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000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 052202
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052202
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 052202
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051758
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH
WINDS AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW
THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH
RATHER LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. THIS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
FAR WEST. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051758
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH
WINDS AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW
THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH
RATHER LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. THIS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
FAR WEST. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC





000
FXUS63 KMPX 051055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 051055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 051039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050909
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT W/NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050403
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT W/NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050403
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT W/NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS GOING BELOW 10 KT FROM
AROUND 03Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION AT RWF AS A SNOW SHOWER
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THAT TERMINAL. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
02-03Z THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS GOING BELOW 10 KT FROM
AROUND 03Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION AT RWF AS A SNOW SHOWER
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THAT TERMINAL. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
02-03Z THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS GOING BELOW 10 KT FROM
AROUND 03Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION AT RWF AS A SNOW SHOWER
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THAT TERMINAL. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
02-03Z THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL





000
FXUS63 KMPX 042216
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 042216
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 040854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STREAKS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
2000FT TONIGHT...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. WINDS WILL SLOW
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOME COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...BUT MN/WI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DRY/COLD AIR MASS...SO WE THINK CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A STRETCH AT
THIS POINT.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LOT OF VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STREAKS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
2000FT TONIGHT...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. WINDS WILL SLOW
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOME COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...BUT MN/WI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DRY/COLD AIR MASS...SO WE THINK CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A STRETCH AT
THIS POINT.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LOT OF VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 040510
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STREAKS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
2000FT TONIGHT...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. WINDS WILL SLOW
DIMINSH LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...BUT MN/WI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DRY/COLD AIR MASS...SO WE THINK CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A STRETCH AT
THIS POINT.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LOT OF VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040510
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STREAKS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
2000FT TONIGHT...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. WINDS WILL SLOW
DIMINSH LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...BUT MN/WI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DRY/COLD AIR MASS...SO WE THINK CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A STRETCH AT
THIS POINT.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LOT OF VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 040510
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STREAKS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
2000FT TONIGHT...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. WINDS WILL SLOW
DIMINSH LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...BUT MN/WI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DRY/COLD AIR MASS...SO WE THINK CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A STRETCH AT
THIS POINT.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LOT OF VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040510
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STREAKS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
2000FT TONIGHT...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. WINDS WILL SLOW
DIMINSH LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...BUT MN/WI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DRY/COLD AIR MASS...SO WE THINK CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A STRETCH AT
THIS POINT.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LOT OF VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 040033
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY. WINDS WILL SLOW DIMINSH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART LOOK FOR MANY HOURS OF VFR AND A WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040033
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY. WINDS WILL SLOW DIMINSH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART LOOK FOR MANY HOURS OF VFR AND A WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 040033
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY. WINDS WILL SLOW DIMINSH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART LOOK FOR MANY HOURS OF VFR AND A WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040033
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING...THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY. WINDS WILL SLOW DIMINSH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART LOOK FOR MANY HOURS OF VFR AND A WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 032100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

LAST BAND OF MOD/HEAVY SNOWFALL IN FAR EASTERN MN...MOVING TOWARD
THE ENE AT 45 KTS LATE THIS MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW IS
EVIDENT BEHIND THE MAIN BANDS IN CENTRAL MN...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS
MORE FLURRY ACTIVITY WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
TYPE REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN FAR WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD
ON REGIONAL RADAR WHERE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE IFR VSBY
IN BLSN IN WC/SW/SC MN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE WITH 1SM IN
BLSN AT KAXN/KRWF WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF 1/4SM BLSN AT KRWF
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNSH. ELSEWHERE...STRONG NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME AREAS OF 4-6SM IN BLSN. CONDS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS PAST 3Z.

KMSP...

BY 18Z...ONLY -SN IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HR WITH MORE BLSN REDUCING
VSBYS TEMPORARY TO 4-6SM THRU 1Z. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR BUT STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT WINDS OF 18-22 KTS BY
MID AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTN ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS BECOMING MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTN. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-064-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048-054>057-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BLIZZARD CONDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED BUT THERE WERE A
FEW AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL THAT HAD TEMPORARY WHITEOUT
CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS REMAINED STRONG THIS AFTN WITH 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE WAS A SMALL BAND
OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL NEAR ALEXANDRIA EARLIER TODAY
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WAS NOTED. ELSEWHERE...A QUICK
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN. FAR
SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY
CONFINED TO ROCHESTER.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH
WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED ON TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

NOT MUCH CHG FOR WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A VERY COLD MORNING REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A COLD POCKET NEAR -22C AT
850MB. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
COULD THIS BE OUR LAST BELOW ZERO READING FOR THE WINTER SEASON? THE
REASON BEING IS THAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE CONUS FROM A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO ONE THAT IS MORE ZONAL.
BETWEEN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FA RISE FROM 528DAM
TO 564DAM. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE WEEKEND WITH 40S AND EVEN SOME 50S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CERTAINLY A BIG CHANGE COMING
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING THE PATTERN
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND WAA
WILL COME A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

LAST BAND OF MOD/HEAVY SNOWFALL IN FAR EASTERN MN...MOVING TOWARD
THE ENE AT 45 KTS LATE THIS MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW IS
EVIDENT BEHIND THE MAIN BANDS IN CENTRAL MN...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS
MORE FLURRY ACTIVITY WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
TYPE REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN FAR WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD
ON REGIONAL RADAR WHERE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE IFR VSBY
IN BLSN IN WC/SW/SC MN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE WITH 1SM IN
BLSN AT KAXN/KRWF WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF 1/4SM BLSN AT KRWF
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNSH. ELSEWHERE...STRONG NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME AREAS OF 4-6SM IN BLSN. CONDS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS PAST 3Z.

KMSP...

BY 18Z...ONLY -SN IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HR WITH MORE BLSN REDUCING
VSBYS TEMPORARY TO 4-6SM THRU 1Z. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR BUT STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT WINDS OF 18-22 KTS BY
MID AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTN ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS BECOMING MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTN. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-064-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048-054>057-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 031718
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME OF THE FINE SCALE DETAILS
HAVE YET TO COME INTO COMPLETE FOCUS DUE TO SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THE HOURLY HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN IS INDEED FORMING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHEARING
VORTICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SECOND BAND IS SHOWING SOME
BEGINNING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAND
SHOULD ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE AREA IN BETWEEN...FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO AREAS OF FORCING BEGIN AND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FOR A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES THE SNOW EAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM SWRN/SCTRL MN TO WCTRL WI - MAYBE AROUND TWO
INCHES. THIS IS THE AREA PLAGUED MOST WITH UNCERTAINTY.

HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STRONGLY DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ISN/T MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW RATIO. THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW FOLLOWED BY A VERY RAPID RAMP UP OF THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WOULD PREFER
TO SEE 3 OR 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND...BUT IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO
HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO...PARTICULARLY IF IT
HAD JUST FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESERVATIONS WITH HOW FAR
EAST THE WARNING EXTENDS...WILL NOT CANCEL YET AND AWAIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW. THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
WOULD BE MEEKER...MCLEOD...SIBLEY...AND LE SUEUR.

THE WIND GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED 25-30 KT
AND 40+ KT GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH SOME
TEENS BELOW POSSIBLE IN WCTRL MN. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL DROP COLDER
THAN 25 BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MN...BUT WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT
HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARMING TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INITIAL COLD SHOT FOLLOWING TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 30
BELOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH EXTENSION OVER
NORTHEAST MN WILL DROP COLD POOL OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...BUT LIMITED THAT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
FOR NOW.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER WINDS BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.  READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHAT
VERIFIES FOR TUESDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO BRIEF COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS BUT
TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES THAT RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA IS DIFFICULT. CARRIED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO GREATEST THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE LATEST CFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES WERE SHOWING A WARMING TREND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  THIS VERIFIES THE
DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CIPS EXTENDED ANALOG THREAT
GUIDANCE TAKES US ALL THE WAY THROUGH MID MONTH...AND IS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOMENT...WE DID WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO SOME LOWER 50S FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA...EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

LAST BAND OF MOD/HEAVY SNOWFALL IN FAR EASTERN MN...MOVING TOWARD
THE ENE AT 45 KTS LATE THIS MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW IS
EVIDENT BEHIND THE MAIN BANDS IN CENTRAL MN...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS
MORE FLURRY ACTIVITY WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
TYPE REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN FAR WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD
ON REGIONAL RADAR WHERE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE IFR VSBY
IN BLSN IN WC/SW/SC MN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE WITH 1SM IN
BLSN AT KAXN/KRWF WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF 1/4SM BLSN AT KRWF
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNSH. ELSEWHERE...STRONG NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME AREAS OF 4-6SM IN BLSN. CONDS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS PAST 3Z.

KMSP...

BY 18Z...ONLY -SN IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HR WITH MORE BLSN REDUCING
VSBYS TEMPORARY TO 4-6SM THRU 1Z. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR BUT STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT WINDS OF 18-22 KTS BY
MID AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTN ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS BECOMING MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTN. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031718
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME OF THE FINE SCALE DETAILS
HAVE YET TO COME INTO COMPLETE FOCUS DUE TO SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THE HOURLY HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN IS INDEED FORMING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHEARING
VORTICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SECOND BAND IS SHOWING SOME
BEGINNING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAND
SHOULD ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE AREA IN BETWEEN...FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO AREAS OF FORCING BEGIN AND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FOR A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES THE SNOW EAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM SWRN/SCTRL MN TO WCTRL WI - MAYBE AROUND TWO
INCHES. THIS IS THE AREA PLAGUED MOST WITH UNCERTAINTY.

HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STRONGLY DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ISN/T MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW RATIO. THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW FOLLOWED BY A VERY RAPID RAMP UP OF THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WOULD PREFER
TO SEE 3 OR 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND...BUT IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO
HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO...PARTICULARLY IF IT
HAD JUST FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESERVATIONS WITH HOW FAR
EAST THE WARNING EXTENDS...WILL NOT CANCEL YET AND AWAIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW. THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
WOULD BE MEEKER...MCLEOD...SIBLEY...AND LE SUEUR.

THE WIND GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED 25-30 KT
AND 40+ KT GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH SOME
TEENS BELOW POSSIBLE IN WCTRL MN. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL DROP COLDER
THAN 25 BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MN...BUT WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT
HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARMING TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INITIAL COLD SHOT FOLLOWING TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 30
BELOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH EXTENSION OVER
NORTHEAST MN WILL DROP COLD POOL OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...BUT LIMITED THAT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
FOR NOW.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER WINDS BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.  READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHAT
VERIFIES FOR TUESDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO BRIEF COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS BUT
TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES THAT RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA IS DIFFICULT. CARRIED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO GREATEST THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE LATEST CFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES WERE SHOWING A WARMING TREND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  THIS VERIFIES THE
DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CIPS EXTENDED ANALOG THREAT
GUIDANCE TAKES US ALL THE WAY THROUGH MID MONTH...AND IS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOMENT...WE DID WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO SOME LOWER 50S FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA...EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

LAST BAND OF MOD/HEAVY SNOWFALL IN FAR EASTERN MN...MOVING TOWARD
THE ENE AT 45 KTS LATE THIS MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW IS
EVIDENT BEHIND THE MAIN BANDS IN CENTRAL MN...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS
MORE FLURRY ACTIVITY WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
TYPE REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN FAR WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD
ON REGIONAL RADAR WHERE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE IFR VSBY
IN BLSN IN WC/SW/SC MN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE WITH 1SM IN
BLSN AT KAXN/KRWF WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF 1/4SM BLSN AT KRWF
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNSH. ELSEWHERE...STRONG NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME AREAS OF 4-6SM IN BLSN. CONDS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS PAST 3Z.

KMSP...

BY 18Z...ONLY -SN IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HR WITH MORE BLSN REDUCING
VSBYS TEMPORARY TO 4-6SM THRU 1Z. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR BUT STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT WINDS OF 18-22 KTS BY
MID AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTN ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS BECOMING MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTN. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGHT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 031207 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME OF THE FINE SCALE DETAILS
HAVE YET TO COME INTO COMPLETE FOCUS DUE TO SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THE HOURLY HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN IS INDEED FORMING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHEARING
VORTICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SECOND BAND IS SHOWING SOME
BEGINNING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAND
SHOULD ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE AREA IN BETWEEN...FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO AREAS OF FORCING BEGIN AND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FOR A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES THE SNOW EAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM SWRN/SCTRL MN TO WCTRL WI - MAYBE AROUND TWO
INCHES. THIS IS THE AREA PLAGUED MOST WITH UNCERTAINTY.

HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STRONGLY DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ISN/T MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW RATIO. THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW FOLLOWED BY A VERY RAPID RAMP UP OF THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WOULD PREFER
TO SEE 3 OR 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND...BUT IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO
HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO...PARTICULARLY IF IT
HAD JUST FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESERVATIONS WITH HOW FAR
EAST THE WARNING EXTENDS...WILL NOT CANCEL YET AND AWAIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW. THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
WOULD BE MEEKER...MCLEOD...SIBLEY...AND LE SUEUR.

THE WIND GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED 25-30 KT
AND 40+ KT GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH SOME
TEENS BELOW POSSIBLE IN WCTRL MN. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL DROP COLDER
THAN 25 BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MN...BUT WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT
HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARMING TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INITIAL COLD SHOT FOLLOWING TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 30
BELOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH EXTENSION OVER
NORTHEAST MN WILL DROP COLD POOL OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...BUT LIMITED THAT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
FOR NOW.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER WINDS BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.  READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHAT
VERIFIES FOR TUESDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO BRIEF COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS BUT
TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES THAT RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA IS DIFFICULT. CARRIED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO GREATEST THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE LATEST CFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES WERE SHOWING A WARMING TREND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  THIS VERIFIES THE
DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CIPS EXTENDED ANALOG THREAT
GUIDANCE TAKES US ALL THE WAY THROUGH MID MONTH...AND IS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOMENT...WE DID WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO SOME LOWER 50S FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA...EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW CONTINUES FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN...BUT SNOW IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN MN WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 14Z. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR 3-4 HOURS
BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM KDTL TO
KETG AND KATY. IT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS WRN AND SRN MN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES CONTINUING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.

KMSP...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 13Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
RANGE FOR A TIME...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR.SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ANTICIPATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ058-066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ057-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031207 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME OF THE FINE SCALE DETAILS
HAVE YET TO COME INTO COMPLETE FOCUS DUE TO SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THE HOURLY HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN IS INDEED FORMING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHEARING
VORTICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SECOND BAND IS SHOWING SOME
BEGINNING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAND
SHOULD ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE AREA IN BETWEEN...FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO AREAS OF FORCING BEGIN AND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FOR A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES THE SNOW EAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM SWRN/SCTRL MN TO WCTRL WI - MAYBE AROUND TWO
INCHES. THIS IS THE AREA PLAGUED MOST WITH UNCERTAINTY.

HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STRONGLY DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ISN/T MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW RATIO. THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW FOLLOWED BY A VERY RAPID RAMP UP OF THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WOULD PREFER
TO SEE 3 OR 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND...BUT IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO
HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO...PARTICULARLY IF IT
HAD JUST FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESERVATIONS WITH HOW FAR
EAST THE WARNING EXTENDS...WILL NOT CANCEL YET AND AWAIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW. THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
WOULD BE MEEKER...MCLEOD...SIBLEY...AND LE SUEUR.

THE WIND GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED 25-30 KT
AND 40+ KT GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH SOME
TEENS BELOW POSSIBLE IN WCTRL MN. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL DROP COLDER
THAN 25 BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MN...BUT WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT
HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARMING TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INITIAL COLD SHOT FOLLOWING TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 30
BELOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH EXTENSION OVER
NORTHEAST MN WILL DROP COLD POOL OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...BUT LIMITED THAT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
FOR NOW.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER WINDS BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.  READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHAT
VERIFIES FOR TUESDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO BRIEF COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS BUT
TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES THAT RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA IS DIFFICULT. CARRIED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO GREATEST THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE LATEST CFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES WERE SHOWING A WARMING TREND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  THIS VERIFIES THE
DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CIPS EXTENDED ANALOG THREAT
GUIDANCE TAKES US ALL THE WAY THROUGH MID MONTH...AND IS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOMENT...WE DID WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO SOME LOWER 50S FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA...EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW CONTINUES FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN...BUT SNOW IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN MN WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 14Z. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR 3-4 HOURS
BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM KDTL TO
KETG AND KATY. IT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS WRN AND SRN MN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES CONTINUING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.

KMSP...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 13Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
RANGE FOR A TIME...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR.SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ANTICIPATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ058-066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ057-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 031207 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME OF THE FINE SCALE DETAILS
HAVE YET TO COME INTO COMPLETE FOCUS DUE TO SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THE HOURLY HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN IS INDEED FORMING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHEARING
VORTICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SECOND BAND IS SHOWING SOME
BEGINNING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAND
SHOULD ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE AREA IN BETWEEN...FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO AREAS OF FORCING BEGIN AND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FOR A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES THE SNOW EAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM SWRN/SCTRL MN TO WCTRL WI - MAYBE AROUND TWO
INCHES. THIS IS THE AREA PLAGUED MOST WITH UNCERTAINTY.

HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STRONGLY DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ISN/T MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW RATIO. THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW FOLLOWED BY A VERY RAPID RAMP UP OF THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WOULD PREFER
TO SEE 3 OR 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND...BUT IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO
HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO...PARTICULARLY IF IT
HAD JUST FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESERVATIONS WITH HOW FAR
EAST THE WARNING EXTENDS...WILL NOT CANCEL YET AND AWAIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW. THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
WOULD BE MEEKER...MCLEOD...SIBLEY...AND LE SUEUR.

THE WIND GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED 25-30 KT
AND 40+ KT GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH SOME
TEENS BELOW POSSIBLE IN WCTRL MN. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL DROP COLDER
THAN 25 BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MN...BUT WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT
HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARMING TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INITIAL COLD SHOT FOLLOWING TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 30
BELOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH EXTENSION OVER
NORTHEAST MN WILL DROP COLD POOL OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...BUT LIMITED THAT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
FOR NOW.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER WINDS BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.  READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHAT
VERIFIES FOR TUESDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO BRIEF COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS BUT
TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES THAT RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA IS DIFFICULT. CARRIED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO GREATEST THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE LATEST CFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES WERE SHOWING A WARMING TREND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  THIS VERIFIES THE
DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CIPS EXTENDED ANALOG THREAT
GUIDANCE TAKES US ALL THE WAY THROUGH MID MONTH...AND IS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOMENT...WE DID WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO SOME LOWER 50S FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA...EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW CONTINUES FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN...BUT SNOW IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN MN WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 14Z. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR 3-4 HOURS
BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM KDTL TO
KETG AND KATY. IT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS WRN AND SRN MN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES CONTINUING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.

KMSP...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 13Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
RANGE FOR A TIME...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR.SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ANTICIPATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ058-066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ057-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030947
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME OF THE FINE SCALE DETAILS
HAVE YET TO COME INTO COMPLETE FOCUS DUE TO SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THE HOURLY HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN IS INDEED FORMING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHEARING
VORTICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SECOND BAND IS SHOWING SOME
BEGINNING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAND
SHOULD ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE AREA IN BETWEEN...FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO AREAS OF FORCING BEGIN AND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FOR A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES THE SNOW EAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM SWRN/SCTRL MN TO WCTRL WI - MAYBE AROUND TWO
INCHES. THIS IS THE AREA PLAGUED MOST WITH UNCERTAINTY.

HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STRONGLY DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ISN/T MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW RATIO. THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW FOLLOWED BY A VERY RAPID RAMP UP OF THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WOULD PREFER
TO SEE 3 OR 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND...BUT IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO
HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO...PARTICULARLY IF IT
HAD JUST FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESERVATIONS WITH HOW FAR
EAST THE WARNING EXTENDS...WILL NOT CANCEL YET AND AWAIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW. THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
WOULD BE MEEKER...MCLEOD...SIBLEY...AND LE SUEUR.

THE WIND GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED 25-30 KT
AND 40+ KT GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH SOME
TEENS BELOW POSSIBLE IN WCTRL MN. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL DROP COLDER
THAN 25 BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MN...BUT WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT
HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARMING TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INITIAL COLD SHOT FOLLOWING TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 30
BELOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH EXTENSION OVER
NORTHEAST MN WILL DROP COLD POOL OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...BUT LIMITED THAT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
FOR NOW.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER WINDS BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.  READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHAT
VERIFIES FOR TUESDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO BRIEF COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS BUT
TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES THAT RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA IS DIFFICULT. CARRIED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO GREATEST THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE LATEST CFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES WERE SHOWING A WARMING TREND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  THIS VERIFIES THE
DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CIPS EXTENDED ANALOG THREAT
GUIDANCE TAKES US ALL THE WAY THROUGH MID MONTH...AND IS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOMENT...WE DID WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO SOME LOWER 50S FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA...EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WE`RE SLOWLY BUT SURELY STARTING TO SEE THE SNOW EXPAND AND EVEN
GETTING SOME GROUND TRUTH SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST
CENTRAL MN. HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SLOWED THE TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW
BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU.

KMSP...

WE EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH /DUSTING/...BUT
THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SNOW RATES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 0.5 INCH/PER AT THEIR HEAVIEST...SO
WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES WITH THIS EVENT
BEFORE THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
RAMPS UP. OVERALL...WE THINK THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN WHAT WE THAT AT THE TIME THE 18Z AND 00Z TAFS WERE ISSUES. WE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ058-066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ047-048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ057-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030947
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME OF THE FINE SCALE DETAILS
HAVE YET TO COME INTO COMPLETE FOCUS DUE TO SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THE HOURLY HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN IS INDEED FORMING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHEARING
VORTICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SECOND BAND IS SHOWING SOME
BEGINNING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAND
SHOULD ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE AREA IN BETWEEN...FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO AREAS OF FORCING BEGIN AND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FOR A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES THE SNOW EAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM SWRN/SCTRL MN TO WCTRL WI - MAYBE AROUND TWO
INCHES. THIS IS THE AREA PLAGUED MOST WITH UNCERTAINTY.

HOW MUCH FALLS WILL STRONGLY DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ISN/T MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW RATIO. THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW FOLLOWED BY A VERY RAPID RAMP UP OF THE POST
FRONTAL WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WOULD PREFER
TO SEE 3 OR 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND...BUT IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO
HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO...PARTICULARLY IF IT
HAD JUST FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESERVATIONS WITH HOW FAR
EAST THE WARNING EXTENDS...WILL NOT CANCEL YET AND AWAIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW. THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE DROPPED
WOULD BE MEEKER...MCLEOD...SIBLEY...AND LE SUEUR.

THE WIND GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED 25-30 KT
AND 40+ KT GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH SOME
TEENS BELOW POSSIBLE IN WCTRL MN. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL DROP COLDER
THAN 25 BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MN...BUT WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT
HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARMING TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INITIAL COLD SHOT FOLLOWING TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 30
BELOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH EXTENSION OVER
NORTHEAST MN WILL DROP COLD POOL OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...BUT LIMITED THAT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
FOR NOW.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER WINDS BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.  READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHAT
VERIFIES FOR TUESDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO BRIEF COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS BUT
TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES THAT RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA IS DIFFICULT. CARRIED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO GREATEST THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE LATEST CFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES WERE SHOWING A WARMING TREND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  THIS VERIFIES THE
DETERMINISTIC LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CIPS EXTENDED ANALOG THREAT
GUIDANCE TAKES US ALL THE WAY THROUGH MID MONTH...AND IS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOMENT...WE DID WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO SOME LOWER 50S FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA...EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WE`RE SLOWLY BUT SURELY STARTING TO SEE THE SNOW EXPAND AND EVEN
GETTING SOME GROUND TRUTH SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST
CENTRAL MN. HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SLOWED THE TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW
BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU.

KMSP...

WE EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH /DUSTING/...BUT
THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SNOW RATES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 0.5 INCH/PER AT THEIR HEAVIEST...SO
WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES WITH THIS EVENT
BEFORE THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
RAMPS UP. OVERALL...WE THINK THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN WHAT WE THAT AT THE TIME THE 18Z AND 00Z TAFS WERE ISSUES. WE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ058-066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ047-048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ057-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030516
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1116 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS INCREASING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH EVEN SOME ECHOES NOTED ON
RADAR. NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS
EVENING AS UPGLIDE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HIRES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING
AROUND THE TWIN CITIES BY 9 PM WITH THE AREA PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS OF
MN MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. WE ARE STILL
SEEING THE MAIN BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MADISON...APPLETON...MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...STAPLES AND LITTLE
FALLS AREAS ARE STILL WHERE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION (5 INCHES) IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
BECAUSE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON
TUESDAY...AMOUNTS DROP OFF TO 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM ST CLOUD THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE IOWA BORDER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE HELD FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY WERE THE ARW AND NMM
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE QPF THAT IS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST. HENCE...MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS IS TROUBLESOME IF IT
DOES COME TRUE FOR THE EXPECTED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER END OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE GOOD
CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE PATTERN OF THE
PRECIPITATION...KEPT THE SNOW AMOUNTS PRETTY MUCH AS WE HAVE HAD
THEM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS MOVING DOWN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. GFS BUFKIT PROFILE DATA STILL
SHOWS GUSTS REACHING THE 40 KNOT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
PROFILE IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE BLIZZARD
WARNING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

BEYOND TUESDAY...A VERY COLD PERIOD IS IN STORE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NOT TOO MANY CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH HOLDING STRONG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AFTER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. TWO SUBTLE SHRTWV/S WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHC OF
ANYTHING MEASURABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT AGAIN THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHEN OF THE WAA AND LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS CURRENTLY NE OF MPX CWA. BY NEXT MONDAY...SUBTLE HINTS OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MODIFY AND MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST/NE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEREFORE... A MORE ZONAL OR WSW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR OUR REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE EXTENDED
ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WARMER REGIME ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO
DEPENDENT ON A MUCH DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LATEST EC.
SO...AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE A MUCH ABV TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND
MORE OF A NORMAL FORECAST. EVEN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH
ARE NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR A HIGH IN THE TWIN CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WE`RE SLOWLY BUT SURELY STARTING TO SEE THE SNOW EXPAND AND EVEN
GETTING SOME GROUND TRUTH SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST
CENTRAL MN. HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SLOWED THE TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW
BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU.

KMSP...

WE EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH /DUSTING/...BUT
THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SNOW RATES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 0.5 INCH/PER AT THEIR HEAVIEST...SO
WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES WITH THIS EVENT
BEFORE THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
RAMPS UP. OVERALL...WE THINK THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN WHAT WE THAT AT THE TIME THE 18Z AND 00Z TAFS WERE ISSUES. WE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5 TO 10 KTS
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057-058-
     065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ045-
     051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030516
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1116 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS INCREASING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH EVEN SOME ECHOES NOTED ON
RADAR. NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS
EVENING AS UPGLIDE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HIRES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING
AROUND THE TWIN CITIES BY 9 PM WITH THE AREA PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS OF
MN MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. WE ARE STILL
SEEING THE MAIN BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MADISON...APPLETON...MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...STAPLES AND LITTLE
FALLS AREAS ARE STILL WHERE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION (5 INCHES) IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
BECAUSE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON
TUESDAY...AMOUNTS DROP OFF TO 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM ST CLOUD THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE IOWA BORDER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE HELD FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY WERE THE ARW AND NMM
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE QPF THAT IS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST. HENCE...MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS IS TROUBLESOME IF IT
DOES COME TRUE FOR THE EXPECTED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER END OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE GOOD
CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE PATTERN OF THE
PRECIPITATION...KEPT THE SNOW AMOUNTS PRETTY MUCH AS WE HAVE HAD
THEM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS MOVING DOWN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. GFS BUFKIT PROFILE DATA STILL
SHOWS GUSTS REACHING THE 40 KNOT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
PROFILE IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE BLIZZARD
WARNING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

BEYOND TUESDAY...A VERY COLD PERIOD IS IN STORE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NOT TOO MANY CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH HOLDING STRONG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AFTER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. TWO SUBTLE SHRTWV/S WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHC OF
ANYTHING MEASURABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT AGAIN THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHEN OF THE WAA AND LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS CURRENTLY NE OF MPX CWA. BY NEXT MONDAY...SUBTLE HINTS OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MODIFY AND MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST/NE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEREFORE... A MORE ZONAL OR WSW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR OUR REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE EXTENDED
ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WARMER REGIME ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO
DEPENDENT ON A MUCH DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LATEST EC.
SO...AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE A MUCH ABV TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND
MORE OF A NORMAL FORECAST. EVEN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH
ARE NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR A HIGH IN THE TWIN CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WE`RE SLOWLY BUT SURELY STARTING TO SEE THE SNOW EXPAND AND EVEN
GETTING SOME GROUND TRUTH SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST
CENTRAL MN. HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SLOWED THE TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW
BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU.

KMSP...

WE EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH /DUSTING/...BUT
THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SNOW RATES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 0.5 INCH/PER AT THEIR HEAVIEST...SO
WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES WITH THIS EVENT
BEFORE THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
RAMPS UP. OVERALL...WE THINK THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN WHAT WE THAT AT THE TIME THE 18Z AND 00Z TAFS WERE ISSUES. WE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5 TO 10 KTS
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057-058-
     065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ045-
     051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 030516
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1116 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS INCREASING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH EVEN SOME ECHOES NOTED ON
RADAR. NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS
EVENING AS UPGLIDE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HIRES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING
AROUND THE TWIN CITIES BY 9 PM WITH THE AREA PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS OF
MN MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. WE ARE STILL
SEEING THE MAIN BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MADISON...APPLETON...MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...STAPLES AND LITTLE
FALLS AREAS ARE STILL WHERE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION (5 INCHES) IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
BECAUSE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON
TUESDAY...AMOUNTS DROP OFF TO 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM ST CLOUD THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE IOWA BORDER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE HELD FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY WERE THE ARW AND NMM
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE QPF THAT IS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST. HENCE...MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS IS TROUBLESOME IF IT
DOES COME TRUE FOR THE EXPECTED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER END OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE GOOD
CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE PATTERN OF THE
PRECIPITATION...KEPT THE SNOW AMOUNTS PRETTY MUCH AS WE HAVE HAD
THEM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS MOVING DOWN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. GFS BUFKIT PROFILE DATA STILL
SHOWS GUSTS REACHING THE 40 KNOT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
PROFILE IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE BLIZZARD
WARNING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

BEYOND TUESDAY...A VERY COLD PERIOD IS IN STORE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NOT TOO MANY CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH HOLDING STRONG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AFTER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. TWO SUBTLE SHRTWV/S WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHC OF
ANYTHING MEASURABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT AGAIN THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHEN OF THE WAA AND LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS CURRENTLY NE OF MPX CWA. BY NEXT MONDAY...SUBTLE HINTS OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MODIFY AND MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST/NE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEREFORE... A MORE ZONAL OR WSW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR OUR REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE EXTENDED
ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WARMER REGIME ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO
DEPENDENT ON A MUCH DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LATEST EC.
SO...AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE A MUCH ABV TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND
MORE OF A NORMAL FORECAST. EVEN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH
ARE NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR A HIGH IN THE TWIN CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WE`RE SLOWLY BUT SURELY STARTING TO SEE THE SNOW EXPAND AND EVEN
GETTING SOME GROUND TRUTH SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST
CENTRAL MN. HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SLOWED THE TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW
BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU.

KMSP...

WE EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH /DUSTING/...BUT
THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SNOW RATES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 0.5 INCH/PER AT THEIR HEAVIEST...SO
WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES WITH THIS EVENT
BEFORE THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
RAMPS UP. OVERALL...WE THINK THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN WHAT WE THAT AT THE TIME THE 18Z AND 00Z TAFS WERE ISSUES. WE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5 TO 10 KTS
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057-058-
     065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ045-
     051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF





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