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000
FXUS63 KMPX 302308
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH MLCAPES ARND 500 J/KG HAD
GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST...SO CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE DURING
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTN TIME FRAME. AS WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
CYCLONIC CONTINUES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THESE LOW
CLDS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
LATER TONIGHT...ANY LOW CLDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WC WI AS THIS AREA WILL BE LAST TO SEE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETREAT ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BOTH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES...ALONG A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE LLJ ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE TO CONCLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE UPPER JET CORE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A JET
COUPLET FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS...SHOULD LEAD
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY SUNDAY EVENING. AGAIN...MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS JET COUPLET WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF AMTS. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL CLD CVR FROM DECAYING MORNING TSRA COULD LIMIT
FULL AFTN ISOLATION. THE BEST AREA FOR BOTH JET STRUCTURE/HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ACROSS IOWA. FAR SC/SW MN
COULD ALSO BE IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER SVR WX POTENTIAL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED MONITOR STRENGTH OF THIS JET ALONG WITH TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WX THREAT...PWATS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5"
RANGE. IF ANY TSRA BEGIN TO TRAIN OR BACK BUILD...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING
HRS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

POTENT CDFNT WILL HAVE SHIFTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA BY
DAYBREAK MON MRNG...WITH IT PROGRESSING JUST BARELY INTO WRN WI
AND SERN MN. SOME LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN
FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BUT
STRENGTH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...MEANING THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL HAVE BEEN TAPPED BY THIS POINT. SUPPORTING THIS FACT IS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWFA AND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER STRETCHED OUT BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW PRES CENTER OVER WRN
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND A SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER OVER KS. HIGH
PRES WILL THEN NUDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL WNW-ESE. A FEW BUCKLES IN THE FLOW WITHIN A
PERSISTENTLY DEEP MOIST ATMOS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD SHWRS FROM TIME TO
TIME LATE MON THRU MUCH OF WED. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT
E INTO THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY THEN OHIO VALLEY BY WED MRNG...
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WED.

THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...HELPING SET UP A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN ACRS THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AND AID IN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THU THROUGH SAT. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF
QPF NOR STORM STRENGTH...BUT FINDING SOLID DRY TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. CANNOT SAY ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT ATTM...BUT ALSO
HARD TO PINPOINT ONE TIMEFRAME OVER ANOTHER FOR BEST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE
WORKWEEK...CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID-UPR 70S INTO THE LWR 80S BY
FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS
WHICH ON SMALL SCALES MAY CREATE SOME VARIETY WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
BY SAT... THIS LOW PRES COMPLEX WILL SHIFT S AND E OF THE MPX
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR A COOLING OF TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THEY
WILL BREAK OUT IN AN HOUR OR TWO. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUD REMAIN
FOR A TIME INTO THE NIGH...WITH BEST SHOT OF MVFR REMAINING
LONGEST INTO KEAU. EVENING SHRA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH OVER
WESTERN METRO...SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH 03Z. WILL MENTION
VCSH AT KMSP UNTIL THEN.  CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON OVERALL
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. IF IT WAS GOING TO
OCCUR...LOOKS BEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MAINTAIN LIFR
FCST AT KEAU FOR NOW. THEN MODELS SUGGEST SOME FORM OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN MAINLY AFTER 10Z. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AT
KAXN FOR NOW. INCREASING THUNDER THREAT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z MON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH AND INCREASE/GUSTY THROUGH
17Z-18Z SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

KMSP...
SHOWERS WEST OF THE FIELD ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH 03Z. WILL
HOLD ONTO VCSH FOR NOW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE AREA AND
SWITCH WINDS BRIEFLY MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON S THUNDER THREAT ARRIVES. LOOKS BEST AFTER 23Z SUNDAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AND MORE SE-S DIRECTION INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVENING...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN +TSRA LIKELY. WNDS SSE AT 10-20
KTS. MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 302308
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH MLCAPES ARND 500 J/KG HAD
GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST...SO CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE DURING
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTN TIME FRAME. AS WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
CYCLONIC CONTINUES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THESE LOW
CLDS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
LATER TONIGHT...ANY LOW CLDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WC WI AS THIS AREA WILL BE LAST TO SEE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETREAT ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BOTH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES...ALONG A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE LLJ ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE TO CONCLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE UPPER JET CORE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A JET
COUPLET FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS...SHOULD LEAD
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY SUNDAY EVENING. AGAIN...MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS JET COUPLET WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF AMTS. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL CLD CVR FROM DECAYING MORNING TSRA COULD LIMIT
FULL AFTN ISOLATION. THE BEST AREA FOR BOTH JET STRUCTURE/HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ACROSS IOWA. FAR SC/SW MN
COULD ALSO BE IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER SVR WX POTENTIAL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED MONITOR STRENGTH OF THIS JET ALONG WITH TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WX THREAT...PWATS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5"
RANGE. IF ANY TSRA BEGIN TO TRAIN OR BACK BUILD...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING
HRS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

POTENT CDFNT WILL HAVE SHIFTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA BY
DAYBREAK MON MRNG...WITH IT PROGRESSING JUST BARELY INTO WRN WI
AND SERN MN. SOME LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN
FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BUT
STRENGTH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...MEANING THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL HAVE BEEN TAPPED BY THIS POINT. SUPPORTING THIS FACT IS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWFA AND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER STRETCHED OUT BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW PRES CENTER OVER WRN
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND A SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER OVER KS. HIGH
PRES WILL THEN NUDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL WNW-ESE. A FEW BUCKLES IN THE FLOW WITHIN A
PERSISTENTLY DEEP MOIST ATMOS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD SHWRS FROM TIME TO
TIME LATE MON THRU MUCH OF WED. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT
E INTO THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY THEN OHIO VALLEY BY WED MRNG...
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WED.

THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...HELPING SET UP A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN ACRS THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AND AID IN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THU THROUGH SAT. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF
QPF NOR STORM STRENGTH...BUT FINDING SOLID DRY TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. CANNOT SAY ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT ATTM...BUT ALSO
HARD TO PINPOINT ONE TIMEFRAME OVER ANOTHER FOR BEST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE
WORKWEEK...CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID-UPR 70S INTO THE LWR 80S BY
FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS
WHICH ON SMALL SCALES MAY CREATE SOME VARIETY WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
BY SAT... THIS LOW PRES COMPLEX WILL SHIFT S AND E OF THE MPX
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR A COOLING OF TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THEY
WILL BREAK OUT IN AN HOUR OR TWO. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUD REMAIN
FOR A TIME INTO THE NIGH...WITH BEST SHOT OF MVFR REMAINING
LONGEST INTO KEAU. EVENING SHRA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH OVER
WESTERN METRO...SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH 03Z. WILL MENTION
VCSH AT KMSP UNTIL THEN.  CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON OVERALL
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. IF IT WAS GOING TO
OCCUR...LOOKS BEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MAINTAIN LIFR
FCST AT KEAU FOR NOW. THEN MODELS SUGGEST SOME FORM OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN MAINLY AFTER 10Z. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AT
KAXN FOR NOW. INCREASING THUNDER THREAT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z MON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH AND INCREASE/GUSTY THROUGH
17Z-18Z SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

KMSP...
SHOWERS WEST OF THE FIELD ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH 03Z. WILL
HOLD ONTO VCSH FOR NOW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE AREA AND
SWITCH WINDS BRIEFLY MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON S THUNDER THREAT ARRIVES. LOOKS BEST AFTER 23Z SUNDAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AND MORE SE-S DIRECTION INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVENING...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN +TSRA LIKELY. WNDS SSE AT 10-20
KTS. MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 302003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH MLCAPES ARND 500 J/KG HAD
GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST...SO CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE DURING
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTN TIME FRAME. AS WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
CYCLONIC CONTINUES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THESE LOW
CLDS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
LATER TONIGHT...ANY LOW CLDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WC WI AS THIS AREA WILL BE LAST TO SEE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETREAT ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BOTH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES...ALONG A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE LLJ ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE TO CONCLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE UPPER JET CORE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A JET
COUPLET FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS...SHOULD LEAD
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY SUNDAY EVENING. AGAIN...MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS JET COUPLET WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF AMTS. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL CLD CVR FROM DECAYING MORNING TSRA COULD LIMIT
FULL AFTN ISOLATION. THE BEST AREA FOR BOTH JET STRUCTURE/HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ACROSS IOWA. FAR SC/SW MN
COULD ALSO BE IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER SVR WX POTENTIAL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED MONITOR STRENGTH OF THIS JET ALONG WITH TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WX THREAT...PWATS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5"
RANGE. IF ANY TSRA BEGIN TO TRAIN OR BACK BUILD...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING
HRS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

POTENT CDFNT WILL HAVE SHIFTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA BY
DAYBREAK MON MRNG...WITH IT PROGRESSING JUST BARELY INTO WRN WI
AND SERN MN. SOME LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN
FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BUT
STRENGTH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...MEANING THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL HAVE BEEN TAPPED BY THIS POINT. SUPPORTING THIS FACT IS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWFA AND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER STRETCHED OUT BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW PRES CENTER OVER WRN
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND A SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER OVER KS. HIGH
PRES WILL THEN NUDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL WNW-ESE. A FEW BUCKLES IN THE FLOW WITHIN A
PERSISTENTLY DEEP MOIST ATMOS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD SHWRS FROM TIME TO
TIME LATE MON THRU MUCH OF WED. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT
E INTO THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY THEN OHIO VALLEY BY WED MRNG...
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WED.

THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...HELPING SET UP A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN ACRS THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AND AID IN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THU THROUGH SAT. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF
QPF NOR STORM STRENGTH...BUT FINDING SOLID DRY TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. CANNOT SAY ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT ATTM...BUT ALSO
HARD TO PINPOINT ONE TIMEFRAME OVER ANOTHER FOR BEST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE
WORKWEEK...CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID-UPR 70S INTO THE LWR 80S BY
FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS
WHICH ON SMALL SCALES MAY CREATE SOME VARIETY WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
BY SAT... THIS LOW PRES COMPLEX WILL SHIFT S AND E OF THE MPX
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR A COOLING OF TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD ARND THE REGION THRU
THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING AND DIURNAL HEATING ENABLES
LCL/S TO RISE TO VFR. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST THRU THE AFTN...AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME MERIT TO THIS FORECAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST AND SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTN. IN
ADDITION...AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ACROSS WI/IA MAY ADVECT BACK INTO
MN CREATING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ONLY HAD KSTC WITH THIS SCENARIO
BASED ON LOCATION AND THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VCNTY. IN
ADDITION...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE AT KRNH/KEAU IF
SKIES CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND FOR THESE SITES. AFT
12Z...MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AIRPORT
TERMINAL THRU 19-20Z...WITH A SLOW LIFT TO LOW END VFR DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN HRS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR HAS
ALLOWED FOR VFR CONDS TEMPORARILY...BUT WITH THE AMT OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 5K...IT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN. AS PREVIOUSLY
SAID...AM CONCERN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE AMT OF
MOISTURE HOLDING IN THE AREA FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 21Z AMD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS
WITH SE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SE WINDS AND
THE CHC OF TSRA AFT 18Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN EVENING...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN +TSRA LIKELY. WNDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 302003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH MLCAPES ARND 500 J/KG HAD
GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST...SO CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE DURING
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTN TIME FRAME. AS WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
CYCLONIC CONTINUES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THESE LOW
CLDS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
LATER TONIGHT...ANY LOW CLDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WC WI AS THIS AREA WILL BE LAST TO SEE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETREAT ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BOTH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES...ALONG A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE LLJ ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE TO CONCLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE UPPER JET CORE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A JET
COUPLET FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS...SHOULD LEAD
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY SUNDAY EVENING. AGAIN...MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS JET COUPLET WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF AMTS. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL CLD CVR FROM DECAYING MORNING TSRA COULD LIMIT
FULL AFTN ISOLATION. THE BEST AREA FOR BOTH JET STRUCTURE/HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ACROSS IOWA. FAR SC/SW MN
COULD ALSO BE IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER SVR WX POTENTIAL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED MONITOR STRENGTH OF THIS JET ALONG WITH TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WX THREAT...PWATS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5"
RANGE. IF ANY TSRA BEGIN TO TRAIN OR BACK BUILD...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING
HRS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

POTENT CDFNT WILL HAVE SHIFTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA BY
DAYBREAK MON MRNG...WITH IT PROGRESSING JUST BARELY INTO WRN WI
AND SERN MN. SOME LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN
FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BUT
STRENGTH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...MEANING THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL HAVE BEEN TAPPED BY THIS POINT. SUPPORTING THIS FACT IS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWFA AND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER STRETCHED OUT BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW PRES CENTER OVER WRN
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND A SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER OVER KS. HIGH
PRES WILL THEN NUDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL WNW-ESE. A FEW BUCKLES IN THE FLOW WITHIN A
PERSISTENTLY DEEP MOIST ATMOS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD SHWRS FROM TIME TO
TIME LATE MON THRU MUCH OF WED. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT
E INTO THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY THEN OHIO VALLEY BY WED MRNG...
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WED.

THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...HELPING SET UP A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN ACRS THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AND AID IN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THU THROUGH SAT. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF
QPF NOR STORM STRENGTH...BUT FINDING SOLID DRY TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. CANNOT SAY ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT ATTM...BUT ALSO
HARD TO PINPOINT ONE TIMEFRAME OVER ANOTHER FOR BEST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE
WORKWEEK...CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID-UPR 70S INTO THE LWR 80S BY
FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS
WHICH ON SMALL SCALES MAY CREATE SOME VARIETY WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
BY SAT... THIS LOW PRES COMPLEX WILL SHIFT S AND E OF THE MPX
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR A COOLING OF TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD ARND THE REGION THRU
THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING AND DIURNAL HEATING ENABLES
LCL/S TO RISE TO VFR. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST THRU THE AFTN...AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME MERIT TO THIS FORECAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST AND SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTN. IN
ADDITION...AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ACROSS WI/IA MAY ADVECT BACK INTO
MN CREATING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ONLY HAD KSTC WITH THIS SCENARIO
BASED ON LOCATION AND THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VCNTY. IN
ADDITION...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE AT KRNH/KEAU IF
SKIES CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND FOR THESE SITES. AFT
12Z...MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AIRPORT
TERMINAL THRU 19-20Z...WITH A SLOW LIFT TO LOW END VFR DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN HRS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR HAS
ALLOWED FOR VFR CONDS TEMPORARILY...BUT WITH THE AMT OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 5K...IT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN. AS PREVIOUSLY
SAID...AM CONCERN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE AMT OF
MOISTURE HOLDING IN THE AREA FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 21Z AMD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS
WITH SE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SE WINDS AND
THE CHC OF TSRA AFT 18Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN EVENING...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN +TSRA LIKELY. WNDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 301655
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR HEADING
FOR EAU CLAIRE AT 3 AM. TO THE NW OF THIS CIRCULATION...WE HAVE SEEN
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP PERSIST ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI. THIS
BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS WRN WI...MOSTLY CLEARING
THE MPX CWA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE OFFENDING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WIS. HOWEVER...THIS NOT THE ONLY SHORTWAVE
WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT TODAY...WITH THE STRONG WAVE UP NEAR FARGO
LOOKING TO TAKE A TRIP DOWN I-94...ENDING UP NEAR EAU CLAIRE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE SEEN OUT IN WRN/CENTRAL MN ALL NIGHT...THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SMALL AND WEAK POP-UP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FROM TIME-TO-TIME ON ITS TREK EAST. AS A RESULT...HELD SOME 20 POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER...WHICH IS ALSO
WHERE SIMULATED WV FORECASTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE DRYING CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING A
TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET HUNG UP BACK INTO CENTRAL MN.

BESIDE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR LA CROSSE HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS ALL BUT NW MN AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO...THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS
STAY IN PLACE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS CLOUDS WILL BE
WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDY SCENARIO THAT IS
EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH A FEW PLACES IN CENTRAL MN LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SYSTEM IMPACTING US ON SUNDAY
BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OUT
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LIKELY FUELING AN ELEVATED MCS THAT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY NORTHWEST OF
THE MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO KEEP SOME 30 POPS GOING OUT IN THE NW CWA
LATE TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SKY
COVER TRENDS AS THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DECOUPLED...WHICH WILL LEAVE WRN WI
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WE LIKE WHAT THE DAY
SHIFT HAD FOR STORM TIMING AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
"DEFINITE" THUNDERSTORMS AND A "CHANCE" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS AS GOOD A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANY OTHER EVENT THIS YEAR...ALBEIT A QUIET
YEAR.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE MID-UPPER JET /50-70KTS/
THAT WILL ACT TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN BETWEEN 00-06Z
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CLASSIC DIFLUENT PATTERN AS EVIDENT BY THE
850-300MB THICKNESS SUNDAY EVENING TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG FGEN
COMING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE WIDESPREAD WITH STORMS ALREADY ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WITH HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF
LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING. WE`RE STARTING TO GET A LOOK AT SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY LOOK SHOWS A COUPLE STRONG LINE
SEGMENTS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...BRINGING SBCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG IN MN. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS TO BOTH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS RUNS SHOW A GOOD NUMBER OF SEVERE REPORTS WHEN LOOKING AT
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. THE NUMBER OF DAMAGING WIND REPORTS
IMMEDIATELY JUMPED OUT AT US. THIS WOULD ALSO MATCH WHAT`S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THERE
WAS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF TORNADO REPORTS ON A FEW ANALOGS...WHICH
IS LIKELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECASTED STRONG LLJ
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW COULD REMAIN
BACKED IN EASTERN MN DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO WE MIGHT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT A FEW KINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES AND WEAK TORNADO
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND
SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS
FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT
WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
ARE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO ANY ORGANIZED FORCING OR
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT REMOVING THE
THUNDER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD ARND THE REGION THRU
THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING AND DIURNAL HEATING ENABLES
LCL/S TO RISE TO VFR. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST THRU THE AFTN...AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME MERIT TO THIS FORECAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST AND SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTN. IN
ADDITION...AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ACROSS WI/IA MAY ADVECT BACK INTO
MN CREATING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ONLY HAD KSTC WITH THIS SCENARIO
BASED ON LOCATION AND THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VCNTY. IN
ADDITION...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE AT KRNH/KEAU IF
SKIES CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND FOR THESE SITES. AFT
12Z...MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AIRPORT
TERMINAL THRU 19-20Z...WITH A SLOW LIFT TO LOW END VFR DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN HRS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR HAS ALLOWED
FOR VFR CONDS TEMPORARILY...BUT WITH THE AMT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 5K...IT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN. AS PREVIOUSLY SAID...AM
CONCERN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE AMT OF MOISTURE
HOLDING IN THE AREA FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 21Z AMD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WITH SE
WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SE WINDS AND THE CHC
OF TSRA AFT 18Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN EVENING...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN +TSRA LIKELY. WNDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 301655
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR HEADING
FOR EAU CLAIRE AT 3 AM. TO THE NW OF THIS CIRCULATION...WE HAVE SEEN
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP PERSIST ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI. THIS
BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS WRN WI...MOSTLY CLEARING
THE MPX CWA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE OFFENDING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WIS. HOWEVER...THIS NOT THE ONLY SHORTWAVE
WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT TODAY...WITH THE STRONG WAVE UP NEAR FARGO
LOOKING TO TAKE A TRIP DOWN I-94...ENDING UP NEAR EAU CLAIRE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE SEEN OUT IN WRN/CENTRAL MN ALL NIGHT...THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SMALL AND WEAK POP-UP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FROM TIME-TO-TIME ON ITS TREK EAST. AS A RESULT...HELD SOME 20 POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER...WHICH IS ALSO
WHERE SIMULATED WV FORECASTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE DRYING CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING A
TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET HUNG UP BACK INTO CENTRAL MN.

BESIDE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR LA CROSSE HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS ALL BUT NW MN AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO...THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS
STAY IN PLACE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS CLOUDS WILL BE
WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDY SCENARIO THAT IS
EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH A FEW PLACES IN CENTRAL MN LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SYSTEM IMPACTING US ON SUNDAY
BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OUT
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LIKELY FUELING AN ELEVATED MCS THAT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY NORTHWEST OF
THE MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO KEEP SOME 30 POPS GOING OUT IN THE NW CWA
LATE TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SKY
COVER TRENDS AS THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DECOUPLED...WHICH WILL LEAVE WRN WI
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WE LIKE WHAT THE DAY
SHIFT HAD FOR STORM TIMING AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
"DEFINITE" THUNDERSTORMS AND A "CHANCE" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS AS GOOD A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANY OTHER EVENT THIS YEAR...ALBEIT A QUIET
YEAR.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE MID-UPPER JET /50-70KTS/
THAT WILL ACT TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN BETWEEN 00-06Z
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CLASSIC DIFLUENT PATTERN AS EVIDENT BY THE
850-300MB THICKNESS SUNDAY EVENING TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG FGEN
COMING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE WIDESPREAD WITH STORMS ALREADY ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WITH HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF
LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING. WE`RE STARTING TO GET A LOOK AT SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY LOOK SHOWS A COUPLE STRONG LINE
SEGMENTS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...BRINGING SBCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG IN MN. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS TO BOTH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS RUNS SHOW A GOOD NUMBER OF SEVERE REPORTS WHEN LOOKING AT
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. THE NUMBER OF DAMAGING WIND REPORTS
IMMEDIATELY JUMPED OUT AT US. THIS WOULD ALSO MATCH WHAT`S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THERE
WAS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF TORNADO REPORTS ON A FEW ANALOGS...WHICH
IS LIKELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECASTED STRONG LLJ
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW COULD REMAIN
BACKED IN EASTERN MN DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO WE MIGHT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT A FEW KINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES AND WEAK TORNADO
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND
SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS
FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT
WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
ARE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO ANY ORGANIZED FORCING OR
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT REMOVING THE
THUNDER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD ARND THE REGION THRU
THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING AND DIURNAL HEATING ENABLES
LCL/S TO RISE TO VFR. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST THRU THE AFTN...AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME MERIT TO THIS FORECAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST AND SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTN. IN
ADDITION...AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ACROSS WI/IA MAY ADVECT BACK INTO
MN CREATING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ONLY HAD KSTC WITH THIS SCENARIO
BASED ON LOCATION AND THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VCNTY. IN
ADDITION...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE AT KRNH/KEAU IF
SKIES CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND FOR THESE SITES. AFT
12Z...MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AIRPORT
TERMINAL THRU 19-20Z...WITH A SLOW LIFT TO LOW END VFR DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN HRS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR HAS ALLOWED
FOR VFR CONDS TEMPORARILY...BUT WITH THE AMT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 5K...IT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN. AS PREVIOUSLY SAID...AM
CONCERN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE AMT OF MOISTURE
HOLDING IN THE AREA FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 21Z AMD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WITH SE
WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SE WINDS AND THE CHC
OF TSRA AFT 18Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN EVENING...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN +TSRA LIKELY. WNDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 301048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR HEADING
FOR EAU CLAIRE AT 3 AM. TO THE NW OF THIS CIRCULATION...WE HAVE SEEN
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP PERSIST ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI. THIS
BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS WRN WI...MOSTLY CLEARING
THE MPX CWA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE OFFENDING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WIS. HOWEVER...THIS NOT THE ONLY SHORTWAVE
WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT TODAY...WITH THE STRONG WAVE UP NEAR FARGO
LOOKING TO TAKE A TRIP DOWN I-94...ENDING UP NEAR EAU CLAIRE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE SEEN OUT IN WRN/CENTRAL MN ALL NIGHT...THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SMALL AND WEAK POP-UP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FROM TIME-TO-TIME ON ITS TREK EAST. AS A RESULT...HELD SOME 20 POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER...WHICH IS ALSO
WHERE SIMULATED WV FORECASTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE DRYING CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING A
TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET HUNG UP BACK INTO CENTRAL MN.

BESIDE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR LA CROSSE HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS ALL BUT NW MN AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO...THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS
STAY IN PLACE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS CLOUDS WILL BE
WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDY SCENARIO THAT IS
EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH A FEW PLACES IN CENTRAL MN LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SYSTEM IMPACTING US ON SUNDAY
BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OUT
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LIKELY FUELING AN ELEVATED MCS THAT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY NORTHWEST OF
THE MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO KEEP SOME 30 POPS GOING OUT IN THE NW CWA
LATE TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SKY
COVER TRENDS AS THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DECOUPLED...WHICH WILL LEAVE WRN WI
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WE LIKE WHAT THE DAY
SHIFT HAD FOR STORM TIMING AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
"DEFINITE" THUNDERSTORMS AND A "CHANCE" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS AS GOOD A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANY OTHER EVENT THIS YEAR...ALBEIT A QUIET
YEAR.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE MID-UPPER JET /50-70KTS/
THAT WILL ACT TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN BETWEEN 00-06Z
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CLASSIC DIFLUENT PATTERN AS EVIDENT BY THE
850-300MB THICKNESS SUNDAY EVENING TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG FGEN
COMING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE WIDESPREAD WITH STORMS ALREADY ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WITH HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF
LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING. WE`RE STARTING TO GET A LOOK AT SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY LOOK SHOWS A COUPLE STRONG LINE
SEGMENTS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...BRINGING SBCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG IN MN. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS TO BOTH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS RUNS SHOW A GOOD NUMBER OF SEVERE REPORTS WHEN LOOKING AT
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. THE NUMBER OF DAMAGING WIND REPORTS
IMMEDIATELY JUMPED OUT AT US. THIS WOULD ALSO MATCH WHAT`S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THERE
WAS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF TORNADO REPORTS ON A FEW ANALOGS...WHICH
IS LIKELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECASTED STRONG LLJ
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW COULD REMAIN
BACKED IN EASTERN MN DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO WE MIGHT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT A FEW KINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES AND WEAK TORNADO
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND
SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS
FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT
WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
ARE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO ANY ORGANIZED FORCING OR
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT REMOVING THE
THUNDER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A LAYERED STRATUS DECK IS MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS THIS
MORNING. LOWEST CONDITIONS OUT ARE IN THE WRN HALF OF MN...WHERE
SOME WEAK CAA HAS SETUP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
NEAR I-35 TO START THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER IN THE EAU AREA THROUGH 14Z...MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI...BUT WITH
COVERAGE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...KEPT TAFS DRY AFTER THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE VARIED HEIGHTS OF THE STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THE IFR AND LOWER CONDS TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL BE HANGING ON TO THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET OUT AT EAU TONIGHT...AS SKIES DO NOT LOOK TO CLEAR OUT
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. FOG POTENTIAL AT
RNH WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND STRENGTHENING SE WINDS WILL MAKE FOG A NON-ISSUE FOR MN
TERMINALS.

KMSP...CIGS RANGE FROM 006 TO 060 ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES...SO WILL
BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN CIG HEIGHTS THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE MSP WILL SPEND MORE TIME ABOVE 017
THAN BELOW IT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH IFR/+TSRA LIKELY LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KMPX 301048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR HEADING
FOR EAU CLAIRE AT 3 AM. TO THE NW OF THIS CIRCULATION...WE HAVE SEEN
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP PERSIST ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI. THIS
BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS WRN WI...MOSTLY CLEARING
THE MPX CWA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE OFFENDING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WIS. HOWEVER...THIS NOT THE ONLY SHORTWAVE
WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT TODAY...WITH THE STRONG WAVE UP NEAR FARGO
LOOKING TO TAKE A TRIP DOWN I-94...ENDING UP NEAR EAU CLAIRE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE SEEN OUT IN WRN/CENTRAL MN ALL NIGHT...THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SMALL AND WEAK POP-UP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FROM TIME-TO-TIME ON ITS TREK EAST. AS A RESULT...HELD SOME 20 POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER...WHICH IS ALSO
WHERE SIMULATED WV FORECASTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE DRYING CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING A
TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET HUNG UP BACK INTO CENTRAL MN.

BESIDE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR LA CROSSE HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS ALL BUT NW MN AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO...THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS
STAY IN PLACE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS CLOUDS WILL BE
WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDY SCENARIO THAT IS
EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH A FEW PLACES IN CENTRAL MN LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SYSTEM IMPACTING US ON SUNDAY
BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OUT
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LIKELY FUELING AN ELEVATED MCS THAT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY NORTHWEST OF
THE MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO KEEP SOME 30 POPS GOING OUT IN THE NW CWA
LATE TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SKY
COVER TRENDS AS THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DECOUPLED...WHICH WILL LEAVE WRN WI
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WE LIKE WHAT THE DAY
SHIFT HAD FOR STORM TIMING AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
"DEFINITE" THUNDERSTORMS AND A "CHANCE" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS AS GOOD A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANY OTHER EVENT THIS YEAR...ALBEIT A QUIET
YEAR.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE MID-UPPER JET /50-70KTS/
THAT WILL ACT TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN BETWEEN 00-06Z
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CLASSIC DIFLUENT PATTERN AS EVIDENT BY THE
850-300MB THICKNESS SUNDAY EVENING TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG FGEN
COMING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE WIDESPREAD WITH STORMS ALREADY ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WITH HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF
LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING. WE`RE STARTING TO GET A LOOK AT SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY LOOK SHOWS A COUPLE STRONG LINE
SEGMENTS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...BRINGING SBCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG IN MN. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS TO BOTH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS RUNS SHOW A GOOD NUMBER OF SEVERE REPORTS WHEN LOOKING AT
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. THE NUMBER OF DAMAGING WIND REPORTS
IMMEDIATELY JUMPED OUT AT US. THIS WOULD ALSO MATCH WHAT`S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THERE
WAS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF TORNADO REPORTS ON A FEW ANALOGS...WHICH
IS LIKELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECASTED STRONG LLJ
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW COULD REMAIN
BACKED IN EASTERN MN DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO WE MIGHT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT A FEW KINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES AND WEAK TORNADO
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND
SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS
FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT
WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
ARE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO ANY ORGANIZED FORCING OR
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT REMOVING THE
THUNDER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A LAYERED STRATUS DECK IS MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS THIS
MORNING. LOWEST CONDITIONS OUT ARE IN THE WRN HALF OF MN...WHERE
SOME WEAK CAA HAS SETUP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
NEAR I-35 TO START THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER IN THE EAU AREA THROUGH 14Z...MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI...BUT WITH
COVERAGE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...KEPT TAFS DRY AFTER THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE VARIED HEIGHTS OF THE STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THE IFR AND LOWER CONDS TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL BE HANGING ON TO THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET OUT AT EAU TONIGHT...AS SKIES DO NOT LOOK TO CLEAR OUT
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. FOG POTENTIAL AT
RNH WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND STRENGTHENING SE WINDS WILL MAKE FOG A NON-ISSUE FOR MN
TERMINALS.

KMSP...CIGS RANGE FROM 006 TO 060 ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES...SO WILL
BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN CIG HEIGHTS THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE MSP WILL SPEND MORE TIME ABOVE 017
THAN BELOW IT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH IFR/+TSRA LIKELY LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 300948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR HEADING
FOR EAU CLAIRE AT 3 AM. TO THE NW OF THIS CIRCULATION...WE HAVE SEEN
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP PERSIST ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI. THIS
BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS WRN WI...MOSTLY CLEARING
THE MPX CWA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE OFFENDING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WIS. HOWEVER...THIS NOT THE ONLY SHORTWAVE
WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT TODAY...WITH THE STRONG WAVE UP NEAR FARGO
LOOKING TO TAKE A TRIP DOWN I-94...ENDING UP NEAR EAU CLAIRE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE SEEN OUT IN WRN/CENTRAL MN ALL NIGHT...THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SMALL AND WEAK POP-UP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FROM TIME-TO-TIME ON ITS TREK EAST. AS A RESULT...HELD SOME 20 POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER...WHICH IS ALSO
WHERE SIMULATED WV FORECASTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE DRYING CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING A
TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET HUNG UP BACK INTO CENTRAL MN.

BESIDE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR LA CROSSE HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS ALL BUT NW MN AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO...THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS
STAY IN PLACE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS CLOUDS WILL BE
WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDY SCENARIO THAT IS
EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH A FEW PLACES IN CENTRAL MN LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SYSTEM IMPACTING US ON SUNDAY
BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OUT
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LIKELY FUELING AN ELEVATED MCS THAT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY NORTHWEST OF
THE MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO KEEP SOME 30 POPS GOING OUT IN THE NW CWA
LATE TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SKY
COVER TRENDS AS THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DECOUPLED...WHICH WILL LEAVE WRN WI
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WE LIKE WHAT THE DAY
SHIFT HAD FOR STORM TIMING AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
"DEFINITE" THUNDERSTORMS AND A "CHANCE" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS AS GOOD A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANY OTHER EVENT THIS YEAR...ALBEIT A QUIET
YEAR.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE MID-UPPER JET /50-70KTS/
THAT WILL ACT TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN BETWEEN 00-06Z
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CLASSIC DIFLUENT PATTERN AS EVIDENT BY THE
850-300MB THICKNESS SUNDAY EVENING TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG FGEN
COMING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE WIDESPREAD WITH STORMS ALREADY ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WITH HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF
LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING. WE`RE STARTING TO GET A LOOK AT SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY LOOK SHOWS A COUPLE STRONG LINE
SEGMENTS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...BRINGING SBCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG IN MN. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS TO BOTH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS RUNS SHOW A GOOD NUMBER OF SEVERE REPORTS WHEN LOOKING AT
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. THE NUMBER OF DAMAGING WIND REPORTS
IMMEDIATELY JUMPED OUT AT US. THIS WOULD ALSO MATCH WHAT`S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THERE
WAS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF TORNADO REPORTS ON A FEW ANALOGS...WHICH
IS LIKELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECASTED STRONG LLJ
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW COULD REMAIN
BACKED IN EASTERN MN DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO WE MIGHT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT A FEW KINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES AND WEAK TORNADO
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND
SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS
FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT
WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
ARE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO ANY ORGANIZED FORCING OR
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT REMOVING THE
THUNDER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
HAS DECREASED A BIT THIS EVENING AS CIGS STILL REMAIN LARGELY IN
THE VFR RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN. STILL THINK CIGS WILL
LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT PUSHED BACK THE TIMING AND
EASED THE IMPACTS A BIT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WI AND
ERN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

KMSP...MSP HAS BEEN IN AN ISOLATED SPOT WITH IFR CIGS FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BEFORE CIGS DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH IFR/+TSRA LIKELY LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 300948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR HEADING
FOR EAU CLAIRE AT 3 AM. TO THE NW OF THIS CIRCULATION...WE HAVE SEEN
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP PERSIST ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI. THIS
BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS WRN WI...MOSTLY CLEARING
THE MPX CWA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE OFFENDING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WIS. HOWEVER...THIS NOT THE ONLY SHORTWAVE
WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT TODAY...WITH THE STRONG WAVE UP NEAR FARGO
LOOKING TO TAKE A TRIP DOWN I-94...ENDING UP NEAR EAU CLAIRE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE SEEN OUT IN WRN/CENTRAL MN ALL NIGHT...THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SMALL AND WEAK POP-UP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FROM TIME-TO-TIME ON ITS TREK EAST. AS A RESULT...HELD SOME 20 POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER...WHICH IS ALSO
WHERE SIMULATED WV FORECASTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE DRYING CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING A
TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET HUNG UP BACK INTO CENTRAL MN.

BESIDE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR LA CROSSE HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD SETTING UP ACROSS ALL BUT NW MN AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO...THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS
STAY IN PLACE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS CLOUDS WILL BE
WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDY SCENARIO THAT IS
EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH A FEW PLACES IN CENTRAL MN LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SYSTEM IMPACTING US ON SUNDAY
BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OUT
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LIKELY FUELING AN ELEVATED MCS THAT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY NORTHWEST OF
THE MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO KEEP SOME 30 POPS GOING OUT IN THE NW CWA
LATE TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SKY
COVER TRENDS AS THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DECOUPLED...WHICH WILL LEAVE WRN WI
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WE LIKE WHAT THE DAY
SHIFT HAD FOR STORM TIMING AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
"DEFINITE" THUNDERSTORMS AND A "CHANCE" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS AS GOOD A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANY OTHER EVENT THIS YEAR...ALBEIT A QUIET
YEAR.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE MID-UPPER JET /50-70KTS/
THAT WILL ACT TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN BETWEEN 00-06Z
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CLASSIC DIFLUENT PATTERN AS EVIDENT BY THE
850-300MB THICKNESS SUNDAY EVENING TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG FGEN
COMING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE WIDESPREAD WITH STORMS ALREADY ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WITH HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF
LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING. WE`RE STARTING TO GET A LOOK AT SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY LOOK SHOWS A COUPLE STRONG LINE
SEGMENTS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...BRINGING SBCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG IN MN. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS TO BOTH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS RUNS SHOW A GOOD NUMBER OF SEVERE REPORTS WHEN LOOKING AT
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. THE NUMBER OF DAMAGING WIND REPORTS
IMMEDIATELY JUMPED OUT AT US. THIS WOULD ALSO MATCH WHAT`S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THERE
WAS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF TORNADO REPORTS ON A FEW ANALOGS...WHICH
IS LIKELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECASTED STRONG LLJ
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW COULD REMAIN
BACKED IN EASTERN MN DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO WE MIGHT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT A FEW KINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES AND WEAK TORNADO
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND
SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS
FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT
WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
ARE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO ANY ORGANIZED FORCING OR
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT REMOVING THE
THUNDER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
HAS DECREASED A BIT THIS EVENING AS CIGS STILL REMAIN LARGELY IN
THE VFR RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN. STILL THINK CIGS WILL
LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT PUSHED BACK THE TIMING AND
EASED THE IMPACTS A BIT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WI AND
ERN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

KMSP...MSP HAS BEEN IN AN ISOLATED SPOT WITH IFR CIGS FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BEFORE CIGS DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH IFR/+TSRA LIKELY LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 300519 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE ACROSS
EC/SC MN BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA HAS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH HAS
ENHANCED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SW MN SINCE 1 PM
/HINT INCREASING CONVECTION/. HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
WI...AS SUNSHINE OCCURRED...HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. WX/POPS REFLECT THE CURRENT TREND OF THE
HRRR/HOPWRF AS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EC MN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHEARS OUT AND
MOVE TO THE NE...THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WC WI BY
MID/LATE EVENING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN EC/SC MN
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFT SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST THRU SUNSET. SFC
WINDS BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG/LOW CLDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAINFALL ENDED. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WITH NARROW
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION IN TANDEM SAT NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY BENIGN 12-HOUR PERIOD WITH MOCLR SKIES AHEAD
OF WHAT MAY BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS SAT AND IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL WORK
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT
AXIS OFF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE ROCKIES SUN WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRAB THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SHOVE IT NEWD FROM NRN WYOMING ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN BY SUN
EVE...DRAGGING A CDFNT INTO CENTRAL-SRN MN. A WMFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NWD DURG THE DAY ON
SUN...ALLOWING A STRONG SURGE OF BOTH WARMER AIR /MID-80S FOR
HIGHS/ AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...HELPING INCRS
PWATS /TO OVER 1.25 INCHES/ AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS /MUCAPES
OVER 2500 J/KG/. EVEN ANY ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE N...MAKING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN POTENTIALLY DEVOID
OF PRECIP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY BECOME SFC-BASED IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTN HOURS. BEST TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS TO
BE 21Z-00Z IN WRN MN...THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ERN MN INTO WRN WI
00Z-06Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED... POSSIBLY EVEN SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF
A MCS OR QLCS WHEN LATE DAY AND EVENING JETTING INCRS. THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO FEATURE THE HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...NOT SO MUCH TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE CDFNT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MN AND MUCH OF WRN WI BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG...BRINGING THIS
EVENT TO A CLOSE WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A WEAK QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK... GIVING MORE OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WED INTO THU...AS OPPOSED TO MON-TUE WHICH WILL BE
MORE OF THE ISOLD POP-UP VARIETY WITH LITTLE STRENGTH. IMPROVED
COVERAGE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED WED-THU WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE BUCKLES WITHIN THE PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW...BUT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS. TEMPS
COOL DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CDFNT MON...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-70S BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SURGES N WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
HAS DECREASED A BIT THIS EVENING AS CIGS STILL REMAIN LARGELY IN
THE VFR RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN. STILL THINK CIGS WILL
LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT PUSHED BACK THE TIMING AND
EASED THE IMPACTS A BIT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WI AND
ERN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

KMSP...MSP HAS BEEN IN AN ISOLATED SPOT WITH IFR CIGS FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BEFORE CIGS DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH IFR/+TSRA LIKELY LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 300519 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE ACROSS
EC/SC MN BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA HAS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH HAS
ENHANCED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SW MN SINCE 1 PM
/HINT INCREASING CONVECTION/. HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
WI...AS SUNSHINE OCCURRED...HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. WX/POPS REFLECT THE CURRENT TREND OF THE
HRRR/HOPWRF AS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EC MN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHEARS OUT AND
MOVE TO THE NE...THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WC WI BY
MID/LATE EVENING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN EC/SC MN
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFT SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST THRU SUNSET. SFC
WINDS BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG/LOW CLDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAINFALL ENDED. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WITH NARROW
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION IN TANDEM SAT NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY BENIGN 12-HOUR PERIOD WITH MOCLR SKIES AHEAD
OF WHAT MAY BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS SAT AND IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL WORK
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT
AXIS OFF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE ROCKIES SUN WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRAB THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SHOVE IT NEWD FROM NRN WYOMING ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN BY SUN
EVE...DRAGGING A CDFNT INTO CENTRAL-SRN MN. A WMFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NWD DURG THE DAY ON
SUN...ALLOWING A STRONG SURGE OF BOTH WARMER AIR /MID-80S FOR
HIGHS/ AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...HELPING INCRS
PWATS /TO OVER 1.25 INCHES/ AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS /MUCAPES
OVER 2500 J/KG/. EVEN ANY ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE N...MAKING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN POTENTIALLY DEVOID
OF PRECIP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY BECOME SFC-BASED IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTN HOURS. BEST TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS TO
BE 21Z-00Z IN WRN MN...THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ERN MN INTO WRN WI
00Z-06Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED... POSSIBLY EVEN SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF
A MCS OR QLCS WHEN LATE DAY AND EVENING JETTING INCRS. THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO FEATURE THE HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...NOT SO MUCH TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE CDFNT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MN AND MUCH OF WRN WI BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG...BRINGING THIS
EVENT TO A CLOSE WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A WEAK QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK... GIVING MORE OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WED INTO THU...AS OPPOSED TO MON-TUE WHICH WILL BE
MORE OF THE ISOLD POP-UP VARIETY WITH LITTLE STRENGTH. IMPROVED
COVERAGE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED WED-THU WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE BUCKLES WITHIN THE PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW...BUT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS. TEMPS
COOL DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CDFNT MON...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-70S BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SURGES N WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
HAS DECREASED A BIT THIS EVENING AS CIGS STILL REMAIN LARGELY IN
THE VFR RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN. STILL THINK CIGS WILL
LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT PUSHED BACK THE TIMING AND
EASED THE IMPACTS A BIT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WI AND
ERN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

KMSP...MSP HAS BEEN IN AN ISOLATED SPOT WITH IFR CIGS FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BEFORE CIGS DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH IFR/+TSRA LIKELY LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 300006 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE ACROSS
EC/SC MN BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA HAS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH HAS
ENHANCED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SW MN SINCE 1 PM
/HINT INCREASING CONVECTION/. HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
WI...AS SUNSHINE OCCURRED...HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. WX/POPS REFLECT THE CURRENT TREND OF THE
HRRR/HOPWRF AS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EC MN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHEARS OUT AND
MOVE TO THE NE...THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WC WI BY
MID/LATE EVENING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN EC/SC MN
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFT SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST THRU SUNSET. SFC
WINDS BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG/LOW CLDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAINFALL ENDED. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WITH NARROW
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION IN TANDEM SAT NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY BENIGN 12-HOUR PERIOD WITH MOCLR SKIES AHEAD
OF WHAT MAY BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS SAT AND IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL WORK
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT
AXIS OFF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE ROCKIES SUN WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRAB THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SHOVE IT NEWD FROM NRN WYOMING ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN BY SUN
EVE...DRAGGING A CDFNT INTO CENTRAL-SRN MN. A WMFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NWD DURG THE DAY ON
SUN...ALLOWING A STRONG SURGE OF BOTH WARMER AIR /MID-80S FOR
HIGHS/ AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...HELPING INCRS
PWATS /TO OVER 1.25 INCHES/ AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS /MUCAPES
OVER 2500 J/KG/. EVEN ANY ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE N...MAKING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN POTENTIALLY DEVOID
OF PRECIP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY BECOME SFC-BASED IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTN HOURS. BEST TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS TO
BE 21Z-00Z IN WRN MN...THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ERN MN INTO WRN WI
00Z-06Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED... POSSIBLY EVEN SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF
A MCS OR QLCS WHEN LATE DAY AND EVENING JETTING INCRS. THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO FEATURE THE HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...NOT SO MUCH TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE CDFNT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MN AND MUCH OF WRN WI BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG...BRINGING THIS
EVENT TO A CLOSE WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A WEAK QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK... GIVING MORE OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WED INTO THU...AS OPPOSED TO MON-TUE WHICH WILL BE
MORE OF THE ISOLD POP-UP VARIETY WITH LITTLE STRENGTH. IMPROVED
COVERAGE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED WED-THU WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE BUCKLES WITHIN THE PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW...BUT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS. TEMPS
COOL DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CDFNT MON...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-70S BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SURGES N WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO CENTRAL
WI...BUT A FEW CELLS REMAIN NEAR EAU. OTHERWISE...A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM MSP TO RWF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. SOME
RAIN MAY FILL IN TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WILL ERODE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08-09Z. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH VFR FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CIGS DROP BACK INTO IFR AND/OR LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH OF THIS OCCURRING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS A BIT
LESS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 300006 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE ACROSS
EC/SC MN BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA HAS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH HAS
ENHANCED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SW MN SINCE 1 PM
/HINT INCREASING CONVECTION/. HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
WI...AS SUNSHINE OCCURRED...HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. WX/POPS REFLECT THE CURRENT TREND OF THE
HRRR/HOPWRF AS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EC MN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHEARS OUT AND
MOVE TO THE NE...THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WC WI BY
MID/LATE EVENING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN EC/SC MN
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFT SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST THRU SUNSET. SFC
WINDS BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG/LOW CLDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAINFALL ENDED. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WITH NARROW
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION IN TANDEM SAT NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY BENIGN 12-HOUR PERIOD WITH MOCLR SKIES AHEAD
OF WHAT MAY BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS SAT AND IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL WORK
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT
AXIS OFF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE ROCKIES SUN WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRAB THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SHOVE IT NEWD FROM NRN WYOMING ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN BY SUN
EVE...DRAGGING A CDFNT INTO CENTRAL-SRN MN. A WMFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NWD DURG THE DAY ON
SUN...ALLOWING A STRONG SURGE OF BOTH WARMER AIR /MID-80S FOR
HIGHS/ AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...HELPING INCRS
PWATS /TO OVER 1.25 INCHES/ AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS /MUCAPES
OVER 2500 J/KG/. EVEN ANY ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE N...MAKING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN POTENTIALLY DEVOID
OF PRECIP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY BECOME SFC-BASED IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTN HOURS. BEST TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS TO
BE 21Z-00Z IN WRN MN...THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ERN MN INTO WRN WI
00Z-06Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED... POSSIBLY EVEN SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF
A MCS OR QLCS WHEN LATE DAY AND EVENING JETTING INCRS. THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO FEATURE THE HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...NOT SO MUCH TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE CDFNT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MN AND MUCH OF WRN WI BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG...BRINGING THIS
EVENT TO A CLOSE WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A WEAK QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK... GIVING MORE OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WED INTO THU...AS OPPOSED TO MON-TUE WHICH WILL BE
MORE OF THE ISOLD POP-UP VARIETY WITH LITTLE STRENGTH. IMPROVED
COVERAGE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED WED-THU WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE BUCKLES WITHIN THE PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW...BUT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS. TEMPS
COOL DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CDFNT MON...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-70S BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SURGES N WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO CENTRAL
WI...BUT A FEW CELLS REMAIN NEAR EAU. OTHERWISE...A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM MSP TO RWF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. SOME
RAIN MAY FILL IN TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WILL ERODE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08-09Z. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH VFR FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CIGS DROP BACK INTO IFR AND/OR LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH OF THIS OCCURRING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS A BIT
LESS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WINDS WSW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 291957
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE ACROSS
EC/SC MN BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA HAS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH HAS
ENHANCED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SW MN SINCE 1 PM
/HINT INCREASING CONVECTION/. HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
WI...AS SUNSHINE OCCURRED...HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. WX/POPS REFLECT THE CURRENT TREND OF THE
HRRR/HOPWRF AS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EC MN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHEARS OUT AND
MOVE TO THE NE...THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WC WI BY
MID/LATE EVENING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN EC/SC MN
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFT SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST THRU SUNSET. SFC
WINDS BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG/LOW CLDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAINFALL ENDED. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WITH NARROW
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION IN TANDEM SAT NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY BENIGN 12-HOUR PERIOD WITH MOCLR SKIES AHEAD
OF WHAT MAY BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS SAT AND IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL WORK
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT
AXIS OFF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE ROCKIES SUN WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRAB THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SHOVE IT NEWD FROM NRN WYOMING ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN BY SUN
EVE...DRAGGING A CDFNT INTO CENTRAL-SRN MN. A WMFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NWD DURG THE DAY ON
SUN...ALLOWING A STRONG SURGE OF BOTH WARMER AIR /MID-80S FOR
HIGHS/ AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...HELPING INCRS
PWATS /TO OVER 1.25 INCHES/ AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS /MUCAPES
OVER 2500 J/KG/. EVEN ANY ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE N...MAKING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN POTENTIALLY DEVOID
OF PRECIP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY BECOME SFC-BASED IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTN HOURS. BEST TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS TO
BE 21Z-00Z IN WRN MN...THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ERN MN INTO WRN WI
00Z-06Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED... POSSIBLY EVEN SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF
A MCS OR QLCS WHEN LATE DAY AND EVENING JETTING INCRS. THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO FEATURE THE HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...NOT SO MUCH TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE CDFNT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MN AND MUCH OF WRN WI BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG...BRINGING THIS
EVENT TO A CLOSE WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A WEAK QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK... GIVING MORE OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WED INTO THU...AS OPPOSED TO MON-TUE WHICH WILL BE
MORE OF THE ISOLD POP-UP VARIETY WITH LITTLE STRENGTH. IMPROVED
COVERAGE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED WED-THU WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE BUCKLES WITHIN THE PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW...BUT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS. TEMPS
COOL DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CDFNT MON...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-70S BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SURGES N WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST OF MPX TAF AREA THRU THE
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN WHERE THE SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED
THRU AS OF 17Z. AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR KOMA WILL
LIKELY HOLD THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES NE ACROSS NC IA/SE MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
CONTINUATION OF SHRA/TSRA FROM KRWF TO KSTC...EASTWARD TOWARD EC
MN/WC WI THRU THE AFTN. TIMING OF HEAVIER TSRA WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS WITH 2SM +TSRA.
ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES...IT
SHOULD BE VERY SHORT AND LAST 5 TO 10 MINS. MORE MODERATE
SHRA/TSRA WILL MEAN PERIODS OF 2-3SM WITH A PREDOMINATE 4-6SM IN
LIGHTER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO WC WI
BY 23-01Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WITH A WEAK WEST/NW FLOW BEHIND IT THRU THIS EVENING. A
MORE NW/NNW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING ARND 5-10 KTS.

KMSP...

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED TREND OF SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA THRU THE AFTN. NOT UNTIL THE SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH. TIMING OF THE HEAVIER TSRA REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO OF 2SM +TSRA DURING THE AFTN. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD ONLY LAST 5
TO 10 MINS. MOST OF THE STEADIER SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MSP
TERMINAL AREA BY 1-3Z WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW THIS AFTN ARND 5-10 KTS...THEN
WEAKEN AND VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT AFTN...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 291957
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE ACROSS
EC/SC MN BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA HAS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH HAS
ENHANCED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SW MN SINCE 1 PM
/HINT INCREASING CONVECTION/. HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
WI...AS SUNSHINE OCCURRED...HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. WX/POPS REFLECT THE CURRENT TREND OF THE
HRRR/HOPWRF AS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EC MN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHEARS OUT AND
MOVE TO THE NE...THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WC WI BY
MID/LATE EVENING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN EC/SC MN
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFT SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST THRU SUNSET. SFC
WINDS BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG/LOW CLDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAINFALL ENDED. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WITH NARROW
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION IN TANDEM SAT NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY BENIGN 12-HOUR PERIOD WITH MOCLR SKIES AHEAD
OF WHAT MAY BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS SAT AND IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL WORK
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT
AXIS OFF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE ROCKIES SUN WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRAB THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SHOVE IT NEWD FROM NRN WYOMING ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN BY SUN
EVE...DRAGGING A CDFNT INTO CENTRAL-SRN MN. A WMFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NWD DURG THE DAY ON
SUN...ALLOWING A STRONG SURGE OF BOTH WARMER AIR /MID-80S FOR
HIGHS/ AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...HELPING INCRS
PWATS /TO OVER 1.25 INCHES/ AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS /MUCAPES
OVER 2500 J/KG/. EVEN ANY ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE N...MAKING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN POTENTIALLY DEVOID
OF PRECIP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY BECOME SFC-BASED IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTN HOURS. BEST TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS TO
BE 21Z-00Z IN WRN MN...THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ERN MN INTO WRN WI
00Z-06Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED... POSSIBLY EVEN SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF
A MCS OR QLCS WHEN LATE DAY AND EVENING JETTING INCRS. THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO FEATURE THE HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...NOT SO MUCH TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE CDFNT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MN AND MUCH OF WRN WI BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG...BRINGING THIS
EVENT TO A CLOSE WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A WEAK QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK... GIVING MORE OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WED INTO THU...AS OPPOSED TO MON-TUE WHICH WILL BE
MORE OF THE ISOLD POP-UP VARIETY WITH LITTLE STRENGTH. IMPROVED
COVERAGE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED WED-THU WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE BUCKLES WITHIN THE PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW...BUT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS. TEMPS
COOL DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CDFNT MON...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-70S BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SURGES N WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST OF MPX TAF AREA THRU THE
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN WHERE THE SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED
THRU AS OF 17Z. AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR KOMA WILL
LIKELY HOLD THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES NE ACROSS NC IA/SE MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
CONTINUATION OF SHRA/TSRA FROM KRWF TO KSTC...EASTWARD TOWARD EC
MN/WC WI THRU THE AFTN. TIMING OF HEAVIER TSRA WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS WITH 2SM +TSRA.
ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES...IT
SHOULD BE VERY SHORT AND LAST 5 TO 10 MINS. MORE MODERATE
SHRA/TSRA WILL MEAN PERIODS OF 2-3SM WITH A PREDOMINATE 4-6SM IN
LIGHTER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO WC WI
BY 23-01Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WITH A WEAK WEST/NW FLOW BEHIND IT THRU THIS EVENING. A
MORE NW/NNW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING ARND 5-10 KTS.

KMSP...

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED TREND OF SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA THRU THE AFTN. NOT UNTIL THE SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH. TIMING OF THE HEAVIER TSRA REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO OF 2SM +TSRA DURING THE AFTN. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD ONLY LAST 5
TO 10 MINS. MOST OF THE STEADIER SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MSP
TERMINAL AREA BY 1-3Z WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW THIS AFTN ARND 5-10 KTS...THEN
WEAKEN AND VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT AFTN...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 291709
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RATHER UGLY MORNING OUT THERE IN TERMS OF AVIATION...WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STARTING TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH INTO MN AND AT 3 AM WAS NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. BESIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-30 KT SWRLY LLJ
HAS ALLOWED FOR AN AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AND FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY TO TIME THIS MORNINGS
BATCH OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA BY 15Z...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
EXPECTED UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A RATHER MESSY SFC
PATTERN AS THE MESO LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SIOUX FALLS WASHES OUT OVER
MN AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL BACK
ACROSS WRN NODAK. BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN FROM THE 28.12 TO THE 29.00
MODEL RUNS WAS A WHOLESALE SLOWING OF THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER POPS BEING PUSHED BACK WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE WAS MAINLY GOING TO BE A
SHOW FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 IS NOW MORE OF AN ALONG/EAST OF A
ST. CLOUD TO FAIRMONT LINE. THE HI-RES MODELS THAT LOOK TO ADHERE
TO WHAT IS SEEN FORCING WISE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE BEST
ARE THE 29.00 NMM AND MPX WRFS...WHICH BOTH SHOW STORMS FORMING WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 19-21Z AND MOVING EAST FROM THERE AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED...IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI AS
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF I-35 CONGEALS INTO A BROADER
MASS EAST OF I-35.

STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
EITHER...AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE EXTENSIVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WE SEE BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...FURTHER POINTING TO
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LACKING WHEN IT COMES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. BESIDE THE INSTABILITY...THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER DIFFUSE...WITH NO CLEAR FOCUS EXISTING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY /SEE FRONT SUNDAY FOR A CLEAR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/. WITH THAT SAID...BULK SHEAR WILL BE UP IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR TWO TO PULSE UP ENOUGH TO POSE AN ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREAT TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...THERE IS ADMITTEDLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THAT IS PREDICATED ON CLOUD
COVER BEING DOMINATE TODAY. IF WE INSTEAD GET SOME DECENT SUN BEFORE
STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT TO THE EAST...WITH TO MUCH LEFT OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE IN WRN
WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SFC THROUGH/FRONT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR EARLY ON LABOR DAY...LEAVING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATION`S MID SECTION IS
ALREADY AN ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED PV FEATURE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET STRUCTURE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 500MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
BETWEEN 80-100M SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...850-700MB FGEN INCREASES IN WESTERN MN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. A SLOWLY DEEPENING AND
EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE PRODUCES 4-6MB 6-HR MSLP PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...IN FACT...STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH
HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO MULTI-CELL
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /EVEN IF THEY EXIST IN LINES/. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. IT
LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES IN WI GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST OF MPX TAF AREA THRU THE AFTN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN WHERE THE SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED THRU AS
OF 17Z. AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR KOMA WILL LIKELY HOLD
THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NE ACROSS NC IA/SE MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM KRWF TO KSTC...EASTWARD TOWARD EC MN/WC WI THRU
THE AFTN. TIMING OF HEAVIER TSRA WILL BE PROBLEMATIC SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPO PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS WITH 2SM +TSRA. ALTHOUGH
VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES...IT SHOULD BE
VERY SHORT AND LAST 5 TO 10 MINS. MORE MODERATE SHRA/TSRA WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF 2-3SM WITH A PREDOMINATE 4-6SM IN LIGHTER
ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO WC WI BY
23-01Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WITH A WEAK WEST/NW FLOW BEHIND IT THRU THIS EVENING. A
MORE NW/NNW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING ARND 5-10 KTS.

KMSP...

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED TREND OF SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA THRU THE AFTN. NOT UNTIL THE SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH. TIMING OF THE HEAVIER TSRA REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO OF 2SM +TSRA DURING THE AFTN. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD ONLY LAST 5
TO 10 MINS. MOST OF THE STEADIER SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MSP
TERMINAL AREA BY 1-3Z WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW THIS AFTN ARND 5-10 KTS...THEN
WEAKEN AND VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT AFTN...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 291709
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RATHER UGLY MORNING OUT THERE IN TERMS OF AVIATION...WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STARTING TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH INTO MN AND AT 3 AM WAS NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. BESIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-30 KT SWRLY LLJ
HAS ALLOWED FOR AN AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AND FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY TO TIME THIS MORNINGS
BATCH OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA BY 15Z...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
EXPECTED UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A RATHER MESSY SFC
PATTERN AS THE MESO LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SIOUX FALLS WASHES OUT OVER
MN AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL BACK
ACROSS WRN NODAK. BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN FROM THE 28.12 TO THE 29.00
MODEL RUNS WAS A WHOLESALE SLOWING OF THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER POPS BEING PUSHED BACK WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE WAS MAINLY GOING TO BE A
SHOW FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 IS NOW MORE OF AN ALONG/EAST OF A
ST. CLOUD TO FAIRMONT LINE. THE HI-RES MODELS THAT LOOK TO ADHERE
TO WHAT IS SEEN FORCING WISE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE BEST
ARE THE 29.00 NMM AND MPX WRFS...WHICH BOTH SHOW STORMS FORMING WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 19-21Z AND MOVING EAST FROM THERE AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED...IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI AS
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF I-35 CONGEALS INTO A BROADER
MASS EAST OF I-35.

STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
EITHER...AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE EXTENSIVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WE SEE BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...FURTHER POINTING TO
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LACKING WHEN IT COMES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. BESIDE THE INSTABILITY...THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER DIFFUSE...WITH NO CLEAR FOCUS EXISTING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY /SEE FRONT SUNDAY FOR A CLEAR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/. WITH THAT SAID...BULK SHEAR WILL BE UP IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR TWO TO PULSE UP ENOUGH TO POSE AN ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREAT TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...THERE IS ADMITTEDLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THAT IS PREDICATED ON CLOUD
COVER BEING DOMINATE TODAY. IF WE INSTEAD GET SOME DECENT SUN BEFORE
STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT TO THE EAST...WITH TO MUCH LEFT OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE IN WRN
WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SFC THROUGH/FRONT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR EARLY ON LABOR DAY...LEAVING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATION`S MID SECTION IS
ALREADY AN ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED PV FEATURE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET STRUCTURE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 500MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
BETWEEN 80-100M SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...850-700MB FGEN INCREASES IN WESTERN MN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. A SLOWLY DEEPENING AND
EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE PRODUCES 4-6MB 6-HR MSLP PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...IN FACT...STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH
HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO MULTI-CELL
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /EVEN IF THEY EXIST IN LINES/. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. IT
LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES IN WI GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST OF MPX TAF AREA THRU THE AFTN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN WHERE THE SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED THRU AS
OF 17Z. AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR KOMA WILL LIKELY HOLD
THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NE ACROSS NC IA/SE MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM KRWF TO KSTC...EASTWARD TOWARD EC MN/WC WI THRU
THE AFTN. TIMING OF HEAVIER TSRA WILL BE PROBLEMATIC SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPO PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS WITH 2SM +TSRA. ALTHOUGH
VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES...IT SHOULD BE
VERY SHORT AND LAST 5 TO 10 MINS. MORE MODERATE SHRA/TSRA WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF 2-3SM WITH A PREDOMINATE 4-6SM IN LIGHTER
ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO WC WI BY
23-01Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WITH A WEAK WEST/NW FLOW BEHIND IT THRU THIS EVENING. A
MORE NW/NNW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING ARND 5-10 KTS.

KMSP...

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED TREND OF SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA THRU THE AFTN. NOT UNTIL THE SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH. TIMING OF THE HEAVIER TSRA REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO OF 2SM +TSRA DURING THE AFTN. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD ONLY LAST 5
TO 10 MINS. MOST OF THE STEADIER SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MSP
TERMINAL AREA BY 1-3Z WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW THIS AFTN ARND 5-10 KTS...THEN
WEAKEN AND VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT AFTN...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTN WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 291114
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RATHER UGLY MORNING OUT THERE IN TERMS OF AVIATION...WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STARTING TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH INTO MN AND AT 3 AM WAS NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. BESIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-30 KT SWRLY LLJ
HAS ALLOWED FOR AN AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AND FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY TO TIME THIS MORNINGS
BATCH OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA BY 15Z...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
EXPECTED UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A RATHER MESSY SFC
PATTERN AS THE MESO LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SIOUX FALLS WASHES OUT OVER
MN AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL BACK
ACROSS WRN NODAK. BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN FROM THE 28.12 TO THE 29.00
MODEL RUNS WAS A WHOLESALE SLOWING OF THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER POPS BEING PUSHED BACK WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE WAS MAINLY GOING TO BE A
SHOW FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 IS NOW MORE OF AN ALONG/EAST OF A
ST. CLOUD TO FAIRMONT LINE. THE HI-RES MODELS THAT LOOK TO ADHERE
TO WHAT IS SEEN FORCING WISE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE BEST
ARE THE 29.00 NMM AND MPX WRFS...WHICH BOTH SHOW STORMS FORMING WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 19-21Z AND MOVING EAST FROM THERE AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED...IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI AS
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF I-35 CONGEALS INTO A BROADER
MASS EAST OF I-35.

STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
EITHER...AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE EXTENSIVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WE SEE BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...FURTHER POINTING TO
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LACKING WHEN IT COMES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. BESIDE THE INSTABILITY...THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER DIFFUSE...WITH NO CLEAR FOCUS EXISTING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY /SEE FRONT SUNDAY FOR A CLEAR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/. WITH THAT SAID...BULK SHEAR WILL BE UP IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR TWO TO PULSE UP ENOUGH TO POSE AN ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREAT TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...THERE IS ADMITTEDLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THAT IS PREDICATED ON CLOUD
COVER BEING DOMINATE TODAY. IF WE INSTEAD GET SOME DECENT SUN BEFORE
STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT TO THE EAST...WITH TO MUCH LEFT OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE IN WRN
WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SFC THROUGH/FRONT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR EARLY ON LABOR DAY...LEAVING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATION`S MID SECTION IS
ALREADY AN ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED PV FEATURE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET STRUCTURE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 500MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
BETWEEN 80-100M SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...850-700MB FGEN INCREASES IN WESTERN MN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. A SLOWLY DEEPENING AND
EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE PRODUCES 4-6MB 6-HR MSLP PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...IN FACT...STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH
HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO MULTI-CELL
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /EVEN IF THEY EXIST IN LINES/. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. IT
LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES IN WI GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE RAP CAUGHT ON TO THE VFR CONDITIONS MOVING NORTH OUT OF
SOUTHERN MN PRETTY QUICK THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED IT/S IDEA FOR
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS UP INTO ERN MN/WRN WI. WITH THE SFC LOW
MOVING INTO SW MN...WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR AXN TO SEE
IMPROVEMENTS. FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED THE TRENDS OF
HRRR/MPXWRF/NMMWRF...WHICH ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z NEAR/EAST OF A RWF TO STC LINE AND MOVE EAST
FROM THERE. BEHIND THE AFTERNOON STORMS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND ITS DRY AIR STILL HUNG
UP NORTHWEST OF THE MPX CWA. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH VLIFR/LIFR CIGS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL WINDS...STRATUS IS MOST
LIKELY IN MN...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH IN WRN WI TO LEAD TO
HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FOG AT RNH/EAU.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH LOOK TO BE HERE TO
STAY FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
CIGS FILL BACK IN ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...SO WILL KEEP CIGS VFR
UNTIL TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON IS LOOKING
SLOWER IN GETTING HERE...ALLOWING CONFIDENCE TO BE QUITE HIGH IN
MSP SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...AGAIN
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR STRATUS...JUST A
QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY DOES IT COME IN AND HOW LOW DOES IT GO.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTNOON WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KMPX 291114
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RATHER UGLY MORNING OUT THERE IN TERMS OF AVIATION...WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STARTING TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH INTO MN AND AT 3 AM WAS NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. BESIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-30 KT SWRLY LLJ
HAS ALLOWED FOR AN AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AND FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY TO TIME THIS MORNINGS
BATCH OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA BY 15Z...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
EXPECTED UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A RATHER MESSY SFC
PATTERN AS THE MESO LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SIOUX FALLS WASHES OUT OVER
MN AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL BACK
ACROSS WRN NODAK. BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN FROM THE 28.12 TO THE 29.00
MODEL RUNS WAS A WHOLESALE SLOWING OF THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER POPS BEING PUSHED BACK WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE WAS MAINLY GOING TO BE A
SHOW FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 IS NOW MORE OF AN ALONG/EAST OF A
ST. CLOUD TO FAIRMONT LINE. THE HI-RES MODELS THAT LOOK TO ADHERE
TO WHAT IS SEEN FORCING WISE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE BEST
ARE THE 29.00 NMM AND MPX WRFS...WHICH BOTH SHOW STORMS FORMING WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 19-21Z AND MOVING EAST FROM THERE AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED...IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI AS
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF I-35 CONGEALS INTO A BROADER
MASS EAST OF I-35.

STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
EITHER...AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE EXTENSIVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WE SEE BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...FURTHER POINTING TO
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LACKING WHEN IT COMES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. BESIDE THE INSTABILITY...THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER DIFFUSE...WITH NO CLEAR FOCUS EXISTING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY /SEE FRONT SUNDAY FOR A CLEAR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/. WITH THAT SAID...BULK SHEAR WILL BE UP IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR TWO TO PULSE UP ENOUGH TO POSE AN ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREAT TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...THERE IS ADMITTEDLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THAT IS PREDICATED ON CLOUD
COVER BEING DOMINATE TODAY. IF WE INSTEAD GET SOME DECENT SUN BEFORE
STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT TO THE EAST...WITH TO MUCH LEFT OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE IN WRN
WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SFC THROUGH/FRONT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR EARLY ON LABOR DAY...LEAVING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATION`S MID SECTION IS
ALREADY AN ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED PV FEATURE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET STRUCTURE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 500MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
BETWEEN 80-100M SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...850-700MB FGEN INCREASES IN WESTERN MN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. A SLOWLY DEEPENING AND
EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE PRODUCES 4-6MB 6-HR MSLP PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...IN FACT...STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH
HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO MULTI-CELL
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /EVEN IF THEY EXIST IN LINES/. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. IT
LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES IN WI GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE RAP CAUGHT ON TO THE VFR CONDITIONS MOVING NORTH OUT OF
SOUTHERN MN PRETTY QUICK THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED IT/S IDEA FOR
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS UP INTO ERN MN/WRN WI. WITH THE SFC LOW
MOVING INTO SW MN...WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR AXN TO SEE
IMPROVEMENTS. FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED THE TRENDS OF
HRRR/MPXWRF/NMMWRF...WHICH ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z NEAR/EAST OF A RWF TO STC LINE AND MOVE EAST
FROM THERE. BEHIND THE AFTERNOON STORMS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND ITS DRY AIR STILL HUNG
UP NORTHWEST OF THE MPX CWA. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH VLIFR/LIFR CIGS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL WINDS...STRATUS IS MOST
LIKELY IN MN...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH IN WRN WI TO LEAD TO
HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FOG AT RNH/EAU.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH LOOK TO BE HERE TO
STAY FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
CIGS FILL BACK IN ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...SO WILL KEEP CIGS VFR
UNTIL TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON IS LOOKING
SLOWER IN GETTING HERE...ALLOWING CONFIDENCE TO BE QUITE HIGH IN
MSP SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...AGAIN
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR STRATUS...JUST A
QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY DOES IT COME IN AND HOW LOW DOES IT GO.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTNOON WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 290931
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RATHER UGLY MORNING OUT THERE IN TERMS OF AVIATION...WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STARTING TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH INTO MN AND AT 3 AM WAS NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. BESIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-30 KT SWRLY LLJ
HAS ALLOWED FOR AN AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AND FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY TO TIME THIS MORNINGS
BATCH OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA BY 15Z...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
EXPECTED UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A RATHER MESSY SFC
PATTERN AS THE MESO LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SIOUX FALLS WASHES OUT OVER
MN AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL BACK
ACROSS WRN NODAK. BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN FROM THE 28.12 TO THE 29.00
MODEL RUNS WAS A WHOLESALE SLOWING OF THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER POPS BEING PUSHED BACK WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE WAS MAINLY GOING TO BE A
SHOW FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 IS NOW MORE OF AN ALONG/EAST OF A
ST. CLOUD TO FAIRMONT LINE. THE HI-RES MODELS THAT LOOK TO ADHERE
TO WHAT IS SEEN FORCING WISE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE BEST
ARE THE 29.00 NMM AND MPX WRFS...WHICH BOTH SHOW STORMS FORMING WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 19-21Z AND MOVING EAST FROM THERE AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED...IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI AS
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF I-35 CONGEALS INTO A BROADER
MASS EAST OF I-35.

STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
EITHER...AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE EXTENSIVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WE SEE BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...FURTHER POINTING TO
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LACKING WHEN IT COMES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. BESIDE THE INSTABILITY...THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER DIFFUSE...WITH NO CLEAR FOCUS EXISTING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY /SEE FRONT SUNDAY FOR A CLEAR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/. WITH THAT SAID...BULK SHEAR WILL BE UP IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR TWO TO PULSE UP ENOUGH TO POSE AN ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREAT TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...THERE IS ADMITTEDLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THAT IS PREDICATED ON CLOUD
COVER BEING DOMINATE TODAY. IF WE INSTEAD GET SOME DECENT SUN BEFORE
STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT TO THE EAST...WITH TO MUCH LEFT OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE IN WRN
WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SFC THROUGH/FRONT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR EARLY ON LABOR DAY...LEAVING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATION`S MID SECTION IS
ALREADY AN ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED PV FEATURE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET STRUCTURE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 500MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
BETWEEN 80-100M SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...850-700MB FGEN INCREASES IN WESTERN MN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. A SLOWLY DEEPENING AND
EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE PRODUCES 4-6MB 6-HR MSLP PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...IN FACT...STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH
HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO MULTCELL
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /EVEN IF THEY EXIST IN LINES/. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. IT
LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES IN WI GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...BUT AM A BIT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CIGS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAINTAINING IFR STATUS THIS
EVENING...BUT SURROUNDING OBS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND BELIEVE
IT WON/T BE TOO MUCH LONGER THAT MSP WILL FINALLY JOIN THE IFR
CLUB. IMPROVEMENTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BY LATE MORNING...BUT AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 290931
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RATHER UGLY MORNING OUT THERE IN TERMS OF AVIATION...WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STARTING TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH INTO MN AND AT 3 AM WAS NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. BESIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-30 KT SWRLY LLJ
HAS ALLOWED FOR AN AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AND FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY TO TIME THIS MORNINGS
BATCH OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA BY 15Z...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
EXPECTED UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A RATHER MESSY SFC
PATTERN AS THE MESO LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SIOUX FALLS WASHES OUT OVER
MN AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL BACK
ACROSS WRN NODAK. BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN FROM THE 28.12 TO THE 29.00
MODEL RUNS WAS A WHOLESALE SLOWING OF THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER POPS BEING PUSHED BACK WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE WAS MAINLY GOING TO BE A
SHOW FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 IS NOW MORE OF AN ALONG/EAST OF A
ST. CLOUD TO FAIRMONT LINE. THE HI-RES MODELS THAT LOOK TO ADHERE
TO WHAT IS SEEN FORCING WISE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE BEST
ARE THE 29.00 NMM AND MPX WRFS...WHICH BOTH SHOW STORMS FORMING WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 19-21Z AND MOVING EAST FROM THERE AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED...IS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI AS
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF I-35 CONGEALS INTO A BROADER
MASS EAST OF I-35.

STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
EITHER...AS CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE EXTENSIVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WE SEE BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...FURTHER POINTING TO
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LACKING WHEN IT COMES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. BESIDE THE INSTABILITY...THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
RATHER DIFFUSE...WITH NO CLEAR FOCUS EXISTING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY /SEE FRONT SUNDAY FOR A CLEAR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/. WITH THAT SAID...BULK SHEAR WILL BE UP IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR TWO TO PULSE UP ENOUGH TO POSE AN ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREAT TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...THERE IS ADMITTEDLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THAT IS PREDICATED ON CLOUD
COVER BEING DOMINATE TODAY. IF WE INSTEAD GET SOME DECENT SUN BEFORE
STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT TO THE EAST...WITH TO MUCH LEFT OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE IN WRN
WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SFC THROUGH/FRONT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR EARLY ON LABOR DAY...LEAVING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUN-MON AND
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATION`S MID SECTION IS
ALREADY AN ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED PV FEATURE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET STRUCTURE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 500MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
BETWEEN 80-100M SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...850-700MB FGEN INCREASES IN WESTERN MN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. A SLOWLY DEEPENING AND
EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE PRODUCES 4-6MB 6-HR MSLP PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...IN FACT...STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ONGOING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH
HEATING AND THE LIKELY ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE LINE SEGMENTS OR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO MULTCELL
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /EVEN IF THEY EXIST IN LINES/. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. IT
LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS MN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 0-3KM SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 25-40KTS FROM 18Z-06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES IN WI GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND...THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...BUT AM A BIT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CIGS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAINTAINING IFR STATUS THIS
EVENING...BUT SURROUNDING OBS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND BELIEVE
IT WON/T BE TOO MUCH LONGER THAT MSP WILL FINALLY JOIN THE IFR
CLUB. IMPROVEMENTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BY LATE MORNING...BUT AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 290500 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RELATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SO
FAR THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE
MODEST...WITH THE LEADING FRONTOGENSIS AND PV ADVECTION RATHER
MEAGER AND LIFTING OUT IN PIECES. FURTHERMORE...ONE HAS TO GO SOUTH
WELL INTO IOWA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT BEFORE FINDING ANY HINT OF
THUNDER. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...AND
EXPECT MORE OF A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE SITUATION WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS TO BETTER DESCRIBE THIS EVENINGS WEATHER...AT LEAST UNTIL
AROUND/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY VALUES WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY
POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...WITH CHANCE POPS /30-50 PERCENT/ TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CULPRIT SHIFTS EAST. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACNW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY DYNAMIC AS IT IS AIDED BY THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET WHILE DRAWING UP SOME GULF MOISTURE. -SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SAT...WHILE MN
GETS JUICED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IN TERMS INCREASING LL
MOISTURE). ONLY ADDING TO THE TSTM SET-UP WILL BE 40-50KT OF BULK
SHEAR (0-6KM) AND A COUPLE THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE BY SUN AFTN.
SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN
THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK...AND BESIDES THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HRS ON SUN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TYPICALLY
THIS MEANS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO SPECIFIC PERIODS OF RAIN TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...BUT AM A BIT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CIGS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAINTAINING IFR STATUS THIS
EVENING...BUT SURROUNDING OBS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND BELIEVE
IT WON/T BE TOO MUCH LONGER THAT MSP WILL FINALLY JOIN THE IFR
CLUB. IMPROVEMENTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BY LATE MORNING...BUT AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 290500 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RELATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SO
FAR THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE
MODEST...WITH THE LEADING FRONTOGENSIS AND PV ADVECTION RATHER
MEAGER AND LIFTING OUT IN PIECES. FURTHERMORE...ONE HAS TO GO SOUTH
WELL INTO IOWA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT BEFORE FINDING ANY HINT OF
THUNDER. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...AND
EXPECT MORE OF A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE SITUATION WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS TO BETTER DESCRIBE THIS EVENINGS WEATHER...AT LEAST UNTIL
AROUND/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY VALUES WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY
POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...WITH CHANCE POPS /30-50 PERCENT/ TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CULPRIT SHIFTS EAST. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACNW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY DYNAMIC AS IT IS AIDED BY THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET WHILE DRAWING UP SOME GULF MOISTURE. -SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SAT...WHILE MN
GETS JUICED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IN TERMS INCREASING LL
MOISTURE). ONLY ADDING TO THE TSTM SET-UP WILL BE 40-50KT OF BULK
SHEAR (0-6KM) AND A COUPLE THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE BY SUN AFTN.
SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN
THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK...AND BESIDES THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HRS ON SUN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TYPICALLY
THIS MEANS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO SPECIFIC PERIODS OF RAIN TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...BUT AM A BIT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CIGS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAINTAINING IFR STATUS THIS
EVENING...BUT SURROUNDING OBS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND BELIEVE
IT WON/T BE TOO MUCH LONGER THAT MSP WILL FINALLY JOIN THE IFR
CLUB. IMPROVEMENTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BY LATE MORNING...BUT AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281957
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RELATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SO
FAR THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE
MODEST...WITH THE LEADING FRONTOGENSIS AND PV ADVECTION RATHER
MEAGER AND LIFTING OUT IN PIECES. FURTHERMORE...ONE HAS TO GO SOUTH
WELL INTO IOWA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT BEFORE FINDING ANY HINT OF
THUNDER. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...AND
EXPECT MORE OF A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE SITUATION WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS TO BETTER DESCRIBE THIS EVENINGS WEATHER...AT LEAST UNTIL
AROUND/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY VALUES WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY
POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...WITH CHANCE POPS /30-50 PERCENT/ TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CULPRIT SHIFTS EAST. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACNW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY DYNAMIC AS IT IS AIDED BY THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET WHILE DRAWING UP SOME GULF MOISTURE. -SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SAT...WHILE MN
GETS JUICED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IN TERMS INCREASING LL
MOISTURE). ONLY ADDING TO THE TSTM SET-UP WILL BE 40-50KT OF BULK
SHEAR (0-6KM) AND A COUPLE THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE BY SUN AFTN.
SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN
THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK...AND BESIDES THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HRS ON SUN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TYPICALLY
THIS MEANS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO SPECIFIC PERIODS OF RAIN TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIG/VSBY DEGRADATION TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
WILL LAG PRECIPITATION ONSET AT SITES BY A FEW HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE NOTABLE CIG REDUCTION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH PREVALENT IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR VSBYS. LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SITES /KMSP-KRNH-
KEAU/. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 7-14KTS TODAY VEER TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

KMSP... PRECIP SHOULD SNEAK INTO KMSP BETWEEN 19Z AND
20Z...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOW. CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR THIS EVE THEN IFR BY 06Z.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 281957
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RELATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SO
FAR THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE
MODEST...WITH THE LEADING FRONTOGENSIS AND PV ADVECTION RATHER
MEAGER AND LIFTING OUT IN PIECES. FURTHERMORE...ONE HAS TO GO SOUTH
WELL INTO IOWA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT BEFORE FINDING ANY HINT OF
THUNDER. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...AND
EXPECT MORE OF A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE SITUATION WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS TO BETTER DESCRIBE THIS EVENINGS WEATHER...AT LEAST UNTIL
AROUND/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY VALUES WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY
POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...WITH CHANCE POPS /30-50 PERCENT/ TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CULPRIT SHIFTS EAST. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACNW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY DYNAMIC AS IT IS AIDED BY THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET WHILE DRAWING UP SOME GULF MOISTURE. -SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SAT...WHILE MN
GETS JUICED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IN TERMS INCREASING LL
MOISTURE). ONLY ADDING TO THE TSTM SET-UP WILL BE 40-50KT OF BULK
SHEAR (0-6KM) AND A COUPLE THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE BY SUN AFTN.
SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN
THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK...AND BESIDES THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HRS ON SUN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TYPICALLY
THIS MEANS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO SPECIFIC PERIODS OF RAIN TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIG/VSBY DEGRADATION TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
WILL LAG PRECIPITATION ONSET AT SITES BY A FEW HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE NOTABLE CIG REDUCTION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH PREVALENT IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR VSBYS. LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SITES /KMSP-KRNH-
KEAU/. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 7-14KTS TODAY VEER TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

KMSP... PRECIP SHOULD SNEAK INTO KMSP BETWEEN 19Z AND
20Z...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOW. CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR THIS EVE THEN IFR BY 06Z.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281711
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL BRING HEALTHY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
TIME. AS A RESULT HAVE DELAYED THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE SMALLER
CHANCE POPS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 28.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINNING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS OF CO/WY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IN EASTERN NE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED Q2 6HR RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THIS MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL...THE CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS SLOWLY FILLING AS THE LATENT HEAT WARMS THE MID
LEVELS. THIS TIES INTO THE SECOND POINT...WHICH IS THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE 750MB IN THE 28.00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH CARRIES
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
PROFILE IS BY DEFINITION IS WITHOUT CAPE...SO DEEP CONVECTION AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS MN/WI. WITH THAT
SAID...THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE AROUND 150MB AND COULD GET A SMALL
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...BUT THESE SHOULD FALL OVER
MULTIPLE HOURS WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE RUNOFF AND FLOODING THREAT.
TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF POPS EARLY FRIDAY TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
THE HIRES MODELS BUT KEPT THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH A COUPLE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IN THE COMING WEEK.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
/LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY MORNING/. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG THE 28.00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTS...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING QPF
PATTERNS ARE ALSO A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN RUNS TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING
FOR PRECIP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL WI...UNLESS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SLOWS ANYMORE /IT HAS ALREADY DONE SO OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH EVEN TRANSITIONS FROM
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TODAY...THE SUNDAY NIGHT
EVENT WILL HAVE DECENT MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG AND THERE WILL ALSO
BE GOOD CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE ALREADY HAVE 60-75% RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD EVEN GO HIGHER. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL
WESTERLY FLWO PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIG/VSBY DEGRADATION TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
WILL LAG PRECIPITATION ONSET AT SITES BY A FEW HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE NOTABLE CIG REDUCTION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH PREVALENT IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR VSBYS. LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SITES /KMSP-KRNH-
KEAU/. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 7-14KTS TODAY VEER TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

KMSP... PRECIP SHOULD SNEAK INTO KMSP BETWEEN 19Z AND
20Z...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOW. CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR THIS EVE THEN IFR BY 06Z.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 281711
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL BRING HEALTHY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
TIME. AS A RESULT HAVE DELAYED THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE SMALLER
CHANCE POPS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 28.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINNING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS OF CO/WY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IN EASTERN NE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED Q2 6HR RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THIS MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL...THE CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS SLOWLY FILLING AS THE LATENT HEAT WARMS THE MID
LEVELS. THIS TIES INTO THE SECOND POINT...WHICH IS THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE 750MB IN THE 28.00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH CARRIES
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
PROFILE IS BY DEFINITION IS WITHOUT CAPE...SO DEEP CONVECTION AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS MN/WI. WITH THAT
SAID...THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE AROUND 150MB AND COULD GET A SMALL
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...BUT THESE SHOULD FALL OVER
MULTIPLE HOURS WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE RUNOFF AND FLOODING THREAT.
TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF POPS EARLY FRIDAY TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
THE HIRES MODELS BUT KEPT THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH A COUPLE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IN THE COMING WEEK.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
/LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY MORNING/. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG THE 28.00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTS...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING QPF
PATTERNS ARE ALSO A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN RUNS TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING
FOR PRECIP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL WI...UNLESS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SLOWS ANYMORE /IT HAS ALREADY DONE SO OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH EVEN TRANSITIONS FROM
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TODAY...THE SUNDAY NIGHT
EVENT WILL HAVE DECENT MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG AND THERE WILL ALSO
BE GOOD CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE ALREADY HAVE 60-75% RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD EVEN GO HIGHER. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL
WESTERLY FLWO PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIG/VSBY DEGRADATION TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
WILL LAG PRECIPITATION ONSET AT SITES BY A FEW HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE NOTABLE CIG REDUCTION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH PREVALENT IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR VSBYS. LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SITES /KMSP-KRNH-
KEAU/. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 7-14KTS TODAY VEER TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

KMSP... PRECIP SHOULD SNEAK INTO KMSP BETWEEN 19Z AND
20Z...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOW. CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR THIS EVE THEN IFR BY 06Z.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU AUG 28

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL BRING HEALTHY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
TIME. AS A RESULT HAVE DELAYED THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE SMALLER
CHANCE POPS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 28.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINNING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS OF CO/WY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IN EASTERN NE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED Q2 6HR RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THIS MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL...THE CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS SLOWLY FILLING AS THE LATENT HEAT WARMS THE MID
LEVELS. THIS TIES INTO THE SECOND POINT...WHICH IS THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE 750MB IN THE 28.00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH CARRIES
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
PROFILE IS BY DEFINITION IS WITHOUT CAPE...SO DEEP CONVECTION AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS MN/WI. WITH THAT
SAID...THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE AROUND 150MB AND COULD GET A SMALL
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...BUT THESE SHOULD FALL OVER
MULTIPLE HOURS WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE RUNOFF AND FLOODING THREAT.
TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF POPS EARLY FRIDAY TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
THE HIRES MODELS BUT KEPT THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH A COUPLE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IN THE COMING WEEK.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
/LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY MORNING/. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG THE 28.00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTS...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING QPF
PATTERNS ARE ALSO A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN RUNS TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING
FOR PRECIP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL WI...UNLESS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SLOWS ANYMORE /IT HAS ALREADY DONE SO OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH EVEN TRANSITIONS FROM
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TODAY...THE SUNDAY NIGHT
EVENT WILL HAVE DECENT MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG AND THERE WILL ALSO
BE GOOD CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE ALREADY HAVE 60-75% RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD EVEN GO HIGHER. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL
WESTERLY FLWO PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR LATER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS REDUCED VISIBILITY AS
WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL BE MORE OF A LOW STRATUS THEN FOG EVENT.
ALSO INTRODUCED A FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

KMSP...
TIMING ON THE PRECIP SHOULD BE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS KMSP. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER OR HIGH RAINFALL RATES...BUT SHOULD SEE
PERSISTENT PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR EARLY. THEN VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND WNW
AT 5-8KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU AUG 28

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL BRING HEALTHY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
TIME. AS A RESULT HAVE DELAYED THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE SMALLER
CHANCE POPS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 28.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINNING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS OF CO/WY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IN EASTERN NE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED Q2 6HR RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THIS MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL...THE CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS SLOWLY FILLING AS THE LATENT HEAT WARMS THE MID
LEVELS. THIS TIES INTO THE SECOND POINT...WHICH IS THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE 750MB IN THE 28.00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH CARRIES
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
PROFILE IS BY DEFINITION IS WITHOUT CAPE...SO DEEP CONVECTION AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS MN/WI. WITH THAT
SAID...THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE AROUND 150MB AND COULD GET A SMALL
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...BUT THESE SHOULD FALL OVER
MULTIPLE HOURS WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE RUNOFF AND FLOODING THREAT.
TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF POPS EARLY FRIDAY TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
THE HIRES MODELS BUT KEPT THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH A COUPLE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IN THE COMING WEEK.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
/LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY MORNING/. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG THE 28.00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTS...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING QPF
PATTERNS ARE ALSO A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN RUNS TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING
FOR PRECIP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL WI...UNLESS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SLOWS ANYMORE /IT HAS ALREADY DONE SO OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH EVEN TRANSITIONS FROM
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TODAY...THE SUNDAY NIGHT
EVENT WILL HAVE DECENT MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG AND THERE WILL ALSO
BE GOOD CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE ALREADY HAVE 60-75% RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD EVEN GO HIGHER. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL
WESTERLY FLWO PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR LATER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS REDUCED VISIBILITY AS
WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL BE MORE OF A LOW STRATUS THEN FOG EVENT.
ALSO INTRODUCED A FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

KMSP...
TIMING ON THE PRECIP SHOULD BE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS KMSP. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER OR HIGH RAINFALL RATES...BUT SHOULD SEE
PERSISTENT PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR EARLY. THEN VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND WNW
AT 5-8KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB









000
FXUS63 KMPX 280931
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL BRING HEALTHY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
TIME. AS A RESULT HAVE DELAYED THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE SMALLER
CHANCE POPS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 28.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINNING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS OF CO/WY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IN EASTERN NE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED Q2 6HR RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THIS MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL...THE CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS SLOWLY FILLING AS THE LATENT HEAT WARMS THE MID
LEVELS. THIS TIES INTO THE SECOND POINT...WHICH IS THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE 750MB IN THE 28.00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH CARRIES
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
PROFILE IS BY DEFINITION IS WITHOUT CAPE...SO DEEP CONVECTION AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS MN/WI. WITH THAT
SAID...THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE AROUND 150MB AND COULD GET A SMALL
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...BUT THESE SHOULD FALL OVER
MULTIPLE HOURS WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE RUNOFF AND FLOODING THREAT.
TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF POPS EARLY FRIDAY TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
THE HIRES MODELS BUT KEPT THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH A COUPLE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IN THE COMING WEEK.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
/LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY MORNING/. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG THE 28.00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTS...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING QPF
PATTERNS ARE ALSO A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN RUNS TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING
FOR PRECIP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL WI...UNLESS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SLOWS ANYMORE /IT HAS ALREADY DONE SO OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH EVEN TRANSITIONS FROM
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TODAY...THE SUNDAY NIGHT
EVENT WILL HAVE DECENT MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG AND THERE WILL ALSO
BE GOOD CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE ALREADY HAVE 60-75% RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD EVEN GO HIGHER. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL
WESTERLY FLWO PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP FOR A TIME AT STC/RNH/EAU NEAR DAWN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND PRECIP
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS
ISSUANCE IS TO PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY AN HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR WITH THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE EVENING BUT AS THE LOW PUSHES OVERHEAD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS.

KMSP...RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THEREAFTER. IN THE MEANTIME...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND WNW AT 5-7KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 280931
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL BRING HEALTHY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
TIME. AS A RESULT HAVE DELAYED THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE SMALLER
CHANCE POPS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 28.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINNING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS OF CO/WY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IN EASTERN NE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED Q2 6HR RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THIS MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL...THE CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS SLOWLY FILLING AS THE LATENT HEAT WARMS THE MID
LEVELS. THIS TIES INTO THE SECOND POINT...WHICH IS THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE 750MB IN THE 28.00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH CARRIES
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
PROFILE IS BY DEFINITION IS WITHOUT CAPE...SO DEEP CONVECTION AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS MN/WI. WITH THAT
SAID...THE TROPOPAUSE WILL BE AROUND 150MB AND COULD GET A SMALL
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...BUT THESE SHOULD FALL OVER
MULTIPLE HOURS WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE RUNOFF AND FLOODING THREAT.
TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF POPS EARLY FRIDAY TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
THE HIRES MODELS BUT KEPT THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH A COUPLE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IN THE COMING WEEK.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
/LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY MORNING/. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG THE 28.00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTS...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING QPF
PATTERNS ARE ALSO A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN RUNS TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING
FOR PRECIP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL WI...UNLESS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SLOWS ANYMORE /IT HAS ALREADY DONE SO OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH EVEN TRANSITIONS FROM
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TODAY...THE SUNDAY NIGHT
EVENT WILL HAVE DECENT MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG AND THERE WILL ALSO
BE GOOD CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE ALREADY HAVE 60-75% RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD EVEN GO HIGHER. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL
WESTERLY FLWO PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP FOR A TIME AT STC/RNH/EAU NEAR DAWN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND PRECIP
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS
ISSUANCE IS TO PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY AN HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR WITH THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE EVENING BUT AS THE LOW PUSHES OVERHEAD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS.

KMSP...RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THEREAFTER. IN THE MEANTIME...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND WNW AT 5-7KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 280459 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO REFLECT A SLOWING TREND OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COMPLEX REACHING MN THURSDAY MORNING. A DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE WILL TAKE A BIT TO SATURATE LATE TONIGHT SO KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE MN RIVER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE COMPLEX FORMING ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER NERN CO AND SWRN NE. MODELS HAVE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT IN
THEIR NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD SHIFTING ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT FOLLOWING THE REST OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE AND AS THE TIMEFRAME BEGINS TO ENTER THE HI RES MODEL
WINDOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION ONSET AND AMOUNTS WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY AFTER 06Z BEFORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS...A RATHER
DISTURBING SHIFT IN THE HIGHEST TOTALS WAS WITNESSED WITH THE
27.12Z GFS...WHICH DEVELOPED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SECONDARY
MAXIMA THAT LIFTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS SECOND AREA WAS IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERN MAXIMA
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE GFS LOOKS FISHY...AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT
INCLUDES A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD THE 27.12Z NAM AND ECMWF MODELS.
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT INSTIGATES
BROADER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE HEAVIER SOUTHERN BAND...IT
SEEMS MORE LOGICAL THAT THE ATTENDANT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER
THAN WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS. BETWEEN 06Z THURSDAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY...PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE LOOK LIKELY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND UNDER ONE HALF INCH TO THE NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 70S UNDER THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE RAIN PRODUCER THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS SLOWED
WITH RECENT MODELS TRENDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE 4
CORNERS STRUGGLES THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. THE TROUGH
NEVER QUITE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...BUT WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. WITH THAT
SAID...THE THU NIGHT AND FRI PERIODS WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
RAIN AND EMBEDDED TS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY. SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A THREAT WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES FAIRLY LOW UNDER THE
MOIST COLUMN. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS
BY LATE FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FINALLY KICK THIS SYSTEM EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW WILL SPREAD -SHRA/TS CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN...STARTING OUT IN WESTERN
MN AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING...MAINLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE
TWIN CITIES EAST. THIS MAY ALSO BE MOISTURE LADEN (AKA HEAVY RAIN)
AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MAY BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO T...BUT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP FOR A TIME AT STC/RNH/EAU NEAR DAWN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND PRECIP
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS
ISSUANCE IS TO PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY AN HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR WITH THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE EVENING BUT AS THE LOW PUSHES OVERHEAD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS.

KMSP...RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THEREAFTER. IN THE MEANTIME...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND WNW AT 5-7KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 280253 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO REFLECT A SLOWING TREND OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COMPLEX REACHING MN THURSDAY MORNING. A DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE WILL TAKE A BIT TO SATURATE LATE TONIGHT SO KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE MN RIVER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE COMPLEX FORMING ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER NERN CO AND SWRN NE. MODELS HAVE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT IN
THEIR NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD SHIFTING ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT FOLLOWING THE REST OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE AND AS THE TIMEFRAME BEGINS TO ENTER THE HI RES MODEL
WINDOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION ONSET AND AMOUNTS WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY AFTER 06Z BEFORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS...A RATHER
DISTURBING SHIFT IN THE HIGHEST TOTALS WAS WITNESSED WITH THE
27.12Z GFS...WHICH DEVELOPED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SECONDARY
MAXIMA THAT LIFTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS SECOND AREA WAS IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERN MAXIMA
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE GFS LOOKS FISHY...AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT
INCLUDES A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD THE 27.12Z NAM AND ECMWF MODELS.
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT INSTIGATES
BROADER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE HEAVIER SOUTHERN BAND...IT
SEEMS MORE LOGICAL THAT THE ATTENDANT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER
THAN WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS. BETWEEN 06Z THURSDAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY...PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE LOOK LIKELY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND UNDER ONE HALF INCH TO THE NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 70S UNDER THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE RAIN PRODUCER THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS SLOWED
WITH RECENT MODELS TRENDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE 4
CORNERS STRUGGLES THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. THE TROUGH
NEVER QUITE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...BUT WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. WITH THAT
SAID...THE THU NIGHT AND FRI PERIODS WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
RAIN AND EMBEDDED TS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY. SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A THREAT WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES FAIRLY LOW UNDER THE
MOIST COLUMN. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS
BY LATE FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FINALLY KICK THIS SYSTEM EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW WILL SPREAD -SHRA/TS CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN...STARTING OUT IN WESTERN
MN AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING...MAINLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE
TWIN CITIES EAST. THIS MAY ALSO BE MOISTURE LADEN (AKA HEAVY RAIN)
AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MAY BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO T...BUT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME AT STC/RNH/EAU NEAR DAWN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THIS
ALTOGETHER. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS LOWERING AND PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR WITH THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ABOUT MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING THEREAFTER. IN THE MEAN TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND WNW AT 5-7KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 280253 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO REFLECT A SLOWING TREND OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COMPLEX REACHING MN THURSDAY MORNING. A DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE WILL TAKE A BIT TO SATURATE LATE TONIGHT SO KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE MN RIVER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE COMPLEX FORMING ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER NERN CO AND SWRN NE. MODELS HAVE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT IN
THEIR NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD SHIFTING ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT FOLLOWING THE REST OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE AND AS THE TIMEFRAME BEGINS TO ENTER THE HI RES MODEL
WINDOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION ONSET AND AMOUNTS WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY AFTER 06Z BEFORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS...A RATHER
DISTURBING SHIFT IN THE HIGHEST TOTALS WAS WITNESSED WITH THE
27.12Z GFS...WHICH DEVELOPED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SECONDARY
MAXIMA THAT LIFTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS SECOND AREA WAS IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERN MAXIMA
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE GFS LOOKS FISHY...AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT
INCLUDES A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD THE 27.12Z NAM AND ECMWF MODELS.
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT INSTIGATES
BROADER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE HEAVIER SOUTHERN BAND...IT
SEEMS MORE LOGICAL THAT THE ATTENDANT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER
THAN WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS. BETWEEN 06Z THURSDAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY...PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE LOOK LIKELY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND UNDER ONE HALF INCH TO THE NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 70S UNDER THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE RAIN PRODUCER THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS SLOWED
WITH RECENT MODELS TRENDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE 4
CORNERS STRUGGLES THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. THE TROUGH
NEVER QUITE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...BUT WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. WITH THAT
SAID...THE THU NIGHT AND FRI PERIODS WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
RAIN AND EMBEDDED TS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY. SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A THREAT WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES FAIRLY LOW UNDER THE
MOIST COLUMN. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS
BY LATE FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FINALLY KICK THIS SYSTEM EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY. ANOTHER TROUGH
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW WILL SPREAD -SHRA/TS CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN...STARTING OUT IN WESTERN
MN AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING...MAINLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE
TWIN CITIES EAST. THIS MAY ALSO BE MOISTURE LADEN (AKA HEAVY RAIN)
AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MAY BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO T...BUT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME AT STC/RNH/EAU NEAR DAWN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THIS
ALTOGETHER. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS LOWERING AND PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR WITH THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ABOUT MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING THEREAFTER. IN THE MEAN TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND WNW AT 5-7KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF










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