Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMPX 242049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KMPX 242049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241737
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241737
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KMPX 241232
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE..FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TODAY...PARTICULARLY KEAU AND KRNH.
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT EAST CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI SITES AS MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER IS LOST. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW-END MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY...SCATTERING OUT THIS EVE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVE AS WELL.

KMSP...
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO START THE PERIOD...SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES BY 15Z. VFR CIGS RETURN
AROUND 05Z TUES...WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW 10KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 241232
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE..FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TODAY...PARTICULARLY KEAU AND KRNH.
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT EAST CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI SITES AS MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER IS LOST. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW-END MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY...SCATTERING OUT THIS EVE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVE AS WELL.

KMSP...
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO START THE PERIOD...SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES BY 15Z. VFR CIGS RETURN
AROUND 05Z TUES...WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW 10KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 241021
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 241021
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF










000
FXUS63 KMPX 240606 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     047>051-054>059-064>067-073>075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240606 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     047>051-054>059-064>067-073>075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 240024 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS MN. A BAND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL TURN
TO SNOW BY MID EVENING AND SHIFT EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN OVER MN UNDER THIS
BAND...BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER WINDS...SHOULD GREATLY
IMPROVE CONDITIONS ACROSS WI AS FOG DISSIPATES. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS.

KMSP...RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 02Z...TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 04Z
AND END AROUND 06Z OR 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 02Z WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240024 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS MN. A BAND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL TURN
TO SNOW BY MID EVENING AND SHIFT EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN OVER MN UNDER THIS
BAND...BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER WINDS...SHOULD GREATLY
IMPROVE CONDITIONS ACROSS WI AS FOG DISSIPATES. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS.

KMSP...RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 02Z...TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 04Z
AND END AROUND 06Z OR 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 02Z WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 232142
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS /AND LOWEST CIGS AND VSBYS/
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MN SITES. A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER WI SITES/PRIMARILY KEAU/ WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET...WITH KMSP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW/PRECIP.

KMSP...
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-6SM WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON THE TIMING FOR VFR CIGS...IF ANYTHING
EXPECT THE TAF IS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN GOING TO VFR BY 14Z. FROPA
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
21Z...AND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S DEVELOPING THIS EVE AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUB-1800 FT CIGS RETURNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 232142
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS /AND LOWEST CIGS AND VSBYS/
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MN SITES. A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER WI SITES/PRIMARILY KEAU/ WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET...WITH KMSP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW/PRECIP.

KMSP...
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-6SM WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON THE TIMING FOR VFR CIGS...IF ANYTHING
EXPECT THE TAF IS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN GOING TO VFR BY 14Z. FROPA
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
21Z...AND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S DEVELOPING THIS EVE AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUB-1800 FT CIGS RETURNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS









000
FXUS63 KMPX 231745
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

JUST EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 THROUGH
00Z. AT THE MOMENT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS MORE OR LESS DOWN
I-35...FOG EAST OF IT AND MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS AND A BAND OF
DEFORMATION RAIN TO THE WEST. A QUICK TOURS OF WEBCAMS ACROSS THE
CITIES SHOWS QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT IN CONDITIONS...WITH
494 GOING FROM 1/4SM VISIBILITY AT MN-5 TO JUST HAZY CONDITIONS AT
MN-77 ALONG I-94 WE ARE SEEING THE SAME THING...WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES IN MINNEAPOLIS...BUT DENSE FOG IN ST. PAUL...WITH
MN-280 ACTING AS THE DELINEATION LINE AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE HRRR SHOWING LOW VISBYS REMAINING ACROSS WRN WI THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVY THROUGH THEN. WE WILL
REASSESS THE ADVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO PROBABLY KNOCK OF A FEW
OF THE COUNTIES ON THE WEST SIDE AND DECIDE IF WE NEED TO GO ANY
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OF THE FAR ERN MPX CWA COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT/S BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
UNTIL THEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE
MINIMIZING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AIR IN RELATION TO THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED
A BIT GIVEN THE AFFECTS THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD THAN
NORMAL CONDS CONTINUING WITH SMALL CHC/S OF SNOW.

OVERALL...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N/NW THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY 50H MEAN /GFS/GEM/EC/ IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
PARKED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY THRU THIS WEEK. THE BIGGEST CHG IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEK
OF DECEMBER 1ST. TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH
SOME MODIFICATIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WHERE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW/SC MN MONDAY WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING
EXPECTED. PLUS WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS HAS ALLOWED A
CREST TO FORM ON THE SNOW COVER...LIMITING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.

FOR PRECIPITATION RELATED CHGS NEXT WEEK...A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED. THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED...SO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE STRONGER JET STREAK AND SFC LOW LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS /AND LOWEST CIGS AND VSYS/
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MN SITES. A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
REAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER WI SITES/PRIMARILY KEAU/ WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET...WITH KMSP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW/PRECIP.

KMSP...
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-6SM WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON THE TIMING FOR VFR CIGS...IF ANYTHING
EXPECT THE TAF IS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN GOING TO VFR BY 14Z. FROPA
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
21Z...AND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S DEVELOPING THIS EVE AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUB-1800 FT CIGS RETURING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ053-
     061>063.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023-025-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 231245
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
645 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT/S BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
UNTIL THEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE
MINIMIZING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AIR IN RELATION TO THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED
A BIT GIVEN THE AFFECTS THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD THAN
NORMAL CONDS CONTINUING WITH SMALL CHC/S OF SNOW.

OVERALL...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N/NW THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY 50H MEAN /GFS/GEM/EC/ IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
PARKED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY THRU THIS WEEK. THE BIGGEST CHG IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEK
OF DECEMBER 1ST. TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH
SOME MODIFICATIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WHERE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW/SC MN MONDAY WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING
EXPECTED. PLUS WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS HAS ALLOWED A
CREST TO FORM ON THE SNOW COVER...LIMITING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.

FOR PRECIPITATION RELATED CHGS NEXT WEEK...A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED. THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED...SO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE STRONGER JET STREAK AND SFC LOW LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS /AND LOWEST CIGS AND VSYS/
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MN SITES. A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
REAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER WI SITES/PRIMARILY KEAU/ WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET...WITH KMSP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW/PRECIP.

KMSP...
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-6SM WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON THE TIMING FOR VFR CIGS...IF ANYTHING
EXPECT THE TAF IS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN GOING TO VFR BY 14Z. FROPA
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
21Z...AND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S DEVELOPING THIS EVE AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUB-1800 FT CIGS RETURING.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-
     053.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-025-
     027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 231245
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
645 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT/S BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
UNTIL THEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE
MINIMIZING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AIR IN RELATION TO THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED
A BIT GIVEN THE AFFECTS THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD THAN
NORMAL CONDS CONTINUING WITH SMALL CHC/S OF SNOW.

OVERALL...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N/NW THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY 50H MEAN /GFS/GEM/EC/ IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
PARKED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY THRU THIS WEEK. THE BIGGEST CHG IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEK
OF DECEMBER 1ST. TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH
SOME MODIFICATIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WHERE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW/SC MN MONDAY WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING
EXPECTED. PLUS WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS HAS ALLOWED A
CREST TO FORM ON THE SNOW COVER...LIMITING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.

FOR PRECIPITATION RELATED CHGS NEXT WEEK...A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED. THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED...SO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE STRONGER JET STREAK AND SFC LOW LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS /AND LOWEST CIGS AND VSYS/
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MN SITES. A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
REAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER WI SITES/PRIMARILY KEAU/ WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET...WITH KMSP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW/PRECIP.

KMSP...
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-6SM WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON THE TIMING FOR VFR CIGS...IF ANYTHING
EXPECT THE TAF IS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN GOING TO VFR BY 14Z. FROPA
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
21Z...AND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S DEVELOPING THIS EVE AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUB-1800 FT CIGS RETURING.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-
     053.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-025-
     027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS








000
FXUS63 KMPX 231001
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT/S BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
UNTIL THEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE
MINIMIZING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AIR IN RELATION TO THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED
A BIT GIVEN THE AFFECTS THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD THAN
NORMAL CONDS CONTINUING WITH SMALL CHC/S OF SNOW.

OVERALL...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N/NW THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY 50H MEAN /GFS/GEM/EC/ IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
PARKED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY THRU THIS WEEK. THE BIGGEST CHG IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEK
OF DECEMBER 1ST. TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH
SOME MODIFICATIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WHERE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW/SC MN MONDAY WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING
EXPECTED. PLUS WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS HAS ALLOWED A
CREST TO FORM ON THE SNOW COVER...LIMITING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.

FOR PRECIPITATION RELATED CHGS NEXT WEEK...A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED. THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED...SO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE STRONGER JET STREAK AND SFC LOW LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT HAS MARCHED WELL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE SOUTH OF
IT...IN SOME CASES TO MVFR OR VFR. THINK ALL THE TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT IF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH...BUT CAUTION IS ADVISED AS CONDITIONS ARE DETEIORATING
SLOWLY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THIS MOISTURE COULD KEEP CIGS
IN LONGER ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI. RWF AND AXN APPEAR TO BE IN
THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR GREATEST IMPROVMENTS WITH UPSTREAM OBS VFR.
RAIN WILL PUSH INTO WRN WI SYUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS MSP.

KMSP...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...BUT THAT TREND MAY HAVE STALLED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
COULD SEE VIS AND CIGS FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SURROUNDING OBS INDICATE. CONDS SHOULD LARGELY BE
MVFR...HOWEVER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-
     053.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-025-
     027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 231001
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT/S BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
UNTIL THEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE
MINIMIZING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AIR IN RELATION TO THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED
A BIT GIVEN THE AFFECTS THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD THAN
NORMAL CONDS CONTINUING WITH SMALL CHC/S OF SNOW.

OVERALL...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N/NW THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY 50H MEAN /GFS/GEM/EC/ IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
PARKED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY THRU THIS WEEK. THE BIGGEST CHG IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEK
OF DECEMBER 1ST. TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH
SOME MODIFICATIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WHERE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW/SC MN MONDAY WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING
EXPECTED. PLUS WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS HAS ALLOWED A
CREST TO FORM ON THE SNOW COVER...LIMITING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.

FOR PRECIPITATION RELATED CHGS NEXT WEEK...A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED. THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED...SO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE STRONGER JET STREAK AND SFC LOW LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT HAS MARCHED WELL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE SOUTH OF
IT...IN SOME CASES TO MVFR OR VFR. THINK ALL THE TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT IF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH...BUT CAUTION IS ADVISED AS CONDITIONS ARE DETEIORATING
SLOWLY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THIS MOISTURE COULD KEEP CIGS
IN LONGER ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI. RWF AND AXN APPEAR TO BE IN
THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR GREATEST IMPROVMENTS WITH UPSTREAM OBS VFR.
RAIN WILL PUSH INTO WRN WI SYUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS MSP.

KMSP...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...BUT THAT TREND MAY HAVE STALLED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
COULD SEE VIS AND CIGS FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SURROUNDING OBS INDICATE. CONDS SHOULD LARGELY BE
MVFR...HOWEVER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-
     053.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-025-
     027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230611 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1211 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TREND OF STRATUS
AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING PRETTY UNDERWHELMING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MPX AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GOING ACROSS ERN WI AND
MICHIGAN.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE MPX CWA HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALL DAY. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES HEADING OUR WAY. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO NRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPS IN THE 40S AND MORE
CONCERNING FOR THE CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES. THE SECOND
MOISTURE SURGE IS JUST NOW GETTING TO I-80 AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEWPS IN THE 50S...AND A RETURN TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THE
ECMWF/GEM SHOW THIS SECOND MOISTURE SURGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER
50 DEWPS GETTING CLEAR UP TO I-90 SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CERTAINLY DEWPS IN THE 40S WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND FAVORS STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CERTAINLY READS THAT WAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE WATCH HOW THAT
CLEARING EVOLVES.

FOR FOG...ONE THING WE ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IS IT WILL BE HAZY TROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN DEWPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE
WAS TALK OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON WHERE
TO PUT ONE OTHER THAN ANYONE UNDER STRATUS NOW...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT
OUR ENTIRE CWA AND DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE SUCH A LARGE ADVY AT THIS
POINT. ON TOP OF THAT...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING 8-12 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SO THAT WILL SUPPLY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL.
NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THAT CLEARING RACING NORTH OUT OF IA. AT THIS
POINT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS WHERE OUR DEEPEST SNOW
RESIDES ACROSS THE NRN MPX CWA. THE HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
IT DOES SHOW VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN AS THAT
SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS IA WORKS INTO MN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY MAY GO NOTHING BUT UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRST RUN OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TOOL WITH THE LOCAL SUPERBLEND
BROUGHT A TEMPERATURE OF 53 TO ALBERT LEA BY 7Z TONIGHT. DID NOT GO
QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT DO THINK MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF A NEW
ULM TO MORA LINE WILL RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MILD
START...ALSO GAVE HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT OF AN UPWARD NUDGE TO ABOUT A
50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 22.12 GEM/ECMWF.
THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR SE MN/WRN WI TOMORROW.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET THAT
HIGH...BUT DO HAVE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR ALL BUT WRN AND
CENTRAL MN.

FOR PRECIP...THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERWHELMING. OUR BIGGEST
PROBLEM THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FACT THAT THE ATMO CAN
NOT TAKE ON MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB...BUT ABOVE THAT...ITS
BONE DRY. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY OUT IN ERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT LIKING
THE IDEA THE GFS/SREF/NMM/ARW SHOW OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN CENTERED
ON FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER COMING OUT OF SODAK TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 22.18 HOPWRF MEMBERS ALSO
SHOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP BY 9Z /THE END OF THOSE RUNS/ MOVING INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW. DID BOOST POPS IN SW MN INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THIS MAY VERY WILL END UP
BEING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF OUR MN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A
DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN WEST CENTRAL WI.

BY 00Z MONDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF 120-150M 500MB 12-HR
HEIGHTS FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING IS
STILL QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH 12Z SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES TO
FOLLOW. THE 22.12Z GFS IS BY FAR AND AWAY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY
06Z MONDAY TO 975MB...969MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z...AND
966MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z. THE NAM AND
ECMWF SEEM MORE REASONABLE WITH A BIT MORE MODEST DEEPENING.
TYPICALLY...THE KIND OF DEEPENING THE GFS IS SHOWING ONLY OCCURS
WITH VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND/OR A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH. WE REALLY DON`T HAVE EITHER. THERE IS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THEY SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
THAT ARE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND NOT AS WOUND UP.
THEREFORE...WE DID NOT JUMP ON THE GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WOULD GIVE 6-8" TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE GFS INDICATES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 22.15Z SREF AND GEM ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BUT WE SIMPLY DIDN`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...THE WARM TODAY HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE WERE A
LOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN MN TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 1-4" OF SNOW...IMPRESSIVE COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 22.12Z ECMWF HAS SUSTAINED 25-30KTS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MUCH
LESS LIFT. THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH LOCKS IN OUR CHANCE
FOR A WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING. IT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT HAS MARCHED WELL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE SOUTH OF
IT...IN SOME CASES TO MVFR OR VFR. THINK ALL THE TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT IF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH...BUT CAUTION IS ADVISED AS CONDITIONS ARE DETEIORATING
SLOWLY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THIS MOISTURE COULD KEEP CIGS
IN LONGER ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI. RWF AND AXN APPEAR TO BE IN
THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR GREATEST IMPROVMENTS WITH UPSTREAM OBS VFR.
RAIN WILL PUSH INTO WRN WI SYUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS MSP.

KMSP...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...BUT THAT TREND MAY HAVE STALLED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
COULD SEE VIS AND CIGS FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SURROUNDING OBS INDICATE. CONDS SHOULD LARGELY BE
MVFR...HOWEVER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>053-057>063-066-068>070-078.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF










000
FXUS63 KMPX 230028 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TREND OF STRATUS
AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING PRETTY UNDERWHELMING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MPX AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GOING ACROSS ERN WI AND
MICHIGAN.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE MPX CWA HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALL DAY. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES HEADING OUR WAY. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO NRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPS IN THE 40S AND MORE
CONCERNING FOR THE CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES. THE SECOND
MOISTURE SURGE IS JUST NOW GETTING TO I-80 AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEWPS IN THE 50S...AND A RETURN TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THE
ECMWF/GEM SHOW THIS SECOND MOISTURE SURGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER
50 DEWPS GETTING CLEAR UP TO I-90 SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CERTAINLY DEWPS IN THE 40S WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND FAVORS STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CERTAINLY READS THAT WAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE WATCH HOW THAT
CLEARING EVOLVES.

FOR FOG...ONE THING WE ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IS IT WILL BE HAZY TROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN DEWPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE
WAS TALK OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON WHERE
TO PUT ONE OTHER THAN ANYONE UNDER STRATUS NOW...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT
OUR ENTIRE CWA AND DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE SUCH A LARGE ADVY AT THIS
POINT. ON TOP OF THAT...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING 8-12 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SO THAT WILL SUPPLY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL.
NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THAT CLEARING RACING NORTH OUT OF IA. AT THIS
POINT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS WHERE OUR DEEPEST SNOW
RESIDES ACROSS THE NRN MPX CWA. THE HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
IT DOES SHOW VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN AS THAT
SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS IA WORKS INTO MN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY MAY GO NOTHING BUT UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRST RUN OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TOOL WITH THE LOCAL SUPERBLEND
BROUGHT A TEMPERATURE OF 53 TO ALBERT LEA BY 7Z TONIGHT. DID NOT GO
QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT DO THINK MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF A NEW
ULM TO MORA LINE WILL RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MILD
START...ALSO GAVE HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT OF AN UPWARD NUDGE TO ABOUT A
50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 22.12 GEM/ECMWF.
THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR SE MN/WRN WI TOMORROW.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET THAT
HIGH...BUT DO HAVE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR ALL BUT WRN AND
CENTRAL MN.

FOR PRECIP...THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERWHELMING. OUR BIGGEST
PROBLEM THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FACT THAT THE ATMO CAN
NOT TAKE ON MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB...BUT ABOVE THAT...ITS
BONE DRY. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY OUT IN ERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT LIKING
THE IDEA THE GFS/SREF/NMM/ARW SHOW OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN CENTERED
ON FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER COMING OUT OF SODAK TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 22.18 HOPWRF MEMBERS ALSO
SHOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP BY 9Z /THE END OF THOSE RUNS/ MOVING INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW. DID BOOST POPS IN SW MN INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THIS MAY VERY WILL END UP
BEING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF OUR MN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A
DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN WEST CENTRAL WI.

BY 00Z MONDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF 120-150M 500MB 12-HR
HEIGHTS FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING IS
STILL QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH 12Z SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES TO
FOLLOW. THE 22.12Z GFS IS BY FAR AND AWAY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY
06Z MONDAY TO 975MB...969MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z...AND
966MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z. THE NAM AND
ECMWF SEEM MORE REASONABLE WITH A BIT MORE MODEST DEEPENING.
TYPICALLY...THE KIND OF DEEPENING THE GFS IS SHOWING ONLY OCCURS
WITH VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND/OR A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH. WE REALLY DON`T HAVE EITHER. THERE IS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THEY SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
THAT ARE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND NOT AS WOUND UP.
THEREFORE...WE DID NOT JUMP ON THE GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WOULD GIVE 6-8" TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE GFS INDICATES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 22.15Z SREF AND GEM ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BUT WE SIMPLY DIDN`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...THE WARM TODAY HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE WERE A
LOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN MN TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 1-4" OF SNOW...IMPRESSIVE COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 22.12Z ECMWF HAS SUSTAINED 25-30KTS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MUCH
LESS LIFT. THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH LOCKS IN OUR CHANCE
FOR A WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING. IT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER CENTRAL IOWA/SOUTHWESTERN MN AND
THAT DRIER AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE REST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS DRIER AIR
PROGRESSION STALLING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SO CONTINUED A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
MSP...STC...RNH...AND EAU THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SUCH DRIER
AIR HAS ALREADY REACHED RWF WHERE CIGS HAVE DISAPPEARED...AND MAY
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT AXN LATE TONIGHT.

KMSP...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
INSTANCES OF LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER CONDITIONS WILL REACH SO MAINTAINED A
SIMILAR STORY FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230028 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TREND OF STRATUS
AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING PRETTY UNDERWHELMING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MPX AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GOING ACROSS ERN WI AND
MICHIGAN.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE MPX CWA HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALL DAY. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES HEADING OUR WAY. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO NRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPS IN THE 40S AND MORE
CONCERNING FOR THE CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES. THE SECOND
MOISTURE SURGE IS JUST NOW GETTING TO I-80 AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEWPS IN THE 50S...AND A RETURN TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THE
ECMWF/GEM SHOW THIS SECOND MOISTURE SURGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER
50 DEWPS GETTING CLEAR UP TO I-90 SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CERTAINLY DEWPS IN THE 40S WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND FAVORS STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CERTAINLY READS THAT WAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE WATCH HOW THAT
CLEARING EVOLVES.

FOR FOG...ONE THING WE ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IS IT WILL BE HAZY TROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN DEWPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE
WAS TALK OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON WHERE
TO PUT ONE OTHER THAN ANYONE UNDER STRATUS NOW...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT
OUR ENTIRE CWA AND DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE SUCH A LARGE ADVY AT THIS
POINT. ON TOP OF THAT...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING 8-12 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SO THAT WILL SUPPLY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL.
NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THAT CLEARING RACING NORTH OUT OF IA. AT THIS
POINT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS WHERE OUR DEEPEST SNOW
RESIDES ACROSS THE NRN MPX CWA. THE HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
IT DOES SHOW VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN AS THAT
SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS IA WORKS INTO MN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY MAY GO NOTHING BUT UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRST RUN OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TOOL WITH THE LOCAL SUPERBLEND
BROUGHT A TEMPERATURE OF 53 TO ALBERT LEA BY 7Z TONIGHT. DID NOT GO
QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT DO THINK MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF A NEW
ULM TO MORA LINE WILL RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MILD
START...ALSO GAVE HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT OF AN UPWARD NUDGE TO ABOUT A
50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 22.12 GEM/ECMWF.
THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR SE MN/WRN WI TOMORROW.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET THAT
HIGH...BUT DO HAVE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR ALL BUT WRN AND
CENTRAL MN.

FOR PRECIP...THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERWHELMING. OUR BIGGEST
PROBLEM THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FACT THAT THE ATMO CAN
NOT TAKE ON MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB...BUT ABOVE THAT...ITS
BONE DRY. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY OUT IN ERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT LIKING
THE IDEA THE GFS/SREF/NMM/ARW SHOW OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN CENTERED
ON FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER COMING OUT OF SODAK TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 22.18 HOPWRF MEMBERS ALSO
SHOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP BY 9Z /THE END OF THOSE RUNS/ MOVING INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW. DID BOOST POPS IN SW MN INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THIS MAY VERY WILL END UP
BEING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF OUR MN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A
DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN WEST CENTRAL WI.

BY 00Z MONDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF 120-150M 500MB 12-HR
HEIGHTS FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING IS
STILL QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH 12Z SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES TO
FOLLOW. THE 22.12Z GFS IS BY FAR AND AWAY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY
06Z MONDAY TO 975MB...969MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z...AND
966MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z. THE NAM AND
ECMWF SEEM MORE REASONABLE WITH A BIT MORE MODEST DEEPENING.
TYPICALLY...THE KIND OF DEEPENING THE GFS IS SHOWING ONLY OCCURS
WITH VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND/OR A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH. WE REALLY DON`T HAVE EITHER. THERE IS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THEY SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
THAT ARE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND NOT AS WOUND UP.
THEREFORE...WE DID NOT JUMP ON THE GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WOULD GIVE 6-8" TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE GFS INDICATES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 22.15Z SREF AND GEM ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BUT WE SIMPLY DIDN`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...THE WARM TODAY HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE WERE A
LOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN MN TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 1-4" OF SNOW...IMPRESSIVE COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 22.12Z ECMWF HAS SUSTAINED 25-30KTS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MUCH
LESS LIFT. THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH LOCKS IN OUR CHANCE
FOR A WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING. IT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER CENTRAL IOWA/SOUTHWESTERN MN AND
THAT DRIER AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE REST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS DRIER AIR
PROGRESSION STALLING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SO CONTINUED A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
MSP...STC...RNH...AND EAU THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SUCH DRIER
AIR HAS ALREADY REACHED RWF WHERE CIGS HAVE DISAPPEARED...AND MAY
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT AXN LATE TONIGHT.

KMSP...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
INSTANCES OF LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER CONDITIONS WILL REACH SO MAINTAINED A
SIMILAR STORY FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 222153
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TREND OF STRATUS
AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING PRETTY UNDERWHELMING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MPX AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GOING ACROSS ERN WI AND
MICHIGAN.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE MPX CWA HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALL DAY. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES HEADING OUR WAY. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO NRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPS IN THE 40S AND MORE
CONCERNING FOR THE CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES. THE SECOND
MOISTURE SURGE IS JUST NOW GETTING TO I-80 AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEWPS IN THE 50S...AND A RETURN TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THE
ECMWF/GEM SHOW THIS SECOND MOISTURE SURGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER
50 DEWPS GETTING CLEAR UP TO I-90 SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CERTAINLY DEWPS IN THE 40S WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND FAVORS STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CERTAINLY READS THAT WAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE WATCH HOW THAT
CLEARING EVOLVES.

FOR FOG...ONE THING WE ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IS IT WILL BE HAZY TROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN DEWPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE
WAS TALK OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON WHERE
TO PUT ONE OTHER THAN ANYONE UNDER STRATUS NOW...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT
OUR ENTIRE CWA AND DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE SUCH A LARGE ADVY AT THIS
POINT. ON TOP OF THAT...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING 8-12 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SO THAT WILL SUPPLY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL.
NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THAT CLEARING RACING NORTH OUT OF IA. AT THIS
POINT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS WHERE OUR DEEPEST SNOW
RESIDES ACROSS THE NRN MPX CWA. THE HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
IT DOES SHOW VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN AS THAT
SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS IA WORKS INTO MN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY MAY GO NOTHING BUT UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRST RUN OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TOOL WITH THE LOCAL SUPERBLEND
BROUGHT A TEMPERATURE OF 53 TO ALBERT LEA BY 7Z TONIGHT. DID NOT GO
QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT DO THINK MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF A NEW
ULM TO MORA LINE WILL RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MILD
START...ALSO GAVE HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT OF AN UPWARD NUDGE TO ABOUT A
50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 22.12 GEM/ECMWF.
THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR SE MN/WRN WI TOMORROW.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET THAT
HIGH...BUT DO HAVE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR ALL BUT WRN AND
CENTRAL MN.

FOR PRECIP...THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERWHELMING. OUR BIGGEST
PROBLEM THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FACT THAT THE ATMO CAN
NOT TAKE ON MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB...BUT ABOVE THAT...ITS
BONE DRY. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY OUT IN ERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT LIKING
THE IDEA THE GFS/SREF/NMM/ARW SHOW OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN CENTERED
ON FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER COMING OUT OF SODAK TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 22.18 HOPWRF MEMBERS ALSO
SHOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP BY 9Z /THE END OF THOSE RUNS/ MOVING INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW. DID BOOST POPS IN SW MN INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THIS MAY VERY WILL END UP
BEING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF OUR MN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A
DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN WEST CENTRAL WI.

BY 00Z MONDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF 120-150M 500MB 12-HR
HEIGHTS FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING IS
STILL QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH 12Z SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES TO
FOLLOW. THE 22.12Z GFS IS BY FAR AND AWAY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY
06Z MONDAY TO 975MB...969MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z...AND
966MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z. THE NAM AND
ECMWF SEEM MORE REASONABLE WITH A BIT MORE MODEST DEEPENING.
TYPICALLY...THE KIND OF DEEPENING THE GFS IS SHOWING ONLY OCCURS
WITH VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND/OR A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH. WE REALLY DON`T HAVE EITHER. THERE IS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THEY SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
THAT ARE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND NOT AS WOUND UP.
THEREFORE...WE DID NOT JUMP ON THE GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WOULD GIVE 6-8" TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE GFS INDICATES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 22.15Z SREF AND GEM ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BUT WE SIMPLY DIDN`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...THE WARM TODAY HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE WERE A
LOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN MN TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 1-4" OF SNOW...IMPRESSIVE COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 22.12Z ECMWF HAS SUSTAINED 25-30KTS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MUCH
LESS LIFT. THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH LOCKS IN OUR CHANCE
FOR A WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING. IT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR AND LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CRAWL NW ACROSS
MN...STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT IT REACHES AXN...BUT WITH
12Z TAF HAVING IT GETTING THERE...KEPT THAT TREND GOING. THESE
CIGS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
JUST GOING FROM LIFR TO IFR BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIFR TONIGHT.
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEPT THE TREND FOR FG TONIGHT FROM 12Z TAFS
GOING. UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO QUICKLY GO VFR. FOR NOW...TIMED IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWING AROUND TO 240 DEGS OR GREATER.
SREF MVFR CIG PROBABILITY DROPS TO NEAR ZERO SUNDAY MORNING OUT
WEST...SO WE COULD VERY WELL SEE CIGS IMPROVE FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS MN. FOR PRECIP...LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST
CHANCE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH A NARROW BAND OF RAIN THE
NMM/ARW/GFS/SREF SHOW COMING OUT OF SODAK LATE TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS/VIS
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
LOWERING IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING ON WHEN CIGS DROP BACK BELOW 005. 50/50 CONFIDENCE
ON THE FOG TEMPO GROUP...BUT WITH IT ALREADY IN THE TAF...LEFT IT
THERE. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THIS FAR OUT WITH
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TAF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOLLOWED THE
IDEA OF THE NAM/SREF ON THAT FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG









000
FXUS63 KMPX 222153
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TREND OF STRATUS
AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING PRETTY UNDERWHELMING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MPX AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GOING ACROSS ERN WI AND
MICHIGAN.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE MPX CWA HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALL DAY. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES HEADING OUR WAY. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO NRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPS IN THE 40S AND MORE
CONCERNING FOR THE CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES. THE SECOND
MOISTURE SURGE IS JUST NOW GETTING TO I-80 AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEWPS IN THE 50S...AND A RETURN TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THE
ECMWF/GEM SHOW THIS SECOND MOISTURE SURGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER
50 DEWPS GETTING CLEAR UP TO I-90 SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CERTAINLY DEWPS IN THE 40S WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND FAVORS STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CERTAINLY READS THAT WAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE WATCH HOW THAT
CLEARING EVOLVES.

FOR FOG...ONE THING WE ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IS IT WILL BE HAZY TROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN DEWPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE
WAS TALK OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON WHERE
TO PUT ONE OTHER THAN ANYONE UNDER STRATUS NOW...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT
OUR ENTIRE CWA AND DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE SUCH A LARGE ADVY AT THIS
POINT. ON TOP OF THAT...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING 8-12 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SO THAT WILL SUPPLY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL.
NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THAT CLEARING RACING NORTH OUT OF IA. AT THIS
POINT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS WHERE OUR DEEPEST SNOW
RESIDES ACROSS THE NRN MPX CWA. THE HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
IT DOES SHOW VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN AS THAT
SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS IA WORKS INTO MN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY MAY GO NOTHING BUT UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRST RUN OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TOOL WITH THE LOCAL SUPERBLEND
BROUGHT A TEMPERATURE OF 53 TO ALBERT LEA BY 7Z TONIGHT. DID NOT GO
QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT DO THINK MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF A NEW
ULM TO MORA LINE WILL RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MILD
START...ALSO GAVE HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT OF AN UPWARD NUDGE TO ABOUT A
50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 22.12 GEM/ECMWF.
THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR SE MN/WRN WI TOMORROW.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET THAT
HIGH...BUT DO HAVE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR ALL BUT WRN AND
CENTRAL MN.

FOR PRECIP...THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERWHELMING. OUR BIGGEST
PROBLEM THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FACT THAT THE ATMO CAN
NOT TAKE ON MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB...BUT ABOVE THAT...ITS
BONE DRY. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY OUT IN ERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT LIKING
THE IDEA THE GFS/SREF/NMM/ARW SHOW OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN CENTERED
ON FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER COMING OUT OF SODAK TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 22.18 HOPWRF MEMBERS ALSO
SHOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP BY 9Z /THE END OF THOSE RUNS/ MOVING INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW. DID BOOST POPS IN SW MN INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THIS MAY VERY WILL END UP
BEING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF OUR MN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A
DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN WEST CENTRAL WI.

BY 00Z MONDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF 120-150M 500MB 12-HR
HEIGHTS FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING IS
STILL QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH 12Z SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES TO
FOLLOW. THE 22.12Z GFS IS BY FAR AND AWAY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY
06Z MONDAY TO 975MB...969MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z...AND
966MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z. THE NAM AND
ECMWF SEEM MORE REASONABLE WITH A BIT MORE MODEST DEEPENING.
TYPICALLY...THE KIND OF DEEPENING THE GFS IS SHOWING ONLY OCCURS
WITH VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND/OR A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH. WE REALLY DON`T HAVE EITHER. THERE IS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THEY SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
THAT ARE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND NOT AS WOUND UP.
THEREFORE...WE DID NOT JUMP ON THE GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WOULD GIVE 6-8" TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE GFS INDICATES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 22.15Z SREF AND GEM ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BUT WE SIMPLY DIDN`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...THE WARM TODAY HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE WERE A
LOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN MN TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 1-4" OF SNOW...IMPRESSIVE COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 22.12Z ECMWF HAS SUSTAINED 25-30KTS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MUCH
LESS LIFT. THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH LOCKS IN OUR CHANCE
FOR A WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING. IT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR AND LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CRAWL NW ACROSS
MN...STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT IT REACHES AXN...BUT WITH
12Z TAF HAVING IT GETTING THERE...KEPT THAT TREND GOING. THESE
CIGS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
JUST GOING FROM LIFR TO IFR BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIFR TONIGHT.
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEPT THE TREND FOR FG TONIGHT FROM 12Z TAFS
GOING. UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO QUICKLY GO VFR. FOR NOW...TIMED IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWING AROUND TO 240 DEGS OR GREATER.
SREF MVFR CIG PROBABILITY DROPS TO NEAR ZERO SUNDAY MORNING OUT
WEST...SO WE COULD VERY WELL SEE CIGS IMPROVE FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS MN. FOR PRECIP...LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST
CHANCE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH A NARROW BAND OF RAIN THE
NMM/ARW/GFS/SREF SHOW COMING OUT OF SODAK LATE TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS/VIS
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
LOWERING IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING ON WHEN CIGS DROP BACK BELOW 005. 50/50 CONFIDENCE
ON THE FOG TEMPO GROUP...BUT WITH IT ALREADY IN THE TAF...LEFT IT
THERE. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THIS FAR OUT WITH
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TAF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOLLOWED THE
IDEA OF THE NAM/SREF ON THAT FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 222153
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TREND OF STRATUS
AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING PRETTY UNDERWHELMING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MPX AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GOING ACROSS ERN WI AND
MICHIGAN.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE MPX CWA HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALL DAY. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES HEADING OUR WAY. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO NRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPS IN THE 40S AND MORE
CONCERNING FOR THE CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES. THE SECOND
MOISTURE SURGE IS JUST NOW GETTING TO I-80 AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEWPS IN THE 50S...AND A RETURN TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THE
ECMWF/GEM SHOW THIS SECOND MOISTURE SURGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER
50 DEWPS GETTING CLEAR UP TO I-90 SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CERTAINLY DEWPS IN THE 40S WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND FAVORS STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CERTAINLY READS THAT WAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE WATCH HOW THAT
CLEARING EVOLVES.

FOR FOG...ONE THING WE ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IS IT WILL BE HAZY TROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN DEWPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE
WAS TALK OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON WHERE
TO PUT ONE OTHER THAN ANYONE UNDER STRATUS NOW...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT
OUR ENTIRE CWA AND DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE SUCH A LARGE ADVY AT THIS
POINT. ON TOP OF THAT...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING 8-12 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SO THAT WILL SUPPLY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL.
NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THAT CLEARING RACING NORTH OUT OF IA. AT THIS
POINT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS WHERE OUR DEEPEST SNOW
RESIDES ACROSS THE NRN MPX CWA. THE HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
IT DOES SHOW VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN AS THAT
SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS IA WORKS INTO MN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY MAY GO NOTHING BUT UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRST RUN OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TOOL WITH THE LOCAL SUPERBLEND
BROUGHT A TEMPERATURE OF 53 TO ALBERT LEA BY 7Z TONIGHT. DID NOT GO
QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT DO THINK MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF A NEW
ULM TO MORA LINE WILL RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MILD
START...ALSO GAVE HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT OF AN UPWARD NUDGE TO ABOUT A
50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 22.12 GEM/ECMWF.
THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR SE MN/WRN WI TOMORROW.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET THAT
HIGH...BUT DO HAVE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR ALL BUT WRN AND
CENTRAL MN.

FOR PRECIP...THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERWHELMING. OUR BIGGEST
PROBLEM THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FACT THAT THE ATMO CAN
NOT TAKE ON MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB...BUT ABOVE THAT...ITS
BONE DRY. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY OUT IN ERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT LIKING
THE IDEA THE GFS/SREF/NMM/ARW SHOW OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN CENTERED
ON FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER COMING OUT OF SODAK TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 22.18 HOPWRF MEMBERS ALSO
SHOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP BY 9Z /THE END OF THOSE RUNS/ MOVING INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW. DID BOOST POPS IN SW MN INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THIS MAY VERY WILL END UP
BEING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF OUR MN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A
DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN WEST CENTRAL WI.

BY 00Z MONDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF 120-150M 500MB 12-HR
HEIGHTS FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING IS
STILL QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH 12Z SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES TO
FOLLOW. THE 22.12Z GFS IS BY FAR AND AWAY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY
06Z MONDAY TO 975MB...969MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z...AND
966MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z. THE NAM AND
ECMWF SEEM MORE REASONABLE WITH A BIT MORE MODEST DEEPENING.
TYPICALLY...THE KIND OF DEEPENING THE GFS IS SHOWING ONLY OCCURS
WITH VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND/OR A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH. WE REALLY DON`T HAVE EITHER. THERE IS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THEY SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
THAT ARE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND NOT AS WOUND UP.
THEREFORE...WE DID NOT JUMP ON THE GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WOULD GIVE 6-8" TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE GFS INDICATES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 22.15Z SREF AND GEM ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BUT WE SIMPLY DIDN`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...THE WARM TODAY HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE WERE A
LOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN MN TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 1-4" OF SNOW...IMPRESSIVE COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 22.12Z ECMWF HAS SUSTAINED 25-30KTS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MUCH
LESS LIFT. THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH LOCKS IN OUR CHANCE
FOR A WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING. IT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR AND LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CRAWL NW ACROSS
MN...STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT IT REACHES AXN...BUT WITH
12Z TAF HAVING IT GETTING THERE...KEPT THAT TREND GOING. THESE
CIGS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
JUST GOING FROM LIFR TO IFR BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIFR TONIGHT.
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEPT THE TREND FOR FG TONIGHT FROM 12Z TAFS
GOING. UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO QUICKLY GO VFR. FOR NOW...TIMED IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWING AROUND TO 240 DEGS OR GREATER.
SREF MVFR CIG PROBABILITY DROPS TO NEAR ZERO SUNDAY MORNING OUT
WEST...SO WE COULD VERY WELL SEE CIGS IMPROVE FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS MN. FOR PRECIP...LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST
CHANCE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH A NARROW BAND OF RAIN THE
NMM/ARW/GFS/SREF SHOW COMING OUT OF SODAK LATE TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS/VIS
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
LOWERING IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING ON WHEN CIGS DROP BACK BELOW 005. 50/50 CONFIDENCE
ON THE FOG TEMPO GROUP...BUT WITH IT ALREADY IN THE TAF...LEFT IT
THERE. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THIS FAR OUT WITH
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TAF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOLLOWED THE
IDEA OF THE NAM/SREF ON THAT FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG









000
FXUS63 KMPX 222153
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TREND OF STRATUS
AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING PRETTY UNDERWHELMING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MPX AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GOING ACROSS ERN WI AND
MICHIGAN.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE MPX CWA HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALL DAY. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES HEADING OUR WAY. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO NRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPS IN THE 40S AND MORE
CONCERNING FOR THE CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES. THE SECOND
MOISTURE SURGE IS JUST NOW GETTING TO I-80 AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEWPS IN THE 50S...AND A RETURN TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THE
ECMWF/GEM SHOW THIS SECOND MOISTURE SURGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER
50 DEWPS GETTING CLEAR UP TO I-90 SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CERTAINLY DEWPS IN THE 40S WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND FAVORS STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CERTAINLY READS THAT WAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE WATCH HOW THAT
CLEARING EVOLVES.

FOR FOG...ONE THING WE ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IS IT WILL BE HAZY TROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN DEWPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE
WAS TALK OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON WHERE
TO PUT ONE OTHER THAN ANYONE UNDER STRATUS NOW...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT
OUR ENTIRE CWA AND DID NOT WANT TO ISSUE SUCH A LARGE ADVY AT THIS
POINT. ON TOP OF THAT...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING 8-12 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SO THAT WILL SUPPLY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL.
NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THAT CLEARING RACING NORTH OUT OF IA. AT THIS
POINT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS WHERE OUR DEEPEST SNOW
RESIDES ACROSS THE NRN MPX CWA. THE HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
IT DOES SHOW VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN AS THAT
SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS IA WORKS INTO MN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY MAY GO NOTHING BUT UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRST RUN OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TOOL WITH THE LOCAL SUPERBLEND
BROUGHT A TEMPERATURE OF 53 TO ALBERT LEA BY 7Z TONIGHT. DID NOT GO
QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT DO THINK MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF A NEW
ULM TO MORA LINE WILL RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MILD
START...ALSO GAVE HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT OF AN UPWARD NUDGE TO ABOUT A
50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 22.12 GEM/ECMWF.
THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR SE MN/WRN WI TOMORROW.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET THAT
HIGH...BUT DO HAVE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR ALL BUT WRN AND
CENTRAL MN.

FOR PRECIP...THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERWHELMING. OUR BIGGEST
PROBLEM THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FACT THAT THE ATMO CAN
NOT TAKE ON MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB...BUT ABOVE THAT...ITS
BONE DRY. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY OUT IN ERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT LIKING
THE IDEA THE GFS/SREF/NMM/ARW SHOW OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN CENTERED
ON FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER COMING OUT OF SODAK TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 22.18 HOPWRF MEMBERS ALSO
SHOW THIS BAND OF PRECIP BY 9Z /THE END OF THOSE RUNS/ MOVING INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW. DID BOOST POPS IN SW MN INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THIS MAY VERY WILL END UP
BEING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF OUR MN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A
DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN WEST CENTRAL WI.

BY 00Z MONDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF 120-150M 500MB 12-HR
HEIGHTS FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING IS
STILL QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH 12Z SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES TO
FOLLOW. THE 22.12Z GFS IS BY FAR AND AWAY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY
06Z MONDAY TO 975MB...969MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z...AND
966MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z. THE NAM AND
ECMWF SEEM MORE REASONABLE WITH A BIT MORE MODEST DEEPENING.
TYPICALLY...THE KIND OF DEEPENING THE GFS IS SHOWING ONLY OCCURS
WITH VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND/OR A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH. WE REALLY DON`T HAVE EITHER. THERE IS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THEY SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
THAT ARE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND NOT AS WOUND UP.
THEREFORE...WE DID NOT JUMP ON THE GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WOULD GIVE 6-8" TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE GFS INDICATES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 22.15Z SREF AND GEM ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BUT WE SIMPLY DIDN`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...THE WARM TODAY HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE WERE A
LOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN MN TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 1-4" OF SNOW...IMPRESSIVE COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 22.12Z ECMWF HAS SUSTAINED 25-30KTS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MUCH
LESS LIFT. THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH LOCKS IN OUR CHANCE
FOR A WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING. IT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR AND LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CRAWL NW ACROSS
MN...STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT IT REACHES AXN...BUT WITH
12Z TAF HAVING IT GETTING THERE...KEPT THAT TREND GOING. THESE
CIGS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
JUST GOING FROM LIFR TO IFR BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIFR TONIGHT.
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEPT THE TREND FOR FG TONIGHT FROM 12Z TAFS
GOING. UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO QUICKLY GO VFR. FOR NOW...TIMED IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWING AROUND TO 240 DEGS OR GREATER.
SREF MVFR CIG PROBABILITY DROPS TO NEAR ZERO SUNDAY MORNING OUT
WEST...SO WE COULD VERY WELL SEE CIGS IMPROVE FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS MN. FOR PRECIP...LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST
CHANCE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH A NARROW BAND OF RAIN THE
NMM/ARW/GFS/SREF SHOW COMING OUT OF SODAK LATE TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS/VIS
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
LOWERING IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING ON WHEN CIGS DROP BACK BELOW 005. 50/50 CONFIDENCE
ON THE FOG TEMPO GROUP...BUT WITH IT ALREADY IN THE TAF...LEFT IT
THERE. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THIS FAR OUT WITH
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TAF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOLLOWED THE
IDEA OF THE NAM/SREF ON THAT FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 221845
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1245 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING /FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS/ OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA AND WILL
CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WENT WITH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD/FOG FORECAST COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE RELATIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
STREAMING NORTHWARD TAKES AN EASTWARD TURN. MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI ARE CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS AND
FOG...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND TO THE WEST. THE HRRR
HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS/FOG...SO
WEIGHTED HEAVILY WITH THE HRRR IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOME TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND KEEP EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SOCKED IN THROUGH THE
DAY.

A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND MAKE IT TO MANITOBA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS.  THE BEST AREA OF LIFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT SOME MARGINAL LIFT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A
VERY SATURATED NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...EXPANDED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A MILD START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD PRIOR TO THE MERGING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES...AND THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BLASTS THE REGION.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF POPS
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING SOMEWHAT CAUGHT BETWEEN
THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVES. THIS WILL MEAN SUNDAY WILL BE A FOGGY DAY WITH OVERCAST
SKIES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD EAU CLAIRE...WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TWO PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS THIS OCCURS WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TYPICAL WEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AREAS...WHERE MODELS INDICATE 40-45KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE CHANNEL. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS /NORTHERN MN/WI/...SO IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE GIVEN THE
SNOWPACK WILL HAVE ENDURED MELTING/RE-FREEZING/DRIZZLE.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY...THEN 850 MB TEMPS REDUCE TO AROUND
-15C LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 20-30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES. THESE VALUES
ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSLATE TO A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...WHEN HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR AND LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CRAWL NW ACROSS
MN...STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT IT REACHES AXN...BUT WITH
12Z TAF HAVING IT GETTING THERE...KEPT THAT TREND GOING. THESE
CIGS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
JUST GOING FROM LIFR TO IFR BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIFR TONIGHT.
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEPT THE TREND FOR FG TONIGHT FROM 12Z TAFS
GOING. UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO QUICKLY GO VFR. FOR NOW...TIMED IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWING AROUND TO 240 DEGS OR GREATER.
SREF MVFR CIG PROBABILITY DROPS TO NEAR ZERO SUNDAY MORNING OUT
WEST...SO WE COULD VERY WELL SEE CIGS IMPROVE FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS MN. FOR PRECIP...LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST
CHANCE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH A NARROW BAND OF RAIN THE
NMM/ARW/GFS/SREF SHOW COMING OUT OF SODAK LATE TONIGHT AND WORKING
ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS/VIS
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
LOWERING IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING ON WHEN CIGS DROP BACK BELOW 005. 50/50 CONFIDENCE
ON THE FOG TEMPO GROUP...BUT WITH IT ALREADY IN THE TAF...LEFT IT
THERE. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THIS FAR OUT WITH
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TAF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOLLOWED THE
IDEA OF THE NAM/SREF ON THAT FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KMPX 221155
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING /FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS/ OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA AND WILL
CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WENT WITH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD/FOG FORECAST COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE RELATIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
STREAMING NORTHWARD TAKES AN EASTWARD TURN. MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI ARE CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS AND
FOG...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND TO THE WEST. THE HRRR
HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS/FOG...SO
WEIGHTED HEAVILY WITH THE HRRR IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOME TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND KEEP EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SOCKED IN THROUGH THE
DAY.

A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND MAKE IT TO MANITOBA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS.  THE BEST AREA OF LIFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT SOME MARGINAL LIFT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A
VERY SATURATED NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...EXPANDED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A MILD START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD PRIOR TO THE MERGING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES...AND THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BLASTS THE REGION.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF POPS
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING SOMEWHAT CAUGHT BETWEEN
THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVES. THIS WILL MEAN SUNDAY WILL BE A FOGGY DAY WITH OVERCAST
SKIES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD EAU CLAIRE...WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TWO PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS THIS OCCURS WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TYPICAL WEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AREAS...WHERE MODELS INDICATE 40-45KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE CHANNEL. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS /NORTHERN MN/WI/...SO IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE GIVEN THE
SNOWPACK WILL HAVE ENDURED MELTING/RE-FREEZING/DRIZZLE.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY...THEN 850 MB TEMPS REDUCE TO AROUND
-15C LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 20-30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES. THESE VALUES
ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSLATE TO A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...WHEN HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE THE RULE AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS ONLY AIDED BY A
MELTING SNOW PACK AND SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION. CHALLENGES LIE
IN TIMING OF IFR AND LIFR IMPACTS FOR EACH SITE...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO REMAIN FOR THE EASTERN HALF TODAY...AS LOW
STRATUS SPREADS TO THE WEST SLOWLY AND WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT ALL
TAF SITES. WESTERN SITES WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FIRST AS DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE AND LAST LONGER. INCLUDED -DZ AT EAU
CLAIRE FOR TONIGHT AS MODEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WI. THE
ENTIRE ARE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG TONIGHT.

KMSP...IFR OR LOWER WILL BE COMMON...BUT CEILINGS MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SNEAK UP TO 1K FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THE VSBY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BUT
WANTED TO ADVERTISE THAT VIS COULD FALL QUITE LOW BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. -DZ IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT LOOKS MORE PROMISING
EAST...SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
TUES...VFR/MVFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 221155
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING /FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS/ OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA AND WILL
CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WENT WITH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD/FOG FORECAST COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE RELATIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
STREAMING NORTHWARD TAKES AN EASTWARD TURN. MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI ARE CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS AND
FOG...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND TO THE WEST. THE HRRR
HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS/FOG...SO
WEIGHTED HEAVILY WITH THE HRRR IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOME TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND KEEP EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SOCKED IN THROUGH THE
DAY.

A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND MAKE IT TO MANITOBA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS.  THE BEST AREA OF LIFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT SOME MARGINAL LIFT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A
VERY SATURATED NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...EXPANDED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A MILD START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD PRIOR TO THE MERGING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES...AND THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BLASTS THE REGION.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF POPS
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING SOMEWHAT CAUGHT BETWEEN
THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVES. THIS WILL MEAN SUNDAY WILL BE A FOGGY DAY WITH OVERCAST
SKIES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD EAU CLAIRE...WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TWO PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS THIS OCCURS WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TYPICAL WEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AREAS...WHERE MODELS INDICATE 40-45KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE CHANNEL. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS /NORTHERN MN/WI/...SO IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE GIVEN THE
SNOWPACK WILL HAVE ENDURED MELTING/RE-FREEZING/DRIZZLE.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY...THEN 850 MB TEMPS REDUCE TO AROUND
-15C LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 20-30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES. THESE VALUES
ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSLATE TO A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...WHEN HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE THE RULE AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS ONLY AIDED BY A
MELTING SNOW PACK AND SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION. CHALLENGES LIE
IN TIMING OF IFR AND LIFR IMPACTS FOR EACH SITE...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO REMAIN FOR THE EASTERN HALF TODAY...AS LOW
STRATUS SPREADS TO THE WEST SLOWLY AND WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT ALL
TAF SITES. WESTERN SITES WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FIRST AS DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE AND LAST LONGER. INCLUDED -DZ AT EAU
CLAIRE FOR TONIGHT AS MODEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WI. THE
ENTIRE ARE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG TONIGHT.

KMSP...IFR OR LOWER WILL BE COMMON...BUT CEILINGS MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SNEAK UP TO 1K FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THE VSBY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BUT
WANTED TO ADVERTISE THAT VIS COULD FALL QUITE LOW BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. -DZ IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT LOOKS MORE PROMISING
EAST...SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
TUES...VFR/MVFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD







000
FXUS63 KMPX 221040
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING /FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS/ OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA AND WILL
CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WENT WITH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD/FOG FORECAST COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE RELATIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
STREAMING NORTHWARD TAKES AN EASTWARD TURN. MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI ARE CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS AND
FOG...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND TO THE WEST. THE HRRR
HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS/FOG...SO
WEIGHTED HEAVILY WITH THE HRRR IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOME TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND KEEP EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SOCKED IN THROUGH THE
DAY.

A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND MAKE IT TO MANITOBA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS.  THE BEST AREA OF LIFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT SOME MARGINAL LIFT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A
VERY SATURATED NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...EXPANDED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A MILD START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD PRIOR TO THE MERGING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES...AND THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BLASTS THE REGION.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF POPS
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING SOMEWHAT CAUGHT BETWEEN
THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVES. THIS WILL MEAN SUNDAY WILL BE A FOGGY DAY WITH OVERCAST
SKIES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD EAU CLAIRE...WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TWO PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS THIS OCCURS WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TYPICAL WEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AREAS...WHERE MODELS INDICATE 40-45KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE CHANNEL. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS /NORTHERN MN/WI/...SO IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE GIVEN THE
SNOWPACK WILL HAVE ENDURED MELTING/RE-FREEZING/DRIZZLE.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY...THEN 850 MB TEMPS REDUCE TO AROUND
-15C LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 20-30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES. THESE VALUES
ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSLATE TO A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...WHEN HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI.  THIS STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS...WHERE IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD
BUILD NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IFR/LIFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS BY THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG ALSO EXISTS...AS THE HRRR AND HOPWRF SHOW VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
A MILE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT...MOST MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE SNOW PACK.

KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A LOW
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG PERSIST. MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
TUES...VFR/MVFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL






000
FXUS63 KMPX 221040
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING /FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS/ OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA AND WILL
CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WENT WITH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD/FOG FORECAST COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE RELATIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
STREAMING NORTHWARD TAKES AN EASTWARD TURN. MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI ARE CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS AND
FOG...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND TO THE WEST. THE HRRR
HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS/FOG...SO
WEIGHTED HEAVILY WITH THE HRRR IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOME TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND KEEP EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SOCKED IN THROUGH THE
DAY.

A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND MAKE IT TO MANITOBA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS.  THE BEST AREA OF LIFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT SOME MARGINAL LIFT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A
VERY SATURATED NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...EXPANDED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A MILD START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD PRIOR TO THE MERGING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES...AND THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BLASTS THE REGION.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF POPS
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING SOMEWHAT CAUGHT BETWEEN
THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVES. THIS WILL MEAN SUNDAY WILL BE A FOGGY DAY WITH OVERCAST
SKIES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD EAU CLAIRE...WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TWO PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS THIS OCCURS WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TYPICAL WEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AREAS...WHERE MODELS INDICATE 40-45KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE CHANNEL. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS /NORTHERN MN/WI/...SO IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE GIVEN THE
SNOWPACK WILL HAVE ENDURED MELTING/RE-FREEZING/DRIZZLE.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY...THEN 850 MB TEMPS REDUCE TO AROUND
-15C LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 20-30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES. THESE VALUES
ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSLATE TO A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...WHEN HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI.  THIS STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS...WHERE IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD
BUILD NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IFR/LIFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS BY THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG ALSO EXISTS...AS THE HRRR AND HOPWRF SHOW VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
A MILE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT...MOST MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE SNOW PACK.

KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A LOW
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG PERSIST. MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
TUES...VFR/MVFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 220537
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THERE ARE A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FIRST: IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE SECOND:
IS THE MIXED P-TYPE AND WIND EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THERE IS A
LOW STRATUS DECK STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WE THINK THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION AND
BETTER OMEGA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT /BASICALLY INN AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 40-80% IN THESE AREAS. LOCALLY...WE`RE NOT CONFIDENT IN
MUCH ELSE BESIDES A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG
AS THE STRATUS LOWERS. WE MAINTAINED LOW PROBS OF PRECIP IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX...AND IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL
AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE FOLLOWED THE LATEST REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OF THE HRRR...WHICH
MATCH UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 0.5KM CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS OFF THE 20Z-22Z RAP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM.
THE NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INDICATE A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN...PROBABLY
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NAM SHOW 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR 12-15 HOURS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CONDITION OF THE SNOWPACK WILL BE IN
QUESTION IN THE EAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR
RAIN...BUT WESTERN MN WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AND WE COULD ALSO
PICK UP A HIGH RATIO 0.5-2.0" IN SPOTS...SO THE THREAT FOR BLOWING
SNOW IS STILL A CONCERN IN WESTERN MN. WINTER HEADLINES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND
CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE
NAEFS AND GEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE ALSO QUITE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI.  THIS STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS...WHERE IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD
BUILD NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IFR/LIFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS BY THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG ALSO EXISTS...AS THE HRRR AND HOPWRF SHOW VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
A MILE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT...MOST MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE SNOW PACK.

KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A LOW
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG PERSIST. MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
TUES...VFR/MVFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL








000
FXUS63 KMPX 220537
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THERE ARE A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FIRST: IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE SECOND:
IS THE MIXED P-TYPE AND WIND EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THERE IS A
LOW STRATUS DECK STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WE THINK THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION AND
BETTER OMEGA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT /BASICALLY INN AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 40-80% IN THESE AREAS. LOCALLY...WE`RE NOT CONFIDENT IN
MUCH ELSE BESIDES A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG
AS THE STRATUS LOWERS. WE MAINTAINED LOW PROBS OF PRECIP IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX...AND IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL
AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE FOLLOWED THE LATEST REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OF THE HRRR...WHICH
MATCH UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 0.5KM CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS OFF THE 20Z-22Z RAP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM.
THE NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INDICATE A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN...PROBABLY
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NAM SHOW 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR 12-15 HOURS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CONDITION OF THE SNOWPACK WILL BE IN
QUESTION IN THE EAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR
RAIN...BUT WESTERN MN WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AND WE COULD ALSO
PICK UP A HIGH RATIO 0.5-2.0" IN SPOTS...SO THE THREAT FOR BLOWING
SNOW IS STILL A CONCERN IN WESTERN MN. WINTER HEADLINES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND
CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE
NAEFS AND GEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE ALSO QUITE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI.  THIS STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS...WHERE IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD
BUILD NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IFR/LIFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS BY THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG ALSO EXISTS...AS THE HRRR AND HOPWRF SHOW VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
A MILE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT...MOST MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE SNOW PACK.

KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A LOW
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG PERSIST. MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
TUES...VFR/MVFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 212355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THERE ARE A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FIRST: IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE SECOND:
IS THE MIXED P-TYPE AND WIND EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THERE IS A
LOW STRATUS DECK STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WE THINK THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION AND
BETTER OMEGA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT /BASICALLY INN AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 40-80% IN THESE AREAS. LOCALLY...WE`RE NOT CONFIDENT IN
MUCH ELSE BESIDES A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG
AS THE STRATUS LOWERS. WE MAINTAINED LOW PROBS OF PRECIP IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX...AND IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL
AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE FOLLOWED THE LATEST REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OF THE HRRR...WHICH
MATCH UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 0.5KM CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS OFF THE 20Z-22Z RAP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM.
THE NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INDICATE A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN...PROBABLY
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NAM SHOW 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR 12-15 HOURS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CONDITION OF THE SNOWPACK WILL BE IN
QUESTION IN THE EAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR
RAIN...BUT WESTERN MN WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AND WE COULD ALSO
PICK UP A HIGH RATIO 0.5-2.0" IN SPOTS...SO THE THREAT FOR BLOWING
SNOW IS STILL A CONCERN IN WESTERN MN. WINTER HEADLINES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND
CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE
NAEFS AND GEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE ALSO QUITE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER BROKEN
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH...CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...AFFECTING EAU...RNH...AND MSP.
IFR/BORDERLINE LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK...WITH FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR OVER
THE SNOWPACK SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS PRESENT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI
AND EASTERN MN...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET WITH CIGS CONTINUING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. WINDS SSW 10G20 KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 212355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THERE ARE A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FIRST: IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE SECOND:
IS THE MIXED P-TYPE AND WIND EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THERE IS A
LOW STRATUS DECK STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WE THINK THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION AND
BETTER OMEGA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT /BASICALLY INN AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 40-80% IN THESE AREAS. LOCALLY...WE`RE NOT CONFIDENT IN
MUCH ELSE BESIDES A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG
AS THE STRATUS LOWERS. WE MAINTAINED LOW PROBS OF PRECIP IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX...AND IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL
AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE FOLLOWED THE LATEST REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OF THE HRRR...WHICH
MATCH UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 0.5KM CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS OFF THE 20Z-22Z RAP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM.
THE NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INDICATE A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN...PROBABLY
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NAM SHOW 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR 12-15 HOURS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CONDITION OF THE SNOWPACK WILL BE IN
QUESTION IN THE EAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR
RAIN...BUT WESTERN MN WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AND WE COULD ALSO
PICK UP A HIGH RATIO 0.5-2.0" IN SPOTS...SO THE THREAT FOR BLOWING
SNOW IS STILL A CONCERN IN WESTERN MN. WINTER HEADLINES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND
CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE
NAEFS AND GEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE ALSO QUITE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER BROKEN
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH...CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...AFFECTING EAU...RNH...AND MSP.
IFR/BORDERLINE LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK...WITH FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR OVER
THE SNOWPACK SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS PRESENT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI
AND EASTERN MN...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET WITH CIGS CONTINUING TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. WINDS SSW 10G20 KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities