE
A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THUNDER THREAT LOW AND ISOLATED
THUNDER A THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. KEPT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIP.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WAS THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE
TWO PV ANOMALIES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
DRIVER...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS STRONGER AND FASTER...PER THE 17.12GFS...THAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
WEAKER...THAN THERE WOULD BE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STRIP OF VORTICITY SITUATED OVER MN/WI. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST
AND INCREASING SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MN.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING NE AND THEN EAST
INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...CHACNE MVFR/-RA. WINDS E AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 171650
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST
AND INCREASING SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MN.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING NE AND THEN EAST
INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...CHACNE MVFR/-RA. WINDS E AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 171650
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST
AND INCREASING SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MN.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOMING NE AND THEN EAST
INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...CHACNE MVFR/-RA. WINDS E AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170944
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
444 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 170944
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
444 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170924
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KNOTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170924
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KNOTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 170924
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WHILE WE EVENTUALLY SEE OUR
WEATHER CHANGE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
ALLOWING OUR REGION TO ENJOY THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH DESPITE DEEP MIXING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850MB IS LIKELY
TODAY...SO USED A MIX DOWN FOR DEW POINTS WHICH LOWERED VALUES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN
TONIGHT...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. DECREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THIS LOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
SATURATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
GET HERE...BUT A THE DECREASE IN POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WAS
WARRANTED DUE TO THE DELAY IN SATURATION AND BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SAT-SUN...SAT STARTS OUT WITH A CUTOFF UPR LVL LOW MEANDERING OVER
CO/NM WHILE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROF MOVES EWD OVER THE WRN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS THE SAME OF THE TROF
DIGGING INTO THE NRN CONUS...ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
EXPANDING GREATLY INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE SUN. AT
THE SFC...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANDHANDLES
WILL BECOME WELL-DEVELOPED BY SUN MRNG...ALLOWING STRONG PVA AND
MIDLVL OMEGA LIFT TO WORK WITHIN A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...
THANKS TO THE GOMEX BEING TAPPED THIS FAR N...TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL STARTING IN WRN MN SAT AFTN THEN SPREADING INTO ERN MN
AND WRN WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES FOR HOW FAR THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE
EWD THRU THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS ON MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA SEEING A GOOD RAIN EVENT
LATE SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN. QPF TOTALS MAY WELL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF ACRS
THE AREA...AND WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE UPR LVL TROF SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS...DRAGGING
DOWN MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE
UNDER THE TROF. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED
FCST...HITTING THE MID 60S...WHILE SUN WILL SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM THE DAY PRIOR.

MON-TUE...COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN WITH THE EXPANDING UPR LVL
TROF WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A STILL FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN THIS WILL SPELL OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE DAY.

WED-THU...PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WHILE THE LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE ERN
NOAM COAST AT THE SAME TIME...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN CONUS...KEEPING THE CENTRAL STATES IN A DRY COOL PATTERN
WITH NO SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KNOTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 170340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 162336
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WNW FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO ISSUES FORESEEN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 162336
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WNW FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO ISSUES FORESEEN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 162053
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 162053
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 162053
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 162053
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 161809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENIGN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 161809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENIGN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 161809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENIGN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 161809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENIGN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 161043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

KEPT VCSH FOR EASTERN MN/FAR WC WI FOR A FEW HRS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY BEFORE 15Z. OTHERWISE...SE/S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SW-W BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND MORE W/NW BY MID/LATE AFTN.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OR AOA 4K. SOME LOWER CLDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
KAXN DURING THE MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

KMSP...

VCSH FOR AN HR OR TWO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW BY MID/LATE MORNING. A
MORE W/NW WIND WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTN. CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS NW-W 8-12 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA AFTERNOON ONWARD. WINDS E 10 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA LIKELY. CHC IFR. WINDS E 10 KTS BECMG NE.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 161043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

KEPT VCSH FOR EASTERN MN/FAR WC WI FOR A FEW HRS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY BEFORE 15Z. OTHERWISE...SE/S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SW-W BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND MORE W/NW BY MID/LATE AFTN.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OR AOA 4K. SOME LOWER CLDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
KAXN DURING THE MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

KMSP...

VCSH FOR AN HR OR TWO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW BY MID/LATE MORNING. A
MORE W/NW WIND WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTN. CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS NW-W 8-12 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA AFTERNOON ONWARD. WINDS E 10 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA LIKELY. CHC IFR. WINDS E 10 KTS BECMG NE.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 161043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

KEPT VCSH FOR EASTERN MN/FAR WC WI FOR A FEW HRS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY BEFORE 15Z. OTHERWISE...SE/S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SW-W BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND MORE W/NW BY MID/LATE AFTN.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OR AOA 4K. SOME LOWER CLDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
KAXN DURING THE MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

KMSP...

VCSH FOR AN HR OR TWO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW BY MID/LATE MORNING. A
MORE W/NW WIND WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTN. CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS NW-W 8-12 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA AFTERNOON ONWARD. WINDS E 10 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA LIKELY. CHC IFR. WINDS E 10 KTS BECMG NE.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 160911
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
VICINITY OF KRWF WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH KAXN
AND KSTC SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE 040.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING SW
ON THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE NNW THURSDAY EVENING.

KMSP...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 050. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA AFTERNOON ONWARD. WINDS E 10 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA LIKELY. CHC IFR. WINDS E 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 160911
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
VICINITY OF KRWF WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH KAXN
AND KSTC SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE 040.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING SW
ON THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE NNW THURSDAY EVENING.

KMSP...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 050. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA AFTERNOON ONWARD. WINDS E 10 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA LIKELY. CHC IFR. WINDS E 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH





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