Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMPX 291132
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW LESS MORNING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DOMINATING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. TODAY/S DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SPONSORED BY FAINT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY...POSSIBLY SNEAKING AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW 5
MPH...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO DESCRIBE THIS WEEKS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IT APPEARS WE ARE APPROACHING
THAT LIMIT. NORTHWEST FLOW...ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING AND JAMES BAY
LOW CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE...AND INDEED THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
REPLICATES THIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK WITH FIND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THAT THE PALTRY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW
REGIME WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS 29.00 BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF
POPS...BUT THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THIS WAVE IN THE CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT 30 PERCENT POPS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE...AND MAY NEED TO
SCALE THEM BACK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS ALONG/EAST OF THE MN/WI BORDER INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH AT KEAU BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER AT THE FIELD IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS
POINT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...DECREASING BELOW 5
KTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND
6-8KFT TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS. SKIES
CLEAR AFTER 00Z AND WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 291132
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW LESS MORNING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DOMINATING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. TODAY/S DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SPONSORED BY FAINT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY...POSSIBLY SNEAKING AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW 5
MPH...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO DESCRIBE THIS WEEKS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IT APPEARS WE ARE APPROACHING
THAT LIMIT. NORTHWEST FLOW...ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING AND JAMES BAY
LOW CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE...AND INDEED THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
REPLICATES THIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK WITH FIND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THAT THE PALTRY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW
REGIME WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS 29.00 BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF
POPS...BUT THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THIS WAVE IN THE CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT 30 PERCENT POPS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE...AND MAY NEED TO
SCALE THEM BACK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS ALONG/EAST OF THE MN/WI BORDER INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH AT KEAU BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER AT THE FIELD IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS
POINT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...DECREASING BELOW 5
KTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND
6-8KFT TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS. SKIES
CLEAR AFTER 00Z AND WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 290851
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW LESS MORNING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DOMINATING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. TODAY/S DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SPONSORED BY FAINT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY...POSSIBLY SNEAKING AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW 5
MPH...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO DESCRIBE THIS WEEKS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IT APPEARS WE ARE APPROACHING
THAT LIMIT. NORTHWEST FLOW...ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING AND JAMES BAY
LOW CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE...AND INDEED THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
REPLICATES THIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK WITH FIND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THAT THE PALTRY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW
REGIME WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS 29.00 BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF
POPS...BUT THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THIS WAVE IN THE CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT 30 PERCENT POPS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE...AND MAY NEED TO
SCALE THEM BACK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN MN AND ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER...BUT
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF KEAU. IT
MIGHT NICK LADYSMITH TONIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WISC TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDER. THREAT IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN THE KEAU TAF BUT DID ADD VCSH. NW WIND MIGHT GUST ABOVE 10
KNOTS AMID DAYTIME HEATING.

KMSP... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THEN MORE CU WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THIS MAY GO BROKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF KMSP. MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON IS ALSO WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS 10-15 KTS BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KMPX 290851
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW LESS MORNING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DOMINATING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. TODAY/S DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SPONSORED BY FAINT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY...POSSIBLY SNEAKING AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW 5
MPH...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO DESCRIBE THIS WEEKS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IT APPEARS WE ARE APPROACHING
THAT LIMIT. NORTHWEST FLOW...ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING AND JAMES BAY
LOW CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE...AND INDEED THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
REPLICATES THIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK WITH FIND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THAT THE PALTRY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW
REGIME WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS 29.00 BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF
POPS...BUT THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THIS WAVE IN THE CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT 30 PERCENT POPS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE...AND MAY NEED TO
SCALE THEM BACK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN MN AND ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER...BUT
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF KEAU. IT
MIGHT NICK LADYSMITH TONIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WISC TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDER. THREAT IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN THE KEAU TAF BUT DID ADD VCSH. NW WIND MIGHT GUST ABOVE 10
KNOTS AMID DAYTIME HEATING.

KMSP... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THEN MORE CU WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THIS MAY GO BROKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF KMSP. MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON IS ALSO WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS 10-15 KTS BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 290359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN IS SHEARING/WEAKENING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY CUMULUS NOTED...AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
SHOWER AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER LATEST RADAR TREND.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD EXIT THROUGH 00Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATED THIS AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE WAVE TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE AFFECTING AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT THAT UNSTABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT THAT HIGH.
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE UNDERNEATH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT NW FLOW. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
SWING AROUND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THROUGH THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC SUPPORT DUE TO HIGH PRES KEEPING ANY
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AWAY WILL MEAN ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRES...ALLOWING WEAK
SFC LOW PRES AREAS TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MEANS A
SLIGHT INCRS IN POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA /AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA/ FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO POPS ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. IN FACT...OVERALL QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER INCH AND MANY PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR VERY LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIT THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
WHILE LOWS DROP TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN MN AND ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER...BUT
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF KEAU. IT
MIGHT NICK LADYSMITH TONIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WISC TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDER. THREAT IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN THE KEAU TAF BUT DID ADD VCSH. NW WIND MIGHT GUST ABOVE 10
KNOTS AMID DAYTIME HEATING.

KMSP... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THEN MORE CU WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THIS MAY GO BROKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF KMSP. MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON IS ALSO WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS 10-15 KTS BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KMPX 290359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN IS SHEARING/WEAKENING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY CUMULUS NOTED...AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
SHOWER AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER LATEST RADAR TREND.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD EXIT THROUGH 00Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATED THIS AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE WAVE TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE AFFECTING AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT THAT UNSTABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT THAT HIGH.
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE UNDERNEATH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT NW FLOW. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
SWING AROUND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THROUGH THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC SUPPORT DUE TO HIGH PRES KEEPING ANY
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AWAY WILL MEAN ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRES...ALLOWING WEAK
SFC LOW PRES AREAS TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MEANS A
SLIGHT INCRS IN POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA /AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA/ FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO POPS ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. IN FACT...OVERALL QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER INCH AND MANY PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR VERY LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIT THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
WHILE LOWS DROP TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN MN AND ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER...BUT
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF KEAU. IT
MIGHT NICK LADYSMITH TONIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WISC TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDER. THREAT IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN THE KEAU TAF BUT DID ADD VCSH. NW WIND MIGHT GUST ABOVE 10
KNOTS AMID DAYTIME HEATING.

KMSP... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THEN MORE CU WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THIS MAY GO BROKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF KMSP. MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON IS ALSO WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS 10-15 KTS BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KMPX 282350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN IS SHEARING/WEAKENING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY CUMULUS NOTED...AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
SHOWER AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER LATEST RADAR TREND.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD EXIT THROUGH 00Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATED THIS AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE WAVE TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE AFFECTING AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT THAT UNSTABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT THAT HIGH.
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE UNDERNEATH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT NW FLOW. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
SWING AROUND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THROUGH THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC SUPPORT DUE TO HIGH PRES KEEPING ANY
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AWAY WILL MEAN ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRES...ALLOWING WEAK
SFC LOW PRES AREAS TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MEANS A
SLIGHT INCRS IN POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA /AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA/ FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO POPS ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. IN FACT...OVERALL QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER INCH AND MANY PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR VERY LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIT THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
WHILE LOWS DROP TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRATOCU AROUND 5000-6000 DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SOME OF THIS MAY GO BROKEN IN PARTS OF WESTERN
WISC LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LITTLE WEATHER
TONIGHT. LEFT FOG OUT FOR THE KEAU AREA...DUE TO LIKELIHOOD FOR
THE CLOUDS TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WISC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
MAYBE THUNDER AS WELL. THREAT IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN THE KEAU TAF. NW WIND MIGHT GUST ABOVE 10 KNOTS AMID
DAYTIME HEATING.

KMSP... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5K-6K FEET LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DROP
SOUTHWARD BUT MOST OF THE BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN. MORE
CU WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS ALSO WHEN THERE
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS 10-15 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KMPX 282350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN IS SHEARING/WEAKENING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY CUMULUS NOTED...AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
SHOWER AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER LATEST RADAR TREND.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD EXIT THROUGH 00Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATED THIS AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE WAVE TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE AFFECTING AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT THAT UNSTABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT THAT HIGH.
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE UNDERNEATH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT NW FLOW. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
SWING AROUND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THROUGH THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC SUPPORT DUE TO HIGH PRES KEEPING ANY
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AWAY WILL MEAN ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRES...ALLOWING WEAK
SFC LOW PRES AREAS TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MEANS A
SLIGHT INCRS IN POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA /AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA/ FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO POPS ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. IN FACT...OVERALL QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER INCH AND MANY PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR VERY LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIT THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
WHILE LOWS DROP TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRATOCU AROUND 5000-6000 DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SOME OF THIS MAY GO BROKEN IN PARTS OF WESTERN
WISC LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LITTLE WEATHER
TONIGHT. LEFT FOG OUT FOR THE KEAU AREA...DUE TO LIKELIHOOD FOR
THE CLOUDS TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WISC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
MAYBE THUNDER AS WELL. THREAT IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN THE KEAU TAF. NW WIND MIGHT GUST ABOVE 10 KNOTS AMID
DAYTIME HEATING.

KMSP... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5K-6K FEET LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DROP
SOUTHWARD BUT MOST OF THE BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN. MORE
CU WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS ALSO WHEN THERE
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS 10-15 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 282056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN IS SHEARING/WEAKENING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY CUMULUS NOTED...AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
SHOWER AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER LATEST RADAR TREND.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD EXIT THROUGH 00Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATED THIS AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE WAVE TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE AFFECTING AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT THAT UNSTABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT THAT HIGH.
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE UNDERNEATH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT NW FLOW. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
SWING AROUND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THROUGH THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC SUPPORT DUE TO HIGH PRES KEEPING ANY
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AWAY WILL MEAN ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRES...ALLOWING WEAK
SFC LOW PRES AREAS TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MEANS A
SLIGHT INCRS IN POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA /AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA/ FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO POPS ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. IN FACT...OVERALL QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER INCH AND MANY PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR VERY LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIT THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
WHILE LOWS DROP TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT
DIMINISHING TSRA INTO WC WI PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SC MN INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT
BY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS NW-N AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LEFT FOG OUT FOR THE AREA FOR NOW...WITH
ENOUGH CLOUDS/DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE FIELD. WINDS
NW 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 282056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN IS SHEARING/WEAKENING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY CUMULUS NOTED...AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
SHOWER AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER LATEST RADAR TREND.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD EXIT THROUGH 00Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATED THIS AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE WAVE TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE AFFECTING AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT THAT UNSTABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT THAT HIGH.
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE UNDERNEATH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT NW FLOW. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
SWING AROUND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THROUGH THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC SUPPORT DUE TO HIGH PRES KEEPING ANY
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AWAY WILL MEAN ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRES...ALLOWING WEAK
SFC LOW PRES AREAS TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MEANS A
SLIGHT INCRS IN POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA /AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA/ FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO POPS ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. IN FACT...OVERALL QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER INCH AND MANY PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR VERY LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIT THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
WHILE LOWS DROP TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT
DIMINISHING TSRA INTO WC WI PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SC MN INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT
BY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS NW-N AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LEFT FOG OUT FOR THE AREA FOR NOW...WITH
ENOUGH CLOUDS/DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE FIELD. WINDS
NW 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281828
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
128 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE INFLUENCE THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ON LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE REFUSING TO GIVE UP AS
WEAK 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE A CLEARER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK CHANNEL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SAG WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OF 80F.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES GIVES SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT
PERIODICALLY APPEAR ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW TOTAL CIN
EROSION AND 250 TO 500J/KG OF SB CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
NOT OCCUR. IN SHORT...THE RUN TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE 28.00 GFS AND
ECMWF RANGES IN THE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES. IN REALITY...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT
DIMINISHING TSRA INTO WC WI PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING..BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SC MN INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT
BY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS NW-N AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LEFT FOG OUT FOR THE AREA FOR NOW...WITH
ENOUGH CLOUDS/DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE FIELD. WINDS
NW 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 281828
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
128 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE INFLUENCE THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ON LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE REFUSING TO GIVE UP AS
WEAK 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE A CLEARER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK CHANNEL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SAG WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OF 80F.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES GIVES SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT
PERIODICALLY APPEAR ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW TOTAL CIN
EROSION AND 250 TO 500J/KG OF SB CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
NOT OCCUR. IN SHORT...THE RUN TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE 28.00 GFS AND
ECMWF RANGES IN THE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES. IN REALITY...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT
DIMINISHING TSRA INTO WC WI PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING..BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SC MN INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT
BY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS NW-N AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LEFT FOG OUT FOR THE AREA FOR NOW...WITH
ENOUGH CLOUDS/DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE FIELD. WINDS
NW 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281115
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE INFLUENCE THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ON LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE REFUSING TO GIVE UP AS
WEAK 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE A CLEARER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK CHANNEL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SAG WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OF 80F.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES GIVES SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT
PERIODICALLY APPEAR ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW TOTAL CIN
EROSION AND 250 TO 500J/KG OF SB CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
NOT OCCUR. IN SHORT...THE RUN TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE 28.00 GFS AND
ECMWF RANGES IN THE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES. IN REALITY...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A BKN-OVC DECK OF LOW-END VFR CLOUDS /CIRCA 6KFT/ WILL LOITER
ACROSS THE TAF AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SCATTERING
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR KRWF...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE BELOW 5
KTS.

KMSP...
BKN-OVC CLOUDS CIRCA 6KFT THIS MORNING....THEN SCATTERING OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS AFTER 00Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281115
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE INFLUENCE THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ON LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE REFUSING TO GIVE UP AS
WEAK 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE A CLEARER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK CHANNEL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SAG WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OF 80F.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES GIVES SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT
PERIODICALLY APPEAR ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW TOTAL CIN
EROSION AND 250 TO 500J/KG OF SB CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
NOT OCCUR. IN SHORT...THE RUN TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE 28.00 GFS AND
ECMWF RANGES IN THE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES. IN REALITY...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A BKN-OVC DECK OF LOW-END VFR CLOUDS /CIRCA 6KFT/ WILL LOITER
ACROSS THE TAF AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SCATTERING
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR KRWF...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE BELOW 5
KTS.

KMSP...
BKN-OVC CLOUDS CIRCA 6KFT THIS MORNING....THEN SCATTERING OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS AFTER 00Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 280850
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE INFLUENCE THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ON LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE REFUSING TO GIVE UP AS
WEAK 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE A CLEARER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK CHANNEL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SAG WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OF 80F.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES GIVES SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT
PERIODICALLY APPEAR ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW TOTAL CIN
EROSION AND 250 TO 500J/KG OF SB CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
NOT OCCUR. IN SHORT...THE RUN TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE 28.00 GFS AND
ECMWF RANGES IN THE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES. IN REALITY...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A NARROW MEANDERING NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS
JUST EAST OF KRWF. THEY ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SSW (15KTS) AND WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KRWF AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR ON THE CEILING IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAINLY OVC VFR CLOUDINESS (050) STRETCHES FROM KHCO
TO KMZH. IT IS MOVING SSW AT 18KTS WITH CLEARING (SCT-BKN)
REACHING INTO KAXN...KSTC AND KMSP BY 09Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
SCT VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY (040-050) WITH TEMPORARY
BKN CONDITIONS WITH THE CU RULE QUITE NEGATIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NW AND NE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MORE OF A NW WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR THE DAY AHEAD.

KMSP...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDINESS (040-050) OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NE
WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BACKING TO THE
NW BY DAYBREAK AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 280850
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE INFLUENCE THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ON LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE REFUSING TO GIVE UP AS
WEAK 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE A CLEARER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK CHANNEL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SAG WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OF 80F.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES GIVES SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT
PERIODICALLY APPEAR ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW TOTAL CIN
EROSION AND 250 TO 500J/KG OF SB CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
NOT OCCUR. IN SHORT...THE RUN TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE 28.00 GFS AND
ECMWF RANGES IN THE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES. IN REALITY...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A NARROW MEANDERING NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS
JUST EAST OF KRWF. THEY ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SSW (15KTS) AND WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KRWF AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR ON THE CEILING IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAINLY OVC VFR CLOUDINESS (050) STRETCHES FROM KHCO
TO KMZH. IT IS MOVING SSW AT 18KTS WITH CLEARING (SCT-BKN)
REACHING INTO KAXN...KSTC AND KMSP BY 09Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
SCT VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY (040-050) WITH TEMPORARY
BKN CONDITIONS WITH THE CU RULE QUITE NEGATIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NW AND NE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MORE OF A NW WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR THE DAY AHEAD.

KMSP...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDINESS (040-050) OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NE
WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BACKING TO THE
NW BY DAYBREAK AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 280345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE TAPER DIURNALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AS
WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST AND SHOWERS WERE MORE
NUMEROUS. WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COUPLE OF ISSUES INTO MONDAY.  SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP QPF INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT BUILDS CAPE OVER 800 J/KG AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DOESNT DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY OR THE
WEAK WAVE AROUND THE LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT MODEL RUN AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR INTENSIFIES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT THEMES FOR
THE WX OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY THRU THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE CENTRAL CONUS...ESP IN THE NORTH...WILL BE
SUBJECT TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ANY CHANCES...MAINLY
TUE THEN THU INTO FRI...WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROUGH RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES COME WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A NARROW MEANDERING NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS
JUST EAST OF KRWF. THEY ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SSW (15KTS) AND WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KRWF AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR ON THE CEILING IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAINLY OVC VFR CLOUDINESS (050) STRETCHES FROM KHCO
TO KMZH. IT IS MOVING SSW AT 18KTS WITH CLEARING (SCT-BKN)
REACHING INTO KAXN...KSTC AND KMSP BY 09Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
SCT VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY (040-050) WITH TEMPORARY
BKN CONDITIONS WITH THE CU RULE QUITE NEGATIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NW AND NE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MORE OF A NW WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR THE DAY AHEAD.

KMSP...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDINESS (040-050) OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NE
WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BACKING TO THE
NW BY DAYBREAK AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 272353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE TAPER DIURNALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AS
WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST AND SHOWERS WERE MORE
NUMEROUS. WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COUPLE OF ISSUES INTO MONDAY.  SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP QPF INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT BUILDS CAPE OVER 800 J/KG AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DOESNT DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY OR THE
WEAK WAVE AROUND THE LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT MODEL RUN AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR INTENSIFIES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT THEMES FOR
THE WX OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY THRU THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE CENTRAL CONUS...ESP IN THE NORTH...WILL BE
SUBJECT TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ANY CHANCES...MAINLY
TUE THEN THU INTO FRI...WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROUGH RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES COME WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM KRST THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO
KAXN. THE SITES STILL IN LINE FOR A SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 02Z ARE
KRWF AND KAXN. GUSTY NW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND NNE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTRACTION OF THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN (LOW CONFIDENCE) ON PATCHY MVFR CIGS OVER NW
WI AND NORTHERN MN WORKING INTO KAXN...KSTC AND KRNH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...CLR TO SCT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR BR
FORECAST FOR KEAU OFF THE RIVER RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR SCT ON
MONDAY WITH NW WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AIRFIELD AT
THE START OF THE TAF...OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. N WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NW
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N5 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 272034
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE TAPER DIURNALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AS
WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST AND SHOWERS WERE MORE
NUMEROUS. WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COUPLE OF ISSUES INTO MONDAY.  SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP QPF INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT BUILDS CAPE OVER 800 J/KG AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DOESNT DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY OR THE
WEAK WAVE AROUND THE LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT MODEL RUN AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR INTENSIFIES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT THEMES FOR
THE WX OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY THRU THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE CENTRAL CONUS...ESP IN THE NORTH...WILL BE
SUBJECT TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ANY CHANCES...MAINLY
TUE THEN THU INTO FRI...WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROUGH RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES COME WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST AND EXITING THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND WILL
GRADUALLY THIS OUT THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS CLEAR COMPLETELY TO THE EAST...MAY SEE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD AT
THE MOMENT. WILL HAVE TO LOOK A THIS AGAIN FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL. CONTINUE VFR AFTER THAT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NORTH INTO
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 272034
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE TAPER DIURNALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AS
WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST AND SHOWERS WERE MORE
NUMEROUS. WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COUPLE OF ISSUES INTO MONDAY.  SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP QPF INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT BUILDS CAPE OVER 800 J/KG AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DOESNT DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY OR THE
WEAK WAVE AROUND THE LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT MODEL RUN AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR INTENSIFIES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT THEMES FOR
THE WX OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY THRU THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE CENTRAL CONUS...ESP IN THE NORTH...WILL BE
SUBJECT TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ANY CHANCES...MAINLY
TUE THEN THU INTO FRI...WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROUGH RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES COME WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST AND EXITING THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND WILL
GRADUALLY THIS OUT THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS CLEAR COMPLETELY TO THE EAST...MAY SEE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD AT
THE MOMENT. WILL HAVE TO LOOK A THIS AGAIN FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL. CONTINUE VFR AFTER THAT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NORTH INTO
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 271744
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST AND EXITING THE SOUTH THSI
EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND WILL
GRADUALLY THIS OUT THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINSIH AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS CLEAR COMPLETELY TO THE EAST...MAY SEE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD AT
THE MOMENT. WILL HAVE TO LOOK A THIS AGAIN FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL. CONTINUE VFR AFTER THAT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NORTH INTO
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 271744
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST AND EXITING THE SOUTH THSI
EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND WILL
GRADUALLY THIS OUT THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINSIH AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS CLEAR COMPLETELY TO THE EAST...MAY SEE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD AT
THE MOMENT. WILL HAVE TO LOOK A THIS AGAIN FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL. CONTINUE VFR AFTER THAT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NORTH INTO
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 271111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES OVER. TIMING/COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR
MISS...SO VCSH MENTIONS SEEM TO DESCRIBE THE SCENARIO THE BEST
OVERALL. MVFR CIGS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL.
HAVE INCLUDED SCT-BKN015-025 MENTIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH KAXN
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH AN OVC MVFR DECK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 17 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING
UNDER 05KTS TONIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD MEAN
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT GET PRECIP
TODAY.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN025 CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS
ALSO THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS IN THE VCTY OF THE FIELD.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-17KTS TODAY GUST TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 25 KTS....THEN DECREASE BELOW 5KTS AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 271111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES OVER. TIMING/COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR
MISS...SO VCSH MENTIONS SEEM TO DESCRIBE THE SCENARIO THE BEST
OVERALL. MVFR CIGS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL.
HAVE INCLUDED SCT-BKN015-025 MENTIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH KAXN
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH AN OVC MVFR DECK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 17 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING
UNDER 05KTS TONIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD MEAN
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT GET PRECIP
TODAY.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN025 CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS
ALSO THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS IN THE VCTY OF THE FIELD.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-17KTS TODAY GUST TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 25 KTS....THEN DECREASE BELOW 5KTS AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 270859
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND SE
MN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KEAU WITH A THUNDERSTORM HAVING MOVED
THROUGH IN THE PAST HOUR. DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI (KAXN-KSTC-KRNH). KEPT
KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU JUST ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VSBYS TO STAY VFR IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 14-18 KNOTS. DIMINISHING WIND AND CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...BKN-OVC035-045 IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD. WNW
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 15-18 KNOTS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 270859
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND SE
MN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KEAU WITH A THUNDERSTORM HAVING MOVED
THROUGH IN THE PAST HOUR. DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI (KAXN-KSTC-KRNH). KEPT
KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU JUST ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VSBYS TO STAY VFR IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 14-18 KNOTS. DIMINISHING WIND AND CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...BKN-OVC035-045 IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD. WNW
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 15-18 KNOTS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 270353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND SE
MN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KEAU WITH A THUNDERSTORM HAVING MOVED
THROUGH IN THE PAST HOUR. DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI (KAXN-KSTC-KRNH). KEPT
KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU JUST ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VSBYS TO STAY VFR IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 14-18 KNOTS. DIMINISHING WIND AND CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...BKN-OVC035-045 IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD. WNW
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 15-18 KNOTS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 270353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND SE
MN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KEAU WITH A THUNDERSTORM HAVING MOVED
THROUGH IN THE PAST HOUR. DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI (KAXN-KSTC-KRNH). KEPT
KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU JUST ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VSBYS TO STAY VFR IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 14-18 KNOTS. DIMINISHING WIND AND CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...BKN-OVC035-045 IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD. WNW
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 15-18 KNOTS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 270006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SMALL THREAT THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM THE TWIN
CITIES ON EAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN SWEEPS EAST. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (MVFR CIGS)
INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON BRINGING
THE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES...BUT DID INCLUDED THEM
FOR KRNH. SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY UNDER
THE COLD UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR. NW WINDS THIS EVENING (15G25KTS) BEHIND THE FRONT
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA INCREASING ON SUNDAY TO 15G25KTS.

KMSP...SMALL THREAT THIS EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE
TWIN CITIES. MAIN PROBLEM ON DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFLUENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW. KEPT IT VFR ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME. GUSTY NW WINDS
15-18G25KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH











000
FXUS63 KMPX 270006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SMALL THREAT THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM THE TWIN
CITIES ON EAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN SWEEPS EAST. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (MVFR CIGS)
INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON BRINGING
THE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES...BUT DID INCLUDED THEM
FOR KRNH. SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY UNDER
THE COLD UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR. NW WINDS THIS EVENING (15G25KTS) BEHIND THE FRONT
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA INCREASING ON SUNDAY TO 15G25KTS.

KMSP...SMALL THREAT THIS EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE
TWIN CITIES. MAIN PROBLEM ON DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFLUENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW. KEPT IT VFR ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME. GUSTY NW WINDS
15-18G25KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH










000
FXUS63 KMPX 262022
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER.
THEN LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND
INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY INTO SUNDAY.

KMSP...
VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW DROPS MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE
MORNING. S-SW WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND
GUSTY DURING THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 262022
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER.
THEN LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND
INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY INTO SUNDAY.

KMSP...
VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW DROPS MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE
MORNING. S-SW WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND
GUSTY DURING THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 261730
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE
TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE
EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION
DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS
ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND
SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN
OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO TE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER. THEN
LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AREA
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND INCREASE/BECOME
GUSTY INTO SUNDAY.

KMSP...
VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DROPS
MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE MORNING. S-SW
WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND GUSTY DURING
THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 261730
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE
TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE
EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION
DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS
ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND
SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN
OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO TE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER. THEN
LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AREA
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND INCREASE/BECOME
GUSTY INTO SUNDAY.

KMSP...
VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DROPS
MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE MORNING. S-SW
WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND GUSTY DURING
THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities