Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMPX 311056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.
500MB HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS MANITOBA
MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WITH THE SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE ST CROIX
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE NEAR TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY SUNDAY MORNING THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS
TRANSVERSING THE CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY
THE SYSTEM OFF TO OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING.
THAT PUTS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THE RIDGING
THAT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE PATTERN THEN QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTER. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SFC FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
THE MAIN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED FROM  THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL BRING
CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT850 MB MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND MORE
ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY MORNING.
THE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

KMSP...
NO DIFFERENCES FROM THE GENERAL DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 15G20 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SSW 5G10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 311056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.
500MB HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS MANITOBA
MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WITH THE SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE ST CROIX
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE NEAR TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY SUNDAY MORNING THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS
TRANSVERSING THE CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY
THE SYSTEM OFF TO OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING.
THAT PUTS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THE RIDGING
THAT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE PATTERN THEN QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTER. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SFC FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
THE MAIN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED FROM  THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL BRING
CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT850 MB MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND MORE
ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY MORNING.
THE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

KMSP...
NO DIFFERENCES FROM THE GENERAL DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 15G20 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SSW 5G10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 310927
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.
500MB HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS MANITOBA
MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WITH THE SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE ST CROIX
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE NEAR TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY SUNDAY MORNING THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS
TRANSVERSING THE CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY
THE SYSTEM OFF TO OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING.
THAT PUTS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THE RIDGING
THAT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE PATTERN THEN QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTER. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SFC FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
THE MAIN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED FROM  THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL BRING
CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT850 MB MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND MORE
ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BRISK NW WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WANING TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CLEARING HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KEAU...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CLOUDS WILL BE
THROUGH THIS SITE BY 06Z. HOWEVER...MORE VFR CLOUDINESS
(BKN035-045) OVER NORTHEAST MN WILL SLIDE SSE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE NAM CU RULE WHICH IS QUITE
NEGATIVE FOR WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING. HENCE...KRNH AND KEAU WILL
LIKELY SEE BKN035-045 DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN045 PASSING THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 09Z THEN 12-14
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 14-18 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SW 6-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 310351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ITS A CLASSIC FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GRAY SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS THAT ARE STARTING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
TWO SFC LOWS...ONE OVER NRN MO AND THE OTHER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
WITH A COLD FRONT JUST CLEARING ROCHESTER AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3 PM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE IS A 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WRN MN AS A
1039MB HIGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS HAVE
MENTIONED...THIS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE ARE
SEEING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF BOTH THE DYNAMIC /SEE LARGE POSITIVE
OMEGA VALUES/ AND ISENTROPIC VARIETY...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN A
BREAK IN THE STRATUS DECK THAT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NE NODAK AND
NW MN. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA OVERNIGHT. DID
NOT CHANGE LOWS MUCH TONIGHT AND WAS HESITANT TO GO ANY LOWER THAN
WHAT THE EXISTING FORECAST HAD FOR LOWS MAINLY BECAUSE WE HAVE SPENT
MOST OF THE DAY SLOWING DOWN THE DRYING OF DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR...THINK THE MAV/MET WITH THEIR UPPER
TEEN LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL MN ARE A BIT OVERDONE...THOUGH
STILL HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S...WITH EVERYONE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.

BESIDE THE CLOUDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CAA AS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM TIME TO TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THOSE REPORTS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVEN`T BEEN HARD ENOUGH TO EVEN
REQUIRE THE USE OF WIND SHIELD WIPERS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED
GOING FORECAST WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING LINGERING
ACROSS ERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING...BASICALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CAA AND OUT AHEAD OF THE WRN TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
WORKING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW...AIRMASS COMING IN WILL BE VERY DRY...SO WE WILL HAVE
CLEAR SKIES. 1KM MIXED LAYER DEWPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
NAM/GFS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW POCKETS HAVE
DEWPS MIX INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE FOR JUST 40 TOMORROW...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT
BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS LOOK LIKE. FAVORED THE BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AS IN THIS RECENT SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER WE HAVE RUN A BIT OF COOL
BIAS FOR FULL SUN DAYS. THERE IS A BRIGHT SPOT /BESIDE THE FULL
SUNSHINE/ FOR THE WEATHER TOMORROW AND IT IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE MPX CWA. WILL STILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING OVER WI...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BACK DOWN UNDER 10 MPH...SO AT LEAST
WE WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BLUSTERY WINDS AFTER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE FIRST REAL WIDESPREAD
HAD FREEZE THEN. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO WESTERN MN. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE WIND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  THIS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER AS MODELS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE
SPLIT FLOW NATURE TO THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POP TRENDS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FAST MOVING FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  THE NEXT ONE IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVE IN AROUND WEDNESDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BRISK NW WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WANING TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CLEARING HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KEAU...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CLOUDS WILL BE
THROUGH THIS SITE BY 06Z. HOWEVER...MORE VFR CLOUDINESS
(BKN035-045) OVER NORTHEAST MN WILL SLIDE SSE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE NAM CU RULE WHICH IS QUITE
NEGATIVE FOR WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING. HENCE...KRNH AND KEAU WILL
LIKELY SEE BKN035-045 DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN045 PASSING THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 09Z THEN 12-14
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 14-18 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SW 6-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 310351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ITS A CLASSIC FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GRAY SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS THAT ARE STARTING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
TWO SFC LOWS...ONE OVER NRN MO AND THE OTHER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
WITH A COLD FRONT JUST CLEARING ROCHESTER AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3 PM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE IS A 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WRN MN AS A
1039MB HIGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS HAVE
MENTIONED...THIS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE ARE
SEEING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF BOTH THE DYNAMIC /SEE LARGE POSITIVE
OMEGA VALUES/ AND ISENTROPIC VARIETY...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN A
BREAK IN THE STRATUS DECK THAT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NE NODAK AND
NW MN. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA OVERNIGHT. DID
NOT CHANGE LOWS MUCH TONIGHT AND WAS HESITANT TO GO ANY LOWER THAN
WHAT THE EXISTING FORECAST HAD FOR LOWS MAINLY BECAUSE WE HAVE SPENT
MOST OF THE DAY SLOWING DOWN THE DRYING OF DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR...THINK THE MAV/MET WITH THEIR UPPER
TEEN LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL MN ARE A BIT OVERDONE...THOUGH
STILL HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S...WITH EVERYONE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.

BESIDE THE CLOUDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CAA AS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM TIME TO TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THOSE REPORTS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVEN`T BEEN HARD ENOUGH TO EVEN
REQUIRE THE USE OF WIND SHIELD WIPERS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED
GOING FORECAST WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING LINGERING
ACROSS ERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING...BASICALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CAA AND OUT AHEAD OF THE WRN TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
WORKING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW...AIRMASS COMING IN WILL BE VERY DRY...SO WE WILL HAVE
CLEAR SKIES. 1KM MIXED LAYER DEWPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
NAM/GFS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW POCKETS HAVE
DEWPS MIX INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE FOR JUST 40 TOMORROW...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT
BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS LOOK LIKE. FAVORED THE BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AS IN THIS RECENT SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER WE HAVE RUN A BIT OF COOL
BIAS FOR FULL SUN DAYS. THERE IS A BRIGHT SPOT /BESIDE THE FULL
SUNSHINE/ FOR THE WEATHER TOMORROW AND IT IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE MPX CWA. WILL STILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING OVER WI...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BACK DOWN UNDER 10 MPH...SO AT LEAST
WE WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BLUSTERY WINDS AFTER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE FIRST REAL WIDESPREAD
HAD FREEZE THEN. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO WESTERN MN. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE WIND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  THIS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER AS MODELS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE
SPLIT FLOW NATURE TO THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POP TRENDS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FAST MOVING FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  THE NEXT ONE IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVE IN AROUND WEDNESDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BRISK NW WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WANING TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CLEARING HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KEAU...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CLOUDS WILL BE
THROUGH THIS SITE BY 06Z. HOWEVER...MORE VFR CLOUDINESS
(BKN035-045) OVER NORTHEAST MN WILL SLIDE SSE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE NAM CU RULE WHICH IS QUITE
NEGATIVE FOR WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING. HENCE...KRNH AND KEAU WILL
LIKELY SEE BKN035-045 DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN045 PASSING THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 09Z THEN 12-14
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 14-18 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SW 6-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 302349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
649 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ITS A CLASSIC FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GRAY SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS THAT ARE STARTING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
TWO SFC LOWS...ONE OVER NRN MO AND THE OTHER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
WITH A COLD FRONT JUST CLEARING ROCHESTER AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3 PM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE IS A 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WRN MN AS A
1039MB HIGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS HAVE
MENTIONED...THIS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE ARE
SEEING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF BOTH THE DYNAMIC /SEE LARGE POSITIVE
OMEGA VALUES/ AND ISENTROPIC VARIETY...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN A
BREAK IN THE STRATUS DECK THAT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NE NODAK AND
NW MN. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA OVERNIGHT. DID
NOT CHANGE LOWS MUCH TONIGHT AND WAS HESITANT TO GO ANY LOWER THAN
WHAT THE EXISTING FORECAST HAD FOR LOWS MAINLY BECAUSE WE HAVE SPENT
MOST OF THE DAY SLOWING DOWN THE DRYING OF DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR...THINK THE MAV/MET WITH THEIR UPPER
TEEN LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL MN ARE A BIT OVERDONE...THOUGH
STILL HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S...WITH EVERYONE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.

BESIDE THE CLOUDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CAA AS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM TIME TO TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THOSE REPORTS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVEN`T BEEN HARD ENOUGH TO EVEN
REQUIRE THE USE OF WIND SHIELD WIPERS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED
GOING FORECAST WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING LINGERING
ACROSS ERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING...BASICALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CAA AND OUT AHEAD OF THE WRN TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
WORKING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW...AIRMASS COMING IN WILL BE VERY DRY...SO WE WILL HAVE
CLEAR SKIES. 1KM MIXED LAYER DEWPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
NAM/GFS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW POCKETS HAVE
DEWPS MIX INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE FOR JUST 40 TOMORROW...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT
BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS LOOK LIKE. FAVORED THE BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AS IN THIS RECENT SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER WE HAVE RUN A BIT OF COOL
BIAS FOR FULL SUN DAYS. THERE IS A BRIGHT SPOT /BESIDE THE FULL
SUNSHINE/ FOR THE WEATHER TOMORROW AND IT IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE MPX CWA. WILL STILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING OVER WI...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BACK DOWN UNDER 10 MPH...SO AT LEAST
WE WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BLUSTERY WINDS AFTER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE FIRST REAL WIDESPREAD
HAD FREEZE THEN. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO WESTERN MN. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE WIND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  THIS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER AS MODELS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE
SPLIT FLOW NATURE TO THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POP TRENDS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FAST MOVING FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  THE NEXT ONE IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVE IN AROUND WEDNESDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BRISK NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
REACHING 24-28 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING QUICKLY AS VERY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SWEEPS IN. IN FACT...CLEARING HAS ALMOST REACHED
CENTRAL MN. OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT AND THE WIND WILL
CALM DOWN AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

KMSP...A VFR CEILING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS EVENING WITH SCT-
CLR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. SKC FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 14-18 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SW 6-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 302015
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ITS A CLASSIC FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GRAY SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS THAT ARE STARTING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
TWO SFC LOWS...ONE OVER NRN MO AND THE OTHER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
WITH A COLD FRONT JUST CLEARING ROCHESTER AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3 PM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE IS A 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WRN MN AS A
1039MB HIGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS HAVE
MENTIONED...THIS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE ARE
SEEING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF BOTH THE DYNAMIC /SEE LARGE POSITIVE
OMEGA VALUES/ AND ISENTROPIC VARIETY...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN A
BREAK IN THE STRATUS DECK THAT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NE NODAK AND
NW MN. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA OVERNIGHT. DID
NOT CHANGE LOWS MUCH TONIGHT AND WAS HESITANT TO GO ANY LOWER THAN
WHAT THE EXISTING FORECAST HAD FOR LOWS MAINLY BECAUSE WE HAVE SPENT
MOST OF THE DAY SLOWING DOWN THE DRYING OF DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR...THINK THE MAV/MET WITH THEIR UPPER
TEEN LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL MN ARE A BIT OVERDONE...THOUGH
STILL HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S...WITH EVERYONE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.

BESIDE THE CLOUDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CAA AS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM TIME TO TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THOSE REPORTS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVEN`T BEEN HARD ENOUGH TO EVEN
REQUIRE THE USE OF WIND SHIELD WIPERS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED
GOING FORECAST WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING LINGERING
ACROSS ERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING...BASICALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CAA AND OUT AHEAD OF THE WRN TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
WORKING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW...AIRMASS COMING IN WILL BE VERY DRY...SO WE WILL HAVE
CLEAR SKIES. 1KM MIXED LAYER DEWPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
NAM/GFS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW POCKETS HAVE
DEWPS MIX INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE FOR JUST 40 TOMORROW...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT
BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS LOOK LIKE. FAVORED THE BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AS IN THIS RECENT SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER WE HAVE RUN A BIT OF COOL
BIAS FOR FULL SUN DAYS. THERE IS A BRIGHT SPOT /BESIDE THE FULL
SUNSHINE/ FOR THE WEATHER TOMORROW AND IT IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE MPX CWA. WILL STILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING OVER WI...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BACK DOWN UNDER 10 MPH...SO AT LEAST
WE WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BLUSTERY WINDS AFTER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE FIRST REAL WIDESPREAD
HAD FREEZE THEN. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO WESTERN MN. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE WIND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  THIS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER AS MODELS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE
SPLIT FLOW NATURE TO THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POP TRENDS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FAST MOVING FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  THE NEXT ONE IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVE IN AROUND WEDNESDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS HOW LOW WILL CIGS GO THE
AFTN/EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT GRANITE FALLS UP TO DULUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IMPACTING THE MPX TERMINALS...STARTED TO SHY
AWAY FROM THERE BEING MUCH MVFR CIGS...INSTEAD KEEPING MOST
TERMINALS LOW END VFR WITH A TEMPO MVFR. STARTING TO SEE SOME
STRONG CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OVER SRN MANITOBA...SO LIKE
THE CLEARING TREND IN THE 12Z TAFS AND KEPT THAT MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED. ONLY PLACE THAT MAY HAVE LINGERING CLOUD ISSUES INTO
THE MORNING IS EAU...AS THEY WILL HAVE A LOW LEVEL WIND FEED
COMING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO THEY COULD SEE STRATOCU LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO MN
FRIDAY MORNING...SO WE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF PRETTY QUICK LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS MN. HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS DRY...BUT
WE ARE SEEING AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE COMING DOWN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER COMING IN...THOUGH REPORTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY SPARSE...SO HAVE
KEPT TERMINALS DRY.

KMSP...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME
TEMPORARY CIGS DOWN TO 020 WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z
AND 00Z. EXISTING TAF LOOKED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
WINDS...SO MADE FEW CHANGES WITH THEM. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING...SO LOOKS GOOD FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 12-18 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG










000
FXUS63 KMPX 301820
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE AREA OF DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF -RA WAS ACROSS SW MN AS OF
230 AM WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT
MADISON. THIS AREA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHRTWV MOVING
QUICKLY SE ACROSS SE SD. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SC/EC MN HAS
LED TO ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THE AREA OF -RA MOVED EASTWARD.
ANOTHER AREA OF -RA...MIXED WITH -SN WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC
LOW NEAR KGFK. ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN...STRONG CAA EVIDENT
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL ENHANCE THE SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS WEAK LOW AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS MN TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED...INITIAL AIR MASS IS VERY DRY BLW 5K...BUT MOISTENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW.
THEREFORE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF COLD AIR...-RA WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS CENTRAL/EC
MN AND WC WI TODAY. THIS WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST WRF MODELS
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY PATTERN. THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BEHIND IT DURING THE AFTN. AS WINDS INCREASE
AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUED THIS MORNING CHANGED VERY LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS /DAY SHIFT/ FORECAST. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PRETTY GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY. A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35KTS IN
WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS THAT ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND -11C BY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER
TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN COOL OVERALL. MN/WI WILL FIND
ITSELF UNDER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. BY
06-12Z SUNDAY THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS TRANSVERSING THE
CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM OFF TO
OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. THAT PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT IN THE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THAT IS WHY /EVEN
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT/ WE REALLY CAN`T GO HIGHER
THAN 30% FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
LIGHT UP A STATE OR TWO TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A QUICK COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT...WITH THE ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING BACK WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
GFS KEEPING MN/WI IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE`S ABOUT A 20C
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS HOW LOW WILL CIGS GO THE
AFTN/EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT GRANITE FALLS UP TO DULUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IMPACTING THE MPX TERMINALS...STARTED TO SHY
AWAY FROM THERE BEING MUCH MVFR CIGS...INSTEAD KEEPING MOST
TERMINALS LOW END VFR WITH A TEMPO MVFR. STARTING TO SEE SOME
STRONG CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OVER SRN MANITOBA...SO LIKE
THE CLEARING TREND IN THE 12Z TAFS AND KEPT THAT MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED. ONLY PLACE THAT MAY HAVE LINGERING CLOUD ISSUES INTO
THE MORNING IS EAU...AS THEY WILL HAVE A LOW LEVEL WIND FEED
COMING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO THEY COULD SEE STRATOCU LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO MN
FRIDAY MORNING...SO WE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF PRETTY QUICK LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS MN. HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS DRY...BUT
WE ARE SEEING AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE COMING DOWN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER COMING IN...THOUGH REPORTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY SPARSE...SO HAVE
KEPT TERMINALS DRY.

KMSP...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME
TEMPORARY CIGS DOWN TO 020 WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z
AND 00Z. EXISTING TAF LOOKED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
WINDS...SO MADE FEW CHANGES WITH THEM. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING...SO LOOKS GOOD FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 12-18 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 301043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE AREA OF DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF -RA WAS ACROSS SW MN AS OF
230 AM WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT
MADISON. THIS AREA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHRTWV MOVING
QUICKLY SE ACROSS SE SD. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SC/EC MN HAS
LED TO ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THE AREA OF -RA MOVED EASTWARD.
ANOTHER AREA OF -RA...MIXED WITH -SN WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC
LOW NEAR KGFK. ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN...STRONG CAA EVIDENT
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL ENHANCE THE SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS WEAK LOW AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS MN TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED...INITIAL AIR MASS IS VERY DRY BLW 5K...BUT MOISTENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW.
THEREFORE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF COLD AIR...-RA WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS CENTRAL/EC
MN AND WC WI TODAY. THIS WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST WRF MODELS
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY PATTERN. THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BEHIND IT DURING THE AFTN. AS WINDS INCREASE
AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUED THIS MORNING CHANGED VERY LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS /DAY SHIFT/ FORECAST. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PRETTY GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY. A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35KTS IN
WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS THAT ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND -11C BY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER
TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN COOL OVERALL. MN/WI WILL FIND
ITSELF UNDER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. BY
06-12Z SUNDAY THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS TRANSVERSING THE
CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM OFF TO
OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. THAT PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT IN THE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THAT IS WHY /EVEN
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT/ WE REALLY CAN`T GO HIGHER
THAN 30% FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
LIGHT UP A STATE OR TWO TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A QUICK COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT...WITH THE ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING BACK WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
GFS KEEPING MN/WI IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE`S ABOUT A 20C
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE LOWER CIGS IN
NW MN AND WINDS...WC MN WILL SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARND 14-16Z.
ACROSS SW/CENTRAL MN ARND 16-18Z...AND THRU MOST OF EC/SC MN AND
WC WI BETWEEN 19-21Z. INITIALLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NNW ARND
10 KTS...WITH STRONGER WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-30 KTS WITHIN AN HR
OR TWO. MVFR CIGS SEEM LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW LOW THE CLD CIGS
BECOME DURING THE AFTN HRS. MOST OF THE MVFR CIGS AFFECTING MPX
TAFS WILL BE AFT 18Z...SO THE NEXT SET OF TAFS WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND CLD BASES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND
SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HRS FROM NW TO SE.

KMSP...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ARND 18-19Z...WITH SOME VCSH ALONG IT.
HOWEVER...VSBYS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM ON ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS.
WORSE CONDS WILL OCCUR AFT 18Z SO TIMING ON MVFR CIGS WILL BE
UPDATED AS NEEDED. STRONG N/NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AN HR OR TWO
AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS LIKELY
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 301043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE AREA OF DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF -RA WAS ACROSS SW MN AS OF
230 AM WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT
MADISON. THIS AREA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHRTWV MOVING
QUICKLY SE ACROSS SE SD. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SC/EC MN HAS
LED TO ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THE AREA OF -RA MOVED EASTWARD.
ANOTHER AREA OF -RA...MIXED WITH -SN WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC
LOW NEAR KGFK. ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN...STRONG CAA EVIDENT
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL ENHANCE THE SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS WEAK LOW AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS MN TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED...INITIAL AIR MASS IS VERY DRY BLW 5K...BUT MOISTENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW.
THEREFORE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF COLD AIR...-RA WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS CENTRAL/EC
MN AND WC WI TODAY. THIS WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST WRF MODELS
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY PATTERN. THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BEHIND IT DURING THE AFTN. AS WINDS INCREASE
AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUED THIS MORNING CHANGED VERY LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS /DAY SHIFT/ FORECAST. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PRETTY GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY. A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35KTS IN
WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS THAT ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND -11C BY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER
TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN COOL OVERALL. MN/WI WILL FIND
ITSELF UNDER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. BY
06-12Z SUNDAY THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS TRANSVERSING THE
CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM OFF TO
OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. THAT PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT IN THE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THAT IS WHY /EVEN
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT/ WE REALLY CAN`T GO HIGHER
THAN 30% FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
LIGHT UP A STATE OR TWO TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A QUICK COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT...WITH THE ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING BACK WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
GFS KEEPING MN/WI IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE`S ABOUT A 20C
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE LOWER CIGS IN
NW MN AND WINDS...WC MN WILL SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARND 14-16Z.
ACROSS SW/CENTRAL MN ARND 16-18Z...AND THRU MOST OF EC/SC MN AND
WC WI BETWEEN 19-21Z. INITIALLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NNW ARND
10 KTS...WITH STRONGER WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-30 KTS WITHIN AN HR
OR TWO. MVFR CIGS SEEM LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW LOW THE CLD CIGS
BECOME DURING THE AFTN HRS. MOST OF THE MVFR CIGS AFFECTING MPX
TAFS WILL BE AFT 18Z...SO THE NEXT SET OF TAFS WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND CLD BASES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND
SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HRS FROM NW TO SE.

KMSP...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ARND 18-19Z...WITH SOME VCSH ALONG IT.
HOWEVER...VSBYS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM ON ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS.
WORSE CONDS WILL OCCUR AFT 18Z SO TIMING ON MVFR CIGS WILL BE
UPDATED AS NEEDED. STRONG N/NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AN HR OR TWO
AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS LIKELY
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 300927
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE AREA OF DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF -RA WAS ACROSS SW MN AS OF
230 AM WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT
MADISON. THIS AREA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHRTWV MOVING
QUICKLY SE ACROSS SE SD. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SC/EC MN HAS
LED TO ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THE AREA OF -RA MOVED EASTWARD.
ANOTHER AREA OF -RA...MIXED WITH -SN WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC
LOW NEAR KGFK. ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN...STRONG CAA EVIDENT
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL ENHANCE THE SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS WEAK LOW AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS MN TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED...INITIAL AIR MASS IS VERY DRY BLW 5K...BUT MOISTENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW.
THEREFORE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF COLD AIR...-RA WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS CENTRAL/EC
MN AND WC WI TODAY. THIS WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST WRF MODELS
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY PATTERN. THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BEHIND IT DURING THE AFTN. AS WINDS INCREASE
AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUED THIS MORNING CHANGED VERY LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS /DAY SHIFT/ FORECAST. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PRETTY GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY. A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35KTS IN
WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS THAT ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND -11C BY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER
TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN COOL OVERALL. MN/WI WILL FIND
ITSELF UNDER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. BY
06-12Z SUNDAY THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS TRANSVERSING THE
CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM OFF TO
OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. THAT PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT IN THE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THAT IS WHY /EVEN
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT/ WE REALLY CAN`T GO HIGHER
THAN 30% FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
LIGHT UP A STATE OR TWO TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A QUICK COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT...WITH THE ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING BACK WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
GFS KEEPING MN/WI IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE`S ABOUT A 20C
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL PROGRESS ESE
OVERNIGHT. KAXN MAY SEE SOME -RA BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
PRECIP TO SHRINK HEADING INTO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. A SECOND THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE VCSH TIMING IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH ON A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. FEW CHANGES MADE WITH THE TIMING ON THE CEILINGS.
NW TO N WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXPERIENCING BRISK WINDS (15-20 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING 23-28 KNOTS) LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (20Z ONWARD).

KMSP...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON VFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. AN MVFR
CEILING IS STILL EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 31/02Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ON NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 300400
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO BUDGE TODAY AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A SFC RIDGE THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING
ACROSS WRN MN. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL MN IN THE UPPER 30S
TODAY...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY SCREAMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD IN
LAST NIGHT AS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
CERTAINLY DO NOT INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN A 40 POP TONIGHT. STILL THE BIG ISSUE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT
IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AS
SEEN IN THE 29.12 SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES
AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN MN
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT...BUT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES EAST AS
THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO IOWA.

WHAT THIS WAVE WILL DO IS SPREAD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6K
AND 10K FEET BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SRLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROPS TONIGHT TO BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MIX A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT CAN MAKE TO THE
GROUND NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED...WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER.

FOR TOMORROW...THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...AS THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MARKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZY NW WINDS AND CAA. THOUGH THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL...THE CAA COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
EVEN ALLOW THEM TO DROP A DEGREES OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE ON A COLD NOTE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN CWA
INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DROP OFF.
THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
CWA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF PARTIALLY SPLIT AND TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT ENOUGH COLD MAY
MAY WORK IN FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED/CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET
SNOW...MAINLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL PROGRESS ESE
OVERNIGHT. KAXN MAY SEE SOME -RA BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
PRECIP TO SHRINK HEADING INTO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. A SECOND THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE VCSH TIMING IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH ON A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. FEW CHANGES MADE WITH THE TIMING ON THE CEILINGS.
NW TO N WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXPERIENCING BRISK WINDS (15-20 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING 23-28 KNOTS) LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (20Z ONWARD).

KMSP...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON VFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. AN MVFR
CEILING IS STILL EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 31/02Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ON NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 292353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO BUDGE TODAY AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A SFC RIDGE THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING
ACROSS WRN MN. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL MN IN THE UPPER 30S
TODAY...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY SCREAMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD IN
LAST NIGHT AS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
CERTAINLY DO NOT INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN A 40 POP TONIGHT. STILL THE BIG ISSUE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT
IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AS
SEEN IN THE 29.12 SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES
AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN MN
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT...BUT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES EAST AS
THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO IOWA.

WHAT THIS WAVE WILL DO IS SPREAD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6K
AND 10K FEET BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SRLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROPS TONIGHT TO BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MIX A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT CAN MAKE TO THE
GROUND NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED...WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER.

FOR TOMORROW...THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...AS THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MARKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZY NW WINDS AND CAA. THOUGH THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL...THE CAA COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
EVEN ALLOW THEM TO DROP A DEGREES OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE ON A COLD NOTE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN CWA
INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DROP OFF.
THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
CWA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF PARTIALLY SPLIT AND TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT ENOUGH COLD MAY
MAY WORK IN FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED/CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET
SNOW...MAINLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRATUS MEANDERING FROM KAXN-KSTC-KRNH AND
KEAU WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD MOVES EAST. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING FAST AND MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH WAS INCLUDED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE LOW AND WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING (KAXN) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS (KEAU). NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE
WESTERN TAF SITES ALONG WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS BUT NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A BAND OF
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL LAST FOR
ABOUT 6 HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
STILL EXPECTED FOR 4 OR 5 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN LIFTING TO
VFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT VEERING NW AFT 14Z AND THEN MORE NORTHERLY (340) FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING
22 KNOTS. NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY BY THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 292008
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO BUDGE TODAY AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A SFC RIDGE THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING
ACROSS WRN MN. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL MN IN THE UPPER 30S
TODAY...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY SCREAMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD IN
LAST NIGHT AS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
CERTAINLY DO NOT INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN A 40 POP TONIGHT. STILL THE BIG ISSUE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT
IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AS
SEEN IN THE 29.12 SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES
AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN MN
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT...BUT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES EAST AS
THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO IOWA.

WHAT THIS WAVE WILL DO IS SPREAD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6K
AND 10K FEET BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SRLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROPS TONIGHT TO BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MIX A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT CAN MAKE TO THE
GROUND NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED...WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER.

FOR TOMORROW...THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...AS THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MARKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZY NW WINDS AND CAA. THOUGH THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL...THE CAA COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
EVEN ALLOW THEM TO DROP A DEGREES OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE ON A COLD NOTE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN CWA
INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DROP OFF.
THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
CWA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF PARTIALLY SPLIT AND TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT ENOUGH COLD MAY
MAY WORK IN FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED/CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET
SNOW...MAINLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS
SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD
BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE
LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN
CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS
ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER
THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE.
BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND
OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE
SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU
MORNING.

KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE
TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE
EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR
OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING
STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE
WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG










000
FXUS63 KMPX 291754
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS TODAY AS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/LATE OCTOBER
SUN ANGLE MAY HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTN. CAA WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...SO TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD OR FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE STARTING TO RISE BY
LATE MORNING. LOW TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HOLDING ON...AND TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S.

A FAST MOVING SHRTWV THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW. INITIALLY...DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME.
THIS INITIAL DRY AIR MASS MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
MAX WET BULB TEMPS /1 KM LAYER/ DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
EARLIER...THE MAIN TYPE COULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AS THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS AS THE SHRTWV
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WRF MODELS SIMULATED
PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH SOME MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN/WC WI DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS MPX CWA LATE
TONIGHT...INITIAL DRY MASS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMTS. A
GENERAL FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH
MOSTLY TRACE AMTS ACROSS MPX CWA. WILL CONTINUE 20/30/40% POPS AS
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE IN
THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE PROTOTYPICAL FALL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE BLUSTERY DAYS.
OVERALL...STILL A DRY PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THAT DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
RAIN.

THE PRECIP EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE RAPID
BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30-35KTS IN WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
THAT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND
-11C BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAST COLD
OUTBREAK OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS SAW 40S FOR HIGHS...THAT WAS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF ABOUT
-4C. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...WE ARE NOW APPROACHING
NOVEMBER AND HAVE LOST BETWEEN 60-90 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT SINCE
THAT EARLY OCTOBER COLD SNAP...NOT TO MENTION WE ALSO HAVE A LOWER
SUN ANGLE. A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE COLDEST
HALLOWEEN SINCE 2006 WHEN THERE WAS A HIGH OF 36 IN THE TWIN
CITIES...A HIGH OF 33 IN ST. CLOUD...AND 38 IN EAU CLAIRE. A
BLUSTERY NORTH FLOW WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S DURING
FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN
COOL OVERALL. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MN/WI WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN
BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH BREAKS OFF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MODEL TIMING AND LOCATION ON THIS TROUGH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A 150-HR FORECAST. THIS TROUGH IS THE REASON FOR
THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK - DOESN`T APPEAR
TO BE A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS
SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD
BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE
LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN
CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS
ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER
THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE.
BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND
OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE
SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU
MORNING.

KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE
TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE
EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR
OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING
STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE
WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 291031
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
531 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS TODAY AS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/LATE OCTOBER
SUN ANGLE MAY HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTN. CAA WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...SO TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD OR FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE STARTING TO RISE BY
LATE MORNING. LOW TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HOLDING ON...AND TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S.

A FAST MOVING SHRTWV THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW. INITIALLY...DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME.
THIS INITIAL DRY AIR MASS MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
MAX WET BULB TEMPS /1 KM LAYER/ DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
EARLIER...THE MAIN TYPE COULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AS THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS AS THE SHRTWV
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WRF MODELS SIMULATED
PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH SOME MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN/WC WI DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS MPX CWA LATE
TONIGHT...INITIAL DRY MASS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMTS. A
GENERAL FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH
MOSTLY TRACE AMTS ACROSS MPX CWA. WILL CONTINUE 20/30/40% POPS AS
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE IN
THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE PROTOTYPICAL FALL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE BLUSTERY DAYS.
OVERALL...STILL A DRY PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THAT DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
RAIN.

THE PRECIP EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE RAPID
BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30-35KTS IN WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
THAT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND
-11C BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAST COLD
OUTBREAK OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS SAW 40S FOR HIGHS...THAT WAS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF ABOUT
-4C. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...WE ARE NOW APPROACHING
NOVEMBER AND HAVE LOST BETWEEN 60-90 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT SINCE
THAT EARLY OCTOBER COLD SNAP...NOT TO MENTION WE ALSO HAVE A LOWER
SUN ANGLE. A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE COLDEST
HALLOWEEN SINCE 2006 WHEN THERE WAS A HIGH OF 36 IN THE TWIN
CITIES...A HIGH OF 33 IN ST. CLOUD...AND 38 IN EAU CLAIRE. A
BLUSTERY NORTH FLOW WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S DURING
FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN
COOL OVERALL. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MN/WI WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN
BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH BREAKS OFF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MODEL TIMING AND LOCATION ON THIS TROUGH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A 150-HR FORECAST. THIS TROUGH IS THE REASON FOR
THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK - DOESN`T APPEAR
TO BE A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF MPX TAFS UNTIL
18Z WITH A SLOW TREND OF VFR DURING THE AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEAU MAY NOT GET ABV 3K UNTIL AFT 23Z BASED ON THE SFC RIDGE
HOLDING BACK ACROSS MN. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS UNTIL 15Z. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
W/SW DURING THE AFTN...WITH A MORE S/SSE FLOW OVERNIGHT. -SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MN...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN MN BY 9-12Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TONIGHT.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN WITH VFR CONDS DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EARLY AT 20
KTS...THEN BACK TO THE WEST/SW THIS AFTN UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING
MORE S/SSE OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AFT 9Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND CIGS. CHC OF MVFR CIGS
THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU AFTN...VFR. WINDS BECOMING N/NNW AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS EARLY...DECREASING TO 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 290923
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS TODAY AS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/LATE OCTOBER
SUN ANGLE MAY HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTN. CAA WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...SO TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD OR FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE STARTING TO RISE BY
LATE MORNING. LOW TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HOLDING ON...AND TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S.

A FAST MOVING SHRTWV THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW. INITIALLY...DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME.
THIS INITIAL DRY AIR MASS MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
MAX WET BULB TEMPS /1 KM LAYER/ DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
EARLIER...THE MAIN TYPE COULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AS THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS AS THE SHRTWV
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WRF MODELS SIMULATED
PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH SOME MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN/WC WI DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS MPX CWA LATE
TONIGHT...INITIAL DRY MASS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMTS. A
GENERAL FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH
MOSTLY TRACE AMTS ACROSS MPX CWA. WILL CONTINUE 20/30/40% POPS AS
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE IN
THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE PROTOTYPICAL FALL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE BLUSTERY DAYS.
OVERALL...STILL A DRY PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THAT DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
RAIN.

THE PRECIP EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE RAPID
BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30-35KTS IN WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
THAT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND
-11C BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAST COLD
OUTBREAK OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS SAW 40S FOR HIGHS...THAT WAS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF ABOUT
-4C. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...WE ARE NOW APPROACHING
NOVEMBER AND HAVE LOST BETWEEN 60-90 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT SINCE
THAT EARLY OCTOBER COLD SNAP...NOT TO MENTION WE ALSO HAVE A LOWER
SUN ANGLE. A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE COLDEST
HALLOWEEN SINCE 2006 WHEN THERE WAS A HIGH OF 36 IN THE TWIN
CITIES...A HIGH OF 33 IN ST. CLOUD...AND 38 IN EAU CLAIRE. A
BLUSTERY NORTH FLOW WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S DURING
FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN
COOL OVERALL. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MN/WI WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN
BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH BREAKS OFF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MODEL TIMING AND LOCATION ON THIS TROUGH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A 150-HR FORECAST. THIS TROUGH IS THE REASON FOR
THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK - DOESN`T APPEAR
TO BE A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KAXN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR
KAXN/KSTC/KRHN/KEAU THRU THE NEXT 6 HRS...WITH MOST AREAS HOLDING
BLW 3K UNTIL AFT 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THE MVFR CIGS LIFT
TO VFR ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY AFTN. WHEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC IN MN WILL BE KEY ON WHEN THE CLDS
BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND LIFT TO VFR. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
INFORMATION...THE SFC RIDGE WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
AFT 18Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE SE WED
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY HAVE -SHRA AT KAXN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRODUCE VCSH FOR NOW. WNW/NW WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WEST/WSW BY THE AFTN...THEN MORE SW/S DURING
THE EVENING.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS /2K TO 2.5K/ CONTINUING THRU THE
NEXT 6 HRS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE MVFR CIGS RISE TO VFR
OR SCATTER OUT BY THE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND WITH MVFR
CIGS UNTIL 18-21Z OR HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF VFR OR SCT030 AFT 18Z IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MIXING OUT
FASTER. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY UNTIL 9Z...WITH A SLOW TREND
OF WNW WINDS DECREASING TO 7=9 KTS BY THE MID/LATE MORNING. AFT 18Z
WINDS WILL BE W/WSW UNDER 6 KTS...BECOMING MORE SW/S LATE IN THE
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS BECOMING NW.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT









000
FXUS63 KMPX 290515
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THEN TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST PER TREND ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP. STILL HAVE A LOBE OF VORTICITY CIRCULATING OVER THE NORTH
AND WILL PIVOT/DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO TONIGHT.  LAYERED CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE GIVING WAY TO LIFTING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER THE
DAKOTAS.  EROSION VERY SLOW WITH ONLY MINOR HOLES DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST.  IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR INTO OUR CWA INTO TONIGHT. WILL TRY
AND TREND TO SCATTERED LATE IN THE WEST.  STILL SOME LIGHT -SHRA OR
DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. WILL CARRY
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL. THE BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S COMMON.  NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO
WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SUBTLE RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND MORE AGREED ON BY THE
MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS ALIGN NICELY TO
PRODUCE MODEST LIFT MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MN BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE PRESENT
FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH NEBRASKA...OFFERING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MOVING INTO WESTERN
MN. MEANWHILE...POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SUBTLE WAVE IS
MOISTURE. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS WAVE. SATURATION IS LIKELY BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...AND
WITH THE QUICK MOVING PACE OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT QPF IS IN THE
FORECAST...UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO MAIN FEATURES TO DISCUSS IN THIS
PERIOD; AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO FOLLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH /WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A CLOSED LOW/ IS APPARENT IN FAR NORTHERN
CANADA ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF NUNAVUT IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND BRING A PUNCH OF COLD AIR WITH IT. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS THE AXIS OF
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 850H TEMPS NEAR AND POSSIBLY COLDER THAN -10C ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED TO DIVE INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LINGER THURSDAY...WITH EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. MEANWHILE...JUST UPSTREAM
OF THIS WAVE WILL BE A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DEVELOPED IN
NORTHERN CANADA AND SANK SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS HIGH AND ALLOW IT TO SINK DIRECTLY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT AND BY WHERE THE WINDS GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR SO FORECAST LOWS FOR FRIDAY ARE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA...WITH THE COLDEST LOWS EXPECTED IN
WESTERN MN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES THERE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID
20S...BUT COULD EASILY SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR 20 IF WINDS TRULY
GO CALM. WITH SUCH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO LOW...KNOCKED ANOTHER DEGREE OF THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 FOR HIGHS
LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET.

SO...HALLOWEEN EVENING WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S...AND QUICKLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S AFTER
DARK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THAT TIME AS THE SURFACE HIGH
ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE HOPING TO SPEND
THE EVENING OUTDOORS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE INTO WISCONSIN...MEANING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FA WILL BE LIKELIEST TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS THAT MORNING.
LOW TO MID 20S LOOK LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN WESTERN MN THANKS TO A
LITTLE SOUTHERLY WIND.

BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WITH THIS DEVELOPING
LOW...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH...THIS WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE WINDY FOR
MOST. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. THE GFS/EC SEEM
TO HAVE FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BUT HANDLING IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES.
THE LATEST EC HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE WARM SECTOR
WHICH MEANS OUR FA COULD BE SHUT OUT OF ANY PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES WANT TO PRODUCE WAA PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR AREA. THE EC KEEPS ALL OF ITS WARM SECTOR
PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US AS WE MAY BE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH STILL INDICATES POPS FOR OUR
AREA...BUT MUCH IS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE WE CAN DEFINITIVELY SAY IT WILL BE EITHER WET OR DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KAXN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR
KAXN/KSTC/KRHN/KEAU THRU THE NEXT 6 HRS...WITH MOST AREAS HOLDING
BLW 3K UNTIL AFT 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THE MVFR CIGS LIFT
TO VFR ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY AFTN. WHEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC IN MN WILL BE KEY ON WHEN THE CLDS
BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND LIFT TO VFR. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
INFORMATION...THE SFC RIDGE WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
AFT 18Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE SE WED
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY HAVE -SHRA AT KAXN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRODUCE VCSH FOR NOW. WNW/NW WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WEST/WSW BY THE AFTN...THEN MORE SW/S DURING
THE EVENING.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS /2K TO 2.5K/ CONTINUING THRU THE
NEXT 6 HRS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE MVFR CIGS RISE TO VFR
OR SCATTER OUT BY THE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND WITH MVFR
CIGS UNTIL 18-21Z OR HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF VFR OR SCT030 AFT 18Z IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MIXING OUT
FASTER. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY UNTIL 9Z...WITH A SLOW TREND
OF WNW WINDS DECREASING TO 7=9 KTS BY THE MID/LATE MORNING. AFT 18Z
WINDS WILL BE W/WSW UNDER 6 KTS...BECOMING MORE SW/S LATE IN THE
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS BECOMING NW.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 290053
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
753 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THEN TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST PER TREND ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP. STILL HAVE A LOBE OF VORTICITY CIRCULATING OVER THE NORTH
AND WILL PIVOT/DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO TONIGHT.  LAYERED CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE GIVING WAY TO LIFTING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER THE
DAKOTAS.  EROSION VERY SLOW WITH ONLY MINOR HOLES DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST.  IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR INTO OUR CWA INTO TONIGHT. WILL TRY
AND TREND TO SCATTERED LATE IN THE WEST.  STILL SOME LIGHT -SHRA OR
DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. WILL CARRY
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL. THE BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S COMMON.  NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO
WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SUBTLE RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND MORE AGREED ON BY THE
MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS ALIGN NICELY TO
PRODUCE MODEST LIFT MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MN BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE PRESENT
FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH NEBRASKA...OFFERING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MOVING INTO WESTERN
MN. MEANWHILE...POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SUBTLE WAVE IS
MOISTURE. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS WAVE. SATURATION IS LIKELY BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...AND
WITH THE QUICK MOVING PACE OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT QPF IS IN THE
FORECAST...UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO MAIN FEATURES TO DISCUSS IN THIS
PERIOD; AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO FOLLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH /WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A CLOSED LOW/ IS APPARENT IN FAR NORTHERN
CANADA ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF NUNAVUT IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND BRING A PUNCH OF COLD AIR WITH IT. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS THE AXIS OF
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 850H TEMPS NEAR AND POSSIBLY COLDER THAN -10C ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED TO DIVE INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LINGER THURSDAY...WITH EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. MEANWHILE...JUST UPSTREAM
OF THIS WAVE WILL BE A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DEVELOPED IN
NORTHERN CANADA AND SANK SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS HIGH AND ALLOW IT TO SINK DIRECTLY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT AND BY WHERE THE WINDS GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR SO FORECAST LOWS FOR FRIDAY ARE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA...WITH THE COLDEST LOWS EXPECTED IN
WESTERN MN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES THERE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID
20S...BUT COULD EASILY SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR 20 IF WINDS TRULY
GO CALM. WITH SUCH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO LOW...KNOCKED ANOTHER DEGREE OF THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 FOR HIGHS
LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET.

SO...HALLOWEEN EVENING WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S...AND QUICKLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S AFTER
DARK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THAT TIME AS THE SURFACE HIGH
ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE HOPING TO SPEND
THE EVENING OUTDOORS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE INTO WISCONSIN...MEANING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FA WILL BE LIKELIEST TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS THAT MORNING.
LOW TO MID 20S LOOK LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN WESTERN MN THANKS TO A
LITTLE SOUTHERLY WIND.

BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WITH THIS DEVELOPING
LOW...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH...THIS WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE WINDY FOR
MOST. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. THE GFS/EC SEEM
TO HAVE FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BUT HANDLING IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES.
THE LATEST EC HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE WARM SECTOR
WHICH MEANS OUR FA COULD BE SHUT OUT OF ANY PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES WANT TO PRODUCE WAA PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR AREA. THE EC KEEPS ALL OF ITS WARM SECTOR
PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US AS WE MAY BE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH STILL INDICATES POPS FOR OUR
AREA...BUT MUCH IS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE WE CAN DEFINITIVELY SAY IT WILL BE EITHER WET OR DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BROAD SWIRL OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THESE ARE LOW VFR OVER OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE TONIGHT... WITH A COUPLE OF CAVEATS.
ONE IS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF EROSION FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PIVOT SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOBE SWINGING
AROUND UPPER LOW. THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL THIRD OF MN INTO WISC...GENERALLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON. EXPECT VFR BY LATE WED MORNING IN MN WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
DURING AFTERNOON IN WISC. W TO NW WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.

KMSP...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3000-4000 AGL RANGE THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TIME WHEN IT DROPS AT OR BELOW
3000...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MUCH LESS THAN AVERAGE SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THAT IN ANY TEMPO GROUP THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
BATCH OF LOWER CEILINGS IN NORTHERN MN SHOULD REACH KMSP EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE
2000-3000 FEET AGL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR IT TO ARRIVE BY
06Z BUT AM MUCH MORE CONFIDENT OF IT BEING AFTER 09Z. THIS SHOULD
LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY LATE WED MORNING. QUIET VFR WEATHER
THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS BECOMING NW.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KMPX 282052
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THEN TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST PER TREND ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP. STILL HAVE A LOBE OF VORTICITY CIRCULATING OVER THE NORTH
AND WILL PIVOT/DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO TONIGHT.  LAYERED CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE GIVING WAY TO LIFTING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER THE
DAKOTAS.  EROSION VERY SLOW WITH ONLY MINOR HOLES DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST.  IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR INTO OUR CWA INTO TONIGHT. WILL TRY
AND TREND TO SCATTERED LATE IN THE WEST.  STILL SOME LIGHT -SHRA OR
DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. WILL CARRY
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL. THE BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S COMMON.  NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO
WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SUBTLE RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND MORE AGREED ON BY THE
MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS ALIGN NICELY TO
PRODUCE MODEST LIFT MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MN BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE PRESENT
FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH NEBRASKA...OFFERING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MOVING INTO WESTERN
MN. MEANWHILE...POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SUBTLE WAVE IS
MOISTURE. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS WAVE. SATURATION IS LIKELY BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...AND
WITH THE QUICK MOVING PACE OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT QPF IS IN THE
FORECAST...UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO MAIN FEATURES TO DISCUSS IN THIS
PERIOD; AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO FOLLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH /WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A CLOSED LOW/ IS APPARENT IN FAR NORTHERN
CANADA ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF NUNAVUT IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND BRING A PUNCH OF COLD AIR WITH IT. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS THE AXIS OF
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. 850H TEMPS NEAR AND POSSIBLY COLDER THAN -10C ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED TO DIVE INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LINGER THURSDAY...WITH EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. MEANWHILE...JUST UPSTREAM
OF THIS WAVE WILL BE A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DEVELOPED IN
NORTHERN CANADA AND SANK SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THIS HIGH AND ALLOW IT TO SINK DIRECTLY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT AND BY WHERE THE WINDS GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR SO FORECAST LOWS FOR FRIDAY ARE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA...WITH THE COLDEST LOWS EXPECTED IN
WESTERN MN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES THERE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID
20S...BUT COULD EASILY SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR 20 IF WINDS TRULY
GO CALM. WITH SUCH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO LOW...KNOCKED ANOTHER DEGREE OF THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 FOR HIGHS
LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET.

SO...HALLOWEEN EVENING WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S...AND QUICKLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S AFTER
DARK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THAT TIME AS THE SURFACE HIGH
ADVANCES EASTWARD...SO THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE HOPING TO SPEND
THE EVENING OUTDOORS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE INTO WISCONSIN...MEANING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FA WILL BE LIKELIEST TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS THAT MORNING.
LOW TO MID 20S LOOK LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN WESTERN MN THANKS TO A
LITTLE SOUTHERLY WIND.

BEYOND SATURDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WITH THIS DEVELOPING
LOW...AND THE DEPARTING HIGH...THIS WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE WINDY FOR
MOST. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. THE GFS/EC SEEM
TO HAVE FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BUT HANDLING IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES.
THE LATEST EC HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE WARM SECTOR
WHICH MEANS OUR FA COULD BE SHUT OUT OF ANY PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES WANT TO PRODUCE WAA PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR AREA. THE EC KEEPS ALL OF ITS WARM SECTOR
PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US AS WE MAY BE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH STILL INDICATES POPS FOR OUR
AREA...BUT MUCH IS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE WE CAN DEFINITIVELY SAY IT WILL BE EITHER WET OR DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO PERHAPS LOWER END VFR THROUGH 00Z MOST AREAS. COLD
UPPER LOW WILL CIRCULATE MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW INTO TONIGHT.
SOME INDICATION ON THE NAM OF LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
THE SREF WASNT TOO KEEN ON THIS DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
FOUND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION LOWER MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z. SOME -SHRA MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOULDNT BE SIGNIFICANT
HOWEVER. EXPECT VFR BY LATE WED MORNING WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS A BIT GUSTY
22-28KT DURING THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WED.

KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIG TO BECOME VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN SOME
THREAT OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT PER NAM
TRENDS. THE SREF IS NOT AS DRAMATIC IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LIKELY MENTION SOME LOWER CIGS BUT TRY AND MAINTAIN VFR INTO THE
MORNING...THROUGH WED. SOME THREAT OF A BRIEF -SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...DWE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 281618
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS THIS MRNG PUTS A NOW-PHASED LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH CDFNT XTDNG SWWD THRU THE
OH RIVER VALLEY...MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...A TRAILING SFC TROUGH XTNDS WNW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF MI/MN. ALOFT...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IS ROTATING EWD OVER
NRN MN. THESE FEATURES ARE XPCTD TO SHIFT EWD TDA...BUT THE ISSUE
IS THE TRAILING SFC TROF. THIS TROF WILL SWING SEWD AROUND THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW...AND WILL AID IN MAINTAINING NOT ONLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER MN/WI BUT ALSO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
OVER NRN MN...N OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. ONCE THIS TROF BEGINS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW...COLD POOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
WEAK LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO SPREAD SOME OF THESE SHOWERS SWD INTO
CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COVERAGE...ONLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS...THE WRAPAROUND FLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT INCLUDING -RA MENTION FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
ANY AND ALL PRECIP WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THIS EVE WITH STEADILY
CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG AS THE STACKED LOW PRES
SYSTEM DRIVES INTO ERN CANADA AND SFC HIGH PRES ARRIVES FROM THE
E.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CAA WILL COMMENCE IN FULL FORCE BY LATER TDA
INTO TNGT AS PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN COLDER
CANADIAN AIR TO THE AREA. VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE FROM THIS
MRNG/S LOWS TO THIS AFTN/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTN ONLY HITTING THE MID-UPR 40S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN REMAINING IN
THE LWR 40S IN NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT
AND DEEP NW FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE SFC ON UP...TEMPERATURES TNGT
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPR 20S IN WRN MN TO THE MID 30S IN
ERN MN AND WRN WI.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TDA IS STRONG WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND INCOMING HIGH
PRES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCRS TO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS HITTING 30-40 MPH. THESE SPEEDS LOOK TO FALL JUST
SHORT OF WIND ADVY CRITERIA...BUT WILL STILL CERTAINLY MAKE FOR
BREEZY CONDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WHETHER THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...OR A BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS.

AS TODAYS SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV WILL
RIDE SSE ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A STRONG JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND CONTINUE
TO DIG THIS SHRTWV FURTHER TO THE S/SE ACROSS THE DEEP SE CONUS BY
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS REFORMING AND
DIGGING FURTHER ACROSS CALIFORNIA...THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK
SHRTWV WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY WILL BRUSH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR A
STRONGER SHRTWV THEN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THE DRIER AIR MASS
IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A FEW HUNDREDTHS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP.

THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING AS
BOTH THICKNESS VALUES BOTTOM OUT AND CAA SLOWLY LESSENS. HIGHS
NEAR 40 FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY WHICH IS ABV
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A MORE SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. STILL
CONCERN WITH THE STRONG TROUGH/STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND AND HOW IT HOLDS BACK OR EVEN BLOCKS THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM MOVING TO FAR EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE MODELS...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS
LOW...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF AN UNSETTLED WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO PERHAPS LOWER END VFR THROUGH 00Z MOST AREAS. COLD
UPPER LOW WILL CIRCULATE MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW INTO TONIGHT.
SOME INDICATION ON THE NAM OF LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
THE SREF WASNT TOO KEEN ON THIS DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE
FOUND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION LOWER MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z. SOME -SHRA MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOULDNT BE SIGNIFICANT
HOWEVER. EXPECT VFR BY LATE WED MORNING WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS A BIT GUSTY
22-28KT DURING THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WED.

KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIG TO BECOME VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN SOME
THREAT OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT PER NAM
TRENDS. THE SREF IS NOT AS DRAMATIC IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LIKELY MENTION SOME LOWER CIGS BUT TRY AND MAINTAIN VFR INTO THE
MORNING...THROUGH WED. SOME THREAT OF A BRIEF -SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities