Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMPX 030345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WITH ITS NRN
EXTENSION OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE
WFO MPX CWFA...THOUGH SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVER
NRN MN AND STAY AWAY FROM CENTRAL-SRN MN. WINDS WILL BACK FROM W
TO SW AND S...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THIS
REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF TASTE OF MID-SUMMER BACK TO THE REGION
FOR WED.

A POTENT TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW TNGT...SHIFTING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES SLOWLY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS UPR TROF WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH A LOW PRES CENTER EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS THRU
THE DAKOTAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ATTENDANT FROM THIS LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE A TRAILING CDFNT OFF TO THE SW. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER
WILL BE A NEWD MOVG WMFNT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.
STRONG WAA MAY AID SOME SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN MN IN THE
MRNG BUT THIS WMFNT WILL CREATE MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR TO THE S...
INCLUDING DEWPOINTS HITTING THE LWR 70S. STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE WMFNT SHOULD HELP BREAK
CAPPING AND PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT STARTING IN THE AFTN OVER
CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD THRU THE REST OF
THE AFTN INTO WED EVE. MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS HINTED
AT BY LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM THE GFS AND NAM. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...
THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE CENTRAL MN...EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ALL OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE DEEP LIFT OF ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL A PRIMARY
HAZARD...PARTICULARLY WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING ISOLD TORNADOES AS 0-3KM
HELICITIES ARE IN THE 350-500 M2/S2 RANGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL BE STARTED BY THE NWD-MOVING WMFNT MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION THAT CAN BE RECEIVED BETWEEN THE
ACTIVITY IN SWRN MN AND THE AFTN BREAKING OF THE CAP. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED EVE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT OFF TO THE E WED NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...THE SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW- MID 80S...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS ARND 70 WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH THE CDFNT STILL TO THE W OF THE MPX CWFA
THRU WED NIGHT...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WED NIGHT
PERIOD AS LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. FOR MUCH OF SE-E MN INTO WRN WI...THE
PAST 10 DAYS HAVE SEEN THOSE AREAS RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN...
MAKING FOR A VERY SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY MORE...CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY AS PWATS RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES BY WED AFTN AND EVE
OVER ERN MN AND WRN WI. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
BUT HAVING FLOODING RAINS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HOW
HEAVY RAIN MAY IMPACT MAIN STEM RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE CHIPPEWA
RIVER IN WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOOKENDING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 1000MB
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER A
TAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY UNTIL THE PASSING COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SPARKS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED MID LEVEL
CAP/...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS...QUITE FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGHS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE...WHILE LOWS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ON MONDAY...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...INDUCING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH 02.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND FACILITATE FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING AND
FUTURE MODEL RUNS CAN PIN DOWN WHEN AND IF HIGHER POPS WOULD BE
JUSTIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERNIGHT SCENARIO OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. PRETTY GOOD CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH KRWF
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST PAST KAXN AND KSTC
DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BRUSH THE TWIN CITIES AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING JUST TO
THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO KRNH. THIS PUSHES
ESE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL BUT KRWF WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE
STRONG INFLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...CONCERN IS
INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS AT OR BEYOND THE END OF THE
TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMSP WHICH GOES THROUGH 12Z. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE TACKLED WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS. IN ADDITION...MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT 5 TO
10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE HIGH ON VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY THEN SCT TSRA IN THE
AFTN. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 4-8 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 030345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WITH ITS NRN
EXTENSION OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE
WFO MPX CWFA...THOUGH SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVER
NRN MN AND STAY AWAY FROM CENTRAL-SRN MN. WINDS WILL BACK FROM W
TO SW AND S...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THIS
REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF TASTE OF MID-SUMMER BACK TO THE REGION
FOR WED.

A POTENT TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW TNGT...SHIFTING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES SLOWLY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS UPR TROF WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH A LOW PRES CENTER EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS THRU
THE DAKOTAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ATTENDANT FROM THIS LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE A TRAILING CDFNT OFF TO THE SW. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER
WILL BE A NEWD MOVG WMFNT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.
STRONG WAA MAY AID SOME SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN MN IN THE
MRNG BUT THIS WMFNT WILL CREATE MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR TO THE S...
INCLUDING DEWPOINTS HITTING THE LWR 70S. STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE WMFNT SHOULD HELP BREAK
CAPPING AND PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT STARTING IN THE AFTN OVER
CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD THRU THE REST OF
THE AFTN INTO WED EVE. MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS HINTED
AT BY LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM THE GFS AND NAM. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...
THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE CENTRAL MN...EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ALL OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE DEEP LIFT OF ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL A PRIMARY
HAZARD...PARTICULARLY WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING ISOLD TORNADOES AS 0-3KM
HELICITIES ARE IN THE 350-500 M2/S2 RANGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL BE STARTED BY THE NWD-MOVING WMFNT MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION THAT CAN BE RECEIVED BETWEEN THE
ACTIVITY IN SWRN MN AND THE AFTN BREAKING OF THE CAP. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED EVE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT OFF TO THE E WED NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...THE SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW- MID 80S...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS ARND 70 WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH THE CDFNT STILL TO THE W OF THE MPX CWFA
THRU WED NIGHT...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WED NIGHT
PERIOD AS LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. FOR MUCH OF SE-E MN INTO WRN WI...THE
PAST 10 DAYS HAVE SEEN THOSE AREAS RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN...
MAKING FOR A VERY SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY MORE...CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY AS PWATS RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES BY WED AFTN AND EVE
OVER ERN MN AND WRN WI. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
BUT HAVING FLOODING RAINS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HOW
HEAVY RAIN MAY IMPACT MAIN STEM RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE CHIPPEWA
RIVER IN WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOOKENDING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 1000MB
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER A
TAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY UNTIL THE PASSING COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SPARKS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED MID LEVEL
CAP/...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS...QUITE FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGHS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE...WHILE LOWS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ON MONDAY...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...INDUCING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH 02.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND FACILITATE FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING AND
FUTURE MODEL RUNS CAN PIN DOWN WHEN AND IF HIGHER POPS WOULD BE
JUSTIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERNIGHT SCENARIO OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. PRETTY GOOD CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH KRWF
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST PAST KAXN AND KSTC
DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BRUSH THE TWIN CITIES AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING JUST TO
THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO KRNH. THIS PUSHES
ESE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL BUT KRWF WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE
STRONG INFLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...CONCERN IS
INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS AT OR BEYOND THE END OF THE
TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMSP WHICH GOES THROUGH 12Z. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE TACKLED WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS. IN ADDITION...MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT 5 TO
10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE HIGH ON VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY THEN SCT TSRA IN THE
AFTN. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 4-8 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 030000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WITH ITS NRN
EXTENSION OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE
WFO MPX CWFA...THOUGH SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVER
NRN MN AND STAY AWAY FROM CENTRAL-SRN MN. WINDS WILL BACK FROM W
TO SW AND S...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THIS
REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF TASTE OF MID-SUMMER BACK TO THE REGION
FOR WED.

A POTENT TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW TNGT...SHIFTING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES SLOWLY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS UPR TROF WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH A LOW PRES CENTER EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS THRU
THE DAKOTAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ATTENDANT FROM THIS LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE A TRAILING CDFNT OFF TO THE SW. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER
WILL BE A NEWD MOVG WMFNT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.
STRONG WAA MAY AID SOME SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN MN IN THE
MRNG BUT THIS WMFNT WILL CREATE MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR TO THE S...
INCLUDING DEWPOINTS HITTING THE LWR 70S. STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE WMFNT SHOULD HELP BREAK
CAPPING AND PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT STARTING IN THE AFTN OVER
CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD THRU THE REST OF
THE AFTN INTO WED EVE. MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS HINTED
AT BY LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM THE GFS AND NAM. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...
THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE CENTRAL MN...EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ALL OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE DEEP LIFT OF ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL A PRIMARY
HAZARD...PARTICULARLY WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING ISOLD TORNADOES AS 0-3KM
HELICITIES ARE IN THE 350-500 M2/S2 RANGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL BE STARTED BY THE NWD-MOVING WMFNT MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION THAT CAN BE RECEIVED BETWEEN THE
ACTIVITY IN SWRN MN AND THE AFTN BREAKING OF THE CAP. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED EVE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT OFF TO THE E WED NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...THE SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW- MID 80S...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS ARND 70 WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH THE CDFNT STILL TO THE W OF THE MPX CWFA
THRU WED NIGHT...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WED NIGHT
PERIOD AS LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. FOR MUCH OF SE-E MN INTO WRN WI...THE
PAST 10 DAYS HAVE SEEN THOSE AREAS RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN...
MAKING FOR A VERY SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY MORE...CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY AS PWATS RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES BY WED AFTN AND EVE
OVER ERN MN AND WRN WI. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
BUT HAVING FLOODING RAINS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HOW
HEAVY RAIN MAY IMPACT MAIN STEM RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE CHIPPEWA
RIVER IN WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOOKENDING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 1000MB
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER A
TAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY UNTIL THE PASSING COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SPARKS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED MID LEVEL
CAP/...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS...QUITE FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGHS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE...WHILE LOWS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ON MONDAY...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...INDUCING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH 02.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND FACILITATE FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING AND
FUTURE MODEL RUNS CAN PIN DOWN WHEN AND IF HIGHER POPS WOULD BE
JUSTIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING POSSIBLE AT KRWF AFTER 08Z
AND AFTER 10Z AT KSTC AND KAXN. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH KMSP AND KRNH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS
WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG
A LINE FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO KRNH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE TWIN CITIES AND
KEAU DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE
FIRST THREAT FOR SHRA IS FROM 14Z-18Z WITH A THREAT FOR TSRA
INCREASING TOMORROW EVENING IN THE 02Z-06Z PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. MVFR/TSRA LKLY IN THE AFTN. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 4-8 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 030000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WITH ITS NRN
EXTENSION OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE
WFO MPX CWFA...THOUGH SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVER
NRN MN AND STAY AWAY FROM CENTRAL-SRN MN. WINDS WILL BACK FROM W
TO SW AND S...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THIS
REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF TASTE OF MID-SUMMER BACK TO THE REGION
FOR WED.

A POTENT TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW TNGT...SHIFTING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES SLOWLY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS UPR TROF WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH A LOW PRES CENTER EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS THRU
THE DAKOTAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ATTENDANT FROM THIS LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE A TRAILING CDFNT OFF TO THE SW. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER
WILL BE A NEWD MOVG WMFNT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.
STRONG WAA MAY AID SOME SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN MN IN THE
MRNG BUT THIS WMFNT WILL CREATE MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR TO THE S...
INCLUDING DEWPOINTS HITTING THE LWR 70S. STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE WMFNT SHOULD HELP BREAK
CAPPING AND PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT STARTING IN THE AFTN OVER
CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD THRU THE REST OF
THE AFTN INTO WED EVE. MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS HINTED
AT BY LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM THE GFS AND NAM. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...
THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE CENTRAL MN...EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ALL OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE DEEP LIFT OF ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL A PRIMARY
HAZARD...PARTICULARLY WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING ISOLD TORNADOES AS 0-3KM
HELICITIES ARE IN THE 350-500 M2/S2 RANGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL BE STARTED BY THE NWD-MOVING WMFNT MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION THAT CAN BE RECEIVED BETWEEN THE
ACTIVITY IN SWRN MN AND THE AFTN BREAKING OF THE CAP. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED EVE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT OFF TO THE E WED NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...THE SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW- MID 80S...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS ARND 70 WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH THE CDFNT STILL TO THE W OF THE MPX CWFA
THRU WED NIGHT...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WED NIGHT
PERIOD AS LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. FOR MUCH OF SE-E MN INTO WRN WI...THE
PAST 10 DAYS HAVE SEEN THOSE AREAS RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN...
MAKING FOR A VERY SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY MORE...CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY AS PWATS RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES BY WED AFTN AND EVE
OVER ERN MN AND WRN WI. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
BUT HAVING FLOODING RAINS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HOW
HEAVY RAIN MAY IMPACT MAIN STEM RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE CHIPPEWA
RIVER IN WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOOKENDING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 1000MB
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER A
TAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY UNTIL THE PASSING COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SPARKS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED MID LEVEL
CAP/...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS...QUITE FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGHS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE...WHILE LOWS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ON MONDAY...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...INDUCING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH 02.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND FACILITATE FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING AND
FUTURE MODEL RUNS CAN PIN DOWN WHEN AND IF HIGHER POPS WOULD BE
JUSTIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING POSSIBLE AT KRWF AFTER 08Z
AND AFTER 10Z AT KSTC AND KAXN. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH KMSP AND KRNH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS
WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG
A LINE FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO KRNH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE TWIN CITIES AND
KEAU DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE
FIRST THREAT FOR SHRA IS FROM 14Z-18Z WITH A THREAT FOR TSRA
INCREASING TOMORROW EVENING IN THE 02Z-06Z PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. MVFR/TSRA LKLY IN THE AFTN. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 4-8 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 022007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
307 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WITH ITS NRN
EXTENSION OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE
WFO MPX CWFA...THOUGH SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVER
NRN MN AND STAY AWAY FROM CENTRAL-SRN MN. WINDS WILL BACK FROM W
TO SW AND S...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THIS
REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF TASTE OF MID-SUMMER BACK TO THE REGION
FOR WED.

A POTENT TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW TNGT...SHIFTING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES SLOWLY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS UPR TROF WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH A LOW PRES CENTER EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS THRU
THE DAKOTAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ATTENDANT FROM THIS LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE A TRAILING CDFNT OFF TO THE SW. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER
WILL BE A NEWD MOVG WMFNT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.
STRONG WAA MAY AID SOME SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN MN IN THE
MRNG BUT THIS WMFNT WILL CREATE MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR TO THE S...
INCLUDING DEWPOINTS HITTING THE LWR 70S. STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE WMFNT SHOULD HELP BREAK
CAPPING AND PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT STARTING IN THE AFTN OVER
CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD THRU THE REST OF
THE AFTN INTO WED EVE. MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS HINTED
AT BY LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM THE GFS AND NAM. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...
THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE CENTRAL MN...EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ALL OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE DEEP LIFT OF ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL A PRIMARY
HAZARD...PARTICULARLY WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING ISOLD TORNADOES AS 0-3KM
HELICITIES ARE IN THE 350-500 M2/S2 RANGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL BE STARTED BY THE NWD-MOVING WMFNT MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION THAT CAN BE RECEIVED BETWEEN THE
ACTIVITY IN SWRN MN AND THE AFTN BREAKING OF THE CAP. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED EVE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT OFF TO THE E WED NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...THE SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW- MID 80S...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS ARND 70 WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH THE CDFNT STILL TO THE W OF THE MPX CWFA
THRU WED NIGHT...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WED NIGHT
PERIOD AS LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. FOR MUCH OF SE-E MN INTO WRN WI...THE
PAST 10 DAYS HAVE SEEN THOSE AREAS RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN...
MAKING FOR A VERY SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY MORE...CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY AS PWATS RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES BY WED AFTN AND EVE
OVER ERN MN AND WRN WI. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
BUT HAVING FLOODING RAINS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HOW
HEAVY RAIN MAY IMPACT MAIN STEM RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE CHIPPEWA
RIVER IN WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOOKENDING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 1000MB
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER A
TAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY UNTIL THE PASSING COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SPARKS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED MID LEVEL
CAP/...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS...QUITE FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGHS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE...WHILE LOWS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ON MONDAY...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...INDUCING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH 02.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND FACILITATE FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING AND
FUTURE MODEL RUNS CAN PIN DOWN WHEN AND IF HIGHER POPS WOULD BE
JUSTIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RATHER BENIGN START TO THE 02/18Z TAFS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
ONLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER RUNS OF
HRRR/HOPWRF LOCAL MODELS INDICATED SOME WEAK MIDLVL PERTURBATIONS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRES ALONG WITH SOME KINKS IN
THE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLD
SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...BUT
CHANCES AND COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION SO HAVE OMITTED IT
ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

GOING THROUGH TNGT AND INTO WED...A WMFNT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. SOME ISOLD
TO SCTRD -SHRA LOOK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SWRN MN...
BUT THEN THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL TRANSITION TO CENTRAL MN BY
LATE DAY WED...LIKELY PAST THE TIME PERIOD OF THIS 18Z TAF.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PRECIP MAY
OCCUR FASTER THAN WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED SO IF ANYTHING... THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. AS FOR TSTM
POTENTIAL...TSTM PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO HAVE OMITTED TSTM
MENTION ATTM.

KMSP...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. LOW CHCS OF ISOLD SHWR/TSTM THIS AFTN...BUT AM GROWING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD EVADE MSP. GOING THRU TMRW...CHCS DO
INCRS OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS IN AND AROUND MSP...ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. AM NOT THINKING TSTMS WOULD IMPACT MSP BY
00Z SO HAVE OMITTED IT ATTM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
THAT FLIGHT CONDITION REDUCING PRECIP COULD IMPACT MSP PRIOR TO
00Z TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 022007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
307 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WITH ITS NRN
EXTENSION OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE
WFO MPX CWFA...THOUGH SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVER
NRN MN AND STAY AWAY FROM CENTRAL-SRN MN. WINDS WILL BACK FROM W
TO SW AND S...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THIS
REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF TASTE OF MID-SUMMER BACK TO THE REGION
FOR WED.

A POTENT TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW TNGT...SHIFTING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES SLOWLY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS UPR TROF WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH A LOW PRES CENTER EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS THRU
THE DAKOTAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ATTENDANT FROM THIS LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE A TRAILING CDFNT OFF TO THE SW. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER
WILL BE A NEWD MOVG WMFNT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.
STRONG WAA MAY AID SOME SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN MN IN THE
MRNG BUT THIS WMFNT WILL CREATE MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR TO THE S...
INCLUDING DEWPOINTS HITTING THE LWR 70S. STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE WMFNT SHOULD HELP BREAK
CAPPING AND PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT STARTING IN THE AFTN OVER
CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD THRU THE REST OF
THE AFTN INTO WED EVE. MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTENED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS HINTED
AT BY LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM THE GFS AND NAM. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...
THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE CENTRAL MN...EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ALL OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE DEEP LIFT OF ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL A PRIMARY
HAZARD...PARTICULARLY WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING ISOLD TORNADOES AS 0-3KM
HELICITIES ARE IN THE 350-500 M2/S2 RANGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL BE STARTED BY THE NWD-MOVING WMFNT MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION THAT CAN BE RECEIVED BETWEEN THE
ACTIVITY IN SWRN MN AND THE AFTN BREAKING OF THE CAP. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED EVE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT OFF TO THE E WED NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...THE SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW- MID 80S...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS ARND 70 WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE MID-UPR 80S. WITH THE CDFNT STILL TO THE W OF THE MPX CWFA
THRU WED NIGHT...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WED NIGHT
PERIOD AS LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. FOR MUCH OF SE-E MN INTO WRN WI...THE
PAST 10 DAYS HAVE SEEN THOSE AREAS RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN...
MAKING FOR A VERY SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY MORE...CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY AS PWATS RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES BY WED AFTN AND EVE
OVER ERN MN AND WRN WI. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
BUT HAVING FLOODING RAINS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HOW
HEAVY RAIN MAY IMPACT MAIN STEM RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE CHIPPEWA
RIVER IN WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOOKENDING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 1000MB
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER A
TAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY UNTIL THE PASSING COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SPARKS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED MID LEVEL
CAP/...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS...QUITE FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGHS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE...WHILE LOWS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ON MONDAY...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...INDUCING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH 02.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND FACILITATE FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING AND
FUTURE MODEL RUNS CAN PIN DOWN WHEN AND IF HIGHER POPS WOULD BE
JUSTIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RATHER BENIGN START TO THE 02/18Z TAFS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
ONLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER RUNS OF
HRRR/HOPWRF LOCAL MODELS INDICATED SOME WEAK MIDLVL PERTURBATIONS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRES ALONG WITH SOME KINKS IN
THE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLD
SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...BUT
CHANCES AND COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION SO HAVE OMITTED IT
ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

GOING THROUGH TNGT AND INTO WED...A WMFNT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. SOME ISOLD
TO SCTRD -SHRA LOOK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SWRN MN...
BUT THEN THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL TRANSITION TO CENTRAL MN BY
LATE DAY WED...LIKELY PAST THE TIME PERIOD OF THIS 18Z TAF.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PRECIP MAY
OCCUR FASTER THAN WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED SO IF ANYTHING... THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. AS FOR TSTM
POTENTIAL...TSTM PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO HAVE OMITTED TSTM
MENTION ATTM.

KMSP...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. LOW CHCS OF ISOLD SHWR/TSTM THIS AFTN...BUT AM GROWING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD EVADE MSP. GOING THRU TMRW...CHCS DO
INCRS OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS IN AND AROUND MSP...ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. AM NOT THINKING TSTMS WOULD IMPACT MSP BY
00Z SO HAVE OMITTED IT ATTM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
THAT FLIGHT CONDITION REDUCING PRECIP COULD IMPACT MSP PRIOR TO
00Z TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 021815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MORNING UPDATE CONSISTS OF ADDING IN SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AFTN MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SHORT-TERM MODELS...
SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR/HOPWRF/RAP COMBINATIONS...INDICATE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WNW-ENE FLOW ALOFT. SOME SAGGINESS IN THE
NRN FRINGES OF EXITING HIGH PRES HINT AT WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
PERTURBATIONS...ALONG WITH SOME BUCKLING IN THE UPPER FLOW. THESE
INGREDIENTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHWRS...POSSIBLY EVEN A
TSTM...DURING THE MID-TO-LATE AFTN HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP. QPF
WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW...BUT THIS IS SIMPLY DECENT SHORT-TERM
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE DAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY AND SOLIDLY
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.

VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KABR...TO KMSP...TO ARX ARE ALL SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 2-10KFT THIS MORNING. THERE IS ONGOING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANTS OF A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN SD/NE LAST EVENING.
THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING WITH TIME WITH NO NEW UPDRAFTS AND ARE
ALSO MOVING EAST AT GOOD CLIP /35-40KTS/. SO...THE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE PICTURE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT COMBINATION TODAY IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 70S
OVER 50S. THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE IN LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN AND IN NORTH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING TIED TO PV
ADVECTION AND THE UPPER JET OVER IA. THE VORTICITY ADVECTON WILL
ALSO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE
LIGHTNING HAS REALLY DROPPED OFF...WITH JUST A COUPLE STRIKES IN
IA WHERE THERE ARE STILL MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
MN. THE WARM ADVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COOL CRISP FALL AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
FROM ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 02.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS IDENTIFIED A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF NEAR 70F WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT...BUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...SO HAVE BROKE POP GRIDS INTO 3HR BLOCKS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. THE 02.00
WRFARW AND WRFNMM HAVE PRECIP FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO
FEEL COMFORTABLE SHAVING OFF POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL DECOUPLE AND SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. VEERING WINDS IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO SUSPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN...SO COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS A MUCH COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RATHER BENIGN START TO THE 02/18Z TAFS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
ONLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER RUNS OF
HRRR/HOPWRF LOCAL MODELS INDICATED SOME WEAK MIDLVL PERTURBATIONS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRES ALONG WITH SOME KINKS IN
THE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLD
SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...BUT
CHANCES AND COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION SO HAVE OMITTED IT
ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

GOING THROUGH TNGT AND INTO WED...A WMFNT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. SOME ISOLD
TO SCTRD -SHRA LOOK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SWRN MN...
BUT THEN THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL TRANSITION TO CENTRAL MN BY
LATE DAY WED...LIKELY PAST THE TIME PERIOD OF THIS 18Z TAF.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PRECIP MAY
OCCUR FASTER THAN WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED SO IF ANYTHING... THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. AS FOR TSTM
POTENTIAL...TSTM PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO HAVE OMITTED TSTM
MENTION ATTM.

KMSP...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. LOW CHCS OF ISOLD SHWR/TSTM THIS AFTN...BUT AM GROWING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD EVADE MSP. GOING THRU TMRW...CHCS DO
INCRS OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS IN AND AROUND MSP...ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. AM NOT THINKING TSTMS WOULD IMPACT MSP BY
00Z SO HAVE OMITTED IT ATTM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
THAT FLIGHT CONDITION REDUCING PRECIP COULD IMPACT MSP PRIOR TO
00Z TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 021815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MORNING UPDATE CONSISTS OF ADDING IN SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AFTN MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SHORT-TERM MODELS...
SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR/HOPWRF/RAP COMBINATIONS...INDICATE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WNW-ENE FLOW ALOFT. SOME SAGGINESS IN THE
NRN FRINGES OF EXITING HIGH PRES HINT AT WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
PERTURBATIONS...ALONG WITH SOME BUCKLING IN THE UPPER FLOW. THESE
INGREDIENTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHWRS...POSSIBLY EVEN A
TSTM...DURING THE MID-TO-LATE AFTN HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP. QPF
WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW...BUT THIS IS SIMPLY DECENT SHORT-TERM
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE DAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY AND SOLIDLY
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.

VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KABR...TO KMSP...TO ARX ARE ALL SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 2-10KFT THIS MORNING. THERE IS ONGOING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANTS OF A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN SD/NE LAST EVENING.
THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING WITH TIME WITH NO NEW UPDRAFTS AND ARE
ALSO MOVING EAST AT GOOD CLIP /35-40KTS/. SO...THE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE PICTURE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT COMBINATION TODAY IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 70S
OVER 50S. THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE IN LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN AND IN NORTH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING TIED TO PV
ADVECTION AND THE UPPER JET OVER IA. THE VORTICITY ADVECTON WILL
ALSO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE
LIGHTNING HAS REALLY DROPPED OFF...WITH JUST A COUPLE STRIKES IN
IA WHERE THERE ARE STILL MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
MN. THE WARM ADVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COOL CRISP FALL AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
FROM ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 02.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS IDENTIFIED A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF NEAR 70F WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT...BUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...SO HAVE BROKE POP GRIDS INTO 3HR BLOCKS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. THE 02.00
WRFARW AND WRFNMM HAVE PRECIP FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO
FEEL COMFORTABLE SHAVING OFF POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL DECOUPLE AND SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. VEERING WINDS IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO SUSPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN...SO COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS A MUCH COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RATHER BENIGN START TO THE 02/18Z TAFS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
ONLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER RUNS OF
HRRR/HOPWRF LOCAL MODELS INDICATED SOME WEAK MIDLVL PERTURBATIONS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRES ALONG WITH SOME KINKS IN
THE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLD
SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...BUT
CHANCES AND COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION SO HAVE OMITTED IT
ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

GOING THROUGH TNGT AND INTO WED...A WMFNT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. SOME ISOLD
TO SCTRD -SHRA LOOK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SWRN MN...
BUT THEN THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL TRANSITION TO CENTRAL MN BY
LATE DAY WED...LIKELY PAST THE TIME PERIOD OF THIS 18Z TAF.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PRECIP MAY
OCCUR FASTER THAN WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED SO IF ANYTHING... THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. AS FOR TSTM
POTENTIAL...TSTM PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO HAVE OMITTED TSTM
MENTION ATTM.

KMSP...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. LOW CHCS OF ISOLD SHWR/TSTM THIS AFTN...BUT AM GROWING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD EVADE MSP. GOING THRU TMRW...CHCS DO
INCRS OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS IN AND AROUND MSP...ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. AM NOT THINKING TSTMS WOULD IMPACT MSP BY
00Z SO HAVE OMITTED IT ATTM...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
THAT FLIGHT CONDITION REDUCING PRECIP COULD IMPACT MSP PRIOR TO
00Z TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 021556
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MORNING UPDATE CONSISTS OF ADDING IN SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AFTN MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SHORT-TERM MODELS...
SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR/HOPWRF/RAP COMBINATIONS...INDICATE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WNW-ENE FLOW ALOFT. SOME SAGGINESS IN THE
NRN FRINGES OF EXITING HIGH PRES HINT AT WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
PERTURBATIONS...ALONG WITH SOME BUCKLING IN THE UPPER FLOW. THESE
INGREDIENTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHWRS...POSSIBLY EVEN A
TSTM...DURING THE MID-TO-LATE AFTN HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP. QPF
WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW...BUT THIS IS SIMPLY DECENT SHORT-TERM
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE DAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY AND SOLIDLY
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME.

VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KABR...TO KMSP...TO ARX ARE ALL SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 2-10KFT THIS MORNING. THERE IS ONGOING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN SD/NE LAST EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE THINNING WITH TIME WITH NO NEW UPDRAFTS AND ARE ALSO MOVING
EAST AT GOOD CLIP /35-40KTS/. SO...THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
PICTURE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
COMBINATION TODAY IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 70S OVER 50S.
THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE IN LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND
IN NORTH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING TIED TO PV ADVECTION AND THE
UPPER JET OVER IA. THE VORTICITY ADVECTON WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE LIGHTNING HAS REALLY
DROPPED OFF...WITH JUST A COUPLE STRIKES IN IA WHERE THERE ARE STILL
MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE WARM ADVECTION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COOL CRISP FALL AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 02.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS IDENTIFIED A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF NEAR 70F WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT...BUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...SO HAVE BROKE POP GRIDS INTO 3HR BLOCKS TO BETTER DEPICT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. THE 02.00 WRFARW AND
WRFNMM HAVE PRECIP FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE SHAVING OFF POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DECOUPLE AND SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
VEERING WINDS IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SO SUSPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN...SO COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS A MUCH COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD BEGIN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
APPROACH KRWF BY LATE TONIGHT.

KMSP...
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 021126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME.

VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KABR...TO KMSP...TO ARX ARE ALL SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 2-10KFT THIS MORNING. THERE IS ONGOING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN SD/NE LAST EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE THINNING WITH TIME WITH NO NEW UPDRAFTS AND ARE ALSO MOVING
EAST AT GOOD CLIP /35-40KTS/. SO...THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
PICTURE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
COMBINATION TODAY IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 70S OVER 50S.
THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE IN LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND
IN NORTH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING TIED TO PV ADVECTION AND THE
UPPER JET OVER IA. THE VORTICITY ADVECTON WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE LIGHTNING HAS REALLY
DROPPED OFF...WITH JUST A COUPLE STRIKES IN IA WHERE THERE ARE STILL
MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE WARM ADVECTION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COOL CRISP FALL AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 02.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS IDENTIFIED A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF NEAR 70F WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT...BUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...SO HAVE BROKE POP GRIDS INTO 3HR BLOCKS TO BETTER DEPICT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. THE 02.00 WRFARW AND
WRFNMM HAVE PRECIP FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE SHAVING OFF POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DECOUPLE AND SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
VEERING WINDS IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SO SUSPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN...SO COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS A MUCH COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD BEGIN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
APPROACH KRWF BY LATE TONIGHT.

KMSP...
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 021126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME.

VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KABR...TO KMSP...TO ARX ARE ALL SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 2-10KFT THIS MORNING. THERE IS ONGOING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN SD/NE LAST EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE THINNING WITH TIME WITH NO NEW UPDRAFTS AND ARE ALSO MOVING
EAST AT GOOD CLIP /35-40KTS/. SO...THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
PICTURE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
COMBINATION TODAY IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 70S OVER 50S.
THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE IN LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND
IN NORTH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING TIED TO PV ADVECTION AND THE
UPPER JET OVER IA. THE VORTICITY ADVECTON WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE LIGHTNING HAS REALLY
DROPPED OFF...WITH JUST A COUPLE STRIKES IN IA WHERE THERE ARE STILL
MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE WARM ADVECTION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COOL CRISP FALL AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 02.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS IDENTIFIED A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF NEAR 70F WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT...BUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...SO HAVE BROKE POP GRIDS INTO 3HR BLOCKS TO BETTER DEPICT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. THE 02.00 WRFARW AND
WRFNMM HAVE PRECIP FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE SHAVING OFF POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DECOUPLE AND SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
VEERING WINDS IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SO SUSPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN...SO COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS A MUCH COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD BEGIN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
APPROACH KRWF BY LATE TONIGHT.

KMSP...
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 020914
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME.

VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KABR...TO KMSP...TO ARX ARE ALL SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 2-10KFT THIS MORNING. THERE IS ONGOING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN SD/NE LAST EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE THINNING WITH TIME WITH NO NEW UPDRAFTS AND ARE ALSO MOVING
EAST AT GOOD CLIP /35-40KTS/. SO...THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
PICTURE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
COMBINATION TODAY IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 70S OVER 50S.
THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE IN LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND
IN NORTH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING TIED TO PV ADVECTION AND THE
UPPER JET OVER IA. THE VORTICITY ADVECTON WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE LIGHTNING HAS REALLY
DROPPED OFF...WITH JUST A COUPLE STRIKES IN IA WHERE THERE ARE STILL
MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE WARM ADVECTION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COOL CRISP FALL AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 02.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS IDENTIFIED A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF NEAR 70F WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT...BUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...SO HAVE BROKE POP GRIDS INTO 3HR BLOCKS TO BETTER DEPICT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. THE 02.00 WRFARW AND
WRFNMM HAVE PRECIP FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE SHAVING OFF POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DECOUPLE AND SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
VEERING WINDS IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SO SUSPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN...SO COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS A MUCH COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION ONLY VCSH
WAS USED. A CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI INCLUDING KRNH AND
KEAU. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS HOW FAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE WSW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(08Z-12Z) WITH A MORE SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS
IA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 020350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION ONLY VCSH
WAS USED. A CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI INCLUDING KRNH AND
KEAU. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS HOW FAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE WSW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(08Z-12Z) WITH A MORE SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS
IA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 020350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION ONLY VCSH
WAS USED. A CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI INCLUDING KRNH AND
KEAU. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS HOW FAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE WSW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(08Z-12Z) WITH A MORE SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS
IA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 020350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION ONLY VCSH
WAS USED. A CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI INCLUDING KRNH AND
KEAU. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS HOW FAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE WSW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(08Z-12Z) WITH A MORE SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS
IA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 020350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION ONLY VCSH
WAS USED. A CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI INCLUDING KRNH AND
KEAU. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS HOW FAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE WSW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(08Z-12Z) WITH A MORE SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS
IA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BCMG W LATE.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 020000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT WILL AID IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IN
PROGRESS BETWEEN KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KMSP. HOWEVER...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO KRWF AFTER 08Z AND PASS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL EXPECTED. LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

KMSP... SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING (08Z-14Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVE...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S TO SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH










000
FXUS63 KMPX 020000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT WILL AID IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IN
PROGRESS BETWEEN KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KMSP. HOWEVER...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO KRWF AFTER 08Z AND PASS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL EXPECTED. LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

KMSP... SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING (08Z-14Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVE...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S TO SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 012005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 012005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 011657
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 011657
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 011044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS MN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT WORKS ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CLEAR EAU BY 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING
THEREAFTER. WAVE CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS MONTANA WILL WORK ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND MN TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ISO
ACTIVITY OUT IN WRN MN AROUND 0Z...BUT NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO
BE ENOUGH TO PUT A MENTION IN TAFS. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS THE
REASON FOR THE RETURN OF 070-100 CIGS IN TAFS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS TODAY BEFORE THEY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...WE HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AN MVFR CIG THIS MORNING...BUT WE
HAVE DONE SO A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
FIELD...TAKING THOSE CIG RESTRICTIONS WITH. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF
THE TAF DRY...THOUGH WAVE OVER MT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z. HOWEVER...BY THEN WE WILL HAVE LOST
OUR DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THAT ENERGY
THAT COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AFTER DARK LOOKS TO BE HEADING FOR IA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KMPX 010947
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
447 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THUNDER THREAT LARGELY DONE ACROSS THE MPX AIRSPACE...BUT STRONG
UPPER WAVE BACK BY SIOUX FALLS STILL HAS TO WORK ACROSS SRN MN/WRN
WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WE ARE SEEING WITH THE HRRR. BIGGER QUESTION MARK
REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEE OUT THERE NOW WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
ATMO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRATUS...BUT CIGS AT THE START
ARE LARGELY UP AROUND 10K FT...SO WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO. FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF THE RAP THOUGH WITH STATUS EVENTUALLY FILLING IN
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING SFC TROUGH...WHICH AT 6Z
STRETCHED FROM ABOUT NEW ULM TO MILLE LACS LAKE. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY QUICK BY WNW WINDS IN THE
MORNING...WITH MOST OF LABOR DAY GOING BY WITH VFR CONDS. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN PROVIDE US WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEEING NOW FAVORED ME TOWARD KEEPING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUB 018 CIGS WE HAD IN THE TAF...BUT WITH CIGS
STILL ABOVE 5K FT...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THOSE RESTRICTIONS
HAPPENING. OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG









000
FXUS63 KMPX 010533
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THUNDER THREAT LARGELY DONE ACROSS THE MPX AIRSPACE...BUT STRONG
UPPER WAVE BACK BY SIOUX FALLS STILL HAS TO WORK ACROSS SRN MN/WRN
WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WE ARE SEEING WITH THE HRRR. BIGGER QUESTION MARK
REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEE OUT THERE NOW WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
ATMO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRATUS...BUT CIGS AT THE START
ARE LARGELY UP AROUND 10K FT...SO WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO. FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF THE RAP THOUGH WITH STATUS EVENTUALLY FILLING IN
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING SFC TROUGH...WHICH AT 6Z
STRETCHED FROM ABOUT NEW ULM TO MILLE LACS LAKE. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY QUICK BY WNW WINDS IN THE
MORNING...WITH MOST OF LABOR DAY GOING BY WITH VFR CONDS. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN PROVIDE US WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEEING NOW FAVORED ME TOWARD KEEPING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUB 018 CIGS WE HAD IN THE TAF...BUT WITH CIGS
STILL ABOVE 5K FT...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THOSE RESTRICTIONS
HAPPENING. OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KMPX 010533
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THUNDER THREAT LARGELY DONE ACROSS THE MPX AIRSPACE...BUT STRONG
UPPER WAVE BACK BY SIOUX FALLS STILL HAS TO WORK ACROSS SRN MN/WRN
WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WE ARE SEEING WITH THE HRRR. BIGGER QUESTION MARK
REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEE OUT THERE NOW WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
ATMO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRATUS...BUT CIGS AT THE START
ARE LARGELY UP AROUND 10K FT...SO WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO. FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF THE RAP THOUGH WITH STATUS EVENTUALLY FILLING IN
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING SFC TROUGH...WHICH AT 6Z
STRETCHED FROM ABOUT NEW ULM TO MILLE LACS LAKE. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY QUICK BY WNW WINDS IN THE
MORNING...WITH MOST OF LABOR DAY GOING BY WITH VFR CONDS. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN PROVIDE US WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEEING NOW FAVORED ME TOWARD KEEPING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUB 018 CIGS WE HAD IN THE TAF...BUT WITH CIGS
STILL ABOVE 5K FT...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THOSE RESTRICTIONS
HAPPENING. OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 312353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO SW MN ALONG FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
EASTWARD. MORE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND EVEN A FEW IN WESTERN WISC. WILL HAVE STORMS IN
TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KEAU BEING THE LAST SITE FOR THE
STORMS TO END. ONLY KAXN AND WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD ESCAPE STORMS.
AFTER STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
DAYBREAK. QUIET ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
STORMS THE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN WISC SUGGEST AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUBSIDENCE BEFORE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS ARRIVES. HAVE STORM THREAT
BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF PRECIP AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KMPX 312353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO SW MN ALONG FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
EASTWARD. MORE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND EVEN A FEW IN WESTERN WISC. WILL HAVE STORMS IN
TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KEAU BEING THE LAST SITE FOR THE
STORMS TO END. ONLY KAXN AND WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD ESCAPE STORMS.
AFTER STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
DAYBREAK. QUIET ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
STORMS THE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN WISC SUGGEST AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUBSIDENCE BEFORE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS ARRIVES. HAVE STORM THREAT
BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF PRECIP AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 311954
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL
ADJUST AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 311954
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL
ADJUST AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 311707
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST
AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311707
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST
AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER WI BENEATH THE SFC
HIGH HAS MANAGED TO WORK INTO ERN MN/WRN WI ON SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SRLY AND PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS MIX OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS THAT SNUCK INTO WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APPART AS THEY WORK ACROSS MN AND FEEL
VCSH MENTIONS AT MN TERMINALS IS ENOUGH FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE HRRR/ARW TREND FOR STORMS
TODAY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 20Z ON
A LEAD TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL ACTIVITY NOT LOOKING TO
REALLY GET GOING IN MN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...GFSLAMP IS WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS...BUT 925-850
RH FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE THE STRATUS BEING FAVORED
FOR NRN MN...SO KEPT CIGS VFR TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT THE CERTAIN LEVEL FOR MSP GETTING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY IMPACTING WI...WHILE STRONGER STORMS
TONIGHT STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH. IT IS THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTING THE
FIELD...WHICH IS WHY THE TEMPO GROUP IS STILL THERE FROM 1-4Z.
MOVED THE VCTS MENTION UP TO 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS...SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG TO
MIX OUT LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WITH THAT LOOKING TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 311109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER WI BENEATH THE SFC
HIGH HAS MANAGED TO WORK INTO ERN MN/WRN WI ON SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SRLY AND PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS MIX OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS THAT SNUCK INTO WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APPART AS THEY WORK ACROSS MN AND FEEL
VCSH MENTIONS AT MN TERMINALS IS ENOUGH FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE HRRR/ARW TREND FOR STORMS
TODAY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 20Z ON
A LEAD TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL ACTIVITY NOT LOOKING TO
REALLY GET GOING IN MN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...GFSLAMP IS WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS...BUT 925-850
RH FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE THE STRATUS BEING FAVORED
FOR NRN MN...SO KEPT CIGS VFR TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT THE CERTAIN LEVEL FOR MSP GETTING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY IMPACTING WI...WHILE STRONGER STORMS
TONIGHT STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH. IT IS THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTING THE
FIELD...WHICH IS WHY THE TEMPO GROUP IS STILL THERE FROM 1-4Z.
MOVED THE VCTS MENTION UP TO 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS...SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG TO
MIX OUT LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WITH THAT LOOKING TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KMPX 310838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 310838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities