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000
FXUS63 KMPX 301730
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A low confidence forecast today with regards to precipitation
chances across the forecast area with high confidence for tonight.

High pressure was centered over southern Minnesota early this
morning while a warm front curved from southern South Dakota to
eastern Missouri. Small pockets of dense fog were occurring from the
north metro through Mora, west to around Hutchinson and eastward
along highway 8 in west central Wisconsin. The current forecast has
the situation handled well.

Thunderstorms have been ongoing through the night along and north of
the warm front. Cells now stretch from the southwest corner of
Minnesota to central South Dakota. The problem of the day is how far
northeast will the activity progress. The CAMS are divided with
widely varying solutions ranging from showers spreading all the way
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the late
morning and early afternoon hours (HRRR and HOPWRF) to only a few
showers early this morning across west central through south central
Minnesota with a few more showers developing during the afternoon
across central and southern Minnesota (ARW, NMM, NSSL).

Looking at the forecast fields, the thunderstorms ongoing this
morning are in the zone of best 925-850mb moisture advection, which
correlates to the low level jet. There is also a tight gradient
across this area of negative best LI`s. As the morning progresses,
the low level jet weakens with the moisture transport axis shifting
to along the SD/MN border. The corresponding LI gradient follows
along. There is then a subtle push of these two features into
central and eastern Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon
hours. This would make it seem like the latter WRF solutions would
be more correct. The 300-305k NAM theta surfaces do show strong
upglide and low condensation pressure deficits spreading quickly
into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin today which is why
there is low confidence in the precipitation forecast. It could be
that the aggressive CAMS are acting on the ACCAS that will develop.
The forecast is for low pops across west central through south
central this morning with a slow spread to the Twin Cities during
the afternoon. On a side note, the NAM differential theta-e
advection points to far southern Minnesota for a good area for
thunderstorms. This may be where the storms in southwest Minnesota
end up going later this morning.

Tonight, a vigorous closed upper low will be drooping southeast
across the Northern Plains. The low level moisture transport will
increase from Omaha to the Twin Cities during the night with the
PWAT forecast to double during the night from 0.75 inches to 1.5
inches. Two thunderstorm areas are expected. One will be with the
low level jet and moisture transport (eastern/southern MN and
western WI) while the other will be a bowing line of storms headed
eastward from the Dakotas. These storms will likely be severe during
the late afternoon and evening to our west and may pose a severe
threat for a time as they move into west central Minnesota during
the late evening hours. Categorical pops remain in the forecast.

Little change was made to the high/low temperatures for
today/tonight with upper 70s to lower 80s common today with upper
50s to lower 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The long term concerns are the thunder/severe weather threat for
tuesday and residual shower threat into Wednesday.

Various model solutions show that the shower/thunder threat will
continue into tuesday morning before it wanes through about noon.
timing of surface boundary looks o be late afternoon over east
central MN...and will keep higher pops to the east of the this
boundary into the afternoon/tuesday night. Severe weather threat
will be conditional as to how much heating will take place with
abundant cloud cover expected east of the front. The ECMWF is
slower with the movement of the front and upper trough...which
may limit overall severe weather threat. The higher shear lags the
front and more linear/multicell mode will be expected into the
evening with hail and strong winds a conditional threat into
tuesday evening.

There is some wraparound shower threat into Wednesday as the
trough moves across the area. Instability is weak...so perhaps an
isolated thunder threat. Once again...the ECMWF is more
amplified/slower with the trough and will trend a little more to
this solution for now. The overall pop trend through wednesday
was changed little from earlier forecast.

Wednesday looks to he coolest day this week...as the cool upper
trough moves through. Temperatures will struggle to warm to 70
degrees most areas as clouds will limit overall heating potential.

the extended models diverge some on overall evolution of the
short wave trough...but they have sped up some with the main
shower/thunder threat moving in Friday and Friday night. May see
lingering chances mainly to the eastern part of the cwa as the
upper level jet stream is forecast to buckle and turn to a cooler
regime into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Confidence remains low for this afternoon of thunderstorm
development across western Minnesota. Although confidence is high
enough to limit thunderstorm potential in eastern Minnesota until
later this evening. There remains enough instability to hold onto
VCSH/VCTS at KAXN for this afternoon, but coverage will be
isolated at best. Elsewhere, will keep VFR conditions along with
winds become more south-southeast toward 00z. Confidence remains
high for thunderstorm activity across all of Minnesota late
tonight, and into Tuesday morning (Mainly before 12z), but timing
remains problematic. Will continue the trend of TSRA or VCTS
across western Minnesota in the evening, and after 06z in eastern
Minnesota. West central Wisconsin may not see any thunderstorm
activity until after 09z. The slower movement of the frontal
boundary will lead to additional showers or thunderstorms in
eastern Minnesota by the end of the taf period.

KMSP...

Confidence remains high enough to keep TSRA out of the taf until
after the main aviation push this evening. However, confidence
remains high enough that thunderstorms will affect the airport
overnight, but timing remains problematic. Redevelopment is likely
Tuesday afternoon, but again timing remains problematic. Winds
will slowly become south-southeast this afternoon and continue in
this direction until Tuesday afternoon as the front nears the
airport.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE Night...VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR CIGS. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.
WED...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA. West wind 10 to 15 knots.
THR...VFR. West-Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 292011
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Latest visible satellite and radar imagery show some widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms have managed to develop across
the area. Decent lapse rates remain in place, with MLCAPE values
from 250-1250 J/kg across the area, with the highest values over the
west and south where there was a bit more sunshine. Effective shear
is below 30 kt, and doesn`t look to increase much if at all, so
storms should remain multi-cellular and at best cause small hail and
wind gusts to 30 or 40 mph. The CAMs all did a decent job with the
timing and location of this activity, and all of them suggest a
waning of things between 23Z and 02Z as we start to lose heating and
surface ridging works in from the west. So, kept some chance PoPs
going into the evening, before removing all of them by 9 PM. The
remainder of the short term period looks to be fairly quiet as the
weak surface ridge slides across the area. Re-introduced some chance
PoPs into the west/southwest Monday afternoon as a surface trough
works into the Plains and we begin to see warm advection and the
approach of a nice 850 mb theta-e ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The main forecast concerns deal with the onset of precipitation
Monday night, and how long it will last on Tuesday. Other concerns
deal with temperatures and the changing pattern.

A strong storm system moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest
will intensify as it moves across the Rockies and into the Plains,
Upper Midwest by midweek. Models have been fairly consistent with
timing of the main short wave and strong theta-e advection moving
across Minnesota late Monday night. There should be a large area
of showers and thunderstorms spreading northward which leads to
widespread qpf amounts of 0.50" to 1.00" by Tuesday morning. There
should be a sharp cutoff of the precipitation field Tuesday
morning from southwest to northeast across MPX forecast area due
to the strength of the subsidence on the back side of the short
wave. Although the front will slowly moving eastward across
Minnesota Tuesday, the bulk of the precipitation should occur in
western Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon, and evening. Elsewhere,
lingering spotty showers will be possible in the afternoon in
Minnesota due to increasing lapse rates associated with the cold
pool of the Upper Low.

As the Upper Low slowly fills and moves eastward across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday and Wednesday night,
instability showers or storms are possible, especially in central
Mn where the depth of the moisture is greatest. It will be much
cooler on Wednesday as strong cold air advection leads to highs in
the 60s. Lows Thursday morning could drop into the low to middle
40s in central Mn if skies clear.

After this system departs the area, temperatures will begin to
moderate with another front moving across the area Friday night
and Saturday. Temperatures should begin to rebound into the 70s
and possibly lower 80s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

We`ll continue to see ceilings at most locations through the
afternoon with a fairly extensive cu field across the region in
the lingering cyclonic flow and decent lapse rates. A few SHRA will
likely develop, but tough to say where/when, so kept things VCSH
for now, and can amend if/when things develop and look likely to
impact a location. Thunder isn`t out of the question given the
lapse rates and MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg over a portion of
the area, although the better forcing is generally north/east of
the better instability. Otherwise, we should see things clear out
tonight, and things will then be quiet through the remainder of
the period.

KMSP...TAF reflects expected conditions with fairly good
confidence overall. Main uncertainty is with any precipitation
that may occur this afternoon, and at this point VCSH seems to be
the best way to handle things, with amendments possible if/when
things materialize.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Monday night...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots.
Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 5 to 15
knots.
Tuesday night...VFR. West wind 5 to 10 knots.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...MVFR ceilings and visibilities
possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. West wind 10
to 20 knots.
Thursday...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KMPX 290816
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Confidence is low with the forecast this morning with regards to
precipitation chances. We currently have an upper low over central
Minnesota that is moving very slowly east. Cloud top cooling has
been occurring around the low since midnight with showers increasing
in coverage and intensity across portions of central Minnesota as
well as southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. It`s the
showers in central Minnesota that are troubling. The CAMS are having
a tough time with the showers with several indicating them too far
north. Others that use a hot start fade the showers in 1 to 2 hours
which has not been the case. Therefore, opted to drive scattered
showers all the way southeast through the Twin Cities early this
morning before allowing things to diminish some off to the east.

This then feeds into what happens from late morning onward as more
showers are shown in the CAMS developing from Alexandria all the way
down to the Iowa border and then back northeast across west central
Wisconsin. Feel a little more confident about these showers given
the steep lapse rates seen from the SFC-700 mb along with a skinny
CAPE profile. The showers shouldn`t be too widespread with isolated
wording used in the forecast. The showers will fade early this
evening will the loss of daytime heating and ridging aloft spreading
in from the west.

It will be dry from late evening onward. A concern overnight is the
potential for fog development, especially from central Minnesota
through west central Wisconsin. These areas have the lowest temp/dew
point spreads under weak high pressure. You also have the damp
ground from the recent rains. Indicated areas of fog developing
after midnight for the aforementioned areas.

Highs forecast for today remain on the high side of most guidance.
The forecast is closer to the NAM then anything else given some
breaks in the cloudiness during the afternoon along with the cold
trough at 850 mb moving east of the area. Little change to the lows
forecast for tonight with around 50 in the central Minnesota to the
upper 50s in the Twin Cities on southward.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The longer term concerns are the development and movement of the
next closed low moving through the northern stream Tuesday
through wednesday night.

initially on monday...waa/theta-e advection lifts northeast
across the southwest portion of the cwa by Monday evening. We
will likely see at least some elevated thunder develop perhaps as
early as Monday morning over the far southwest per latest trend
of the NAM WRF and ECMWF which both paint some light qpf into
southwest MN before 18z. Instability increases with the surface
warm front lifting northeast into southwest MN monday night. This
should generate more widespread activity along with some threat
large hail and wind gusts into Monday night.

On Tuesday...CIPS Analog guidance is indicating at least a chance
of severe weather as the trough swings east along with a surface
cold front. The 00z gfs was showing moderate instability
developing and increasing shear as the trough approaches. Only
real limiting factor will be cloud cover/heating concerns with
possible morning activity lingering. This shifts east tuesday
night and should take any significant thunder threat with it.
Rainfall for the Monday night through Tuesday night period
approaches the 1 inch mark for most of the cwa. With PW`s
increasing to 1.5 inches...this looks feasible considering the
amount of forcing indicated. As the trough exits the area
wednesday...we still could see some showers/perhaps some isolated
thunder as it moves through into Wednesday night.

The warmest day of the upcoming forecast looks to be Memorial Day
with some lower 80s indicated. We should see plenty of sunshine at
least early in the day...with increasing mid/high level clouds
from the west during the afternoon. After that...we trend to
below normal through Thursday with the passage of the trough.
Then warmer conditions develop with increasing sunshine. Some
chance of showers/thunder returning to the area next Friday night
into Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF bring in a frontal system
then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

There is a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings out there this evening. We
think some of these low clouds will expand tonight and could even
lower with time. We are not completely sold on this scenario,
especially given the time of year, but the moisture will hang
around tonight and any amount of nocturnal cooling should help
keep the low clouds in place. Our computer models disagree on how
low the clouds get tonight, adding to the uncertainty.

KMSP...

MVFR conditions are possible late tonight and early tomorrow
morning given all the residual moisture low in the atmosphere.
It`s also possible the airport bounces from VFR to MVFR tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and -TSRA late. Winds S 5-10KT.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR, -TSRA likely. Winds S 10-20KT.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance of -SHRA. Winds W 10-20KT.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 290037
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
737 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Concerns are thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening and
another threat tomorrow afternoon.

Upper low is on the move and is now into southeastern South Dakota.
Models open it up as a wave later tonight and the trough axis should
be out of western Wisconsin Sunday mid morning. Brief upper ridging
takes place, but with relatively zonal flow from the Pacific coast
to the Upper Midwest, it appears that a weak short wave will move
across the Dakotas Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile a surface low was just north of Sioux City, with a front
extending northeast to the southeast Twin Cities metro and then
toward Rice Lake. Modest instability has been evident across
southern Minnesota into Wisconsin, and with a bit of clearing late
this morning, showers and a few storms quickly developed. With not
much shear, decent low level lapse rates and some instability, a
boundary in the area, and upper low just west of us, it is possible
there may be a funnel cloud or two and maybe even a landspout
tornado. This threat will taper off early this evening.

North of the boundary, an abundance of low clouds will keep
temperatures from dropping too much tonight. Lows should mainly be
55-60. There is enough low level moisture so that it will take quite
some time before clearing takes place, most likely Sunday
morning.

The clearing tomorrow morning will open the door for the potential
of more storms Sunday afternoon as the next short wave arrives. A
variety of models show more instability late tomorrow afternoon. In
fact, there looks to be more CAPE tomorrow than today. Moisture will
be sufficient, especially in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Thus
there may be more storms Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main forecast concern is timing of Monday nights` precipitation
chances.

Dry conditions should prevail Sunday night through Monday
afternoon as a dry west-northwest flow continues, and moisture
remains limited. There is some uncertainty late Monday afternoon
in southwest/south central Minnesota as moisture begins to return
ahead of a storm system across the Rockies. Depending upon the
speed and moisture return, parts of southwest/south central
Minnesota could see a few thunderstorms by the late afternoon.
Otherwise, the bulk of the precipitation should hold off until
late Monday night, and Tuesday as strong moisture advection and a
negatively tilted trough moves across the Upper Midwest. I
wouldn`t be surprised to see severe thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon in west central/southwest/south central Minnesota based
on shear and MLCAPE values. Behind this system, a cool/cold air
mass moves in, and last for a few days. This cool period has been
advertised by the models but the strength of the colder air
remains questionable. Models have lowered highs by
Thursday/Friday, but these numbers could be lower if more of the
air mass originates in north central Canada, vs, the Canadian
Rockies. Some of the GEFS plumes on temperatures by late in the
week have lows back in the 40s in the Twin Cities, with highs in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Isolated to scattered showers will continue for the next several
hours, but outside of KEAU, there shouldn`t be thunderstorms near
the TAF sites. In addition to the rain, there is a mix of VFR/MVFR
ceilings. We think some of these low clouds will expand tonight
and could even lower with time. We are not completely sold on this
scenario, especially given the time of year, but the moisture will
hang around tonight and any amount of nocturnal cooling should
help keep the low clouds in place. Our computer models disagree on
how much clearing occurs tonight.

KMSP...

While thunderstorms are no longer a threat, light rain and
MVFR conditions will likely linger through most of the night. It`s
also possible the airport bounces from VFR to MVFR tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and -TSRA late. Winds S 5-10KT.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR, -TSRA likely. Winds S 10-20KT.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance of -SHRA. Winds W 10-20KT.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 281059
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The short term concern remains the extent of shower/thunder threat
today and tonight.

Water vapor imagery showing negatively tilted upper trough lifting
slowly northeast. Moisture feed continues into southern MN ahead of
the trough.  Various short term hires models continue to show slug
of showers/isolated thunder moving through Iowa into southern MN
will continue its northward trek through the morning. Will
continue high pop trend through the day...as upper trough continues
to lift northeast. Surface boundary is rather diffuse and appears
to be moving into far southern MN early this morning.  Remnants of
yesterdays boundary appears to be weakening further into west
central WI.  Here some fog developed as dewpoints remain high.
This is expected to dissipate as showers lifts into the area later
this morning. Thunder threat will lift north during the morning as
well...though should remain rather limited.

This afternoon...a weak surface low will develop along the boundary
in southern MN and will be the focus of more concentrated thunder
threat.  Appears some threat of isolated severe with large
hail/strong wind gusts associated with he stronger storms mainly
across southern third of MN into west central WI. Some NST/brief
weak tornado concern as well...depending on how much heating and
destabilization takes place. The namwrf showed best chance of this
occurring was south central MN during the afternoon/early evening as
the surface low moves east along with the front.  Will have to
monitor radar trends closely into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
held down in the 60s once again over the northwest cwa as cloud cover
remains over the area. some lower and possible mid 70s into western
Wisconsin if modest breaks develop.

The trough swings east tonight and should take most of the
shower/thunder threat with it.  We will trail pops off to the west
during the night along with ending any thunder threat after
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The balance of the holiday weekend is not looking too bad as a
drying trend ensues on Sunday in the wake of the upper low headed
our way this morning from the central plains. Memorial Day is
pretty much dry across the entire forecast area. The main concern
with Monday is how fast will showers and thunderstorms return
across west central through south central Minnesota. The GFS is
dry in these areas until Monday evening. This is even drier than
the 27.18z run. The ECMWF on the other hand remains a fast
outlier with some activity possible in the aforementioned areas
Monday afternoon. The 28.00z run is even faster than the 27.12z
run. Hence, the two models are going in opposite directions. The
GEM is more of the middle ground with some precipitation seen.
This speed difference between the ECMWF and GFS is tied to a
vigorous upper low/short wave moving our way from the northern
Rockies on Monday. The ECMWF is a little faster aloft and the
height fields are much more negatively tilted over those on the
GFS. In the end, allowed from some small pops to develop in the
afternoon from west central through south central MN. Highs/lows
both days will be some 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

The wave approaching from the northern Rockies on Monday will
take until late Thursday to clear the Upper Mississippi Valley
region. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be a wet period with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. A surface low and
associated cold front will be moving slowly across Minnesota
Tuesday afternoon and evening which may result in some of the
convection being strong to severe if sufficient breaks in the
cloud cover occur allowing for destabilization. Rain amounts from
Monday night through Tuesday night will likely fall into the 0.50
to 1.5 inch range with the heavier amounts tied to the convection.

The balance of the long term (Wednesday through Friday) will see
increasing northerly flow across the region as a strong ridge
builds in the western United States. This will bring our temperatures
back closer to seasonal levels with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s common. A few instability showers can`t be ruled out as
well across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area due to
the cold air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main concern is the threat for thunder today. Some isolated
thunder to the southwest near krwf...but this should wane through
the morning. Two areas of showers one associated with the main
upper circulation near omaha and another lifting to the northeast
over western Wisconsin. This will affect mainly western wi area
this morning. Fog issue should gradually dissipate through 16z-17z
over WI with cigs lifting from lifr/ifr to mvfr by 17z.
Redeveloping shra/tsra expected into the afternoon early
evening....mainly affecting the southern area. Will mention tsra
at keau/krwf/keau for this threat. Expect lifting cigs at least
early in evening as the winds turn more nw. Some threat of mvfr
cigs in the wake of the system...with ifr threat at keau late
tonight. Light winds becoming more east/southeast and then more
n-nw with fropa developing from west to east.

KMSP...
MVFR conditions with sub-1700ft cigs to prevail much of the
morning. a passing shower to the east with r3edeve3lopment into
the afternoon/evening as the upper trough lifts out. Will mention
tempo thunder after 21z but should be limited in overall coverage
and mainly to the south and east.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280833
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The short term concern remains the extent of shower/thunder threat
today and tonight.

Water vapor imagery showing negatively tilted upper trough lifting
slowly northeast. Moisture feed continues into southern MN ahead of
the trough.  Various short term hires models continue to show slug
of showers/isolated thunder moving through Iowa into southern MN
will continue its northward trek through the morning. Will
continue high pop trend through the day...as upper trough continues
to lift northeast. Surface boundary is rather diffuse and appears
to be moving into far southern MN early this morning.  Remnants of
yesterdays boundary appears to be weakening further into west
central WI.  Here some fog developed as dewpoints remain high.
This is expected to dissipate as showers lifts into the area later
this morning. Thunder threat will lift north during the morning as
well...though should remain rather limited.

This afternoon...a weak surface low will develop along the boundary
in southern MN and will be the focus of more concentrated thunder
threat.  Appears some threat of isolated severe with large
hail/strong wind gusts associated with he stronger storms mainly
across southern third of MN into west central WI. Some NST/brief
weak tornado concern as well...depending on how much heating and
destabilization takes place. The namwrf showed best chance of this
occurring was south central MN during the afternoon/early evening as
the surface low moves east along with the front.  Will have to
monitor radar trends closely into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
held down in the 60s once again over the northwest cwa as cloud cover
remains over the area. some lower and possible mid 70s into western
Wisconsin if modest breaks develop.

The trough swings east tonight and should take most of the
shower/thunder threat with it.  We will trail pops off to the west
during the night along with ending any thunder threat after
midnight.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The balance of the holiday weekend is not looking too bad as a
drying trend ensues on Sunday in the wake of the upper low headed
our way this morning from the central plains. Memorial Day is
pretty much dry across the entire forecast area. The main concern
with Monday is how fast will showers and thunderstorms return
across west central through south central Minnesota. The GFS is
dry in these areas until Monday evening. This is even drier than
the 27.18z run. The ECMWF on the other hand remains a fast
outlier with some activity possible in the aforementioned areas
Monday afternoon. The 28.00z run is even faster than the 27.12z
run. Hence, the two models are going in opposite directions. The
GEM is more of the middle ground with some precipitation seen.
This speed difference between the ECMWF and GFS is tied to a
vigorous upper low/short wave moving our way from the northern
Rockies on Monday. The ECMWF is a little faster aloft and the
height fields are much more negatively tilted over those on the
GFS. In the end, allowed from some small pops to develop in the
afternoon from west central through south central MN. Highs/lows
both days will be some 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

The wave approaching from the northern Rockies on Monday will
take until late Thursday to clear the Upper Mississippi Valley
region. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be a wet period with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. A surface low and
associated cold front will be moving slowly across Minnesota
Tuesday afternoon and evening which may result in some of the
convection being strong to severe if sufficient breaks in the
cloud cover occur allowing for destabilization. Rain amounts from
Monday night through Tuesday night will likely fall into the 0.50
to 1.5 inch range with the heavier amounts tied to the convection.

The balance of the long term (Wednesday through Friday) will see
increasing northerly flow across the region as a strong ridge
builds in the western United States. This will bring our temperatures
back closer to seasonal levels with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s common. A few instability showers can`t be ruled out as
well across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area due to
the cold air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The next batch of more concentrated showers will lift north into
the area from the south overnight, and affect the TAF sites
between 09z and 17z. There will likely be some isolated thunder,
but probability/coverage at any one site is too low for inclusion
in the TAF. Once the precip starts, expect it to be pretty dreary
until we see breaks in the precip /and possibly even scattering
clouds/ during the afternoon. IFR/MVFR conditions will prevail
through Saturday morning. Those breaks could fuel afternoon
thunderstorm development however...especially closer to the
surface low over southwest MN near KRWF. Light north/northeast to
variable winds will become south/southwest Saturday.

KMSP...
Expect MVFR conditions with sub-1700ft cigs to prevail through
Saturday morning. Area of showers looks to arrive around/after
11z Sat. We do have a chance to scour out the MVFR deck on
Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low. Could also see
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/eve.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday...VFR, but brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. West wind 5 to 15 knots.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 280439
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...for 06z aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Things look to remain unsettled through the short term period as the
surface boundary continues to linger across the region. Current slug
of precipitation should shift north of most of the area this evening
as the shortwave helping to drive it pushes north. The next feature
of interest can be seen over the central Plains in water vapor
imagery, rotating around the main upper low. This looks to help
drive another area of showers with perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms north into the area late tonight into Saturday
morning. We`ll eventually see the primary surface low work toward
the area by Saturday evening. Certainly cannot go with any
completely dry time frame through the period given lingering
elevated instability and continued southerly flow of moisture, but
this evening into the overnight appears to be the best time frame
for that possibility. The CAM guidance is in decent agreement on
this idea as well, and doesn`t really bring a more consolidated area
of precipitation back into the area until Saturday morning, with
that then continuing for much of the day, which makes sense given
the timing of the upper level wave and approaching surface low.
Temperatures could be tricky on Saturday if we are able to see any
decent breaks in cloud cover, since readings could quickly surge
above forecast values for a short time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Confidence remains low on timing and how widespread the
thunderstorm activity remains for Saturday night, through Monday.
However, there remains enough consistency to lower chances once
the surface low moves out of the area late Saturday night, with a
broad area of drier westerlies behind this system on Sunday,
Sunday night. It still looks relativity good for outdoor
activities on Sunday and most of Monday.

By Monday evening, a strong storm system that will be moving
onshore in the Pacific Northwest this weekend, will begin to
spread deeper moisture northward across the Plains, and into the
Upper Midwest by Monday. However, initial dry air mass, and some
timing problems associated with the system moving onshore this
weekend, will lead to some uncertainties of timing for the next
batch of widespread rainfall. Although confidence is high for
another widespread rainfall event early next week, have kept
chances from 45 to 65% Monday night through Tuesday night. The
amount of jet energy and moisture with this system should lead to
another widespread 1-2" rainfall event by Wednesday morning.

The upper air pattern will begin to change from south-southwest,
to a more northwest-north flow by late next week. Depending upon
the strength of a deepening trough developing late next week, will
depend upon how cool temperature will play out. As with a pattern
change of this significances, deep moisture and instability
parameters will lower, so severe weather chances will diminish.

The latest probabilistic forecast of the GEFS /Ensemble of the
GFS/ for the 6-14 day period does show an anomalous upper trough
deepening across the eastern United States. This type of pattern
is also conducive for much drier conditions for early June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The next batch of more concentrated showers will lift north into
the area from the south overnight, and affect the TAF sites
between 09z and 17z. There will likely be some isolated thunder,
but probability/coverage at any one site is too low for inclusion
in the TAF. Once the precip starts, expect it to be pretty dreary
until we see breaks in the precip /and possibly even scattering
clouds/ during the afternoon. IFR/MVFR conditions will prevail
through Saturday morning. Those breaks could fuel afternoon
thunderstorm development however...especially closer to the
surface low over southwest MN near KRWF. Light north/northeast to
variable winds will become south/southwest Saturday.

KMSP...
Expect MVFR conditions with sub-1700ft cigs to prevail through
Saturday morning. Area of showers looks to arrive around/after
11z Sat. We do have a chance to scour out the MVFR deck on
Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low. Could also see
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/eve.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday...VFR, but brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. West wind 5 to 15 knots.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS





000
FXUS63 KMPX 272030
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Things look to remain unsettled through the short term period as the
surface boundary continues to linger across the region. Current slug
of precipitation should shift north of most of the area this evening
as the shortwave helping to drive it pushes north. The next feature
of interest can be seen over the central Plains in water vapor
imagery, rotating around the main upper low. This looks to help
drive another area of showers with perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms north into the area late tonight into Saturday
morning. We`ll eventually see the primary surface low work toward
the area by Saturday evening. Certainly cannot go with any
completely dry time frame through the period given lingering
elevated instability and continued southerly flow of moisture, but
this evening into the overnight appears to be the best time frame
for that possibility. The CAM guidance is in decent agreement on
this idea as well, and doesn`t really bring a more consolidated area
of precipitation back into the area until Saturday morning, with
that then continuing for much of the day, which makes sense given
the timing of the upper level wave and approaching surface low.
Temperatures could be tricky on Saturday if we are able to see any
decent breaks in cloud cover, since readings could quickly surge
above forecast values for a short time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Confidence remains low on timing and how widespread the
thunderstorm activity remains for Saturday night, through Monday.
However, there remains enough consistency to lower chances once
the surface low moves out of the area late Saturday night, with a
broad area of drier westerlies behind this system on Sunday,
Sunday night. It still looks relativity good for outdoor
activities on Sunday and most of Monday.

By Monday evening, a strong storm system that will be moving
onshore in the Pacific Northwest this weekend, will begin to
spread deeper moisture northward across the Plains, and into the
Upper Midwest by Monday. However, initial dry air mass, and some
timing problems associated with the system moving onshore this
weekend, will lead to some uncertainties of timing for the next
batch of widespread rainfall. Although confidence is high for
another widespread rainfall event early next week, have kept
chances from 45 to 65% Monday night through Tuesday night. The
amount of jet energy and moisture with this system should lead to
another widespread 1-2" rainfall event by Wednesday morning.

The upper air pattern will begin to change from south-southwest,
to a more northwest-north flow by late next week. Depending upon
the strength of a deepening trough developing late next week, will
depend upon how cool temperature will play out. As with a pattern
change of this significances, deep moisture and instability
parameters will lower, so severe weather chances will diminish.

The latest probabilistic forecast of the GEFS /Ensemble of the
GFS/ for the 6-14 day period does show an anomalous upper trough
deepening across the eastern United States. This type of pattern
is also conducive for much drier conditions for early June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

MVFR and some IFR will predominate through he period as the
surface trough lingers over the area and a few weak shortwaves
move through. Main windows for poor conditions look to be this
afternoon, with some improvement from late afternoon into this
evening, then again late tonight and Saturday morning. Stuck
fairly close to timing of LAMP guidance, but in general did not go
quite as pessimistic with the specifics. Thunder is a possibility,
but doesn`t look sufficiently likely to include at this point,
especially with the better chances for that looking like they`d
occur with the precipitation late tonight/Saturday morning.

KMSP...Have reasonable confidence in the overall forecast and
timing, but do believe it`s possible that conditions could be a
bit worse with both ceiling and visibility in the 09Z-15Z time
period, so subsequent forecasts may need to adjust.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Saturday night...MVFR ceilings possible. Northwest wind 5 to 10
knots.
Sunday...VFR, but brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. West wind 5 to 15 knots.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...





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