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000
FXUS63 KMPX 211741
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA
OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURING
THE DAY TODAY...THEN STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRADDLING THE BORDER OF MN AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE E ACROSS MN AND WI
DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TONIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DEEP RIDGING COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING STRATOCU DOWN OVER MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN WI...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS BARRON/RUSK/CHIPPEWA
COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA WHILE FAIR
WEATHER CU CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S FOR WESTERN WI. IN CONTRAST TO THIS...MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WESTERN MN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD BORDER. FOR TONIGHT...THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THE SPREAD IN LOWS TO CENTRAL-WESTERN MN
WILL BE QUITE LARGE AS WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
INFLUENCE OUT WEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN WESTERN MN WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PROMINENT CIRCULATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THIS
CIRCULATION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PRODUCE RAIN
ACROSS THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED THAT STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE GFS
MOVES THE ENERGY THROUGH THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER WITH THE EXPANSION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
SATURATION ACROSS THE FA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN 0.5".  OVERALL...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY...AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
WENT WARMER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER THE RIDGE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL INDICATE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM GIVES US OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY AT
PRECIP...MOST LIKELY AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MN. MOISTURE PROFILES FROM SEVERAL MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS AT KAXN...KSTC...AND KRWF. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT
AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PUT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS. LOOKING AHEAD...RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 211155
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA
OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURING
THE DAY TODAY...THEN STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRADDLING THE BORDER OF MN AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE E ACROSS MN AND WI
DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TONIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DEEP RIDGING COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING STRATOCU DOWN OVER MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN WI...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS BARRON/RUSK/CHIPPEWA
COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA WHILE FAIR
WEATHER CU CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S FOR WESTERN WI. IN CONTRAST TO THIS...MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WESTERN MN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD BORDER. FOR TONIGHT...THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THE SPREAD IN LOWS TO CENTRAL-WESTERN MN
WILL BE QUITE LARGE AS WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
INFLUENCE OUT WEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN WESTERN MN WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PROMINENT CIRCULATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THIS
CIRCULATION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PRODUCE RAIN
ACROSS THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED THAT STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE GFS
MOVES THE ENERGY THROUGH THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER WITH THE EXPANSION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
SATURATION ACROSS THE FA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN 0.5".  OVERALL...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY...AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
WENT WARMER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER THE RIDGE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL INDICATE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM GIVES US OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY AT
PRECIP...MOST LIKELY AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN WRN WI...AFFECTING MAINLY
KRNH...ALL SITES INITIALIZE AS VFR TDA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF
TO THE E...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO PICK UP AT ALL SITES. A TIGHTER
PRES GRADIENT OVER WRN MN WILL MAKE FOR STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AT
KAXN-KRWF-KSTC SITES...WITH LESSER SPEEDS GOING INTO ERN MN AND
WRN WI. SPEEDS EVENTUALLY ALL SETTLE DOWN TO SE ARND 10 KT THIS
EVE INTO EARLY WED MRNG. NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF FOR CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY SOME MIDLVL DISSIPATING STRATOCU OVER CENTRAL-WRN WI THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN THEN HIGH CI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS TNGT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. E WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO SE TDA
AND TO SSE BY TMRW MRNG WITH SPEEDS ARND 10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 211155
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA
OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURING
THE DAY TODAY...THEN STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRADDLING THE BORDER OF MN AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE E ACROSS MN AND WI
DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TONIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DEEP RIDGING COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING STRATOCU DOWN OVER MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN WI...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS BARRON/RUSK/CHIPPEWA
COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA WHILE FAIR
WEATHER CU CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S FOR WESTERN WI. IN CONTRAST TO THIS...MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WESTERN MN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD BORDER. FOR TONIGHT...THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THE SPREAD IN LOWS TO CENTRAL-WESTERN MN
WILL BE QUITE LARGE AS WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
INFLUENCE OUT WEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN WESTERN MN WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PROMINENT CIRCULATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THIS
CIRCULATION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PRODUCE RAIN
ACROSS THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED THAT STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE GFS
MOVES THE ENERGY THROUGH THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER WITH THE EXPANSION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
SATURATION ACROSS THE FA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN 0.5".  OVERALL...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY...AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
WENT WARMER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER THE RIDGE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL INDICATE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM GIVES US OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY AT
PRECIP...MOST LIKELY AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN WRN WI...AFFECTING MAINLY
KRNH...ALL SITES INITIALIZE AS VFR TDA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF
TO THE E...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO PICK UP AT ALL SITES. A TIGHTER
PRES GRADIENT OVER WRN MN WILL MAKE FOR STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AT
KAXN-KRWF-KSTC SITES...WITH LESSER SPEEDS GOING INTO ERN MN AND
WRN WI. SPEEDS EVENTUALLY ALL SETTLE DOWN TO SE ARND 10 KT THIS
EVE INTO EARLY WED MRNG. NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF FOR CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY SOME MIDLVL DISSIPATING STRATOCU OVER CENTRAL-WRN WI THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN THEN HIGH CI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS TNGT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. E WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO SE TDA
AND TO SSE BY TMRW MRNG WITH SPEEDS ARND 10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 211155
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA
OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURING
THE DAY TODAY...THEN STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRADDLING THE BORDER OF MN AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE E ACROSS MN AND WI
DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TONIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DEEP RIDGING COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING STRATOCU DOWN OVER MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN WI...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS BARRON/RUSK/CHIPPEWA
COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA WHILE FAIR
WEATHER CU CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S FOR WESTERN WI. IN CONTRAST TO THIS...MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WESTERN MN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD BORDER. FOR TONIGHT...THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THE SPREAD IN LOWS TO CENTRAL-WESTERN MN
WILL BE QUITE LARGE AS WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
INFLUENCE OUT WEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN WESTERN MN WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PROMINENT CIRCULATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THIS
CIRCULATION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PRODUCE RAIN
ACROSS THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED THAT STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE GFS
MOVES THE ENERGY THROUGH THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER WITH THE EXPANSION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
SATURATION ACROSS THE FA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN 0.5".  OVERALL...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY...AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
WENT WARMER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER THE RIDGE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL INDICATE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM GIVES US OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY AT
PRECIP...MOST LIKELY AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN WRN WI...AFFECTING MAINLY
KRNH...ALL SITES INITIALIZE AS VFR TDA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF
TO THE E...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO PICK UP AT ALL SITES. A TIGHTER
PRES GRADIENT OVER WRN MN WILL MAKE FOR STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AT
KAXN-KRWF-KSTC SITES...WITH LESSER SPEEDS GOING INTO ERN MN AND
WRN WI. SPEEDS EVENTUALLY ALL SETTLE DOWN TO SE ARND 10 KT THIS
EVE INTO EARLY WED MRNG. NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF FOR CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY SOME MIDLVL DISSIPATING STRATOCU OVER CENTRAL-WRN WI THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN THEN HIGH CI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS TNGT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. E WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO SE TDA
AND TO SSE BY TMRW MRNG WITH SPEEDS ARND 10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 211155
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA
OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURING
THE DAY TODAY...THEN STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRADDLING THE BORDER OF MN AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE E ACROSS MN AND WI
DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TONIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DEEP RIDGING COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING STRATOCU DOWN OVER MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN WI...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS BARRON/RUSK/CHIPPEWA
COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA WHILE FAIR
WEATHER CU CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S FOR WESTERN WI. IN CONTRAST TO THIS...MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WESTERN MN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD BORDER. FOR TONIGHT...THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THE SPREAD IN LOWS TO CENTRAL-WESTERN MN
WILL BE QUITE LARGE AS WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
INFLUENCE OUT WEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN WESTERN MN WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PROMINENT CIRCULATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THIS
CIRCULATION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PRODUCE RAIN
ACROSS THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED THAT STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE GFS
MOVES THE ENERGY THROUGH THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER WITH THE EXPANSION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
SATURATION ACROSS THE FA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN 0.5".  OVERALL...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY...AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
WENT WARMER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER THE RIDGE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL INDICATE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM GIVES US OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY AT
PRECIP...MOST LIKELY AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN WRN WI...AFFECTING MAINLY
KRNH...ALL SITES INITIALIZE AS VFR TDA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF
TO THE E...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO PICK UP AT ALL SITES. A TIGHTER
PRES GRADIENT OVER WRN MN WILL MAKE FOR STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AT
KAXN-KRWF-KSTC SITES...WITH LESSER SPEEDS GOING INTO ERN MN AND
WRN WI. SPEEDS EVENTUALLY ALL SETTLE DOWN TO SE ARND 10 KT THIS
EVE INTO EARLY WED MRNG. NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF FOR CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY SOME MIDLVL DISSIPATING STRATOCU OVER CENTRAL-WRN WI THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN THEN HIGH CI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS TNGT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. E WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO SE TDA
AND TO SSE BY TMRW MRNG WITH SPEEDS ARND 10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 210853
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN STALL OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
STRADDLING THE BORDER OF MN AND WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE E ACROSS MN AND WI DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALSO
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS DEEP
RIDGING COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING STRATOCU DOWN OVER MAINLY EASTERN AND NORTHERN
WI...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS BARRON/RUSK/CHIPPEWA COUNTIES IN WESTERN
WI. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA WHILE FAIR WEATHER CU CLOUDS
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INTO CENTRAL MN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
FOR WESTERN WI. IN CONTRAST TO THIS...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WESTERN MN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD BORDER. FOR TONIGHT...THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THE SPREAD IN LOWS TO CENTRAL-WESTERN MN
WILL BE QUITE LARGE AS WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
INFLUENCE OUT WEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN WESTERN MN WILL ONLY DROP TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PROMINENT CIRCULATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THIS
CIRCULATION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PRODUCE RAIN
ACROSS THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED THAT STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE GFS
MOVES THE ENERGY THROUGH THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER WITH THE EXPANSION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
SATURATION ACROSS THE FA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN 0.5".  OVERALL...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY...AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
WENT WARMER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER THE RIDGE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL INDICATE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM GIVES US OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY AT
PRECIP...MOST LIKELY AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MN WILL WORK EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SE WINDS AT 15G25KTS
FOR KAXN AND KRWF FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SE WINDS ON TUESDAY FROM 8-12 KNOTS.
A CONCERN REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VFR
CEILINGS NEAR KEAU WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THE MVFR AS EACH SUBSEQUENT UPDATE TO THE LAMP PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO BACK AWAY ON THE CEILINGS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
MORNING AND SE 10 KTS DURING THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 210349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MN WILL WORK EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SE WINDS AT 15G25KTS
FOR KAXN AND KRWF FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SE WINDS ON TUESDAY FROM 8-12 KNOTS.
A CONCERN REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VFR
CEILINGS NEAR KEAU WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THE MVFR AS EACH SUBSEQUENT UPDATE TO THE LAMP PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO BACK AWAY ON THE CEILINGS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
MORNING AND SE 10 KTS DURING THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 210349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MN WILL WORK EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SE WINDS AT 15G25KTS
FOR KAXN AND KRWF FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SE WINDS ON TUESDAY FROM 8-12 KNOTS.
A CONCERN REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VFR
CEILINGS NEAR KEAU WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THE MVFR AS EACH SUBSEQUENT UPDATE TO THE LAMP PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO BACK AWAY ON THE CEILINGS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
MORNING AND SE 10 KTS DURING THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 210349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MN WILL WORK EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SE WINDS AT 15G25KTS
FOR KAXN AND KRWF FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SE WINDS ON TUESDAY FROM 8-12 KNOTS.
A CONCERN REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VFR
CEILINGS NEAR KEAU WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THE MVFR AS EACH SUBSEQUENT UPDATE TO THE LAMP PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO BACK AWAY ON THE CEILINGS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
MORNING AND SE 10 KTS DURING THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 210349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MN WILL WORK EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SE WINDS AT 15G25KTS
FOR KAXN AND KRWF FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SE WINDS ON TUESDAY FROM 8-12 KNOTS.
A CONCERN REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VFR
CEILINGS NEAR KEAU WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THE MVFR AS EACH SUBSEQUENT UPDATE TO THE LAMP PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO BACK AWAY ON THE CEILINGS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
MORNING AND SE 10 KTS DURING THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 202345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FEW CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE VFR CEILINGS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF KRNH AND KEAU. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERAL EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH KEAU BEING IMPACTED.
ON TUESDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS (15 KTS) WILL BE FROM KAXN
THROUGH KRWF. GUSTS IN THESE AREA WILL REACH 22-25 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WIND THIS EVENING
VEERING EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10-12
KNOTS FOR LATE TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 202345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FEW CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE VFR CEILINGS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF KRNH AND KEAU. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERAL EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH KEAU BEING IMPACTED.
ON TUESDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS (15 KTS) WILL BE FROM KAXN
THROUGH KRWF. GUSTS IN THESE AREA WILL REACH 22-25 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WIND THIS EVENING
VEERING EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10-12
KNOTS FOR LATE TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 202047
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ONLY CONCERN FOR CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE KEAU AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF WILL
NUDGE MIDLVL STRATOCU SWD OVER FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI. KEAU MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME MIDLVL CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...OTHERWISE
COVERAGE WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCT FOR KSTC-KMSP-KRNH...WITH BOTH
KAXN-KRWF TOO FAR DISPLACED FROM THIS CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP
THEM SKC AT INITIALIZATION. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING INTO TNGT AS DEEP HIGH PRES ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT ALL SITES TO LGT/VRBL FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...THEN PICK UP FROM THE E-SE JUST BEFORE DAWN.
SPEEDS THEN INCRS TO 8-15 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOR PRECIP XPCTD THIS TAF SET.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO VSBY/CEILING/PRECIP PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. NNW WINDS THRU THIS AFTN DROP OFF THIS EVE TO
LGT/VRBL...SWINGING ARND TO THE E. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE
TMRW MRNG AND INCRS IN SPEED AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW TO 5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 202047
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ONLY CONCERN FOR CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE KEAU AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF WILL
NUDGE MIDLVL STRATOCU SWD OVER FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI. KEAU MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME MIDLVL CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...OTHERWISE
COVERAGE WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCT FOR KSTC-KMSP-KRNH...WITH BOTH
KAXN-KRWF TOO FAR DISPLACED FROM THIS CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP
THEM SKC AT INITIALIZATION. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING INTO TNGT AS DEEP HIGH PRES ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT ALL SITES TO LGT/VRBL FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...THEN PICK UP FROM THE E-SE JUST BEFORE DAWN.
SPEEDS THEN INCRS TO 8-15 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOR PRECIP XPCTD THIS TAF SET.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO VSBY/CEILING/PRECIP PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. NNW WINDS THRU THIS AFTN DROP OFF THIS EVE TO
LGT/VRBL...SWINGING ARND TO THE E. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE
TMRW MRNG AND INCRS IN SPEED AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW TO 5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 201705
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES
EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A DECENT SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ONLY CONCERN FOR CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE KEAU AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF WILL
NUDGE MIDLVL STRATOCU SWD OVER FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI. KEAU MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME MIDLVL CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...OTHERWISE
COVERAGE WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCT FOR KSTC-KMSP-KRNH...WITH BOTH
KAXN-KRWF TOO FAR DISPLACED FROM THIS CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP
THEM SKC AT INITIALIZATION. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING INTO TNGT AS DEEP HIGH PRES ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT ALL SITES TO LGT/VRBL FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...THEN PICK UP FROM THE E-SE JUST BEFORE DAWN.
SPEEDS THEN INCRS TO 8-15 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOR PRECIP XPCTD THIS TAF SET.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO VSBY/CEILING/PRECIP PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. NNW WINDS THRU THIS AFTN DROP OFF THIS EVE TO
LGT/VRBL...SWINGING ARND TO THE E. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE
TMRW MRNG AND INCRS IN SPEED AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW TO 5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201705
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES
EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A DECENT SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ONLY CONCERN FOR CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE KEAU AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF WILL
NUDGE MIDLVL STRATOCU SWD OVER FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI. KEAU MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME MIDLVL CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...OTHERWISE
COVERAGE WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCT FOR KSTC-KMSP-KRNH...WITH BOTH
KAXN-KRWF TOO FAR DISPLACED FROM THIS CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP
THEM SKC AT INITIALIZATION. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING INTO TNGT AS DEEP HIGH PRES ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT ALL SITES TO LGT/VRBL FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...THEN PICK UP FROM THE E-SE JUST BEFORE DAWN.
SPEEDS THEN INCRS TO 8-15 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOR PRECIP XPCTD THIS TAF SET.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO VSBY/CEILING/PRECIP PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. NNW WINDS THRU THIS AFTN DROP OFF THIS EVE TO
LGT/VRBL...SWINGING ARND TO THE E. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE
TMRW MRNG AND INCRS IN SPEED AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW TO 5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 201141
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WE STARTED LAST NIGHT ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER YESTERDAY BROUGHT 70S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAVE COOLED THE
ATMOSPHERE NICELY THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF. THE COLDEST 925-850MB AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. WE THINK THIS
AIR MASS AND WHAT WILL LIKELY END UP BEING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATO-CU DECK WILL KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. MINNESOTA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
COLDEST AIR AND SHOULD STILL MANAGE 60S TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WISCONSIN. NOT MUCH ELSE TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM.
WE EXPECT COOL TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO BUILDING PRESSURE AND HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A DECK OF 2500-5000FT CLOUDS IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI THIS
MORNING. WE THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE INTO KRNH AND KEAU...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TODAY TO LIFT THE CEILINGS SLIGHTLY
FROM WHERE THEY AIR NOW...WHICH IS SHOWING A LOT OF MVFR.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. NO
AVIATION WEATHER CENCERNS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 201141
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WE STARTED LAST NIGHT ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER YESTERDAY BROUGHT 70S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAVE COOLED THE
ATMOSPHERE NICELY THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF. THE COLDEST 925-850MB AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. WE THINK THIS
AIR MASS AND WHAT WILL LIKELY END UP BEING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATO-CU DECK WILL KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. MINNESOTA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
COLDEST AIR AND SHOULD STILL MANAGE 60S TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WISCONSIN. NOT MUCH ELSE TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM.
WE EXPECT COOL TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO BUILDING PRESSURE AND HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A DECK OF 2500-5000FT CLOUDS IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI THIS
MORNING. WE THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE INTO KRNH AND KEAU...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TODAY TO LIFT THE CEILINGS SLIGHTLY
FROM WHERE THEY AIR NOW...WHICH IS SHOWING A LOT OF MVFR.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. NO
AVIATION WEATHER CENCERNS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 200917
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WE STARTED LAST NIGHT ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER YESTERDAY BROUGHT 70S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAVE COOLED THE
ATMOSPHERE NICELY THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF. THE COLDEST 925-850MB AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. WE THINK THIS
AIR MASS AND WHAT WILL LIKELY END UP BEING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATO-CU DECK WILL KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. MINNESOTA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
COLDEST AIR AND SHOULD STILL MANAGE 60S TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WISCONSIN. NOT MUCH ELSE TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM.
WE EXPECT COOL TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO BUILDING PRESSURE AND HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200917
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WE STARTED LAST NIGHT ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER YESTERDAY BROUGHT 70S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAVE COOLED THE
ATMOSPHERE NICELY THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF. THE COLDEST 925-850MB AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. WE THINK THIS
AIR MASS AND WHAT WILL LIKELY END UP BEING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATO-CU DECK WILL KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. MINNESOTA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
COLDEST AIR AND SHOULD STILL MANAGE 60S TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WISCONSIN. NOT MUCH ELSE TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM.
WE EXPECT COOL TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO BUILDING PRESSURE AND HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 200339
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 200339
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE ADDED ITS MENTION TO THE 20/00Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 200003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE ADDED ITS MENTION TO THE 20/00Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE ADDED ITS MENTION TO THE 20/00Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 192057
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KMPX 192057
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 191638
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191638
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 191125
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER BY
SUNRISE - NEARING THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE LUNCH HOUR AND PUSHING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING. BREEZY
W-SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS BRIEF WARM-UP. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF A
HIGH-BASED STRATUS DECK IN NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI BEFORE THE
NOON HOUR...BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OUT THERE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

KMSP...

SLOWLY VEERING WINDS THIS MORNING...WE EXPECT THE DIRECTION TO BE
CLOSER TO S-SW BY MID MORNING. ONLY PASSING CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA. WINDS S 10G20KTS.
THU...VFR. CHANCE OF -RA. WINDS S-SE 5-10KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF










000
FXUS63 KMPX 190900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER BY
SUNRISE - NEARING THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE LUNCH HOUR AND PUSHING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING. BREEZY
W-SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS BRIEF WARM-UP. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF A
HIGH-BASED STRATUS DECK IN NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI BEFORE THE
NOON HOUR...BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER BY
SUNRISE - NEARING THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE LUNCH HOUR AND PUSHING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING. BREEZY
W-SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS BRIEF WARM-UP. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF A
HIGH-BASED STRATUS DECK IN NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI BEFORE THE
NOON HOUR...BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 190535
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 190535
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 182331
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND VEER TO THE SW
AND W DURING THIS PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
FEW GUSTS FROM 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE
TO 5-10 KT BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182331
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND VEER TO THE SW
AND W DURING THIS PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
FEW GUSTS FROM 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE
TO 5-10 KT BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB










000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB










000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB









000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB









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