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000
FXUS63 KMPX 020933
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE DEPARTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE DROVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS THE DRY AIR. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN
THE 60S TODAY...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL BE 25 TO 30
KTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN MN WHERE THEY DID NOT SEE RAINFALL.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AT THE
COLDER SITES...AND NEAR 30 ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP TO 850 MB AND PLENTY OF
SUN...THERMAL FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN LOW TO MID 40S FOR
HIGHS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI. FOLLOWED THE GEM/ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS PRECIP. THE GFS
SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND THE NAM IS TOO WEAK AND
TOO FAR NORTH. EVEN WITH THE GEM/ECMWF...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING BAROCLINICITY FROM NODAK TO SRN MN/WI. THE LOW
WILL KICK EAST INTO SODAK SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I-90 AND I-94 CORRIDORS. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS A 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVERNIGHT. THE LLJ DOES VEER EAST WITH THE BEST FORCING
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER SERN MN AND WI. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THESE FEATURES SO THE RESULT IS LITTLE PRECIP IN AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SETUP. KEPT CHC POPS CONFINED TO EC MN AND THE
WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US IT HAS TAKEN A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH COULD MEAN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND COOL EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE PUSHES IN.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE COLD WITH 2M TEMPS DURING THE EVENT
MONDAY. DESPITE MARGINAL THICKNESSES FOR SNOW...THIS COULD BE A
SITUATION WHERE THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP IS SNOW...WHILE THE
PERIPHERY...LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS MORE RAIN.
WHERE THE CYCLONE CENTER TRACKS WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT IN
THIS CASE...AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH RESULTS IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL WITH ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. FAVORED A COOLER AND SNOWIER SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH THE
LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE...AND DRASTICALLY...IF
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING...WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.
FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
ALONG I-90 CORRIDOR.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>068-073>076-082-
     083-091-092.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ053-060>063-069-070-077-084-085-093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 020933
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE DEPARTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE DROVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS THE DRY AIR. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN
THE 60S TODAY...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL BE 25 TO 30
KTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN MN WHERE THEY DID NOT SEE RAINFALL.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AT THE
COLDER SITES...AND NEAR 30 ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP TO 850 MB AND PLENTY OF
SUN...THERMAL FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN LOW TO MID 40S FOR
HIGHS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI. FOLLOWED THE GEM/ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS PRECIP. THE GFS
SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND THE NAM IS TOO WEAK AND
TOO FAR NORTH. EVEN WITH THE GEM/ECMWF...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING BAROCLINICITY FROM NODAK TO SRN MN/WI. THE LOW
WILL KICK EAST INTO SODAK SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I-90 AND I-94 CORRIDORS. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS A 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVERNIGHT. THE LLJ DOES VEER EAST WITH THE BEST FORCING
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER SERN MN AND WI. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THESE FEATURES SO THE RESULT IS LITTLE PRECIP IN AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SETUP. KEPT CHC POPS CONFINED TO EC MN AND THE
WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US IT HAS TAKEN A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH COULD MEAN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND COOL EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE PUSHES IN.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE COLD WITH 2M TEMPS DURING THE EVENT
MONDAY. DESPITE MARGINAL THICKNESSES FOR SNOW...THIS COULD BE A
SITUATION WHERE THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP IS SNOW...WHILE THE
PERIPHERY...LIGHTER INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS MORE RAIN.
WHERE THE CYCLONE CENTER TRACKS WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT IN
THIS CASE...AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH RESULTS IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL WITH ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. FAVORED A COOLER AND SNOWIER SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH THE
LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE...AND DRASTICALLY...IF
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING...WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.
FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
ALONG I-90 CORRIDOR.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>068-073>076-082-
     083-091-092.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ053-060>063-069-070-077-084-085-093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 020625
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-
     092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 020625
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-
     092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 020625
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-
     092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 020625
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-
     092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 012241
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
541 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO
THE TAF SITES TODAY WILL FACILITATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT A LINE TO
FILL IN FROM NEAR KRWF TO BETWEEN KSTC AND KMSP BY 00Z...AND
EXPAND EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS THE
EVENING. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. PREVALENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN WITH THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY /WHEN MVFR VSBYS
WOULD OCCUR/. IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THEN SCATTERING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF MSP BY 00Z...WITH
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SITE EXPECTED BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT VSBYS COULD DIP TO MVFR WITH
THE TS ACTIVITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
TO 45KTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 15-20KTS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID
20S.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>070-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
     054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ023>028.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 012143
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
443 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STRONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTRICTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>070-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
     054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 012143
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
443 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.

A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STRONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTRICTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
     085-093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>070-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
     054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPCTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTIRCTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ054>059-
     064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPCTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTIRCTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ054>059-
     064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPCTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTIRCTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ054>059-
     064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPCTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTIRCTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
     082>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ054>059-
     064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011210 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL
FORM FROM RWF TO NEAR STC AROUND 23Z...THEN SLIDE EAST DURING THE
EVENING REACHING MSP BY 02Z...RNH BY 03Z...AND EAU AROUND 05Z.
SHIFTED THE TIMING BACK ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS BEFORE MAKING MORE CHANGES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KT ACROSS SRN MN
WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE STORMS PUSH IN. WINDS SHOULD PEAK BY
MID AFTERNOON.

KMSP...IT IS LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL IMPACT MSP A BIT LATER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLIER. LEFT A LARGE WINDOW FOR VCTS AND A TEMPO
WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN FURTHER UPDATES. INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE
AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011210 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL
FORM FROM RWF TO NEAR STC AROUND 23Z...THEN SLIDE EAST DURING THE
EVENING REACHING MSP BY 02Z...RNH BY 03Z...AND EAU AROUND 05Z.
SHIFTED THE TIMING BACK ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS BEFORE MAKING MORE CHANGES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KT ACROSS SRN MN
WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE STORMS PUSH IN. WINDS SHOULD PEAK BY
MID AFTERNOON.

KMSP...IT IS LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL IMPACT MSP A BIT LATER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLIER. LEFT A LARGE WINDOW FOR VCTS AND A TEMPO
WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN FURTHER UPDATES. INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE
AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011210 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL
FORM FROM RWF TO NEAR STC AROUND 23Z...THEN SLIDE EAST DURING THE
EVENING REACHING MSP BY 02Z...RNH BY 03Z...AND EAU AROUND 05Z.
SHIFTED THE TIMING BACK ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS BEFORE MAKING MORE CHANGES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KT ACROSS SRN MN
WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE STORMS PUSH IN. WINDS SHOULD PEAK BY
MID AFTERNOON.

KMSP...IT IS LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL IMPACT MSP A BIT LATER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLIER. LEFT A LARGE WINDOW FOR VCTS AND A TEMPO
WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN FURTHER UPDATES. INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE
AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011210 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL
FORM FROM RWF TO NEAR STC AROUND 23Z...THEN SLIDE EAST DURING THE
EVENING REACHING MSP BY 02Z...RNH BY 03Z...AND EAU AROUND 05Z.
SHIFTED THE TIMING BACK ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS BEFORE MAKING MORE CHANGES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KT ACROSS SRN MN
WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE STORMS PUSH IN. WINDS SHOULD PEAK BY
MID AFTERNOON.

KMSP...IT IS LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL IMPACT MSP A BIT LATER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLIER. LEFT A LARGE WINDOW FOR VCTS AND A TEMPO
WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN FURTHER UPDATES. INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE
AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-048>062-064>068-073>075-082.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 010922
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SE WINDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING WED MORNING. SITES MOST IMPACTED BY THE WINDS ON
WED ARE KRWF AND KMSP. NAM SOLUTION THIS EVENING WAS A TAD SLOWER
ON THE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED AFTERNOON WITH THE TIMING ADJUSTED
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN INITIAL BKN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM NEAR KRWF TO EAST OF KSTC AROUND 22Z...SPREAD ACROSS
KMSP AND KRNH IN THE 23Z-01Z TIME FRAME AND INTO KEAU AFTER 02Z.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WNW WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

KMSP...STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WED STILL INDICATED FROM
18Z-22Z WITH 24G33KT FORECAST. TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 23Z-01Z
PERIOD WITH SHRA FROM 01Z-03Z. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AFTER
02/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE
AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ043>045-048>062-064>068-073>075.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 010922
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER THIS
SEASON CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
80F ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEEP
MIXING...AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KT GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE SOURCE OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE H900-800MB LAYER. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER...UP THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING THIS MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAIL TO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND STRONG WINDS.

CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 4PM...AS
THE HIRES MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN NE UP THROUGH
NORTHWEST WI. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL/WIND
INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY WIND 1-2HRS AFTER INITIATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR POPS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WESTWARD SOLUTION...BUT ADVANCED
THE PRECIP FASTER IN ANTICIPATION THAT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PROPAGATE THE LINE FASTER THEN THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION BY 09Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG CAA AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 700 MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW. GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WIND REACHING SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE OTHERS ARE A TAD MORE RESERVED. NONETHELESS...COULD
SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 KT AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. RH WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY. CONSULT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THAT THREAT.

WIND WILL EASE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY/. A FAST MOVING WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MN/WI. MOST OF IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
BORDERING WFO DLH.

MODELS DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SIDE AND THE GFS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GFS
HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
ANY SPECIFICS YET...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SE WINDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING WED MORNING. SITES MOST IMPACTED BY THE WINDS ON
WED ARE KRWF AND KMSP. NAM SOLUTION THIS EVENING WAS A TAD SLOWER
ON THE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED AFTERNOON WITH THE TIMING ADJUSTED
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN INITIAL BKN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM NEAR KRWF TO EAST OF KSTC AROUND 22Z...SPREAD ACROSS
KMSP AND KRNH IN THE 23Z-01Z TIME FRAME AND INTO KEAU AFTER 02Z.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WNW WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

KMSP...STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WED STILL INDICATED FROM
18Z-22Z WITH 24G33KT FORECAST. TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 23Z-01Z
PERIOD WITH SHRA FROM 01Z-03Z. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AFTER
02/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE
AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STRONG WEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET HIT MOST BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WETTER
FUELS THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ043>045-048>062-064>068-073>075.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 010347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1047 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SE WINDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING WED MORNING. SITES MOST IMPACTED BY THE WINDS ON
WED ARE KRWF AND KMSP. NAM SOLUTION THIS EVENING WAS A TAD SLOWER
ON THE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED AFTERNOON WITH THE TIMING ADJUSTED
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN INITIAL BKN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM NEAR KRWF TO EAST OF KSTC AROUND 22Z...SPREAD ACROSS
KMSP AND KRNH IN THE 23Z-01Z TIME FRAME AND INTO KEAU AFTER 02Z.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WNW WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

KMSP...STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WED STILL INDICATED FROM
18Z-22Z WITH 24G33KT FORECAST. TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 23Z-01Z
PERIOD WITH SHRA FROM 01Z-03Z. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AFTER
02/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 010347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1047 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SE WINDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING WED MORNING. SITES MOST IMPACTED BY THE WINDS ON
WED ARE KRWF AND KMSP. NAM SOLUTION THIS EVENING WAS A TAD SLOWER
ON THE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED AFTERNOON WITH THE TIMING ADJUSTED
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN INITIAL BKN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM NEAR KRWF TO EAST OF KSTC AROUND 22Z...SPREAD ACROSS
KMSP AND KRNH IN THE 23Z-01Z TIME FRAME AND INTO KEAU AFTER 02Z.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WNW WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

KMSP...STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WED STILL INDICATED FROM
18Z-22Z WITH 24G33KT FORECAST. TSRA CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE 23Z-01Z
PERIOD WITH SHRA FROM 01Z-03Z. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AFTER
02/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS IN THE MRNG BCMG W 20G35 KTS IN THE AFTN.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 010034
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
734 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM KRWF THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHWARD. GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 40 TO 45
KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY AS WELL. SPEEDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN KRWF...KMSP AND KRNH IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME AND THEN
SPREADING ESE THROUGH THE EVENING. HENCE...PROB GROUPS ARE IN NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...INDICATED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 24G33KT BETWEEN 18Z
AND 22Z WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 010034
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
734 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM KRWF THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHWARD. GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 40 TO 45
KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY AS WELL. SPEEDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN KRWF...KMSP AND KRNH IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME AND THEN
SPREADING ESE THROUGH THE EVENING. HENCE...PROB GROUPS ARE IN NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...INDICATED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 24G33KT BETWEEN 18Z
AND 22Z WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 312026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS BEING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...STRENGTHENING
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE BKN DECK OVER WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WESTERN WI THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE FROM LIGHT
SPEEDS TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COULD BE APPROACHING 30 KTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN /KRWF/...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH KRWF THE FIRST SITE TO BE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED.

KMSP...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 9KFT MOVE INTO THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS /20-25KFT/ PREVAIL TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
INTO THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPEEDS
DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 22Z AND STAY THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SHRA/TS CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSR. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 312026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS BEING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...STRENGTHENING
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE BKN DECK OVER WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WESTERN WI THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE FROM LIGHT
SPEEDS TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COULD BE APPROACHING 30 KTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN /KRWF/...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH KRWF THE FIRST SITE TO BE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED.

KMSP...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 9KFT MOVE INTO THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS /20-25KFT/ PREVAIL TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
INTO THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPEEDS
DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 22Z AND STAY THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SHRA/TS CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSR. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 312026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS BEING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...STRENGTHENING
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE BKN DECK OVER WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WESTERN WI THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE FROM LIGHT
SPEEDS TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COULD BE APPROACHING 30 KTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN /KRWF/...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH KRWF THE FIRST SITE TO BE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED.

KMSP...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 9KFT MOVE INTO THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS /20-25KFT/ PREVAIL TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
INTO THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPEEDS
DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 22Z AND STAY THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SHRA/TS CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSR. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311743
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS BEING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...STRENGTHENING
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE BKN DECK OVER WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WESTERN WI THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE FROM LIGHT
SPEEDS TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COULD BE APPROACHING 30 KTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN /KRWF/...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH KRWF THE FIRST SITE TO BE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED.

KMSP...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 9KFT MOVE INTO THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS /20-25KFT/ PREVAIL TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
INTO THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPEEDS
DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 22Z AND STAY THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SHRA/TS CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSR. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311743
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS BEING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...STRENGTHENING
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE BKN DECK OVER WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WESTERN WI THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE FROM LIGHT
SPEEDS TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COULD BE APPROACHING 30 KTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN /KRWF/...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH KRWF THE FIRST SITE TO BE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED.

KMSP...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 9KFT MOVE INTO THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS /20-25KFT/ PREVAIL TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
INTO THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPEEDS
DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 22Z AND STAY THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SHRA/TS CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSR. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311743
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS BEING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...STRENGTHENING
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE BKN DECK OVER WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WESTERN WI THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE FROM LIGHT
SPEEDS TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COULD BE APPROACHING 30 KTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN /KRWF/...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH KRWF THE FIRST SITE TO BE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED.

KMSP...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 9KFT MOVE INTO THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS /20-25KFT/ PREVAIL TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
INTO THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPEEDS
DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 22Z AND STAY THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SHRA/TS CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSR. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 311312
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
812 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG IS HANGING TOUGH IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AND WE`LL END UP VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TODAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. IN REALITY...THIS WILL
PROBABLY HAPPEN OVER 2-3 HOUR PERIOD...PERHAPS EVEN GOING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE WEATHER TURNS MUCH MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ045-053-
     063.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311312
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
812 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG IS HANGING TOUGH IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AND WE`LL END UP VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TODAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. IN REALITY...THIS WILL
PROBABLY HAPPEN OVER 2-3 HOUR PERIOD...PERHAPS EVEN GOING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE WEATHER TURNS MUCH MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ045-053-
     063.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 311312
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
812 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG IS HANGING TOUGH IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AND WE`LL END UP VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TODAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. IN REALITY...THIS WILL
PROBABLY HAPPEN OVER 2-3 HOUR PERIOD...PERHAPS EVEN GOING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE WEATHER TURNS MUCH MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ045-053-
     063.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 311312
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
812 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG IS HANGING TOUGH IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AND WE`LL END UP VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TODAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. IN REALITY...THIS WILL
PROBABLY HAPPEN OVER 2-3 HOUR PERIOD...PERHAPS EVEN GOING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE WEATHER TURNS MUCH MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ045-053-
     063.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 310926
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS FOG FORMATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NOW SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT. THEREFORE...LOWERED KEAU TO
3SM BY 08Z WITH A TEMPO THROUGH DAYBREAK TO 3/4SM ALONG WITH AN
MVFR CEILING. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KRNH
WHERE THE DURATION OF THE RAIN WAS LESS THAN AN HOUR...SO KEPT
THEM AT 5SM. OTHERWISE...VFR AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WNW ON TUESDAY 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ045-053-
     063.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 310926
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS MORNING THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF MID
CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE RESULT OF THE
LIGHT WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LITTLE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY HAS
LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EXTREME EASTERN MN. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COOL THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR...BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LITTLE WIND
AFTER A COOL START. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEEPENS IN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST SEVERE
WEATHER OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE IA/MN BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE NE/IA BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. FIRST OFF...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INITIALLY THIS
SEEMED OVERDONE BY THE MODELS WHEN SIMPLY LOOKING AT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THEY START OFF IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND QUICKLY
BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER
WINDS 30-35KTS...WITH 40-45KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THIS MIXING WOULD DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUICKLY ERODE
THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT THAT CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOES NOT APPLY
TO THIS EVENT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO
DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SITES...NAMELY KFSD/KRWF SHOW A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE H900-800MB LAYER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWAT INCREASES FROM AROUND 0.55 AT 7AM TO 0.85 BY 11AM. THIS
INCREASE IS BEFORE  THE MODEL GENERATES PRECIP...THUS MAKING A MORE
TRUE MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS NORTH/EASTWARD...IT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULT IN ML CAPE PROFILES OF AROUND 1000J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...INDUCING ASCENT AND COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND THEN INTITIATE CONVECTION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IN SUMMARY...THE FACT THAT THE 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXED DOWN
FROM AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THEY COME TO
FRUITION. THE TIMING OF THE OMEGA/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT
FALLS IS STILL SUSPECT. IF TOO SLOW...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL DISAPPEAR TOWARD SUNSET. LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS OFF THE NAM
BACK WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE. THEREFORE
FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS REAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/WI. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT
DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE HIRES 31.00
ARW/NMM SUPPORT THIS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH LOW RH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS FOG FORMATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NOW SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT. THEREFORE...LOWERED KEAU TO
3SM BY 08Z WITH A TEMPO THROUGH DAYBREAK TO 3/4SM ALONG WITH AN
MVFR CEILING. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KRNH
WHERE THE DURATION OF THE RAIN WAS LESS THAN AN HOUR...SO KEPT
THEM AT 5SM. OTHERWISE...VFR AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WNW ON TUESDAY 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ045-053-
     063.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 310346
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS FOG FORMATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NOW SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT. THEREFORE...LOWERED KEAU TO
3SM BY 08Z WITH A TEMPO THROUGH DAYBREAK TO 3/4SM ALONG WITH AN
MVFR CEILING. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KRNH
WHERE THE DURATION OF THE RAIN WAS LESS THAN AN HOUR...SO KEPT
THEM AT 5SM. OTHERWISE...VFR AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WNW ON TUESDAY 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 310346
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS FOG FORMATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NOW SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT. THEREFORE...LOWERED KEAU TO
3SM BY 08Z WITH A TEMPO THROUGH DAYBREAK TO 3/4SM ALONG WITH AN
MVFR CEILING. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KRNH
WHERE THE DURATION OF THE RAIN WAS LESS THAN AN HOUR...SO KEPT
THEM AT 5SM. OTHERWISE...VFR AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WNW ON TUESDAY 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 302350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KRNH AND KEAU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT RAIN
THAT FELL TODAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON THE MVFR VSBYS AND THAT WAS
INSERTED INTO BOTH TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NW ON TUESDAY WITH 12-15G20-25KTS COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 302350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KRNH AND KEAU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT RAIN
THAT FELL TODAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON THE MVFR VSBYS AND THAT WAS
INSERTED INTO BOTH TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NW ON TUESDAY WITH 12-15G20-25KTS COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 302350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KRNH AND KEAU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT RAIN
THAT FELL TODAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON THE MVFR VSBYS AND THAT WAS
INSERTED INTO BOTH TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NW ON TUESDAY WITH 12-15G20-25KTS COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 302350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KRNH AND KEAU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT RAIN
THAT FELL TODAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON THE MVFR VSBYS AND THAT WAS
INSERTED INTO BOTH TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NW ON TUESDAY WITH 12-15G20-25KTS COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. SHRA LKLY/CHC MVFR TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 25G40 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 302018
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE
EVENING PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 302018
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE
EVENING PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




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