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000
FXUS63 KMPX 171101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING EAST NEAR LA
CROSSE, WI. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN TODAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN BLUSTERY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALLOWS THEM TO SUBSIDE SOME. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TOUGH PART OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD INCLUDES PREDICTING THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK
TODAY...AND THE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY CONSIDERING ALL THE FRESH
SNOW COVER AND THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...WHILE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM MOST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SNOW PACK...BUT
DIDN`T GO TOO CRAZY WITH THAT BECAUSE IT IS MID APRIL AND DEEP
MIXING CAN STILL OCCUR IN THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS BECOME CALM THIS
EVENING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MN MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MN. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THE MOST
RECENT NAM NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...BUT THEY COULD BE REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE EXTENSIVE IN STRONG WAA ENVIRONMENT...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...WILL
BRING A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT SOME 50S NEAR
THE IOWA BORDER DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT CAN LIFT DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN PLAINS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCH OF
THE ENERGY BEING DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH. NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED
ABOUT SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE BEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. IF SOME SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH...HIGHS WILL REACH THE
60S WHICH COULD TAP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL LINGER NEAR THIS FRONT ACROSS SERN MN AND WRN WI. THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IN MUCH
OF MN WILL BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S OR LOW 70S.

THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES MONDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE +14
TO +16C RANGE. MIXING TO 850 MB WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS
THERMAL RIDGING AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK...THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT AND WINDS WILL BACK
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL MARK A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPS
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY MIDWEEK...PARTICULARLY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TRY TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY
THURSDAY PENDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...WHICH BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WE`LL STILL SEE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG
WILL THE LOW STRATUS LINGER...WHICH IS A TOUGH FORECAST AS I
BELIEVE THE HI-RES MODELS ARE BEING TOO PESSIMISTIC IN THIS CASE.
SO...EXPECTING CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RAISE THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE WARMS...AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING UNDER THE
RIDGE.

KMSP...GOING AGAINST THE RAP WHICH IS PESSIMISTIC IN SCATTERING
CLOUDS OUT AS IT WANTS TO HOLD ON TO THE STRATUS UNTIL THIS
EVENING. THINKING DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS FASTER (BY THE AFTERNOON).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH -RA. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ025-
     027.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 170914
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING EAST NEAR LA
CROSSE, WI. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN TODAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN BLUSTERY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALLOWS THEM TO SUBSIDE SOME. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TOUGH PART OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD INCLUDES PREDICTING THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK
TODAY...AND THE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY CONSIDERING ALL THE FRESH
SNOW COVER AND THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...WHILE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM MOST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SNOW PACK...BUT
DIDN`T GO TOO CRAZY WITH THAT BECAUSE IT IS MID APRIL AND DEEP
MIXING CAN STILL OCCUR IN THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS BECOME CALM THIS
EVENING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MN MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MN. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THE MOST
RECENT NAM NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...BUT THEY COULD BE REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE EXTENSIVE IN STRONG WAA ENVIRONMENT...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...WILL
BRING A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT SOME 50S NEAR
THE IOWA BORDER DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT CAN LIFT DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN PLAINS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCH OF
THE ENERGY BEING DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH. NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED
ABOUT SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE BEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. IF SOME SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH...HIGHS WILL REACH THE
60S WHICH COULD TAP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL LINGER NEAR THIS FRONT ACROSS SERN MN AND WRN WI. THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IN MUCH
OF MN WILL BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S OR LOW 70S.

THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES MONDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE +14
TO +16C RANGE. MIXING TO 850 MB WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS
THERMAL RIDGING AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK...THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT AND WINDS WILL BACK
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL MARK A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPS
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY MIDWEEK...PARTICULARLY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TRY TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY
THURSDAY PENDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...WHICH BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA
(EXCEPT THE FAR EAST, INCLUDING MSP) AND THE STRATUS DECK IS ON
THE MOVE. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALREADY REACHED AXN HAD SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THAT AREA. THE SNOW/RAIN INTENSITY
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND COME TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
MN...THEN WESTERN WI. THE TRICKY ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...IS HOW QUICKLY WE SHED THE STRATUS DECK. HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION THOUGH...AS THIS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER. THE CLEARING LINE TO THE NORTHWEST HAS SLOWED...BUT IS
STILL PUSHING SOUTHEAST...AND MAY REACH THE WEST METRO BEFORE
HALTING AND EVEN BACK-FILLING. CURRENTLY EXCEPTING MVFR TO LINGER
AT MOST SITES (EXCEPT AXN AND RWF) WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW
DURING THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF ACROSS WISCONSIN.

KMSP...SNOW WILL END PRIOR TO 08Z AT MSP. HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS LACKS. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS
DECK...AS THIS ACTUALLY COULD GO VFR MUCH QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH -RA. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ025-
     027.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 170641
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
141 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SFC ANALYSIS PUTS THE SFC LOW OVER BLUE
EARTH/LE SUEUR/WASECA COUNTIES IN MN WITH A WMFNT SNAKING NEWD
BETWEEN KLVN/KSYN ON TO EAU CLAIRE/CLARK COUNTIES IN WI. THE CDFNT
THEN SNAKES WSWWD THRU KJYG AND BETWEEN KOTG/KMJQ IN SWRN MN. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CNTR...WITH LGT
RAIN S OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO WHILE MOD-HVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
OVER MUCH OF NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED IN N-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE LOW PRES CENTER ROTATES TO THE
ENE. NOT LOOKING FOR THAT MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE S TO MAKE MUCH MORE
OF A NWD PUNCH THAN IT HAS ALREADY MADE. THEREFORE...ANY AREAS
CURRENTLY HAVING SNOW WILL STAY AS SNOW THRU THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT. AN AREAS EXPERIENCING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER KEY
FEATURES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN RAP/NAM MODELS THAT
WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES IN THE PRECIP DEPICTION THRU THE EARLY
EVENING. A DRY SLOT THAT SHOWED UP NICELY IN ERN SD EARLY TDA HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF CLOSING...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IT SHOWS UP IN SWRN MN
ON KMPX RADAR. IT STILL IS THERE...BUT NOT AS LARGE AS
EARLIER...INDICATING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE. THIS MEANS CONTINUED PRECIP DURATION WITH LITTLE BREAKS
THRU LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION...RAP/NAM SHOW THE UPPER LVL TROF
NUDGING THE SFC LOW ACRS SRN MN HAS TRYING TO PIVOT AS IT SWINGS
THRU TO A MORE NEGATIVE POSITION. THIS WOULD ENHANCE LIFT WITH
COLDER AIR SURGING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHILE MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP. THIS COMBINATION WOULD THEN POTENTIALLY
CREATE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE W TO
E ACRS MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA DURG THE EVE HRS...AGAIN POTENTIALLY
CREATING 1-2 IN/HR BANDS THAT MUCH OF THE CWFA WOULD EXPERIENCE.
DIFFICULT TO TIME IT BUT HAVE MAINTAIN HIGH-END POPS FOR CENTRAL-ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SINCE THE OVERALL PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. ONCE THE TROF MOVES THRU LATE THIS EVE...THEN THE
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END FROM W TO E ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY SEEING SNOW IN VARYING INTENSITIES BY THAT POINT. IN
FACT...DUE TO THE ACCENTUATED INTENSITY SEEN EARLIER...HAVE ADDED A
FEW COUNTIES INTO THE WARNING AND SLIGHTLY NUDGED UP SNOWFALL TOTALS
IN THE WSW SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGH-INTENSITY SNOW BANDS.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE END TIMES OF THE ADVY/WRNG TO COINCIDE WITH
THE LOWERING OF POPS ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS OVERALL WILL SETTLE INTO
THE LWR 20S INTO THE LWR 30S LATE TNGT WHILE WET SNOW ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA...LOCALLY UPWARDS OF A FOOT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WHILE MOST OF THE FORECASTER ENERGY WAS SPENT ON THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE SNOW STORM...THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT IN THE EXTENDED IS A RAIN
EVENT THAT LOOKS TO LARGELY OCCUR SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT -
PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THAT BEING SAID NO REALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE CURRENT
SYSTEM...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND TEMPS BUT TEMPS ALOFT
EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY MODERATE. WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL TOMORROW CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. MN/WI WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH...SO...AND IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED THE QPF SINCE YESTERDAY`S RUNS - AT LEAST IN
SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE FORCING ISN`T AS STRONG. THE MORE ROBUST
TROUGH REMAINS NORTH AND THE RESULTING FORCING IS BETTER ACROSS
NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN. NONETHELESS...A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WITH THE HELP OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY OR
WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY...WE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING
WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION RETURNING POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND AND EVEN IN INTO THE LOWER 70S BY
TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING VERY WARM
LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA
(EXCEPT THE FAR EAST, INCLUDING MSP) AND THE STRATUS DECK IS ON
THE MOVE. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALREADY REACHED AXN HAD SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THAT AREA. THE SNOW/RAIN INTENSITY
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND COME TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
MN...THEN WESTERN WI. THE TRICKY ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...IS HOW QUICKLY WE SHED THE STRATUS DECK. HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION THOUGH...AS THIS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER. THE CLEARING LINE TO THE NORTHWEST HAS SLOWED...BUT IS
STILL PUSHING SOUTHEAST...AND MAY REACH THE WEST METRO BEFORE
HALTING AND EVEN BACK-FILLING. CURRENTLY EXCEPTING MVFR TO LINGER
AT MOST SITES (EXCEPT AXN AND RWF) WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW
DURING THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF ACROSS WISCONSIN.

KMSP...SNOW WILL END PRIOR TO 08Z AT MSP. HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS LACKS. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS
DECK...AS THIS ACTUALLY COULD GO VFR MUCH QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH -RA. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ062-063.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ044-045-052-053-060-061.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ025-
     027.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 162348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SFC ANALYSIS PUTS THE SFC LOW OVER BLUE
EARTH/LE SUEUR/WASECA COUNTIES IN MN WITH A WMFNT SNAKING NEWD
BETWEEN KLVN/KSYN ON TO EAU CLAIRE/CLARK COUNTIES IN WI. THE CDFNT
THEN SNAKES WSWWD THRU KJYG AND BETWEEN KOTG/KMJQ IN SWRN MN. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CNTR...WITH LGT
RAIN S OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO WHILE MOD-HVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
OVER MUCH OF NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED IN N-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE LOW PRES CENTER ROTATES TO THE
ENE. NOT LOOKING FOR THAT MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE S TO MAKE MUCH MORE
OF A NWD PUNCH THAN IT HAS ALREADY MADE. THEREFORE...ANY AREAS
CURRENTLY HAVING SNOW WILL STAY AS SNOW THRU THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT. AN AREAS EXPERIENCING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER KEY
FEATURES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN RAP/NAM MODELS THAT
WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES IN THE PRECIP DEPICTION THRU THE EARLY
EVENING. A DRY SLOT THAT SHOWED UP NICELY IN ERN SD EARLY TDA HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF CLOSING...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IT SHOWS UP IN SWRN MN
ON KMPX RADAR. IT STILL IS THERE...BUT NOT AS LARGE AS
EARLIER...INDICATING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE. THIS MEANS CONTINUED PRECIP DURATION WITH LITTLE BREAKS
THRU LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION...RAP/NAM SHOW THE UPPER LVL TROF
NUDGING THE SFC LOW ACRS SRN MN HAS TRYING TO PIVOT AS IT SWINGS
THRU TO A MORE NEGATIVE POSITION. THIS WOULD ENHANCE LIFT WITH
COLDER AIR SURGING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHILE MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP. THIS COMBINATION WOULD THEN POTENTIALLY
CREATE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE W TO
E ACRS MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA DURG THE EVE HRS...AGAIN POTENTIALLY
CREATING 1-2 IN/HR BANDS THAT MUCH OF THE CWFA WOULD EXPERIENCE.
DIFFICULT TO TIME IT BUT HAVE MAINTAIN HIGH-END POPS FOR CENTRAL-ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SINCE THE OVERALL PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. ONCE THE TROF MOVES THRU LATE THIS EVE...THEN THE
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END FROM W TO E ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY SEEING SNOW IN VARYING INTENSITIES BY THAT POINT. IN
FACT...DUE TO THE ACCENTUATED INTENSITY SEEN EARLIER...HAVE ADDED A
FEW COUNTIES INTO THE WARNING AND SLIGHTLY NUDGED UP SNOWFALL TOTALS
IN THE WSW SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGH-INTENSITY SNOW BANDS.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE END TIMES OF THE ADVY/WRNG TO COINCIDE WITH
THE LOWERING OF POPS ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS OVERALL WILL SETTLE INTO
THE LWR 20S INTO THE LWR 30S LATE TNGT WHILE WET SNOW ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA...LOCALLY UPWARDS OF A FOOT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WHILE MOST OF THE FORECASTER ENERGY WAS SPENT ON THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE SNOW STORM...THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT IN THE EXTENDED IS A RAIN
EVENT THAT LOOKS TO LARGELY OCCUR SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT -
PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THAT BEING SAID NO REALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE CURRENT
SYSTEM...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND TEMPS BUT TEMPS ALOFT
EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY MODERATE. WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL TOMORROW CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. MN/WI WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH...SO...AND IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED THE QPF SINCE YESTERDAY`S RUNS - AT LEAST IN
SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE FORCING ISN`T AS STRONG. THE MORE ROBUST
TROUGH REMAINS NORTH AND THE RESULTING FORCING IS BETTER ACROSS
NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN. NONETHELESS...A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WITH THE HELP OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY OR
WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY...WE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING
WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION RETURNING POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND AND EVEN IN INTO THE LOWER 70S BY
TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING VERY WARM
LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN...EXPANDING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH PREVALENT LIFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF RASN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KMSP/KRNH/KEAU THIS EVE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STEADIER SNOW.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN MN BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z...AND IN WEST
CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS WILL BE MOST NOTABLE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BACK TO GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVE...THEN DECREASE BELOW 10KTS OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
A BIT OF RASN TO START THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER
TO SN BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z WITH INCREASING RATES. 1/2SM VSBYS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z...WITH -SN LINGERING UNTIL 06Z. BKN IFR
LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS EVE...WITH OVC MVFR DECK
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERING TO VFR EXPECTED AROUND 18Z
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND
REMAIN GUSTY...THEN DECREASE TO AOB 10KTS BY 12Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS NE 5-10
KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048-054>057-064-065-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ042-043-
     049>051-058-059.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ044-045-052-
     053-060-061.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ062-063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ066-068.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ025-027.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 162129
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SFC ANALYSIS PUTS THE SFC LOW OVER BLUE
EARTH/LE SUEUR/WASECA COUNTIES IN MN WITH A WMFNT SNAKING NEWD
BETWEEN KLVN/KSYN ON TO EAU CLAIRE/CLARK COUNTIES IN WI. THE CDFNT
THEN SNAKES WSWWD THRU KJYG AND BETWEEN KOTG/KMJQ IN SWRN MN. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CNTR...WITH LGT
RAIN S OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO WHILE MOD-HVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
OVER MUCH OF NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED IN N-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE LOW PRES CENTER ROTATES TO THE
ENE. NOT LOOKING FOR THAT MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE S TO MAKE MUCH MORE
OF A NWD PUNCH THAN IT HAS ALREADY MADE. THEREFORE...ANY AREAS
CURRENTLY HAVING SNOW WILL STAY AS SNOW THRU THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT. AN AREAS EXPERIENCING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER KEY
FEATURES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN RAP/NAM MODELS THAT
WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES IN THE PRECIP DEPICTION THRU THE EARLY
EVENING. A DRY SLOT THAT SHOWED UP NICELY IN ERN SD EARLY TDA HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF CLOSING...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IT SHOWS UP IN SWRN MN
ON KMPX RADAR. IT STILL IS THERE...BUT NOT AS LARGE AS
EARLIER...INDICATING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE. THIS MEANS CONTINUED PRECIP DURATION WITH LITTLE BREAKS
THRU LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION...RAP/NAM SHOW THE UPPER LVL TROF
NUDGING THE SFC LOW ACRS SRN MN HAS TRYING TO PIVOT AS IT SWINGS
THRU TO A MORE NEGATIVE POSITION. THIS WOULD ENHANCE LIFT WITH
COLDER AIR SURGING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHILE MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP. THIS COMBINATION WOULD THEN POTENTIALLY
CREATE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE W TO
E ACRS MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA DURG THE EVE HRS...AGAIN POTENTIALLY
CREATING 1-2 IN/HR BANDS THAT MUCH OF THE CWFA WOULD EXPERIENCE.
DIFFICULT TO TIME IT BUT HAVE MAINTAIN HIGH-END POPS FOR CENTRAL-ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SINCE THE OVERALL PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. ONCE THE TROF MOVES THRU LATE THIS EVE...THEN THE
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END FROM W TO E ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY SEEING SNOW IN VARYING INTENSITIES BY THAT POINT. IN
FACT...DUE TO THE ACCENTUATED INTENSITY SEEN EARLIER...HAVE ADDED A
FEW COUNTIES INTO THE WARNING AND SLIGHTLY NUDGED UP SNOWFALL TOTALS
IN THE WSW SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGH-INTENSITY SNOW BANDS.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE END TIMES OF THE ADVY/WRNG TO COINCIDE WITH
THE LOWERING OF POPS ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS OVERALL WILL SETTLE INTO
THE LWR 20S INTO THE LWR 30S LATE TNGT WHILE WET SNOW ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA...LOCALLY UPWARDS OF A FOOT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WHILE MOST OF THE FORECASTER ENERGY WAS SPENT ON THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE SNOW STORM...THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT IN THE EXTENDED IS A RAIN
EVENT THAT LOOKS TO LARGELY OCCUR SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT -
PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THAT BEING SAID NO REALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE CURRENT
SYSTEM...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND TEMPS BUT TEMPS ALOFT
EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY MODERATE. WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL TOMORROW CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. MN/WI WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH...SO...AND IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED THE QPF SINCE YESTERDAY`S RUNS - AT LEAST IN
SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE FORCING ISN`T AS STRONG. THE MORE ROBUST
TROUGH REMAINS NORTH AND THE RESULTING FORCING IS BETTER ACROSS
NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN. NONETHELESS...A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WITH THE HELP OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY OR
WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY...WE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING
WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION RETURNING POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND AND EVEN IN INTO THE LOWER 70S BY
TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING VERY WARM
LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AXN/STC/RWF CONTINUE TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY MOD/HVY SNOW THIS AFTN
AS THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN AIR COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN LINGERS FROM SWRN MN INTO N-CENTRAL MN.
MSP/RNH/EAU HAVE EMERGED TO HAVE LITTLE-TO-NO PRECIP AT 16/18Z
INITIALIZATION...BUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS TIME THE PRECIPITATION
AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD...BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE ERN
TAFS. PRECIP LOOKS TO RETURN AS -RA FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO -RASN BEFORE ALL -SN. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES
MESOSCALE BANDING OF PRECIP FOR THESE ERN SITES AS THE UPR LEVEL
TROF PIVOTS ALOFT OVER SRN MN THIS EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ENHANCED LOCALIZED LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR-WORTHY
HVY SNOW THIS EVENING. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ADVERTISED THIS
ATTM. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LARGELY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS BY
06Z THIS EVE...A LITTLE LATER FOR THE WI SITES. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
WITHIN THE BLYR...BUT AM NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON THIS IDEA DUE TO THE
STRONG LLVL NW WINDS XPCTD SO ASIDE FROM MVFR CIGS...HAVE LEFT
VSBY AS IMPROVING TO VFR.

KMSP...DEFINITIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP HAS DEVELOP OVER MSP...
GOING MAINLY S AND E FROM THERE...WHILE PRECIP IS NOT FAR OFF AT
ALL GOING N AND W. AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...THIS DRY PERIOD WILL
COME TO AN END WITH -RA RETURNING FROM THE W BY MID-AFTN. TEMPS IN
THE MID-30S WILL ALLOW FOR A P-TYPE OF SHOWERY -RA WHEN IT
RESUMES. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRES
CENTER SHIFTING EWD OVER SRN MN LATE THIS AFTN...PRECIP WILL MIX
WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO -SN. SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL BANDS OF MOD-HVY
SNOW...DUE TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS BUT ITS POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH TO
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THIS EVENING. CONDS IMPROVE LATE OVERNIGHT
THRU THE DAY TMRW TO VFR WHILE WINDS TAKE ON A DRIER NW FLOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS NE 5-10
KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048-054>057-064-065-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ042-043-
     049>051-058-059.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ044-045-052-
     053-061.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ060-062-
     063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ066-068.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC









000
FXUS63 KMPX 161824
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
124 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY SNOW...POTENTIALLY
1-2 IN/HR RATES...AND THE DRY SLOTTING ARRIVING FROM THE SW IS
BECOMING TIGHTER BUT ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER S. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING SATURATED...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOW MUCH MORE LIKELY
OVER A TIER OF COUNTIES S OF ORIGINAL THINKING. RAP/RUC GUIDANCE
FALLS IN LINE WELL WITH A NUMBER OF FEATURES...INCLUDING THE
LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THE DRY SLOT...ENHANCED FGEN AND STRONGER
LIFT. PLUS...COLDER AIR BEING MORE RESIDENT DUE TO STRONG ELY FLOW
WITHIN THE PRECIP AND SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS FURTHER S
HAVE FORCED LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPS AND HOURLY GRIDDED TEMPS.
ALL IN ALL...THIS MEANS AN OVERALL RAISING OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AND A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE COUNTIES INCLUDED
IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INCLUDING HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY
COUNTIES. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION RIGHT UP
TO THE TWIN CITIES AND WHEN PRECIP WOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW
LOOKS SMALLER /APPROXIMATELY 18Z-00Z/...WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF
WIGGLE ROOM ON EITHER SIDE WHEN -RASN MAY OCCUR. PRECIP LOOKS TO
CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL -SN BY ARND 02Z. THE CONCERN BY THEN IS
THAT THE UPPER TROF MAY BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WOULD CREATE BANDED HEAVIER SNOWFALL FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THIS COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL HEAVIER SNOWS THIS EVENING INTO TNGT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MODEL EVALUATIONS AND UPDATE THE FCST AS
NEEDED WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER TROUGH WAS ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MAIN
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN.  HI-RES MODELS AND NAM CAME IN WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THIS WAVE.  DUE TO THIS SLOW DOWN...THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE
ORIENTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA.  THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THESE
COUNTIES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH FROM MADISON
THROUGH WILLMAR AND BUFFALO. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BAND STILL MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE WARNING
AREA...BUT NORTHEASTERN STEARNS AND NORTHERN BENTON COUNTIES SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED GIVEN MORE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL QPF
PUSHING THESE AREAS INTO WARNING CRITERIA. THESE TWO COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR THE TWIN CITIES
METRO...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PUSH WELL NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER
AND KEEP THE METRO RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
TIME SATURATION IS ACHIEVED...IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PURELY
RAIN TO FALL. WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE TAKING MORE OF A TILT
TOWARD THE WEST...IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE METRO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. A QUICK BURST OF SNOW FOR THE METRO
COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES MAY REMAIN
MOSTLY WET. IN WESTERN WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES APPEAR SLIGHTLY
WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN
RAIN/SNOW PLACEMENT. SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY IN
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...BUT THE
COUNTIES IN THE WARNING STILL LOOK TO SEE SIX OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. THE SNOW WONT COME TO AN END IN WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW
FLURRIES OR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWERED TEMPS
A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT BRINGS WITH IT A NARROW
SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IOWA. GFS AND NAM SEEM MUCH TOO BULLISH ON AMOUNTS CONSIDERING THE
LARGE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ACCOMPANYING IT. GEM AND ECMWF DON/T ACKNOWLEDGE THIS FEATURE.
FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE IOWA
BORDER.

A SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING
MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER.

A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGHINESS
EMERGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S ON A NUMBER OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH. IT MAY
BRING SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DEPENDING ON ITS EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AXN/STC/RWF CONTINUE TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY MOD/HVY SNOW THIS AFTN
AS THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN AIR COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN LINGERS FROM SWRN MN INTO N-CENTRAL MN.
MSP/RNH/EAU HAVE EMERGED TO HAVE LITTLE-TO-NO PRECIP AT 16/18Z
INITIALIZATION...BUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS TIME THE PRECIPITATION
AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD...BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE ERN
TAFS. PRECIP LOOKS TO RETURN AS -RA FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO -RASN BEFORE ALL -SN. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES
MESOSCALE BANDING OF PRECIP FOR THESE ERN SITES AS THE UPR LEVEL
TROF PIVOTS ALOFT OVER SRN MN THIS EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ENHANCED LOCALIZED LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR-WORTHY
HVY SNOW THIS EVENING. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ADVERTISED THIS
ATTM. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LARGELY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS BY
06Z THIS EVE...A LITTLE LATER FOR THE WI SITES. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
WITHIN THE BLYR...BUT AM NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON THIS IDEA DUE TO THE
STRONG LLVL NW WINDS XPCTD SO ASIDE FROM MVFR CIGS...HAVE LEFT
VSBY AS IMPROVING TO VFR.

KMSP...DEFINITIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP HAS DEVELOP OVER MSP...
GOING MAINLY S AND E FROM THERE...WHILE PRECIP IS NOT FAR OFF AT
ALL GOING N AND W. AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...THIS DRY PERIOD WILL
COME TO AN END WITH -RA RETURNING FROM THE W BY MID-AFTN. TEMPS IN
THE MID-30S WILL ALLOW FOR A P-TYPE OF SHOWERY -RA WHEN IT
RESUMES. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRES
CENTER SHIFTING EWD OVER SRN MN LATE THIS AFTN...PRECIP WILL MIX
WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO -SN. SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL BANDS OF MOD-HVY
SNOW...DUE TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS BUT ITS POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH TO
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THIS EVENING. CONDS IMPROVE LATE OVERNIGHT
THRU THE DAY TMRW TO VFR WHILE WINDS TAKE ON A DRIER NW FLOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS NE 5-10
KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048-054>057-064-065-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ058>063-
     066-068.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ025-027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 161622
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY SNOW...POTENTIALLY
1-2 IN/HR RATES...AND THE DRY SLOTTING ARRIVING FROM THE SW IS
BECOMIGN TIGHTER BUT ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER S. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING SATURATED...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOW MUCH MORE LIKELY
OVER A TIER OF COUNTIES S OF ORIGINAL THINKING. RAP/RUC GUIDANCE
FALLS IN LINE WELL WITH A NUMBER OF FEATURES...INCLUDING THE
LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THE DRY SLOT...ENHANCED FGEN AND STRONGER
LIFT. PLUS...COLDER AIR BEING MORE RESIDENT DUE TO STRONG ELY FLOW
WITHIN THE PRECIP AND SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS FURTHER S
HAVE FORCED LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPS AND HOURLY GRIDDED TEMPS.
ALL IN ALL...THIS MEANS AN OVERALL RAISING OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AND A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE COUNTIES INCLUDED
IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INCLUDING HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY
COUNTIES. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION RIGHT UP
TO THE TWIN CITIES AND WHEN PRECIP WOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW
LOOKS SMALLER /APPROXIMATELY 18Z-00Z/...WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF
WIGGLE ROOM ON EITHER SIDE WHEN -RASN MAY OCCUR. PRECIP LOOKS TO
CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL -SN BY ARND 02Z. THE CONCERN BY THEN IS
THAT THE UPPER TROF MAY BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WOULD CREATE BANDED HEAVIER SNOWFALL FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THIS COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL HEAVIER SNOWS THIS EVENING INTO TNGT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MODEL EVALUATIONS AND UPDATE THE FCST AS
NEEDED WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER TROUGH WAS ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MAIN
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN.  HI-RES MODELS AND NAM CAME IN WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THIS WAVE.  DUE TO THIS SLOW DOWN...THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE
ORIENTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA.  THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THESE
COUNTIES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH FROM MADISON THROUGH
WILLMAR AND BUFFALO.  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND
STILL MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE WARNING AREA...BUT NORTHEASTERN
STEARNS AND NORTHERN BENTON COUNTIES SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED
GIVEN MORE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL QPF PUSHING THESE AREAS INTO
WARNING CRITERIA.  THESE TWO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
PUSH WELL NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER AND KEEP THE METRO RELATIVELY
QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING.  BY THE TIME SATURATION IS ACHIEVED...IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PURELY RAIN TO FALL.  WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TAKING MORE OF A TILT TOWARD THE WEST...IT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL.  A QUICK BURST OF SNOW FOR THE
METRO COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY WET. IN WESTERN WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN RAIN/SNOW PLACEMENT.  SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY IN
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  SO...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...BUT THE
COUNTIES IN THE WARNING STILL LOOK TO SEE SIX OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. THE SNOW WONT COME TO AN END IN WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW
FLURRIES OR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWERED TEMPS
A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT BRINGS WITH IT A NARROW
SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IOWA. GFS AND NAM SEEM MUCH TOO BULLISH ON AMOUNTS CONSIDERING THE
LARGE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ACCOMPANYING IT. GEM AND ECMWF DON/T ACKNOWLEDGE THIS FEATURE.
FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE IOWA BORDER.

A SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING
MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER.

A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGHINESS
EMERGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S ON A NUMBER OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH. IT MAY
BRING SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DEPENDING ON ITS EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AXN AND ESPECIALLY STC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW TODAY. STC LOOKS TO BE VERY ALONG THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATION...WITH THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURRING MID DAY THERE. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE IOWA BORDER AND EVENTUALLY
TAKE A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WILL
POKE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING...SO DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT
MSP. RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN FROM THIS EVENT...BUT SNOW WILL CERTAINLY MIX IN FOR A
TIME. THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SETUP JUST NORTH OF
THE METRO...SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AS IT DEVELOPS.

KMSP...ITS POSSIBLE A SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COMES DOWN MID
MORNING...BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OUTRUN THE METRO BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. THINKING THERE IS A
DECENT SHOT OF THIS...SO JUST INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THIS MORNING.
BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION GETS HERE MIDDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT RAIN...AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL EVENING WHEN SNOW
FINALLY MIXES IT. ACCUMULATION AT MSP IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR...AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048-054>057-064-065-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ058>063-
     066-068.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ025-027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 161158
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER TROUGH WAS ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MAIN
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN.  HI-RES MODELS AND NAM CAME IN WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THIS WAVE.  DUE TO THIS SLOW DOWN...THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE
ORIENTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA.  THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THESE
COUNTIES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH FROM MADISON THROUGH
WILLMAR AND BUFFALO.  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND
STILL MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE WARNING AREA...BUT NORTHEASTERN
STEARNS AND NORTHERN BENTON COUNTIES SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED
GIVEN MORE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL QPF PUSHING THESE AREAS INTO
WARNING CRITERIA.  THESE TWO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
PUSH WELL NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER AND KEEP THE METRO RELATIVELY
QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING.  BY THE TIME SATURATION IS ACHIEVED...IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PURELY RAIN TO FALL.  WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TAKING MORE OF A TILT TOWARD THE WEST...IT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL.  A QUICK BURST OF SNOW FOR THE
METRO COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY WET. IN WESTERN WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN RAIN/SNOW PLACEMENT.  SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY IN
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  SO...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...BUT THE
COUNTIES IN THE WARNING STILL LOOK TO SEE SIX OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. THE SNOW WONT COME TO AN END IN WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW
FLURRIES OR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWERED TEMPS
A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT BRINGS WITH IT A NARROW
SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IOWA. GFS AND NAM SEEM MUCH TOO BULLISH ON AMOUNTS CONSIDERING THE
LARGE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ACCOMPANYING IT. GEM AND ECMWF DON/T ACKNOWLEDGE THIS FEATURE.
FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE IOWA BORDER.

A SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING
MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER.

A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGHINESS
EMERGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S ON A NUMBER OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH. IT MAY
BRING SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DEPENDING ON ITS EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AXN AND ESPECIALLY STC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW TODAY. STC LOOKS TO BE VERY ALONG THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATION...WITH THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURRING MID DAY THERE. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE IOWA BORDER AND EVENTUALLY
TAKE A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WILL
POKE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING...SO DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT
MSP. RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN FROM THIS EVENT...BUT SNOW WILL CERTAINLY MIX IN FOR A
TIME. THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SETUP JUST NORTH OF
THE METRO...SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AS IT DEVELOPS.

KMSP...ITS POSSIBLE A SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COMES DOWN MID
MORNING...BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OUTRUN THE METRO BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. THINKING THERE IS A
DECENT SHOT OF THIS...SO JUST INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THIS MORNING.
BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION GETS HERE MIDDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT RAIN...AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL EVENING WHEN SNOW
FINALLY MIXES IT. ACCUMULATION AT MSP IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR...AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ058-059-
     061-063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ054>057.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 160915
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER TROUGH WAS ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MAIN
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN.  HI-RES MODELS AND NAM CAME IN WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THIS WAVE.  DUE TO THIS SLOW DOWN...THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE
ORIENTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA.  THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THESE
COUNTIES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH FROM MADISON THROUGH
WILLMAR AND BUFFALO.  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND
STILL MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE WARNING AREA...BUT NORTHEASTERN
STEARNS AND NORTHERN BENTON COUNTIES SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED
GIVEN MORE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL QPF PUSHING THESE AREAS INTO
WARNING CRITERIA.  THESE TWO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
PUSH WELL NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER AND KEEP THE METRO RELATIVELY
QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING.  BY THE TIME SATURATION IS ACHIEVED...IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PURELY RAIN TO FALL.  WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TAKING MORE OF A TILT TOWARD THE WEST...IT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL.  A QUICK BURST OF SNOW FOR THE
METRO COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY WET. IN WESTERN WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN RAIN/SNOW PLACEMENT.  SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY IN
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  SO...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...BUT THE
COUNTIES IN THE WARNING STILL LOOK TO SEE SIX OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. THE SNOW WONT COME TO AN END IN WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW
FLURRIES OR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWERED TEMPS
A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT BRINGS WITH IT A NARROW
SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IOWA. GFS AND NAM SEEM MUCH TOO BULLISH ON AMOUNTS CONSIDERING THE
LARGE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ACCOMPANYING IT. GEM AND ECMWF DON/T ACKNOWLEDGE THIS FEATURE.
FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE IOWA BORDER.

A SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING
MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER.

A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGHINESS
EMERGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S ON A NUMBER OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH. IT MAY
BRING SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DEPENDING ON ITS EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FROM KMSP ON EAST...WHILE
COLDER CONDITIONS AND MORE SNOW ARE NOW INDICATED FOR KAXN AND
KRWF. WORKED THESE NEW IDEAS INTO THE TAFS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BEST SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST AREAS OF MN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO
THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE EVENING AND BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...IMPROVED THE TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS INDICATED. MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN. RAIN
THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ058-059-061-063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ054>057.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 160356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUPPORT MODERATE AREAS OF SNOW
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WAS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE DAY SHIFT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST ON AMOUNTS REACHING 4 TO 6 INCHES IN STEVENS...POPE...DOUGLAS
AND STEARNS COUNTIES WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. IT BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS THE FARTHER
EAST YOU GO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH METRO AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG HIGHWAY 64. THE THINKING WAS THAT THERE
COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FALL QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS...WITH A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WITH MORE ACCUMULATION
LIKELY. THIS COULD IMPACT BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING RUSH HOUR.
A FINAL CONCERN IS THAT CHIPPEWA COUNTY WI MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED
WARNING CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT MAY MAY NEED AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SAID
FEATURE...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES ENSUING LOCALLY AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO EXPAND WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SOUTHERN SITES /SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ COULD ESCAPE THIS PRIMARY
BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD/FORMIDABLE AREA OF PRECIP
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS CERTAINLY CHALLENGING WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIP IN NORTHERN AREAS /LONG PRAIRIE TO CAMBRIDGE MN AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 8 IN WI/ WILL BE SNOW. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
AT LEAST 6-10 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH 15.12Z RUNS OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND GEM MODELS EVEN INDICATING A BAND OF 12-18 INCHES
ACROSS POLK/BARRON/RUSK COUNTIES. WHILE THE FORCING IS CERTAINLY
THERE...COULD LOSE A FAIR AMOUNT OF THAT PRECIP AS RAIN IF THE
MODELS ARE OFF ON THEIR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER. HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD THE 15.12Z ECMWF...WHICH
FEATURES 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND A ECMWF/NAM
BLEND FOR THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...WHICH YIELDS 1-3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RATHER QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 THETA_E ADVECTION AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BACKING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 10KFT...AND THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOGETHER WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH...AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE FRESH SNOW IS EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ELONGATED INTO A STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AS IT RIDES THE
UPSTREAM RIDGES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA_E
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER 500MB WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND HUDSON BAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP AS ALL RAIN...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN WEST CENTRAL WI. AS OF NOW RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FROM KMSP ON EAST...WHILE
COLDER CONDITIONS AND MORE SNOW ARE NOW INDICATED FOR KAXN AND
KRWF. WORKED THESE NEW IDEAS INTO THE TAFS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BEST SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST AREAS OF MN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO
THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE EVENING AND BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...IMPROVED THE TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS INDICATED. MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN. RAIN
THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ051-061-063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047>049.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ025-027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 160007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUPPORT MODERATE AREAS OF SNOW
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WAS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE DAY SHIFT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST ON AMOUNTS REACHING 4 TO 6 INCHES IN STEVENS...POPE...DOUGLAS
AND STEARNS COUNTIES WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. IT BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS THE FARTHER
EAST YOU GO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH METRO AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG HIGHWAY 64. THE THINKING WAS THAT THERE
COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FALL QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS...WITH A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WITH MORE ACCUMULATION
LIKELY. THIS COULD IMPACT BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING RUSH HOUR.
A FINAL CONCERN IS THAT CHIPPEWA COUNTY WI MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED
WARNING CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT MAY MAY NEED AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SAID
FEATURE...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES ENSUING LOCALLY AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO EXPAND WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SOUTHERN SITES /SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ COULD ESCAPE THIS PRIMARY
BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD/FORMIDABLE AREA OF PRECIP
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS CERTAINLY CHALLENGING WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIP IN NORTHERN AREAS /LONG PRAIRIE TO CAMBRIDGE MN AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 8 IN WI/ WILL BE SNOW. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
AT LEAST 6-10 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH 15.12Z RUNS OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND GEM MODELS EVEN INDICATING A BAND OF 12-18 INCHES
ACROSS POLK/BARRON/RUSK COUNTIES. WHILE THE FORCING IS CERTAINLY
THERE...COULD LOSE A FAIR AMOUNT OF THAT PRECIP AS RAIN IF THE
MODELS ARE OFF ON THEIR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER. HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD THE 15.12Z ECMWF...WHICH
FEATURES 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND A ECMWF/NAM
BLEND FOR THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...WHICH YIELDS 1-3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RATHER QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 THETA_E ADVECTION AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BACKING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 10KFT...AND THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOGETHER WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH...AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE FRESH SNOW IS EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ELONGATED INTO A STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AS IT RIDES THE
UPSTREAM RIDGES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA_E
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER 500MB WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND HUDSON BAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP AS ALL RAIN...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN WEST CENTRAL WI. AS OF NOW RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN AN ARC FROM WEST
CENTRAL MN INTO WISC BUT SOUTHERN EDGE MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MN. MAIN
SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NE THEN SECOND AREA OF PRECIP MOVED
IN OR DEVELOPS FROM SW/WC MN INTO EC MN AND WISC. NORTHERNMOST
AREAS SUCH AS AXN...STC AND RPD WILL LIKELY STAY AS SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY RNH... BUT FARTHER SOUTH...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO
LIGHT RAIN. MAIN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES MN/WI
AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
IT SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME CONCERN FOR IFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AMID DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BEFORE
PRECIP TURNS BACK TO SNOW IN SOUTHERN MN OR EAU CLAIRE AREA.

WINDS BELOW 4K FEET WILL BE RATHER STRONG AFTER 06Z...REACHING 40
KNOTS AT 3K. BUT THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BE GRADUAL WITH
HEIGHT RATHER THAN ABRUPT SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

KMSP...
TWO TIMES OF CONCERN FOR SNOW...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF
IFR VSBYS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING DURING SECOND
WAVE OF PRECIP. THE OTHER TIME FOR SOME SNOW IS THE FIRST WAVE
AROUND 12Z... BUT THIS WILL MORE LIKELY BE MVFR AS IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW AND THE
WINDOW FOR 12Z MVFR SNOW IS BRIEF BEFORE THE SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION PUSHES OFF. BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES OF SNOW...TEMPS WILL
RISE AND RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS QUITE POSSIBLE. SOME CONCERN FOR IFR
CEILINGS IN LIGHT RAIN WED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE
MVFR.

ALSO...A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF AS IT LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT GRADUAL INCREASE OF SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ051-061-063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047>049.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ025-027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDK










000
FXUS63 KMPX 152214
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
514 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUPPORT MODERATE AREAS OF SNOW
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WAS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE DAY SHIFT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST ON AMOUNTS REACHING 4 TO 6 INCHES IN STEVENS...POPE...DOUGLAS
AND STEARNS COUNTIES WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. IT BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS THE FARTHER
EAST YOU GO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH METRO AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG HIGHWAY 64. THE THINKING WAS THAT THERE
COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FALL QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS...WITH A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WITH MORE ACCUMULATION
LIKELY. THIS COULD IMPACT BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING RUSH HOUR.
A FINAL CONCERN IS THAT CHIPPEWA COUNTY WI MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED
WARNING CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT MAY MAY NEED AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SAID
FEATURE...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES ENSUING LOCALLY AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO EXPAND WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SOUTHERN SITES /SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ COULD ESCAPE THIS PRIMARY
BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD/FORMIDABLE AREA OF PRECIP
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS CERTAINLY CHALLENGING WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIP IN NORTHERN AREAS /LONG PRAIRIE TO CAMBRIDGE MN AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 8 IN WI/ WILL BE SNOW. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
AT LEAST 6-10 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH 15.12Z RUNS OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND GEM MODELS EVEN INDICATING A BAND OF 12-18 INCHES
ACROSS POLK/BARRON/RUSK COUNTIES. WHILE THE FORCING IS CERTAINLY
THERE...COULD LOSE A FAIR AMOUNT OF THAT PRECIP AS RAIN IF THE
MODELS ARE OFF ON THEIR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER. HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD THE 15.12Z ECMWF...WHICH
FEATURES 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND A ECMWF/NAM
BLEND FOR THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...WHICH YIELDS 1-3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RATHER QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 THETA_E ADVECTION AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BACKING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 10KFT...AND THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOGETHER WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH...AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE FRESH SNOW IS EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ELONGATED INTO A STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AS IT RIDES THE
UPSTREAM RIDGES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA_E
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER 500MB WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND HUDSON BAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP AS ALL RAIN...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN WEST CENTRAL WI. AS OF NOW RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING UNTIL SNOW MOVES INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST BAND WILL AFFECT KAXN AND
KSTC BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY
MISS OUT ON THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITION LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. PRECIP
TYPE DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KAXN AND POSSIBLY KSTC/KRNH...BUT THEN SITES WILL GRADUALLY
CHANCE BACK OVER TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY EVE.

WINDS WILL BE SCREAMING BETWEEN 1000-3000FT BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z
WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI /KEAU/ WHERE 0-1KM
SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS/KM.

KMSP...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHNACE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AFTER 09Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
17Z WED. SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW WEDNESDAY EVE. A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF AS IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SPEED VS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN.
FRI NIGHT. WINDS NE 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ051-061-063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047>049.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ025-027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 151952
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
252 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATE &&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SAID
FEATURE...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES ENSUING LOCALLY AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO EXPAND WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SOUTHERN SITES /SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ COULD ESCAPE THIS PRIMARY
BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD/FORMIDABLE AREA OF PRECIP
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS CERTAINLY CHALLENGING WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIP IN NORTHERN AREAS /LONG PRAIRIE TO CAMBRIDGE MN AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 8 IN WI/ WILL BE SNOW. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
AT LEAST 6-10 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH 15.12Z RUNS OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND GEM MODELS EVEN INDICATING A BAND OF 12-18 INCHES
ACROSS POLK/BARRON/RUSK COUNTIES. WHILE THE FORCING IS CERTAINLY
THERE...COULD LOSE A FAIR AMOUNT OF THAT PRECIP AS RAIN IF THE
MODELS ARE OFF ON THEIR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER. HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD THE 15.12Z ECMWF...WHICH
FEATURES 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND A ECMWF/NAM
BLEND FOR THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...WHICH YIELDS 1-3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RATHER QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 THETA_E ADVECTION AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BACKING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 10KFT...AND THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOGETHER WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH...AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE FRESH SNOW IS EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ELONGATED INTO A STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AS IT RIDES THE
UPSTREAM RIDGES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA_E
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER 500MB WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND HUDSON BAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP AS ALL RAIN...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN WEST CENTRAL WI. AS OF NOW RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING UNTIL SNOW MOVES INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST BAND WILL AFFECT KAXN AND
KSTC BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY
MISS OUT ON THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITION LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. PRECIP
TYPE DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KAXN AND POSSIBLY KSTC/KRNH...BUT THEN SITES WILL GRADUALLY
CHANCE BACK OVER TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY EVE.

WINDS WILL BE SCREAMING BETWEEN 1000-3000FT BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z
WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI /KEAU/ WHERE 0-1KM
SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS/KM.

KMSP...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHNACE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AFTER 09Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
17Z WED. SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW WEDNESDAY EVE. A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF AS IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SPEED VS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN.
FRI NIGHT. WINDS NE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 151932
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...FOR SHORT TERM AND 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SAID
FEATURE...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES ENSUING LOCALLY AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO EXPAND WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SOUTHERN SITES /SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ COULD ESCAPE THIS PRIMARY
BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD/FORMIDABLE AREA OF PRECIP
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS CERTAINLY CHALLENGING WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIP IN NORTHERN AREAS /LONG PRAIRIE TO CAMBRIDGE MN AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 8 IN WI/ WILL BE SNOW. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
AT LEAST 6-10 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH 15.12Z RUNS OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND GEM MODELS EVEN INDICATING A BAND OF 12-18 INCHES
ACROSS POLK/BARRON/RUSK COUNTIES. WHILE THE FORCING IS CERTAINLY
THERE...COULD LOSE A FAIR AMOUNT OF THAT PRECIP AS RAIN IF THE
MODELS ARE OFF ON THEIR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER. HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD THE 15.12Z ECMWF...WHICH
FEATURES 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND A ECMWF/NAM
BLEND FOR THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...WHICH YIELDS 1-3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LEADING BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
WILL BE SETUP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WILL BE MAINLY
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE MPX FA. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE INITIAL BAND AS THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FAST
GFS AND SLOW ECMWF. THE NAM SPLITS THESE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO STILL DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT IN THAT REGARD. DESPITE
THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIES SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY
AS THE FORCING COMES TOGETHER. A WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE STRONG 700H OMEGA IS
MAXIMIZED ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY (BETWEEN ST. CLOUD AND
BRAINERD) OFF THE NAM WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE GREATEST FN
VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENESIS. DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FROM JET LEVEL DOWN TO THE
LOW LEVELS INDICATES THIS AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT AS WELL. CROSS SECTIONS OFF THE NAM INDICATE
NEGATIVE EPV ALOFT AND THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION EXEMPLIFIED
THE DEEP LIFT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
OBVIOUSLY PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST AS THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS STILL LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. BUT OVERALL...NORTH OF ST. CLOUD STILL LOOKS
TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN
MIXING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TWIN CITIES METRO WILL
SEE PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST. CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS NOT
ACHIEVED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAME COUNTIES FOR NOW.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE STORM...AND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE WORK
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A WAVE BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR
TO COMBAT...SO DECIDED CHANCE POPS WERE IDEAL FOR NOW. WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING UNTIL SNOW MOVES INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST BAND WILL AFFECT KAXN AND
KSTC BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY
MISS OUT ON THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITION LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. PRECIP
TYPE DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KAXN AND POSSIBLY KSTC/KRNH...BUT THEN SITES WILL GRADUALLY
CHANCE BACK OVER TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY EVE.

WINDS WILL BE SCREAMING BETWEEN 1000-3000FT BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z
WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI /KEAU/ WHERE 0-1KM
SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS/KM.

KMSP...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHNACE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AFTER 09Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
17Z WED. SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW WEDNESDAY EVE. A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF AS IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SPEED VS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN.
FRI NIGHT. WINDS NE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ015-016.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 151154
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

JUST AS THE TROUGH OVERHEAD PIVOTS AND SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
TODAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP OUR PRECIP EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR ALREADY SHOWS GOOD
DRYING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AND 120DM 12-HR 500MB HEIGHTS
FALLS ACROSS OREGON. THE COLD POCKET OVERHEAD LOCALLY REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LLJ TONIGHT IS QUITE
STRONG. AT 12Z TOMORROW MORNING...THE ECMWF HAS 50KTS AT 850MB DOWN
NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER - THE GFS AND NAM HAVE 60KTS AND 65KTS
RESPECTIVELY. SO...THAT WILL CERTAINLY SET UP A NICE WARM SECTOR AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE TOMORROW MORNING. THE RESULTING FGEN WILL BEGIN
GENERATING SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE REST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THE EARLY ECHOES THAT FORM TOMORROW
EVENING IN SD/ND WILL POINT THE WAY TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL LOCATION OF PRECIP...BUT THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE P-TYPE IN CENTRAL
MN SHOULD BE ALMOST COMPLETELY SNOW. THERE COULD ALREADY BE 1-2" ON
THE GROUND IN CENTRAL MN BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LEADING BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
WILL BE SETUP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WILL BE MAINLY
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE MPX FA. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE INITIAL BAND AS THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FAST
GFS AND SLOW ECMWF. THE NAM SPLITS THESE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO STILL DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT IN THAT REGARD. DESPITE
THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIES SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY
AS THE FORCING COMES TOGETHER. A WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE STRONG 700H OMEGA IS
MAXIMIZED ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY (BETWEEN ST. CLOUD AND
BRAINERD) OFF THE NAM WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE GREATEST FN
VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENESIS. DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FROM JET LEVEL DOWN TO THE
LOW LEVELS INDICATES THIS AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT AS WELL. CROSS SECTIONS OFF THE NAM INDICATE
NEGATIVE EPV ALOFT AND THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION EXEMPLIFIED
THE DEEP LIFT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
OBVIOUSLY PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST AS THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS STILL LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. BUT OVERALL...NORTH OF ST. CLOUD STILL LOOKS
TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN
MIXING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TWIN CITIES METRO WILL
SEE PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST. CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS NOT
ACHIEVED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAME COUNTIES FOR NOW.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE STORM...AND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE WORK
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A WAVE BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR
TO COMBAT...SO DECIDED CHANCE POPS WERE IDEAL FOR NOW. WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. KAXN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KSTC
ARE THE ONLY TWO SITES THAT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z TOMORROW.
THE SNOW...EVENTUALLY MIXED WITH RAIN SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH
OF KMSP/KRNH/KRWF/KEAU THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MUCH BIGGER
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITION LATE IN THE DAY
TOMORROW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A REALLY STRONG WIND BETWEEN
1000-3000FT TOMORROW MORNING...SO THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE SOME
BUMPS ON LANDING AND TAKE OFF TOMORROW MORNING.

KMSP...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS. VFR EXPECTED. WE
THINK THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN A BREAK...AND THEN THE RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO A WET SNOW TOMORROW
EVENING. WE ALSO EXPECT A STRONG /40-50KT/ LOW LEVEL WIND TOMORROW
MORNING. SO...IT COULD BE A BIT BUMPY ON LANDING AND TAKE OFF
TOMORROW MORNING. BUT OVERALL...WE THINK VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE TONIGHT AND LIKELY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW EVEN IF THERE IS LIGHT PRECIP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN. FRI NIGHT. WINDS NE
10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 150941
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
441 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

JUST AS THE TROUGH OVERHEAD PIVOTS AND SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
TODAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP OUR PRECIP EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR ALREADY SHOWS GOOD
DRYING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AND 120DM 12-HR 500MB HEIGHTS
FALLS ACROSS OREGON. THE COLD POCKET OVERHEAD LOCALLY REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LLJ TONIGHT IS QUITE
STRONG. AT 12Z TOMORROW MORNING...THE ECMWF HAS 50KTS AT 850MB DOWN
NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER - THE GFS AND NAM HAVE 60KTS AND 65KTS
RESPECTIVELY. SO...THAT WILL CERTAINLY SET UP A NICE WARM SECTOR AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE TOMORROW MORNING. THE RESULTING FGEN WILL BEGIN
GENERATING SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE REST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THE EARLY ECHOES THAT FORM TOMORROW
EVENING IN SD/ND WILL POINT THE WAY TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL LOCATION OF PRECIP...BUT THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE P-TYPE IN CENTRAL
MN SHOULD BE ALMOST COMPLETELY SNOW. THERE COULD ALREADY BE 1-2" ON
THE GROUND IN CENTRAL MN BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LEADING BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
WILL BE SETUP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WILL BE MAINLY
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE MPX FA. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE INITIAL BAND AS THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FAST
GFS AND SLOW ECMWF. THE NAM SPLITS THESE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO STILL DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT IN THAT REGARD. DESPITE
THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIES SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY
AS THE FORCING COMES TOGETHER. A WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE STRONG 700H OMEGA IS
MAXIMIZED ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY (BETWEEN ST. CLOUD AND
BRAINERD) OFF THE NAM WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE GREATEST FN
VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENESIS. DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FROM JET LEVEL DOWN TO THE
LOW LEVELS INDICATES THIS AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT AS WELL. CROSS SECTIONS OFF THE NAM INDICATE
NEGATIVE EPV ALOFT AND THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION EXEMPLIFIED
THE DEEP LIFT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
OBVIOUSLY PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST AS THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS STILL LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. BUT OVERALL...NORTH OF ST. CLOUD STILL LOOKS
TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN
MIXING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TWIN CITIES METRO WILL
SEE PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST. CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS NOT
ACHIEVED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAME COUNTIES FOR NOW.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE STORM...AND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE WORK
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A WAVE BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR
TO COMBAT...SO DECIDED CHANCE POPS WERE IDEAL FOR NOW. WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. NW WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BACKING TO THE WSW ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH. INDICATED VCSH FOR NOW. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND THEN BACK TO THE SW BY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS BACKING TO THE ESE TUESDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. A SMALL THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...MVFR/IFR. RAIN LIKELY. WINDS E 10-15 KTS BECOMING NE.
WED NGT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS NE 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 150344
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1044 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH 85H TEMPS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. EVEN WITH A HIGH ANGLE APRIL SUN...TEMPS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 40 DEGREES. THERE WERE EVEN SOME TEMPS BLW
FREEZING STILL AS OF 2 PM. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS HAS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S...AND TEENS BY EARLY MORNING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE AS
COLD. A LATE WINTER STORM IS IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MID WEEK...BUT
TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM. TUESDAY AFTN HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THIS EXTENDED PORTION...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ALREADY
RESIDENT OVER THE AREA /-5 TO -10 DEG C AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD/...A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES CENTER WILL DROP SE FROM WRN
CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW IS TRAVERSING UNDER A
STRONG WNW-ESE UPR LVL FLOW THAT WILL BRING IT OVER THE DAKOTAS
WED NIGHT. HELPING TO NUDGE THIS SFC SYSTEM ALONG IS A SHORTWAVE
TROF AXIS...WHICH WILL DIG DEEPER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON ITS NRN AND ERN PORTIONS...WHICH WILL MAKE
THE PRECIP START ACRS THE MPX CWFA LATE TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WED AND WED NIGHT. WITH NEUTRAL TO
POTENTIALLY COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...BOTH IN
CENTRAL-ERN MN AND W-CENTRAL WI. ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOOKS
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED FROM THE 290K THRU 300K SFCS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM ON MULTIPLE MODELS. TRANSLATING THIS TO SIGNIFICANT
WX...THIS MEANS THAT PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF
WINDOW WHERE IT WOULD MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...CONTINUING ITS ACCUMULATION...WHILE CENTRAL AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL MORE DEFINITIVELY TRANSITION TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SFC LOW SHIFTS ACRS THE REGION DURG THE DAY
WED...ADDITIONAL COLD AIR BEING DRAGGED INTO THE REGION ON ITS
BACKSIDE WILL FORCE THE P-TYPE BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE DAY
WED AND CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
MRNG THU. WITH THE PRECIP BEING -SN FOR THE LONGEST DURATION OVER
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND GROUND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS N OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...AND POTENTIALLY UP
TO AROUND 8 INCHES...ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO HAVE OPTED TO RAISE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NRN AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THIS
WILL VERY LIKELY BE A HEAVY WET SNOW DUE TO QPF IN THE 0.40-0.70
INCH RANGE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN PORTIONS. HAVE BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER QPF AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM/EC AND
15Z SREF. PREVIOUSLY...THE 00Z EC WAS WELL BELOW ALL THE OTHER
MODELS BUT THIS LATEST RUN HAS COME RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
W TO E ACRS THE CWFA EARLY THU MRNG WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE LWR TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY THRU FRI NIGHT...THE CLIPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
DURG THE DAY ON THU WHILE LEAVING A LINGERING QUASI-STNRY FRONT IN
ITS WAKE OVER MI-IL-MO. HIGH PRES TRAVERSING EWD OVER S-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL EXTEND SWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS-MN-WI DURG THE DAY ON
WED... RESULTING IN A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO ARND
40. THIS HIGH PRES SPOKE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E WHILE THE STNRY FNT
TO THE S SHIFTS N AS A WMFNT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL S OF
THE AREA AS IT TURNS E AND NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT AGAIN
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LINGERING FNT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCTD -RA/-SN SHWRS THU NIGHT THRU EARLY FRI NIGHT
OVER MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF NOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME
LIGHT -SN THAT WILL FALL DURG THIS TIME.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION SAT INTO SUN UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS ONE WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF
-RA/-SN...BUT ALSO LIKE THE ONE FOR THU-FRI...THIS ONE WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS
SYSTEM DOES RIDE IN ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A LARGE BUILDING UPR LVL
RIDGE MOVG EWD FROM THE WRN CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. NW WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BACKING TO THE WSW ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH. INDICATED VCSH FOR NOW. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND THEN BACK TO THE SW BY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS BACKING TO THE ESE TUESDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. A SMALL THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...MVFR/IFR. RAIN LIKELY. WINDS E 10-15 KTS BECOMING NE.
WED NGT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS NE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH










000
FXUS63 KMPX 142343
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH 85H TEMPS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. EVEN WITH A HIGH ANGLE APRIL SUN...TEMPS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 40 DEGREES. THERE WERE EVEN SOME TEMPS BLW
FREEZING STILL AS OF 2 PM. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS HAS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S...AND TEENS BY EARLY MORNING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE AS
COLD. A LATE WINTER STORM IS IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MID WEEK...BUT
TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM. TUESDAY AFTN HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THIS EXTENDED PORTION...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ALREADY
RESIDENT OVER THE AREA /-5 TO -10 DEG C AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD/...A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES CENTER WILL DROP SE FROM WRN
CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW IS TRAVERSING UNDER A
STRONG WNW-ESE UPR LVL FLOW THAT WILL BRING IT OVER THE DAKOTAS
WED NIGHT. HELPING TO NUDGE THIS SFC SYSTEM ALONG IS A SHORTWAVE
TROF AXIS...WHICH WILL DIG DEEPER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON ITS NRN AND ERN PORTIONS...WHICH WILL MAKE
THE PRECIP START ACRS THE MPX CWFA LATE TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WED AND WED NIGHT. WITH NEUTRAL TO
POTENTIALLY COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...BOTH IN
CENTRAL-ERN MN AND W-CENTRAL WI. ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOOKS
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED FROM THE 290K THRU 300K SFCS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM ON MULTIPLE MODELS. TRANSLATING THIS TO SIGNIFICANT
WX...THIS MEANS THAT PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF
WINDOW WHERE IT WOULD MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...CONTINUING ITS ACCUMULATION...WHILE CENTRAL AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL MORE DEFINITIVELY TRANSITION TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SFC LOW SHIFTS ACRS THE REGION DURG THE DAY
WED...ADDITIONAL COLD AIR BEING DRAGGED INTO THE REGION ON ITS
BACKSIDE WILL FORCE THE P-TYPE BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE DAY
WED AND CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
MRNG THU. WITH THE PRECIP BEING -SN FOR THE LONGEST DURATION OVER
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND GROUND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS N OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...AND POTENTIALLY UP
TO AROUND 8 INCHES...ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO HAVE OPTED TO RAISE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NRN AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THIS
WILL VERY LIKELY BE A HEAVY WET SNOW DUE TO QPF IN THE 0.40-0.70
INCH RANGE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN PORTIONS. HAVE BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER QPF AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM/EC AND
15Z SREF. PREVIOUSLY...THE 00Z EC WAS WELL BELOW ALL THE OTHER
MODELS BUT THIS LATEST RUN HAS COME RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
W TO E ACRS THE CWFA EARLY THU MRNG WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE LWR TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY THRU FRI NIGHT...THE CLIPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
DURG THE DAY ON THU WHILE LEAVING A LINGERING QUASI-STNRY FRONT IN
ITS WAKE OVER MI-IL-MO. HIGH PRES TRAVERSING EWD OVER S-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL EXTEND SWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS-MN-WI DURG THE DAY ON
WED... RESULTING IN A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO ARND
40. THIS HIGH PRES SPOKE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E WHILE THE STNRY FNT
TO THE S SHIFTS N AS A WMFNT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL S OF
THE AREA AS IT TURNS E AND NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT AGAIN
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LINGERING FNT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCTD -RA/-SN SHWRS THU NIGHT THRU EARLY FRI NIGHT
OVER MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF NOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME
LIGHT -SN THAT WILL FALL DURG THIS TIME.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION SAT INTO SUN UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS ONE WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF
-RA/-SN...BUT ALSO LIKE THE ONE FOR THU-FRI...THIS ONE WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS
SYSTEM DOES RIDE IN ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A LARGE BUILDING UPR LVL
RIDGE MOVG EWD FROM THE WRN CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN OVERNIGHT. VFR ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WNW WINDS TUESDAY MORNING
BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THIS CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH. WNW
WINDS TUESDAY MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY
EVENING. BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY BRUSH THE AIRFIELD IN THE 16/06Z-12Z TIME FRAME WITH MUCH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...MVFR/IFR WITH RA/SN LIKELY. WINDS E 10-20 KT...BECOMING
N-NE.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS NE 5-10
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 142114
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH 85H TEMPS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. EVEN WITH A HIGH ANGLE APRIL SUN...TEMPS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 40 DEGREES. THERE WERE EVEN SOME TEMPS BLW
FREEZING STILL AS OF 2 PM. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS HAS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S...AND TEENS BY EARLY MORNING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE AS
COLD. A LATE WINTER STORM IS IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MID WEEK...BUT
TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM. TUESDAY AFTN HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THIS EXTENDED PORTION...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ALREADY
RESIDENT OVER THE AREA /-5 TO -10 DEG C AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD/...A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES CENTER WILL DROP SE FROM WRN
CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW IS TRAVERSING UNDER A
STRONG WNW-ESE UPR LVL FLOW THAT WILL BRING IT OVER THE DAKOTAS
WED NIGHT. HELPING TO NUDGE THIS SFC SYSTEM ALONG IS A SHORTWAVE
TROF AXIS...WHICH WILL DIG DEEPER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON ITS NRN AND ERN PORTIONS...WHICH WILL MAKE
THE PRECIP START ACRS THE MPX CWFA LATE TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WED AND WED NIGHT. WITH NEUTRAL TO
POTENTIALLY COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...BOTH IN
CENTRAL-ERN MN AND W-CENTRAL WI. ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOOKS
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED FROM THE 290K THRU 300K SFCS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM ON MULTIPLE MODELS. TRANSLATING THIS TO SIGNIFICANT
WX...THIS MEANS THAT PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF
WINDOW WHERE IT WOULD MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...CONTINUING ITS ACCUMULATION...WHILE CENTRAL AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL MORE DEFINITIVELY TRANSITION TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SFC LOW SHIFTS ACRS THE REGION DURG THE DAY
WED...ADDITIONAL COLD AIR BEING DRAGGED INTO THE REGION ON ITS
BACKSIDE WILL FORCE THE P-TYPE BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE DAY
WED AND CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF WED NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
MRNG THU. WITH THE PRECIP BEING -SN FOR THE LONGEST DURATION OVER
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND GROUND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS N OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...AND POTENTIALLY UP
TO AROUND 8 INCHES...ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO HAVE OPTED TO RAISE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NRN AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THIS
WILL VERY LIKELY BE A HEAVY WET SNOW DUE TO QPF IN THE 0.40-0.70
INCH RANGE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN PORTIONS. HAVE BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER QPF AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM/EC AND
15Z SREF. PREVIOUSLY...THE 00Z EC WAS WELL BELOW ALL THE OTHER
MODELS BUT THIS LATEST RUN HAS COME RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
W TO E ACRS THE CWFA EARLY THU MRNG WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE LWR TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY THRU FRI NIGHT...THE CLIPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E
DURG THE DAY ON THU WHILE LEAVING A LINGERING QUASI-STNRY FRONT IN
ITS WAKE OVER MI-IL-MO. HIGH PRES TRAVERSING EWD OVER S-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL EXTEND SWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS-MN-WI DURG THE DAY ON
WED... RESULTING IN A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO ARND
40. THIS HIGH PRES SPOKE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E WHILE THE STNRY FNT
TO THE S SHIFTS N AS A WMFNT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL S OF
THE AREA AS IT TURNS E AND NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT AGAIN
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LINGERING FNT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCTD -RA/-SN SHWRS THU NIGHT THRU EARLY FRI NIGHT
OVER MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF NOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME
LIGHT -SN THAT WILL FALL DURG THIS TIME.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION SAT INTO SUN UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS ONE WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF
-RA/-SN...BUT ALSO LIKE THE ONE FOR THU-FRI...THIS ONE WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS
SYSTEM DOES RIDE IN ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A LARGE BUILDING UPR LVL
RIDGE MOVG EWD FROM THE WRN CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THIS
AFTN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 4K. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW/NNW WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS WILL DECREASE AFT 23-00Z WITH SPDS LESS THAN 7 KTS BY
2-4Z. WIND SPDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 7 KTS THRU 18Z TUESDAY...BUT
SLOWLY BECOME SE IN WC MN...TO SW IN WC WI.

KMSP...A FEW CLDS POSSIBLY CIGS ARND 5K TO 9K THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NW/NNW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFT
23-01Z...AND BECOME LESS THAN 7 KTS BY 2-4Z FROM THE NW. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAINING UNDER 7
KTS UNTIL AFT 00Z/16.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR WITH RA/SN LIKELY. WINDS E 10-20 KT...BECOMING
N-NE.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS NE 5-10
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT








000
FXUS63 KMPX 141649
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1149 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGES BEING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND THE
SKY COVER TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

WE THINK THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
IS ALSO MUCH DRIER 1000-850MB AIR SHOWING UP WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN NORTHERN MN AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN IN NORTHEAST MN AND IN WISCONSIN WHERE
THE CU RULE OFF THE NAM/RUC REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES. THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
ALSO SUGGEST A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...BUT THAT IS JUST WHAT WE
ARE DOING. TYPICALLY WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...IN MID APRIL...WITH
NO SNOW ON THE GROUND...YOU ARE CRAZY TO FORECAST UNDER 40 DEGREES
/NORMAL HIGHS ARE 55-57/...HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS IS UNUSUAL WITH
GREATER THAN -2SD 850MB TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP
BETWEEN -9C AND -12C BY THE AFTERNOON. WE THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WITH THE EXPECTED MIXING TO 725MB OFF
THE NAM/GFS...OUR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR JUST HITTING 40 LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE METRO OR IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL THAT WARM WITH A STIFF
NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...ST. CLOUD
AND EAU CLAIRE. WE WENT BACK AND LOOKED AT ALL THE RECORD COLD HIGHS
FROM APRIL 10 AND APRIL 20...EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF SNOW COVER ON
THESE COLD DAYS...BUT THERE WERE A SURPRISING NUMBER OF RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED WITH ZERO OR TRACE SNOW DEPTH. THIS
GIVES US MORE CONFIDENCE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S TODAY EVEN WITH
ALL THE BROWN GROUND OUT THERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WE`LL START OFF QUITE COLD AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TUESDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR (-15C AT 850H
ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF) IS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS
FEATURE IS THE ONE TO WATCH FOR BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW INTO OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY
WITH THE LINGERING POLAR AIR...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLONE...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONTANA TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TILT BACK AND THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TURN MORE TO A STRAIGHT EAST DIRECTION...RATHER
THAN SOUTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A 700H LOW BECOMES DEFINED NORTH
OF SIOUX FALLS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF MOVES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS THINKING RELIES MOSTLY ON THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING THIS
TROUGH. THE NAM TRIES A LOT HARDER TO MAKE THIS WAVE BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND IN TURN SLOW DOWN. STEERED CLEAR OF THE
NAM SOLUTION AS THE GFS/EC AGREED BETTER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAVE. THE MODELS ARE NOT TO THE POINT OF CONVERGING ON ONE
SOLUTION OR ANOTHER...LEAVING SOME DISAGREEMENT TO BE SORTED
OUT. REGARDLESS...THE MODELS STILL WANT TO PRECIPITATE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWN ACROSS THE BOARD FOR NUMEROUS MODEL RUNS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND LIFT ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL BE IN HIGH
GEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THETA-E ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STRONG F-GEN SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE A HEAVIER MESOSCALE BAND OF
SNOW. BEING OVER 48 HOURS AWAY THOUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE F-GEN
BAND IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...SO THAT IS WHERE MODEL CONVERGENCE
WILL COME IN TO PLAY FOR COMING FORECAST SHIFTS. INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK EXPECTED AND THERMAL PROFILE...THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF AN
EAST-WEST LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH ST. CLOUD...EVEN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...DECREASED THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN DURING THE DAYTIME ACROSS THIS AREA...AND BEING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE FA ARE NOW IN THE LOW 30S AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW ALL (OR MOSTLY) SNOW REACH THE GROUND. ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. UPPED FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE BOTH
IN THE FORCING/MOISTURE FIELDS...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. 2-5" OF
SNOW IS NOW IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF AND ALONG A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST. CLOUD...CHISAGO...AND BLOOMER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED ON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERING IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE`LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
A SYSTEM THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARD
CHICAGO...AND TRIES TO GRAZE THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
FA. BEYOND THAT...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THIS
AFTN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 4K. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW/NNW WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS WILL DECREASE AFT 23-00Z WITH SPDS LESS THAN 7 KTS BY
2-4Z. WIND SPDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 7 KTS THRU 18Z TUESDAY...BUT
SLOWLY BECOME SE IN WC MN...TO SW IN WC WI.

KMSP...

A FEW CLDS POSSIBLY CIGS ARND 5K TO 9K THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY NW/NNW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFT 23-01Z...AND
BECOME LESS THAN 7 KTS BY 2-4Z FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SW BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAINING UNDER 7 KTS UNTIL AFT
00Z/16.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE NIGHT...VFR. WIND E/NE ARND 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR WITH RA/SN LIKELY. WINDS E 10-20 KT...BECOMING N-NE.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS WITH RA/SN EARLY. WINDS NE 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT






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