Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMPX 040348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1048 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. THE
AIR MASS HASNT CHANGED AND THERE IS STILL A VERY HUMID LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. THERE WASNT ANY NEW RAIN TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT MEAN LESS FOG AND MORE
STRATUS. ARE LATEST THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH
400-1000FT CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN IA AND STRETCH N-NW
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN. THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND
AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME. WE THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR VIS RESTRICTION IN WISCONSIN GIVEN SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
THE CLIMATOLOGY OF FOG AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...

NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE
A PROBLEM COME TOMORROW MORNING. WE THINK A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
FIRST FORM TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AND THEN DRIFT IN NEAR THE
START OF THE MORNING RUSH. BY THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...WE HOPE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHOWING THEIR HAND AT THAT POINT. IF WERE LUCKY THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE AIRPORT WILL NOT SEE PROLONGED
IMPACTS. AT THIS POINT...ITS WORTH BRING IN IFR CEILINGS. THERES
ENOUGH EVIDENCE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1048 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. THE
AIR MASS HASNT CHANGED AND THERE IS STILL A VERY HUMID LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. THERE WASNT ANY NEW RAIN TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT MEAN LESS FOG AND MORE
STRATUS. ARE LATEST THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH
400-1000FT CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN IA AND STRETCH N-NW
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN. THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND
AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME. WE THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR VIS RESTRICTION IN WISCONSIN GIVEN SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
THE CLIMATOLOGY OF FOG AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...

NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE
A PROBLEM COME TOMORROW MORNING. WE THINK A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
FIRST FORM TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AND THEN DRIFT IN NEAR THE
START OF THE MORNING RUSH. BY THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...WE HOPE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHOWING THEIR HAND AT THAT POINT. IF WERE LUCKY THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE AIRPORT WILL NOT SEE PROLONGED
IMPACTS. AT THIS POINT...ITS WORTH BRING IN IFR CEILINGS. THERES
ENOUGH EVIDENCE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 032358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WHILE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS
HASNT CHANGED AND THERE IS STILL A VERY HUMID LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THERE WASNT ANY NEW RAIN TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT MEAN LESS FOG AND MORE STRATUS. ARE LATEST
THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH 400-1000FT CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN IA AND STRETCH N-NW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN.
THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH
TIME. WE THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR VIS RESTRICTION IN
WISCONSIN GIVEN SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND THE CLIMATOLOGY OF FOG
AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...

NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE
A PROBLEM COME TOMORROW MORNING. WE THINK A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
FIRST FORM TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AND THEN DRIFT IN NEAR THE
START OF THE MORNING RUSH. BY THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...WE HOPE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHOWING THEIR HAND AT THAT POINT. IF WERE LUCKY THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE AIRPORT WILL NOT SEE PROLONGED
IMPACTS. AT THIS POINT...ITS WORTH BRING IN IFR CEILINGS. THERES
ENOUGH EVIDENCE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WHILE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS
HASNT CHANGED AND THERE IS STILL A VERY HUMID LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THERE WASNT ANY NEW RAIN TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT MEAN LESS FOG AND MORE STRATUS. ARE LATEST
THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH 400-1000FT CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN IA AND STRETCH N-NW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN.
THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH
TIME. WE THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR VIS RESTRICTION IN
WISCONSIN GIVEN SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND THE CLIMATOLOGY OF FOG
AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...

NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE
A PROBLEM COME TOMORROW MORNING. WE THINK A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
FIRST FORM TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AND THEN DRIFT IN NEAR THE
START OF THE MORNING RUSH. BY THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...WE HOPE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHOWING THEIR HAND AT THAT POINT. IF WERE LUCKY THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE AIRPORT WILL NOT SEE PROLONGED
IMPACTS. AT THIS POINT...ITS WORTH BRING IN IFR CEILINGS. THERES
ENOUGH EVIDENCE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 032358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WHILE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS
HASNT CHANGED AND THERE IS STILL A VERY HUMID LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THERE WASNT ANY NEW RAIN TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT MEAN LESS FOG AND MORE STRATUS. ARE LATEST
THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH 400-1000FT CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN IA AND STRETCH N-NW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN.
THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH
TIME. WE THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR VIS RESTRICTION IN
WISCONSIN GIVEN SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND THE CLIMATOLOGY OF FOG
AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...

NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE
A PROBLEM COME TOMORROW MORNING. WE THINK A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
FIRST FORM TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AND THEN DRIFT IN NEAR THE
START OF THE MORNING RUSH. BY THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...WE HOPE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHOWING THEIR HAND AT THAT POINT. IF WERE LUCKY THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE AIRPORT WILL NOT SEE PROLONGED
IMPACTS. AT THIS POINT...ITS WORTH BRING IN IFR CEILINGS. THERES
ENOUGH EVIDENCE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 032358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WHILE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS
HASNT CHANGED AND THERE IS STILL A VERY HUMID LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THERE WASNT ANY NEW RAIN TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT MEAN LESS FOG AND MORE STRATUS. ARE LATEST
THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH 400-1000FT CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN IA AND STRETCH N-NW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN.
THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH
TIME. WE THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR VIS RESTRICTION IN
WISCONSIN GIVEN SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND THE CLIMATOLOGY OF FOG
AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...

NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE
A PROBLEM COME TOMORROW MORNING. WE THINK A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL
FIRST FORM TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AND THEN DRIFT IN NEAR THE
START OF THE MORNING RUSH. BY THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...WE HOPE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHOWING THEIR HAND AT THAT POINT. IF WERE LUCKY THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE AIRPORT WILL NOT SEE PROLONGED
IMPACTS. AT THIS POINT...ITS WORTH BRING IN IFR CEILINGS. THERES
ENOUGH EVIDENCE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF BY THIS
POINT...WITH A FEW TAF SITES STILL LINGERING IN THE
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL SCATTER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AGAIN IS TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. A LITTLE MORE WIND TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
INHIBIT THE VERY LOW VIS FROM DEVELOPING. VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH...BUT GOING VFR
AGAIN AROUND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 032111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF BY THIS
POINT...WITH A FEW TAF SITES STILL LINGERING IN THE
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL SCATTER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AGAIN IS TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. A LITTLE MORE WIND TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
INHIBIT THE VERY LOW VIS FROM DEVELOPING. VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH...BUT GOING VFR
AGAIN AROUND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031812
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF BY THIS
POINT...WITH A FEW TAF SITES STILL LINGERING IN THE
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL SCATTER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AGAIN IS TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. A LITTLE MORE WIND TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
INHIBIT THE VERY LOW VIS FROM DEVELOPING. VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH...BUT GOING VFR
AGAIN AROUND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031812
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF BY THIS
POINT...WITH A FEW TAF SITES STILL LINGERING IN THE
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL SCATTER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AGAIN IS TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. A LITTLE MORE WIND TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
INHIBIT THE VERY LOW VIS FROM DEVELOPING. VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH...BUT GOING VFR
AGAIN AROUND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 031812
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF BY THIS
POINT...WITH A FEW TAF SITES STILL LINGERING IN THE
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL SCATTER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AGAIN IS TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. A LITTLE MORE WIND TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
INHIBIT THE VERY LOW VIS FROM DEVELOPING. VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH...BUT GOING VFR
AGAIN AROUND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031812
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF BY THIS
POINT...WITH A FEW TAF SITES STILL LINGERING IN THE
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL SCATTER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AGAIN IS TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. A LITTLE MORE WIND TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
INHIBIT THE VERY LOW VIS FROM DEVELOPING. VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH...BUT GOING VFR
AGAIN AROUND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD





000
FXUS63 KMPX 031114
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS BLANKETED THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY MID MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE DAY. LATER TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG/STRATUS...BUT ONLY WENT MVFR SINCE IT IS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
AN IFR/LIFR CLOUD BACK TO THE SOUTH OF KMSP HAS NOW CREPT UP TO
MSP...AND SHOULD LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING RUSH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO GO
BELOW VFR AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>070-073>078-083>085.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ015-016-
     024>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 031114
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS BLANKETED THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY MID MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE DAY. LATER TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG/STRATUS...BUT ONLY WENT MVFR SINCE IT IS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
AN IFR/LIFR CLOUD BACK TO THE SOUTH OF KMSP HAS NOW CREPT UP TO
MSP...AND SHOULD LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING RUSH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO GO
BELOW VFR AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>070-073>078-083>085.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ015-016-
     024>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031114
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS BLANKETED THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY MID MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE DAY. LATER TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG/STRATUS...BUT ONLY WENT MVFR SINCE IT IS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
AN IFR/LIFR CLOUD BACK TO THE SOUTH OF KMSP HAS NOW CREPT UP TO
MSP...AND SHOULD LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING RUSH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO GO
BELOW VFR AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>070-073>078-083>085.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ015-016-
     024>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030927
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE HASN`T BEEN AN AIR
MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MN AS WELL...WE THINK THAT THIS
STRATUS WILL ALSO EXPAND TONIGHT.

KMSP...GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT
FELL EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS /POSSIBLY FOG/ COME MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S
POSSIBLE THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY
AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030927
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY DAY.
THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT PER THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER MCS...WHICH COULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW
THIS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE
NAM NEST...WRFARW AND WRF NMM KEEP THE STORMS TO THE WEST. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS IF THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST SINCE THERE WILL BE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THAT MAKES HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI WILL START OUT WITH THE CWFA ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE UPR LVL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE E...ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW-NE FLOW TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ATOP THE AREA
STARTING LATE DAY FRI...MORE BUT PRONOUNCED SAT INTO SUN AS THE
UPR CUTOFF LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE ENE INTO SRN MANITOBA THRU SUN
NIGHT...BRINGING ALONG A SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A PROLONGED AND
PERSISTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION...TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 AND PWATS EASILY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AROUND 2
INCHES AT TIMES. THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY SUN
MRNG THEN GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EWD SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAKING THE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TIME PERIODS THE MOST LIKELY FOR HAVING
PRECIP COVERING THE ENTIRE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE LWR
TO MID 90S FOR FRI AND SAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE DEWPOINTS RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN...THEN HEAT INDEX
HEADLINES MAY WELL BE NEEDED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SRN CANADIAN SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY MON MRNG AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E COME MON
MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN...BUT ONLY FOR THE DAY ON MON AS
UPR LVL FLOW BECOME PREDOMINANTLY E-W ZONAL...MEANING THAT HIGH
PRES ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUE INTO WED.
WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PLAINS...A
WEAK SFC TROF IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ENEWD INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY WELL PROMOTE SCTD SHWRS ACRS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...BUT THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/ISENTROPIC SETUP RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. TSTM
CHANCES ARE DOWNPLAYED BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ELIMINATE
IT ALTOGETHER SO HAVE CAPPED TSTMS AS SLGT CHC. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE HASN`T BEEN AN AIR
MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MN AS WELL...WE THINK THAT THIS
STRATUS WILL ALSO EXPAND TONIGHT.

KMSP...GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT
FELL EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS /POSSIBLY FOG/ COME MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S
POSSIBLE THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY
AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030433
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1133 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE HASNT BEEN AN AIR
MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS
ALSO STRATUS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MN AS WELL...WE THINK THAT THIS
STRATUS WILL ALSO EXPAND TONIGHT.

KMSP...
GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS /POSSIBLY FOG/ COME MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S
POSSIBLE THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY
AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030433
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1133 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE HASNT BEEN AN AIR
MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS
ALSO STRATUS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MN AS WELL...WE THINK THAT THIS
STRATUS WILL ALSO EXPAND TONIGHT.

KMSP...
GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS /POSSIBLY FOG/ COME MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S
POSSIBLE THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY
AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030433
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1133 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE HASNT BEEN AN AIR
MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS
ALSO STRATUS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MN AS WELL...WE THINK THAT THIS
STRATUS WILL ALSO EXPAND TONIGHT.

KMSP...
GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS /POSSIBLY FOG/ COME MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S
POSSIBLE THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY
AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030433
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1133 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE HASNT BEEN AN AIR
MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS
ALSO STRATUS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MN AS WELL...WE THINK THAT THIS
STRATUS WILL ALSO EXPAND TONIGHT.

KMSP...
GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS /POSSIBLY FOG/ COME MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S
POSSIBLE THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY
AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AFTER A MORNING FILLED WITH RAIN IN MINNESOTA AND AN AFTERNOON
FILLED WITH RAIN IN WISCONSIN...THE TABLES ARE AGAIN SET FOR FOG
AND LOW STRATUS. THERE HAS BEEN AN AIR MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS THE RAIN CAME LATE TODAY AND THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME MENTION FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN MN AS WELL.

KMSP...

GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG COME TOMORROW MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S POSSIBLE
THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO...BUT
GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AFTER A MORNING FILLED WITH RAIN IN MINNESOTA AND AN AFTERNOON
FILLED WITH RAIN IN WISCONSIN...THE TABLES ARE AGAIN SET FOR FOG
AND LOW STRATUS. THERE HAS BEEN AN AIR MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS THE RAIN CAME LATE TODAY AND THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME MENTION FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN MN AS WELL.

KMSP...

GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG COME TOMORROW MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S POSSIBLE
THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO...BUT
GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AFTER A MORNING FILLED WITH RAIN IN MINNESOTA AND AN AFTERNOON
FILLED WITH RAIN IN WISCONSIN...THE TABLES ARE AGAIN SET FOR FOG
AND LOW STRATUS. THERE HAS BEEN AN AIR MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS THE RAIN CAME LATE TODAY AND THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME MENTION FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN MN AS WELL.

KMSP...

GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG COME TOMORROW MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S POSSIBLE
THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO...BUT
GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AFTER A MORNING FILLED WITH RAIN IN MINNESOTA AND AN AFTERNOON
FILLED WITH RAIN IN WISCONSIN...THE TABLES ARE AGAIN SET FOR FOG
AND LOW STRATUS. THERE HAS BEEN AN AIR MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS THE RAIN CAME LATE TODAY AND THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME MENTION FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN MN AS WELL.

KMSP...

GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG COME TOMORROW MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S POSSIBLE
THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO...BUT
GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 022122
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE ADDING A LOT MORE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. STORMS LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OLIVIA...
GLENCOE... LAKEVILLE AND RED WING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SO IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

KMSP...
FRONT WAS SOUTH OF LAKEVILLE AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KMSP THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CURRENT MVFR FORMED AFTER A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SOME CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS... THEREFORE IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MEAN THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT... WITH
CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KMPX 022122
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE ADDING A LOT MORE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. STORMS LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OLIVIA...
GLENCOE... LAKEVILLE AND RED WING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SO IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

KMSP...
FRONT WAS SOUTH OF LAKEVILLE AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KMSP THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CURRENT MVFR FORMED AFTER A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SOME CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS... THEREFORE IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MEAN THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT... WITH
CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 022122
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE ADDING A LOT MORE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. STORMS LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OLIVIA...
GLENCOE... LAKEVILLE AND RED WING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SO IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

KMSP...
FRONT WAS SOUTH OF LAKEVILLE AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KMSP THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CURRENT MVFR FORMED AFTER A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SOME CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS... THEREFORE IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MEAN THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT... WITH
CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 022122
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE ADDING A LOT MORE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. STORMS LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OLIVIA...
GLENCOE... LAKEVILLE AND RED WING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SO IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

KMSP...
FRONT WAS SOUTH OF LAKEVILLE AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KMSP THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CURRENT MVFR FORMED AFTER A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SOME CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS... THEREFORE IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MEAN THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT... WITH
CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KMPX 021803
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE ADDING A LOT MORE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. STORMS LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OLIVIA...
GLENCOE... LAKEVILLE AND RED WING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SO IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

KMSP...
FRONT WAS SOUTH OF LAKEVILLE AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KMSP THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CURRENT MVFR FORMED AFTER A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SOME CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS... THEREFORE IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MEAN THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT... WITH
CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KMPX 021803
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE ADDING A LOT MORE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. STORMS LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OLIVIA...
GLENCOE... LAKEVILLE AND RED WING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SO IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

KMSP...
FRONT WAS SOUTH OF LAKEVILLE AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KMSP THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CURRENT MVFR FORMED AFTER A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SOME CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS... THEREFORE IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MEAN THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT... WITH
CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021803
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE ADDING A LOT MORE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. STORMS LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OLIVIA...
GLENCOE... LAKEVILLE AND RED WING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SO IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

KMSP...
FRONT WAS SOUTH OF LAKEVILLE AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KMSP THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CURRENT MVFR FORMED AFTER A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SOME CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS... THEREFORE IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MEAN THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT... WITH
CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 020922
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
NORTHEAST. A FEW WIND GUST 20 TO 25 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THEM...
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTING. THESE STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KMSP...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 07/08Z AND LAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS. UNLESS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIP ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING PUSH.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS AFTERNOONS REDEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5G10 KT.
FRI...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10G20 KT.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10G20
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 012317
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... AND COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF ISSUES
AT KSTC OR KRWF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT AS A
BETTER UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND IS ABLE TO
WORK WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING... SO INCLUDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF TEMPOS WITH THE
00Z TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS... BUT DIDN/T INCLUDE IT AT
THIS POINT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST... WITH MAIN
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 012317
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... AND COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF ISSUES
AT KSTC OR KRWF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT AS A
BETTER UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND IS ABLE TO
WORK WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING... SO INCLUDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF TEMPOS WITH THE
00Z TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS... BUT DIDN/T INCLUDE IT AT
THIS POINT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST... WITH MAIN
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011503
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011503
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011503
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 010825
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGE MUCH... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONT TO OUR
WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT FEATURE... BUT DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. SOME
FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THINKING IT SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SITES WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL NOT THICKEN AS MUCH... AND PERHAPS AT KAXN WHERE THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MAY MOVE OUT IN TIME. SOME PCPN GETTING GOING OVER COLORADO
AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW... BUT AT THIS POINT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE AREA... SO DEFINITELY DON/T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER WE SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO AVOID THAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...999




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities